Eric Berger

In brief: There’s a lot going on in today’s forecast, with the possibility of some storms tonight and Tuesday morning ahead of our region’s next front. Then we’ve got an uncertain weekend forecast and the likelihood of a tropical storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico several days from now. We tackle it all!

Stormy setup

Unlike the previous fronts we’ve experienced this fall, a weak front that remains on track for late tonight should bring a line of showers and storms with it as it passes through Houston. The setup is not perfect, so at this time I would only rate it as a 5 out of 10 on the “excitable dogs scale,” but we could definitely see some thunderstorms and strong winds, along with the slight potential for some hail and possibly a tornado. Conditions for storm formation will be more favorable north of Houston.

In terms of timing, I’d anticipate the storms will reach College Station roughly around midnight, push into the Katy area and Montgomery County around 2 to 4 am, reach central Houston around 3 to 6 am, and push down to the coast by around 6 to 8 am. Note these times are approximate. While the storms should be ebbing by rush hour on Tuesday, I cannot rule out impacts. Some areas may pick up as much as 2 or 3 inches of rainfall as the storms pass from northwest to southeast.

Monday

Today, before the front tonight, we’ll see very warm and windy conditions. We’re talking highs in the mid- to upper-80s for most locations, with very high humidity. Winds will be even gustier than we experienced on Sunday, blowing generally from the south at 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph or perhaps even a bit higher near the coast. There will be the possibility of scattered showers today, much like the region experienced on Sunday. Tonight will be very muggy ahead of the arrival of the front.

Tuesday

After the front passes we may see some lingering showers on Tuesday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Expect daytime temperatures generally in the low- to mid-70s. This is not a particularly strong front, and it will only briefly move offshore, so the period of dry air will probably last from around Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will vary depending on how far you live from the coast, but most of the area should see the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday

As the front moves back onshore Wednesday, humidity levels will quickly recover during the daytime. Skies will be partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Winds will be light. Rain chances are low, but not non-existent. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will only drop into the lower 70s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days with highs around 80 degrees, and mild and muggy nights. Rain chances each day will be on the order of 20 percent.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

It’s possible that another fairly weak front arrives for this weekend, but I don’t have great confidence in that part of the forecast. In any case, it might be a situation where inland areas see some cooler nights and the coast remains warm and muggy. As a best guess, I’ll predict highs of around 80 degrees with low-ish rain chances for this weekend.

Most of our guidance predicts a stronger, truly fall-like front to arrive sometime during the middle of next week, but that’s far enough into the future that I’m not fully confident in predicting it will happen. But there does appear to be a fairly strong signal for colder weather toward the end of next week. It is November, after all.

Tropics

I cannot believe we’re talking about the tropics in early November, but here we are. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area in the Caribbean Sea as a potential tropical cyclone, and if this system develops (which is likely) it will become named Rafael. At first glance, the forecast track might appear to be fairly concerning for Texas, with a tropical storm in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

There is a lot of uncertainty over this system’s track over the next week. However, if the storm does make it to the central Gulf, it will find fairly robust wind shear and dry air, which should inhibit strengthening. It would be historically unprecedented to have a tropical storm make it to Texas at this time of year, and much of the modeling guidance keeps the storm away, so it’s doubtful we have much to worry about. My sense is that we may see some higher seas by this weekend offshore, but probably not too many other impacts. Regardless, we’ll be watching closely and keeping you updated.

In brief: After a long dry spell Houston has finally undergone a pattern change, and we’re now in a period in which there will be a healthy chance of rain for at least the next five or six days. For today, our latest modeling suggests that rainfall will wind down late this afternoon, but there’s a risk of scattered showers at sunset for some locations north of Interstate 10. A weak front next week should bring drier air to the region.

A few housekeeping notes

First of all, if you missed our monthly Q&A we published on Wednesday, be sure and check it out. Dwight Silverman collects questions and every month Matt and I dig into the mailbag and respond to your weather-related queries. Heck, I’d even take space questions if you’ve got them, and I’m sure Matt would love nothing more than to write long encomiums about Rutgers basketball if readers so desire. Which I’m sure you don’t. Because how could you?

I also want to thank everyone who came to the first-ever Space Happy Hour last night at Space Center Houston. It was great to meet so many fans of the site. As a quick reminder, we did not hold a “Fall Day” celebration this year because we’re going to hold a bigger event next year to mark the onset of fall and also the 10th anniversary (!) of the founding of Space City Weather.

If you’re wondering why this post is late this morning, it’s because I’m torturing—I mean training—for the Houston marathon again this year and I had to knock out 12 miles. Let me tell you, running that in 100 percent humidity really, really sucks. Why didn’t I wait for cooler weather this weekend? Because there is no cooler or drier weather coming this weekend. Finally, we’re going to post our winter outlook next Monday, so be on the lookout. We are going to have a winter in Houston this year, right? RIGHT?!?

Thursday

Happy Halloween! I hope your kids aren’t wearing tight-fitting plastic costumes this evening, because those little guys and gals are going to be heading out into some pretty thick humidity. The question is, will it be raining at around sunset?

As of about 7:30 am there’s a fairly robust line of showers to the west and southwest of Houston, and I expect those to move generally eastward today. Throughout the day most of the region should at least see some intermittent showers, with parts of the area likely seeing brief downpours. When it’s not raining we’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine, with high temperatures likely in the low- to mid-80s.

By late this afternoon and early evening, shower activity should be winding down. However there could be some remnant boundaries, along which there will be the potential for some additional showers and thunderstorms between 6 pm and 10 pm. I expect this activity to be fairly scattered, and located north of Interstate 10. So it’s something to be aware of this evening before heading too far from home. No candy is worth tempting fate with lightning.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We’ll see partly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s through the weekend. Each day will likely bring intermittent light to moderate showers, possibly with a few thunderstorms. We don’t expect any washouts, but our overall wetter pattern should persist. So have an umbrella handy and a contingency for any outdoor plans if a shower pops up overhead. For the most part, I expect these showers to pass fairly quickly. Nights remain warm and humid, generally in the mid-70s.

Next week

Oh my friends, I wish I could offer you a clear-cut forecast for next week. But as of yet, such a thing does not exist. Generally speaking, I expect a fair bit of rain on Monday evening and Tuesday of next week, ahead of a front. There’s the potential for areas to pick up 1 to 2 inches with this system, which will do some nice work on the drought if it develops. Then a weak front probably moves through on Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing some drier air and cooler temperatures. For now my expectations are that we might see some lows down around 60 degrees, but that could go higher or possibly lower. There’s a decent chance we get a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air by next weekend, but I certainly would not count on that. Not at all.

In brief: As the amount of moisture in our atmosphere increases, we’ll see higher humidity and improving rain chances from today through early next week. It won’t feel like November outside, that’s for sure. As for Halloween, we’ll see daytime showers on Thursday, but I’m hopeful that there will be some clearing by the early evening hours when the kiddos are out and about.

Big picture

With the robust southerly winds we’ve seen over the last couple of days, plenty of moisture has returned to our atmosphere. We’ve already felt that with rising humidity levels, and the sticky air will be with us until at least next Monday or Tuesday as a southerly flow prevails. However, this fertile atmosphere will also set out a welcome mat for a (very) weak front that will sag into the area over the next couple of days.

This environment will support the region’s first widespread, and meaningful rainfall in nearly two months. One should not expect complete relief from the drought-like conditions that have developed over Houston; however any rainfall at this point will be very much appreciated by our region’s flora and fauna. I’m hopeful that most of Houston and surrounding areas will get about 1 inch of rain.

Wednesday

As we look at the radar this morning, for the first time in what seems like forever there is a decent amount of offshore activity. Over the next couple of hours we will see the development of showers on shore. This activity will be fairly scattered, and favor the eastern half of the area. Rain chances are about 50 percent, and we cannot rule out a few thunderstorms. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds will blow from the south, with some gusts up to 20 mph or a bit higher. Low temperatures tonight will be muggy, in the mid-70s for most locations.

All Hallows’ Eve

Expect another humid, partly sunny day with highs in the mid-80s. Rain coverage will probably be greater on Thursday than Wednesday, with the potential for some thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. We expect to see a diminution in shower activity as evening comes on, but there may be some lingering showers near sunset (6:35 pm CT) as darkness comes on. Our advice? If it’s raining when you want to go trick-or-treating, just wait a bit as shower activity should subside. It will be plenty humid outside during the evening hours, with overnight lows eventually dropping into the mid-70s.

Friday

A day a lot like Thursday, albeit possibly with slightly less shower coverage.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring partly sunny skies, highs in the mid-80s, and plenty of humidity. With the state of the atmosphere I’d expect a decent chance of showers each day, although it’s difficult to say whether that’s closer to a 1-in-3 or 2-in-3 chance for most of Houston. In any case, just know there’s a chance that any outdoor plans may be briefly disrupted by a passing shower.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday should see a continuation of this sticky pattern with scattered rain showers. Beyond that it’s possible we may see a weak front on Tuesday or Wednesday to bring a bit of drier air, followed by a stronger front next week to really cool us down in a meaningful way. Until there’s meaningful agreement in the models I don’t want to make any promises.

In brief: Houston really needs some rain, and in the next several days it is finally going to fall over the region. This post explains when, and how much. Beyond that, Houston’s humidity levels will remain elevated for several days, leading to sticky conditions. We still expect a nice fall front during the second half of next week.

Rainfall needed

Nearly all of the Houston region has fallen into a moderate drought in recent weeks, and we’re starting to see a severe drought for some locations to the northwest of the metro area. These conditions have been created by an exceptionally dry September and October, and much of our region has received no rain in more than five weeks, and very little in the last eight weeks. This dry weather has coincided with a period of mostly hot and sunny days, leading to very dry soils.

We have needed rainfall and finally, over the next several days, we are going to get some rain as a weak front sags into Houston, stalls, and disturbs the atmosphere. The forecast models have trended a little bit wetter over the last day, so we now expect most of the region to pick up 1 to 2 inches of precipitation through the weekend. This won’t completely end our drought, but a little November rain goes a long way with shorter days and cooler weather on the horizon.

Tuesday

Rain is unlikely today, but conditions will help set up a wetter second half of the week. We’ll see partly to mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. Southeasterly winds will blow at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph, and this will herald increasing atmospheric moisture levels. A few coastal showers will be possible later today or tonight, but overall rain chances remain low. Temperatures tonight will only fall into the mid-70s for most of Houston, with higher humidity levels.

Wednesday and Thursday

These days should bring the most elevated rain chances, with much of Houston seeing a better than 50-50 likelihood of precipitation. Showers on Wednesday are likely to start during the mid- to late morning hours and chances will remain high through most of Thursday. To be clear, these are unlikely to be strong storms that lead to flooding, but should typically be more moderate showers. But we may well see some thunderstorms embedded in the showers. Highs both days will be in the low- to mid-80s.

If you’re concerned about Halloween weather, most of our available modeling indicates that rain showers should taper off somewhat by Thursday afternoon or evening. We’ll have a better handle on this in tomorrow’s forecast, where there is more high-resolution guidance available. But for now, I’d anticipate cloudy conditions on Thursday evening, with temperatures in the upper 70s and plenty of humidity.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Partly sunny skies, trending toward mostly sunny, will prevail through the weekend. Look for high temperatures, generally, in the low- to mid-80s. We’ll definitely see the possibility of showers each day, although chances for most locations will be 50 percent or less. Humidity levels remain high throughout the weekend, so nights will stay sticky.

Next week

This pattern continues into the first half of next week, with highs in the 80s, and at least some low-end rain chances. At some point I expect to see a fairly robust cold front, but whether that’s on Wednesday or Thursday I don’t yet have confidence. However, I have to tell you, if we could get a combination of healthy rain showers this week, and a very much fall-like front next week, I’d be feeling pretty good about our weather here in Houston.