Eric Berger

In brief: After a long dry spell Houston has finally undergone a pattern change, and we’re now in a period in which there will be a healthy chance of rain for at least the next five or six days. For today, our latest modeling suggests that rainfall will wind down late this afternoon, but there’s a risk of scattered showers at sunset for some locations north of Interstate 10. A weak front next week should bring drier air to the region.

A few housekeeping notes

First of all, if you missed our monthly Q&A we published on Wednesday, be sure and check it out. Dwight Silverman collects questions and every month Matt and I dig into the mailbag and respond to your weather-related queries. Heck, I’d even take space questions if you’ve got them, and I’m sure Matt would love nothing more than to write long encomiums about Rutgers basketball if readers so desire. Which I’m sure you don’t. Because how could you?

I also want to thank everyone who came to the first-ever Space Happy Hour last night at Space Center Houston. It was great to meet so many fans of the site. As a quick reminder, we did not hold a “Fall Day” celebration this year because we’re going to hold a bigger event next year to mark the onset of fall and also the 10th anniversary (!) of the founding of Space City Weather.

If you’re wondering why this post is late this morning, it’s because I’m torturing—I mean training—for the Houston marathon again this year and I had to knock out 12 miles. Let me tell you, running that in 100 percent humidity really, really sucks. Why didn’t I wait for cooler weather this weekend? Because there is no cooler or drier weather coming this weekend. Finally, we’re going to post our winter outlook next Monday, so be on the lookout. We are going to have a winter in Houston this year, right? RIGHT?!?

Thursday

Happy Halloween! I hope your kids aren’t wearing tight-fitting plastic costumes this evening, because those little guys and gals are going to be heading out into some pretty thick humidity. The question is, will it be raining at around sunset?

As of about 7:30 am there’s a fairly robust line of showers to the west and southwest of Houston, and I expect those to move generally eastward today. Throughout the day most of the region should at least see some intermittent showers, with parts of the area likely seeing brief downpours. When it’s not raining we’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine, with high temperatures likely in the low- to mid-80s.

By late this afternoon and early evening, shower activity should be winding down. However there could be some remnant boundaries, along which there will be the potential for some additional showers and thunderstorms between 6 pm and 10 pm. I expect this activity to be fairly scattered, and located north of Interstate 10. So it’s something to be aware of this evening before heading too far from home. No candy is worth tempting fate with lightning.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We’ll see partly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s through the weekend. Each day will likely bring intermittent light to moderate showers, possibly with a few thunderstorms. We don’t expect any washouts, but our overall wetter pattern should persist. So have an umbrella handy and a contingency for any outdoor plans if a shower pops up overhead. For the most part, I expect these showers to pass fairly quickly. Nights remain warm and humid, generally in the mid-70s.

Next week

Oh my friends, I wish I could offer you a clear-cut forecast for next week. But as of yet, such a thing does not exist. Generally speaking, I expect a fair bit of rain on Monday evening and Tuesday of next week, ahead of a front. There’s the potential for areas to pick up 1 to 2 inches with this system, which will do some nice work on the drought if it develops. Then a weak front probably moves through on Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing some drier air and cooler temperatures. For now my expectations are that we might see some lows down around 60 degrees, but that could go higher or possibly lower. There’s a decent chance we get a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air by next weekend, but I certainly would not count on that. Not at all.

In brief: As the amount of moisture in our atmosphere increases, we’ll see higher humidity and improving rain chances from today through early next week. It won’t feel like November outside, that’s for sure. As for Halloween, we’ll see daytime showers on Thursday, but I’m hopeful that there will be some clearing by the early evening hours when the kiddos are out and about.

Big picture

With the robust southerly winds we’ve seen over the last couple of days, plenty of moisture has returned to our atmosphere. We’ve already felt that with rising humidity levels, and the sticky air will be with us until at least next Monday or Tuesday as a southerly flow prevails. However, this fertile atmosphere will also set out a welcome mat for a (very) weak front that will sag into the area over the next couple of days.

This environment will support the region’s first widespread, and meaningful rainfall in nearly two months. One should not expect complete relief from the drought-like conditions that have developed over Houston; however any rainfall at this point will be very much appreciated by our region’s flora and fauna. I’m hopeful that most of Houston and surrounding areas will get about 1 inch of rain.

Wednesday

As we look at the radar this morning, for the first time in what seems like forever there is a decent amount of offshore activity. Over the next couple of hours we will see the development of showers on shore. This activity will be fairly scattered, and favor the eastern half of the area. Rain chances are about 50 percent, and we cannot rule out a few thunderstorms. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds will blow from the south, with some gusts up to 20 mph or a bit higher. Low temperatures tonight will be muggy, in the mid-70s for most locations.

All Hallows’ Eve

Expect another humid, partly sunny day with highs in the mid-80s. Rain coverage will probably be greater on Thursday than Wednesday, with the potential for some thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. We expect to see a diminution in shower activity as evening comes on, but there may be some lingering showers near sunset (6:35 pm CT) as darkness comes on. Our advice? If it’s raining when you want to go trick-or-treating, just wait a bit as shower activity should subside. It will be plenty humid outside during the evening hours, with overnight lows eventually dropping into the mid-70s.

Friday

A day a lot like Thursday, albeit possibly with slightly less shower coverage.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring partly sunny skies, highs in the mid-80s, and plenty of humidity. With the state of the atmosphere I’d expect a decent chance of showers each day, although it’s difficult to say whether that’s closer to a 1-in-3 or 2-in-3 chance for most of Houston. In any case, just know there’s a chance that any outdoor plans may be briefly disrupted by a passing shower.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday should see a continuation of this sticky pattern with scattered rain showers. Beyond that it’s possible we may see a weak front on Tuesday or Wednesday to bring a bit of drier air, followed by a stronger front next week to really cool us down in a meaningful way. Until there’s meaningful agreement in the models I don’t want to make any promises.

In brief: Houston really needs some rain, and in the next several days it is finally going to fall over the region. This post explains when, and how much. Beyond that, Houston’s humidity levels will remain elevated for several days, leading to sticky conditions. We still expect a nice fall front during the second half of next week.

Rainfall needed

Nearly all of the Houston region has fallen into a moderate drought in recent weeks, and we’re starting to see a severe drought for some locations to the northwest of the metro area. These conditions have been created by an exceptionally dry September and October, and much of our region has received no rain in more than five weeks, and very little in the last eight weeks. This dry weather has coincided with a period of mostly hot and sunny days, leading to very dry soils.

We have needed rainfall and finally, over the next several days, we are going to get some rain as a weak front sags into Houston, stalls, and disturbs the atmosphere. The forecast models have trended a little bit wetter over the last day, so we now expect most of the region to pick up 1 to 2 inches of precipitation through the weekend. This won’t completely end our drought, but a little November rain goes a long way with shorter days and cooler weather on the horizon.

Tuesday

Rain is unlikely today, but conditions will help set up a wetter second half of the week. We’ll see partly to mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. Southeasterly winds will blow at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph, and this will herald increasing atmospheric moisture levels. A few coastal showers will be possible later today or tonight, but overall rain chances remain low. Temperatures tonight will only fall into the mid-70s for most of Houston, with higher humidity levels.

Wednesday and Thursday

These days should bring the most elevated rain chances, with much of Houston seeing a better than 50-50 likelihood of precipitation. Showers on Wednesday are likely to start during the mid- to late morning hours and chances will remain high through most of Thursday. To be clear, these are unlikely to be strong storms that lead to flooding, but should typically be more moderate showers. But we may well see some thunderstorms embedded in the showers. Highs both days will be in the low- to mid-80s.

If you’re concerned about Halloween weather, most of our available modeling indicates that rain showers should taper off somewhat by Thursday afternoon or evening. We’ll have a better handle on this in tomorrow’s forecast, where there is more high-resolution guidance available. But for now, I’d anticipate cloudy conditions on Thursday evening, with temperatures in the upper 70s and plenty of humidity.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Partly sunny skies, trending toward mostly sunny, will prevail through the weekend. Look for high temperatures, generally, in the low- to mid-80s. We’ll definitely see the possibility of showers each day, although chances for most locations will be 50 percent or less. Humidity levels remain high throughout the weekend, so nights will stay sticky.

Next week

This pattern continues into the first half of next week, with highs in the 80s, and at least some low-end rain chances. At some point I expect to see a fairly robust cold front, but whether that’s on Wednesday or Thursday I don’t yet have confidence. However, I have to tell you, if we could get a combination of healthy rain showers this week, and a very much fall-like front next week, I’d be feeling pretty good about our weather here in Houston.

In brief: Today’s post looks back at October, and explains why the weather has felt so incredibly hot in Houston this month. We also look ahead to the return of rain chances this week after a very long dry spell. And finally, we preview the arrival of substantially cooler weather during the latter half of next week.

Putting October’s record heat into context

You may have noticed that this October has felt hotter than normal, and you’re not wrong. A majority of days so far, 18, have reached a high temperature of 90 degrees or above. We have set daily highs on five days so far this month, including two extremely warm days (99 and 98 degrees) in the middle of the month before a front rolled through.

One way to assess the impact of heat is to look at three-day stretches. That is, if we take a three-day period in October, how does it rank among hottest three-day periods in October history? Well, in this case, four of the ten hottest three-day periods in October occurred during this month. The three days in the middle of the month produced absolutely unprecedented heat for this time of year.

So what caused this heat? One cannot escape the background signal of climate change when we’re setting daily high temperatures like this. But if we dig a little deeper there is more at play here. Let’s start with daily high temperatures: the average so far this month is 90.2 degrees, which is on pace to smash the previous record of 86.5 degrees set in 2016. So our days, at least during the 135 years of records we can refer to, have never been hotter. However, our average low temperature this month has been 62.5 degrees. This ranks 42nd all time. That is very far from abnormal. (Note these numbers are not final, but will not change too much before the end of the month.)

What we can derive from this data is that Houston, generally, has had a drier flow this month with a lot of easterly breezes. This has kept dewpoints down bit. Therefore we have had hot and sunny days, with cooler clear nights. Based on average temperature, this month will still end up among the five warmest Octobers of all time—the daytime highs have been that extreme—but comparatively speaking our nights have been relatively mild.

Monday

I write all of that to say the humidity is coming back this week, and you’re going to notice the southerly flow. Winds today will be from the southeast, with gusts up to 20 mph. We’ll see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the upper 80s. Low temperatures tonight will only fall into the lower 70s, so it will be very muggy outside.

Tuesday

Conditions will be similar to Monday, in terms of warmth and mostly sunny skies. The only difference is that our southeasterly winds will increase, and we may see some gusts up to 30 mph during the afternoon hours. So it’s really going to be blowing and going. Lows on Tuesday night may only fall into the mid-70s.

Wednesday

Expect partly to mostly sunny skies on Wednesday, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Some scattered rain chances return, especially for the coast, during the afternoon hours. Overall accumulations look fairly slight. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the low 70s.

Halloween

It has not rained in 70 bajillion years in Houston, and of course the first day with really health rain chances comes on an outdoor holiday. Look, I’m not complaining about the rain, since we desperately need it. But on Halloween? Anyway, the good news is that while most of the region should see some light showers on Thursday, they’re likely to fading by around sunset, when trick-or-treating begins. The daytime showers will be driven by a very weak front that should help knock high temperatures into the lower 80s. Nighttime lows remain very warm.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Highs over this period will range from about 80 to 85 degrees for the metro area, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Each say will see a modest chance of rain, perhaps on the order of 30 to 40 percent. Nights remain warm and muggy. It’s worth noting that although the region will see some welcome rain chances this week, overall accumulations will likely be 1 inch or less for most locations. That is nice, but unlikely to bust our drought.

Next week

The first part of next week should see continued warm and muggy weather, with some modest rain chances. However, there is a very strong signal that by Wednesday or Thursday we’re going to see a fairly robust cold front that should knock our temperatures back to seasonal levels, with lows in the 50s or so. This is far enough out to retain a bit of skepticism, but it does seem pretty clear that we are going to see a significant pattern change some time next week.