Eric Berger

In brief: Spring effectively ended on Monday after two lovely weekends in a row. But that’s all over now as summer has arrived in Houston. Expect hot and sunny weather to prevail for at least the next week, and probably beyond.

An almost summer-like setup

High pressure has begun to build over the region, and this will continue to intensify over the next few days. This means sinking (rather than rising) air, and mostly sunny days. In addition to this we are seeing a southwesterly flow in the atmosphere, bringing warm air into the region. This is a classic setup for hot temperatures, and although it is just May this is the pattern we are going to experience for at least the next week, if not beyond. In my opinion the 90s was an excellent decade, I would argue the best decade, but I’m not sure its the temperatures I want to feel in May. But here we are.

Tuesday

As a result of this pattern we can expect mostly sunny skies today, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s across the city (the coast may be slightly cooler). Southerly winds will be gusty this afternoon, up to 20 or possibly even 25 mph. And we can more or less expect the same southerly winds, peaking during the afternoon, for the next week. Low temperatures tonight will unlikely fall much below 75 degrees. Oh, and there will be humidity. Plenty of it. Rain chances are near zero.

Wednesday through Sunday

The above pattern will more or less persist through the weekend. I think temperatures will peak on Wednesday, with many locations possibly reaching the upper 90s, but we should come down a couple of degrees by the weekend. But this is splitting hairs, really, We are looking at sunny and hot weather during the daytime, and partly cloudy and muggy nights. If you’re heading to central Texas, the heat will be scorching there. Austin is expected to smash daily high temperature records by as much as 10 degrees, with a high approaching 107 degrees on Wednesday.

Next week

At this time I don’t expect much change at least for the first half of next week. Highs will likely remain in the 90s. We may start to see some spotty showers as the upper air pattern changes a bit, but once we get into these hot and rain-free patterns, long-time residents will know they can become difficult to break.

In brief: The calendar reads May 12, but although June remains several weeks away today is the final day of spring for this year. Beginning tomorrow summer arrives in Houston and it does not appear likely to relinquish its grip. The region faces hot and sunny weather for awhile.

The end of spring

Looking back with hindsight, we might say that spring began on February 26 in Houston this year, a day when the high temperature reached 82 degrees. From that point forward, the city would not have any more daily highs below 69 degrees. And all things considered, it has been a rather warm spring, with both March and April recording average temperatures more than 4 degrees above normal. However, May so far has been temperate with near normal highs and lows, and a pair of pretty spectacular spring-like weekends. For those dreading the onset of summer it has been mighty fine. Sunday evening, with sporadic sunshine and dry air, was just an incredibly fine time to be outside.

But all good things must come to an end. And we can say with high confidence that spring will end today. Consider this morning the final hurrah. It sure may not feel like it outside right now, with much of the area dropping into the upper 50s. Indeed, it feels almost chilly outside. But believe me, this is it. The high today will be fine, in the mid-80s for most locations. But tonight will be warmer and more humid, and then by Tuesday we’re off to the races with a high temperature likely reaching the lower 90s. Maybe we will get a final, weak front 8-10 days from now, but it’s not something I’d bet on.

Monday

Much of the Houston region has fallen into the upper 50s or lower 60s this morning, and it feels positively spring like. Winds are generally calm this morning, and may yet come from the northwest for a few more hours today. This will help hold dewpoints in the 50s for much of today, helping keep humidity levels low through this afternoon and early evening. With clear skies high temperatures will likely reach the mid-80s. By tonight we will fall into a much more southeasterly flow, allowing for humidity levels to rise. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s.

Tuesday

Southerly winds will become much more noticeable on Tuesday, with gusts up to 25 mph or perhaps even a bit higher. With this southerly flow skies will be mostly sunny, and high temperatures will reach at least the lower 90s. Tuesday night will be warm, with lows dropping only into the mid-70s.

Wednesday through Sunday

High pressure takes control, and we are going to see a hot week. Look for partly to mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the mid-90s, and mostly cloudy nights with lows in the upper 70s. Some inland locations will get into the upper 90s, with Wednesday likely to be the hottest day of the week. Rain chances will be virtually non-existent. With dewpoints around 70 degrees, the humidity will feel summer-like. From day to day there will be very little change in the weather, but there might be a very slight downturn in temperatures by the weekend.

Next week

The uncharacteristically hot pattern will persist into next week before some kind of front slides into the state. Whether it makes it all the way to Houston remains to be seen. But that will bring our best chance of rain for the next 10 days.

In brief: Houston still has a few chances for some scattered showers today and Saturday, but for the most part we are going to see sunny skies for awhile. The biggest news today is that a cool front, perhaps the final one of this spring, will slowly push into the area today and tonight. This will set the stage for a grand weekend of May weather.

Cool fronts

Ahh, cool fronts. Is there anything better in Houston than that? I mean, the food around these parts is pretty darn good. The people, when they’re not screeching along freeways, are generally quite friendly. You can find a good living here. But for me, there is not much in this southern city to beat a cool front that comes along and knocks down the humidity, allowing us to pretend we don’t live in a jumped-up swamp.

I love cool front season. I live for cool front season.

Houston got its first (admittedly weak) front of fall last year in late September. On the 27th of the month, the temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport dipped below 64 degrees. That means we’ve had 222 days during which we might reasonably hope for a cool front in Houston. It’s been a good run, but I’m afraid it’s about to end.

Today and tomorrow are going to see dry air slowly percolating into the area, such that Saturday, Sunday, and Monday aren’t exactly going to feel humid outside. It won’t be particularly cool, mind you. But it won’t be hot, either, and the air won’t feel sultry. For this time of year we cannot ask for much more. I’m also not entirely ruling out one more (almost certainly weaker) front later in the month. It’s possible. But I wouldn’t bet on it. I’d bet on summer. But hey, I just checked, and the end of September is only 20 weeks away…

Thursday

Today will be sunny and fairly warm, with high temperatures reaching the mid- to upper 80s with a fair amount of humidity. Winds will generally be light, from the northeast, at 5 to 10 mph. Late this afternoon, and evening, an atmospheric disturbance will approach from the west and this will introduce a chance of showers and thunderstorms. I think overall rain chances are only about 20 or 30 percent, and the primary time frame will be this evening or during the overnight hours. We could see a few thunderstorms as well, and we cannot entirely rule out some of them becoming severe. However, I doubt it. Lows tonight drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

Winds will come more prominently from the north on Friday, and this will start to bring some modestly drier air into the region. Highs will likely only reach the lower 80s on Friday under mostly sunny skies. Lows on Friday night will drop into the mid-60s.

Saturday

Highs on Saturday may only reach the upper 70s, with mostly sunny skies. There will be enough of a disturbance in the atmosphere that we may see a few scattered showers later in the day due to daytime heating, but overall chances are quite low. Temperatures on Saturday night should drop into the upper 50s for some inland areas, while remaining in the lower 60s closer to the coast.

Sunday

Mother Nature is bringing the goods for Mother’s Day this year, with a lovely day in store. Expect mostly sunny skies, highs of around 80 degrees, and moderate humidity levels. Really, an A+ day for mid-May. We’ll have one more somewhat chilly night on Sunday.

Next week

We’ll see a warming trend next week, and by Tuesday or Wednesday we’ll begin a stretch of at least several days with high temperatures in the 90s with plenty of humidity. Rain chances appear to be low at least until next weekend. It is that time of year.

In brief: The Houston region will see one final round of showers and potentially severe weather today, but only the southern half of our area is at risk. After this morning, the bulk of the heavy rains and thunderstorms will shift east. We then can look forward to a pleasant, sunny weekend.

Storm status

After some central and northern portions of the Houston metro saw storms on Tuesday and Tuesday night, it is now the turn of coastal counties to see widespread activity. An atmospheric disturbance is propagating up the coast, and it will drive showers and thunderstorms in our area, primarily south of Interstate 10, with the greatest activity for locations right along the coast. Although the likelihood of severe weather is lower than Tuesday, we cannot rule out the possibility of a tornado.

Rain accumulations may briefly flood some streets, so we are maintaining a Stage 1 flood alert in place for areas south of I-10. (Most areas north of I-10 will see limited to no rainfall today and tonight). Areas right along the coast may pick up 1 to 4 inches of rainfall, with lesser totals further inland. By mid- to late-morning the bulk of this system should have moved off to the east, clearing the region, and ending the possibility of widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday

As noted above, your weather this morning will depend a great deal on how far you live from the coast. However most of the region should see clearing skies this afternoon, and this will allow high temperatures to jump into the low- to mid-80s for most locations. Winds will generally be light, from the east. Lows tonight will drop only to around 70 degrees.

Thursday

This should be a mostly sunny day, with temperatures reaching the mid- to upper-80s. There will be a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, perhaps 20 percent. Temperatures on Thursday night will drop into the upper 60s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

A weak front will slowly drag some drier air into the Houston region, and this will lead to some nicer days as we approach the weekend. I’m not sure whether this will be the final front of the season to make a meaningful impact on temperatures and humidity, but it may well be. Anyway, we should see three mostly sunny days, with highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with moderately drier air (dewpoints in the 50s, probably). Nighttime temperatures will likely drop to about 60 degrees for a few mornings, with some inland areas hitting the upper 50s. Again, this is not cold by any measure, but it is far cooler than the weather that lies ahead of us for the next four to five months. Finally, we cannot entirely rule out some rain chances, but they’ll be quite low each day.

Next week

As high pressure builds in most of next week looks hot and sunny. By Thursday or Friday we could start to see daily highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees, with plenty of humidity. Summer will be on our doorstep.