Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we look at our warm-ish start to April, and how we’re going to turbo-charge that this week before a nice front arrives this weekend. We should be back to seasonal temperatures then, but we’re still trying to read the tea leaves as to whether it will rain with the front.

Warm April nights

So far April is off to a pretty warm start, with an average temperature of 71.4 degrees, a little more than three degrees above normal. But where we have really felt this is with our nights, which are typically in the upper 50s through the first half of April. However, we’ve been mostly in the 60s and 70s. We’re not close to setting any monthly records (through the first two weeks, our average and average minimum temperatures are not in the top 10 warmest of all time). But we are going to take the warmer-than-usual temperatures we’ve seen during the first half of April and super-charge them this week before a front returns us to seasonal conditions this weekend.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These days will both be similar, with a strong southerly flow (winds gusting up to 25 mph during the afternoon) bringing warm air and temperatures into the region. Expect highs in the mid-80s with partly sunny skies and plenty of humidity. Overnight lows will drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas. Although there is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, a capping inversion will likely suppress any shower activity.

Thursday and Friday

I expect both of these days to see a little more sunshine, and accordingly I suspect our daily temperatures will push into the upper 80s (although probably not all the way to 90 degrees). Overnight lows remain warm and muggy, and those gusty southerly winds will continue. Rain chances, still, remain near zero with the possible exception of areas along and north of Highway 105.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring some cooler and drier air in the form of a front. But when? Right now I’m thinking Saturday evening is the most likely time. Assuming that’s the case—and to be clear, we are not locked in yet—Saturday should be another warm and fairly humid day with highs in the 80s. I do expect more clouds and a slight chance of light rain during the morning and early afternoon. At some point during the afternoon or evening a line of showers and possibly thunderstorms should drop down from the northwest along with the front. At this point I’m not seeing any signal for severe storms or heavy rainfall (a dry frontal passage is also still possible). This front should push Sunday morning’s lows down to around 60 degrees. Highs on Sunday look to be in the 70s, with lower humidity and partly (to mostly?) cloudy skies.

Next week

I think we’ll see overnight lows, possibly in the 50s, persist through Tuesday morning before we warm up again some, probably back to around highs in the lower to mid-80s by mid-week. Rain chances appear low before next weekend.

In brief: We recap Sunday’s showers and highlight the potential for some isolated storms today. After that we’re warming up this week toward highs in the upper 80s. The weekend forecast is uncertain due to the likely arrival of a front to cool us down for a few days.

Big winners and losers with Sunday’s showers

It’s safe to say that, for areas northwest of central Houston, showers and thunderstorms on Sunday over-performed expectations. Matt correctly predicted on Friday that “the atmosphere will be pretty juiced up this weekend,” but we expected the heavier rainfall to occur a little further north of Houston on Sunday. Instead, a large swath of areas northwest of Houston, such as Sealy, Cypress, and Tomball, generally picked up 2 to 5 inches of rainfall, with some very intense bursts of rainfall. Most of the rest of the area picked up below 0.25 inch. We’ll have one more shot at some showers today before most of this week is rain-free. Our next (decent) chance will come next weekend, likely with a front.

Monday

The atmosphere remains fairly moist, and I think we could squeeze out some fairly isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Probably only 20 or 30 percent of the area will see rainfall today, but for those that do there could be some briefly strong showers. Otherwise I expect a partly to mostly sunny day with high temperatures in the lower 80s for most locations. Our atmosphere remains plenty humid. This afternoon, and for pretty much all of this week, we can expect gusty southerly winds during the afternoon, perhaps up to 25 mph. Overnight lows remain very warm, around 70 degrees.

Tuesday through Friday

We’ll see a warming trend in daytime temperatures this week, with highs eventually pushing into the upper 80s (perhaps 90 degrees for a few inland locations). Each day will see a fair bit of sunshine, with Thursday perhaps the sunniest. Our air remains humid, and our nights warm. Rain chances each day are probably about 10 percent, or perhaps a bit higher for areas along and north of Highway 105, well north of the city of Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

I don’t have great confidence yet in the coming weekend, but generally it looks probable that some sort of cold front will move through on Saturday, Saturday night, or early Sunday. Accordingly I expect another fairly warm day on Saturday, with highs likely in the upper 80s. There will be a chance of rain (still too early to say how high) with the front’s passage, and then Sunday should see drier air (assuming the front pushes all the way off the coast) with highs in the 70s. Give us another day or two to fine-tune the weekend forecast, please.

Next week

We should see a couple of cooler nights in the wake of the front, and I’m hopeful that Sunday and Monday nights will both drop into the 50s, but we’ll have to see. Our highs will probably return to 80 degrees, or higher, by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss how Houston is about to settle into a persistently warm and muggy pattern for at least the next week, and probably longer. We also take a look at rain chances for Friday and the weekend, which are trending down.

Sultry April nights

Our weather is about to feel more like late May than early April. Daytime temperatures for the next week, at least, won’t be too abnormally warm, generally slotting into the 80 to 85 degree range. But our nights will be anomalously warm for sure. Typically we see lows down around 60 degrees for this time of year. But after this morning, with a low of 61 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, our nights will be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, climbing potentially to the lower 70s by this weekend and beyond. This is indicative of a warm onshore flow and increasing moisture levels, and indeed there will be plenty of humidity. Will there be enough moisture for widespread showers? We discuss below.

Thursday

Our winds from the east are fairly light this morning, but they will pick up this afternoon, perhaps gusting up to about 20 mph. I expect some clouds, but for much of the afternoon partly to mostly sunny skies should prevail, allowing high temperatures to reach the lower 80s this afternoon. I don’t think we can entirely rule out some rain showers, but right now I would peg chances at about 10 percent, with only some fairly isolated activity. Clouds return tonight, with lows around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland.

Friday

Expect highs of around 80 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Overall conditions will be favorable for rainfall, but not perfect (I’m watching for some subsidence). In any case I think our region will have about a 50 percent chance of showers, with accumulations of less than 1 inch (and probably considerably less for most of us). Showers are most likely during the daytime hours, and fading during the evening and overnight hours. Expect another warm night.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see continued warm and muggy weather, with highs in the low 80s and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances for both days are likely on the order of 30 percent, but any rain that falls should not be in the form of sustained showers. Rather, this likely would be in the form of passing showers. Nights remain about 10 degrees above normal.

Next week

Most likely we will see a continued warm and muggy pattern next week, with temperatures perhaps rising to the mid-80s by Wednesday or Thursday. Our atmosphere will remain in a somewhat unsettled state, so we could see some increasing rain chances by the middle of the week, and possibly some severe weather. However, the bulk of this threat looks to remain to the west of us, and I cannot pin down any specific threat just yet. So it’s not something I’d be particularly concerned about right now. As for the region’s next front, I just don’t see any strong signal for that in the next 10 days. I’d very much love to be wrong about that.

In brief: In today’s post we celebrate the recent Artemis II lunar flyby, and look ahead to warmer and somewhat cloudier weather after today. Rain chances spike on Friday, but they won’t entirely go away this weekend.

Fly me to the Moon

I’m not sure I’ll ever look at the Moon the same way again. On Monday four astronauts—our friends and neighbors in Houston; Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen—flew around the far side of the Moon (see images here). There they saw some incredible lunar geography (selenography in space talk), Earth setting behind the Moon, and a stunning eclipse of the Sun. I’m hoping this mission is breaking through to the broader public because this is an incredible crew, and it is delightful to see NASA daring to fly into deep space again. If we do this right, this is just the beginning of a long, sustained program to explore and settle on the lunar surface.

Wednesday

Back here on Earth, we are not going to see any eclipses, but we will see plenty of sunshine throughout the day. We are starting to see a more pronounced onshore flow, but dewpoints should hold in the 50s (read: drier air) through the afternoon before humidity shoots up later today. I expect high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Thursday

After today we’re going to see less sunshine for the next few days, but I don’t expect it to go away entirely. Highs on Thursday will again be in the range of 80 degrees, with a fair bit of humidity. Winds will blow from the east-southeast at about 10 mph with higher gusts. A few light showers will be possible during the daytime, but I don’t expect any real accumulations. Lows Thursday night will only drop to around 70 degrees. And that’s pretty much going to be our low temperatures for the next week, so get used to them.

Friday

This day will bring our best chance of rain for the week as an upper-level disturbance moves into the area and combines with a fairly moist atmosphere. The best chance of rain is likely to be southwest of Houston, so places like Fort Bend and southern Brazoria counties. However, I expect most of the area to see a healthy chance of rain, with much of us probably picking up between 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain through Friday night. Highs will be near 80 degrees with another muggy night.

Saturday or Sunday

I’m afraid we’re still playing the will-it or won’t-it rain game for this weekend game. A lot of our modeling indicates that the chances for showers will drop off considerably by Saturday morning, but I’m not convinced there will be enough high pressure in play to entirely shut off the spigot. I’m going to go with a 40 percent chance of showers on Saturday, and 30 percent on Sunday, and not feel great about the forecast. Regardless, I don’t anticipate heavy rainfall this weekend. Expect highs around 80 degrees with continued warm nights and partly sunny skies.

Next week

Most of next week looks to remain on the warm side, with highs in the low 80s, warm nights, and plenty of humidity. Rain chances are never going to go away, but they may be a little higher during the middle of the week as the atmosphere becomes a little more perturbed. We shall see.