Eric Berger

In brief: We sincerely hope everyone is enjoying a bit of relaxation over the Labor Day Weekend in Houston. As meteorologists, of course, when the weather is weather-ing, we’ll be here to cover things regardless. And we will continue to see additional showers and thunderstorms today, particularly south of Interstate 10. Also, it really does appear as though fall’s first front arrives next weekend. Cannot. Wait.

Labor Day

We are seeing the development of widespread showers over southern parts of the Houston region this morning, in locations such as Texas City and Galveston Island. As a low pressure system wobbles offshore, the greatest threat of heavy rainfall now lies primarily to the south of the Houston area (rather than to the east, as it was earlier this weekend). Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda counties are at the highest risk of heavy rainfall today and tonight, and so we are maintaining a Stage 1 flood alert in effect for those locations.

For the bulk of the Houston metro area, today will bring an ongoing chance of showers and thunderstorms. Most locations have perhaps a 50 percent chance of seeing rain today, which is something to keep in mind if you have Labor Day plans. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the upper 80s to about 90 degrees.

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday

We’ll continue to see healthy rain chances for these days, but my sense is that the threat of locally heavy rainfall should diminish a bit, even for coastal areas. Sometime later this week, perhaps by Thursday afternoon or evening, we should start to see a clearing pattern. Until then, we can probably expect partly to mostly cloudy days with highs around 90 degrees.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We should see mostly sunny skies for the weekend in Houston, with much diminished rain chances, at 20 percent or less. Friday and Saturday should be fairly warm, with highs in thew low 90s or thereabouts. However, our confidence is increasing in the arrival of a cool front on Sunday or Sunday night. This does appear to be a bonafide cool front, with a decent push of drier air, but since we’re still in early September I want to temper expectations.

After the front’s passage we will see dewpoints fall, and noticeably drier air. High temperatures are still going to reach the upper 80s, with mostly sunny skies. But mornings, evenings, and nights should feel pleasant through about Tuesday or so. Inland locations will probably see nighttime temperatures in the 60s on Sunday and Monday night. This would be a couple of weeks earlier than normal for Houston’s first real fall front, so it is definitely something to savor.

Tropics

There’s activity out there, but not a whole lot I would be particularly concerned about at this time. Stay tuned to The Eyewall for in-depth updates.

In brief: As expected, the Houston region will continue to see healthy rain chances and lower temperatures for the Labor Day Weekend. With the heaviest rains mostly concentrated near the coast, a Stage 1 flood alert remains in effect for coastal counties. Also, could we really see our first fall front about a week from now?

This is just a short post on Sunday morning to say that our forecast for Labor Day Weekend, and beyond, is more or less on track. A large area of low pressure offshore will continue to push showers and thunderstorms inland for the next several days.

These rains will likely be most intense right along the coast, in places such as Galveston Island and points eastward to Port Arthur. For this reason, we are continuing to maintain a State 1 flood alert for coastal counties. This simply means that, in the stronger storms, there is the potential for some street flooding. We do not anticipate widespread, significant issues.

Rain chances will be lower for areas located inland of Interstate 10, but the entire metro area will have the possibility of seeing showers and thunderstorms into the middle part of next week as the pressure system continues to wobble near the upper Texas coast.

This means that our skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy, and this should keep daytime high temperatures in the vicinity of the upper 80s to 90 degrees through next Wednesday or Thursday. Sunnier weather should arrive by the end of this week, with diminished rain chances.

I don’t want to sell this too hard, but much of our model guidance is continuing to advertise the possibility of a cool front arriving by next Sunday or Monday. It’s far enough away to still have some doubts about whether this will happen, but it’s not impossible that we’ll see a couple of nights in the 60s with some drier air. I almost hate to write about it, because I don’t want to jinx it. I’ll have more on the likelihood of this front in tomorrow’s post.

Tropics

As for the tropics, we’re continuing to watch the Gulf of Mexico low pressure system. Because of its proximity to land, further development into a tropical depression is unlikely, but possible. There’s also a tropical wave the Atlantic Ocean nearing the Caribbean Sea. Not much has changed with this system. It’s possible that a tropical low eventually gets into the Gulf of Mexico, or it’s possible that nothing ever comes of this tropical wave. We’ll just need to keep watching for a few more days to see what happens. Matt will have more on this on The Eyewall this afternoon.

In brief: Houston faces a wet Labor Day Weekend, but our flooding concerns are clustered primarily along the coast. Mostly cloudy skies will keep a lid on temperatures over the holiday weekend, keeping things dare I say almost comfortable outside most of the time? We are also tracking the tropics as they begin to heat up.

Good morning. We’re providing updates through this weekend on Space City Weather due to the ongoing potential for heavy rainfall through early next week. However, our Stage 1 flood alert remains in effect only for coastal counties, from Galveston County eastward. This is where our modeling continues to indicate the potential for some street flooding over the next several days. For example, here’s where the likelihood of heavy rainfall is greatest for today:

The rains into next week will be driven by an upper-level low pressure system lingering off the Texas coast. As we discussed on Friday, there is a small possibility this system develops tropical characteristics with a surface center of low pressure over the Labor Day weekend, but most likely its main impact will be as a rainmaker for coastal areas.

As often happens with these systems, the heavy rainfall is clustered mostly offshore. But areas such as Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula will be well within the threat area, and may pick up 5 or even 10 inches of rainfall through the middle of next week. It won’t rain all of the time, but coastal counties should expect a pretty decent soaking through about next Wednesday.

As for areas further inland, including most of the Houston metro area, showers will be hit or miss this weekend. Rain chances will depend on how far you live from the coast, but over the Labor Day weekend you can at least expect a healthy chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm each day. One benefit of the cloudy skies this weekend is cooler temperatures, particularly for the end of August and into early September. Highs, for the most part, will be in the upper 80s to about 90 degrees each day—and even cooler closer to the coast. Often, we’re 10 degrees hotter at this time of year.

Tropics

We’re starting to see activity pick up in the tropics. If you want a full rundown, please check The Eyewall later this morning, where Matt will have a comprehensive update on everything we know before noon today. In addition to the aforementioned system in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, we’re also closely monitoring a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic. It will move into the Caribbean Sea early next week.

There it will find blazing hot seas, but at this time most of our modeling guidance is not too aggressive about developing it into a tropical storm or hurricane early next week. However, toward the end of next week this wave/tropical system will be nearing the western edge of the Caribbean Sea. After that point it could move into the Gulf of Mexico. We’re talking about a period 7 to 10 days from now, so uncertainty is very high. There’s not a whole lot we can say about what happens at that point, so we’ll continue to watch it.

Have a great Labor Day Weekend, everyone. We’ll be back with another post on Sunday morning to assess things.

In brief: On Friday afternoon the National Hurricane Center began tracking an area of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. To put this threat into perspective, we’re going to share content published earlier today on The Eyewall. Though a serious system is not likely to develop, locally heavy rain and flash flooding are a good bet along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana into next week

We’ve been discussing it all week on The Eyewall, but low pressure has now officially formed in the Gulf, with a surface low analyzed offshore of Galveston and Sabine Pass. The National Hurricane Center now highlights this area with a 20 percent chance of development.

The surface low is rather broad, so it’s not as if we have a rapidly intensifying tropical system off the coast. But we have low pressure in the Gulf, which is always something of note. Any development risk from this is very low-end in terms of winds and waves. But in terms of rain, this will be a source for some serious coastal rainfall in the coming days, development or no development. Rain totals through next week may tally up an additional 5 to 10 inches between Galveston and Vermilion Bay in Louisiana.

While there are no flood watches posted currently (except in the New Orleans and Baton Rouge areas), there is some potential for flooding to occur in coastal counties and parishes. Places like Galveston, Port Arthur, and Cameron through Morgan City and New Orleans could definitely see at least localized street flooding crop up. With a surface low now offshore, most of the rain will likely consolidate around that feature, meaning that inland places like Houston and perhaps Lake Charles see less rain, less often.

This will be a very coastal-focused feature. The low should meander in the days ahead offshore. Thankfully, upper level conditions aren’t super conducive for development, so again any organization or strengthening would probably be very sluggish and the ceiling from this is rather low it seems. As the system meanders, it could end up onshore in Louisiana or back toward the middle Texas coast, so proximity to land will also act against its development.

Bottom line: This is not a major concern, but it bears some watching and it will, at the least, deliver locally heavy rain and flash flooding potential on the Texas and Louisiana coasts.