Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss our rapidly rising dewpoints, and how a weak front will only modestly knock them down. Our rain chances this week have shifted a bit, with Thursday and Friday now the most likely days. The latter half of this weekend looks pretty darn warm.

Dewpoint recovery

The main reason why the weather felt so comfortable this past weekend was an uncharacteristically sharp drop in dewpoints for early May. Technically, the dewpoint is the temperature to which air must be cooled for it to become saturated with moisture. But more generally they’re easy to understand this way: Dewpoints in the 40s and below mean the air feels dry and refreshing. The 50s are comfortable, whereas the 60s start to feel somewhat humid, and 70s and above are rather muggy. I don’t even want to talk about dewpoints in the 80s, but in a month or two we’re probably going to have to.

This weekend dewpoints in Houston reached the 40s on Saturday and Sunday before rising into the 50s on Monday. All of this felt rather comfortable. But this morning dewpoints have recovered to about 70 degrees for most of the region, and by Wednesday they’ll be in the mid-70s. So yeah, it’s going to feel humid for the next couple of days before a weak front brings some very slight relief.

Tuesday

In addition to rising humidity, temperatures today will also be climbing. How warm will depend on how much clouds break up this afternoon. For most of us, temperatures will range from the low- to mid-80s, but sunnier spots could rise into the upper-80s. It’s also going to be breezy, with gusty winds from the south as high as 25 mph later this morning. Rain chances are less than 10 percent. Clouds return this evening, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s.

Wednesday and Thursday

Wednesday will be another humid day, with highs likely reaching the mid- to upper-80s. With increasing moisture levels we are going to see some scattered showers, but I don’t think it will be anything too serious. A cold front will approach the region later on Wednesday, but the overall trend in the models has been slower. Therefore, although some storms may be possible Wednesday night, it now appears as though this activity will be delayed into Thursday morning when this front sags into Houston. So, bottom line, it looks like the best chance for rain and potentially storms will come on Thursday in association with the front. In terms of accumulations most of us will probably get 1 inch or less, so flooding does not appear to be a major concern. But we’re going to keep an eye on things because a slow moving front and ample moisture can always cause some problems. Highs Thursday should top out in the upper 70s with lows Thursday night should be a little cooler, perhaps in the 60s.

Friday

A healthy chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms lingers on Friday, with mostly cloudy skies and highs near 80 degrees. The air will be slightly less humid (i.e. dewpoints in the 60s).

Saturday and Sunday

I’m starting to have a little more confidence in the weekend forecast, but don’t write things down in ink just yet. Saturday should be mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. So at this time I’m cautiously optimistic that things look good-to-go for most outdoor activities. Sunday looks pretty hot, with highs inching up toward 90 degrees, depending on the extent of sunshine we see. There will be at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.

Next week

It’s possible that a weak front makes it through Houston on Monday or so to bring us some cooler air, or maybe not. Now that we’re into May, cold fronts become a lot more uncertain this far south. So we’ll have to wait and see.

In brief: After stunning weather across Houston this weekend, we return abruptly to reality this week with rising humidity levels and warmer weather. Beginning on Wednesday we’ll also see rising rain chances that may linger into next weekend.

Peak weather

This weekend’s weather was not perfect for everyone, or every activity. For a beach day, you might want it a little warmer. For long-duration running, maybe you’d want things a little colder. But for being outside, for working in the yard, taking a walk, or watching the sunset—this weekend was perfect. We had clear skies, low humidity, cool mornings and pleasant days, and after Saturday morning modest winds. With these four conditions, Houston hit the quadfecta. Not only that, the weekend came after some super helpful rainfall that knocked most of the region out of a months-long drought. It felt good.

I am confident in saying this will be Houston’s nicest weekend for at least the next five months, and probably longer. Given that both Saturday and Sunday had exceptional weather, it was probably was the nicest wall-to-wall weekend we will have all year. I hope you found some time to spend outside.

Monday

We are going to have one more sunny day before our skies turn mostly cloudy for awhile. Winds have already shifted to come from the southeast, and this morning’s light breeze will pick up this afternoon to come from the southeast, gusting up to 25 mph. Expect sunny skies with a high temperature of around 80 degrees, or perhaps a touch warmer. Humidity will steadily rise throughout the day and accordingly our lows tonight will only drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Tuesday

A warmer and more humid day with high temperatures generally in the mid-80s. Skies will turn partly to mostly cloudy. The onshore flow will become even a little stronger, with southerly wind gusts up to 30 mph. As a result of this flow the moisture levels in our atmosphere will increase, but I think any rain showers will hold off until at least Tuesday night or Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will only fall into the mid-70s.

Wednesday

A cool front will approach the area from the north, and if you read ‘Tuesday’ section of today’s post you’ll know that with all the southerly winds we’ve been pumping up the available moisture for showers and thunderstorms. The front will disturb the atmosphere enough such that there is a low-end chance for some severe weather later on Wednesday, especially for areas north of Interstate 10. So there’s the possibility of some showers and storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening, and then the front itself will probably sag into the region Wednesday night. Bottom line: there’s a fair bit of uncertainty in rain amounts and temperatures. For now I’ll predict highs in the mid-80s on Wednesday, with overnight lows dropping to around 70.

Thursday and Friday

Our weather to end the week is going to depend where you live (i.e. further from the coast, a better chance of lower temperatures and slightly lower humidity). Basically I would expect highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees and lows in the 60s. Both of these days will also have a heathy chance of rain, perhaps 50 percent each day. Overall accumulations through Friday will probably be on the order of 1 inch for most of us, but there will be some wide variations. Anyway, if you have outdoor plans from Wednesday through Friday some caution is advised, as a lot of questions remain.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances are not going away this weekend, but whether they’re 20 percent for both days, or 50 percent, I just cannot say with this unsettled pattern. I think we’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine. Highs will likely be in the vicinity of the low-80s with lows in the 60s or perhaps lower 70s. Stay tuned for a better weekend forecast, because we’re just not there yet.

Next week

It’s possible that another weak front arrives early next week, and this should help keep our temperatures in the lower 80s, with maybe a cooler night or two. Daily rain chances do start to look lower after next Monday or so with the potential for more sunshine. We’ll see!

In brief: The current storms across the region are behaving more or less as expected, and much of the Houston region is getting a good soaking with no major problems. We see one more wave of storms this afternoon before the front moves offshore.

Houston weather status: It’s raining. And it will continue to do so for several more hours.

We have seen a couple of waves of showers and thunderstorms today, with a pulsing up of intensity followed by a break. This has brought some healthy rain totals, with up to 4 inches over the last 24 hours northwest of Houston, near locations such as Cypress. Most other areas have picked up 1 to 3 inches. Pretty much all of the region’s major bayous and waterways remain within banks, so the issue has primarily been one of brief street flooding.

Based upon radar trends and our most recent high-resolution modeling, it appears likely that one final wave will push through the metro area between 3 and 5 pm, from west to east. This could bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall for some locations, and we cannot rule out some severe impacts such as damaging winds and possibly hail. As this wave should cross our region during the evening commute, please take a little extra care. After this, from approximately 5 to 9 pm, we likely will see some additional light to moderate showers before the mess moves off to our east.

That will be the end of the rain, but it will be replaced by gusty winds from the north-northeast, up to 30 mph in Houston, and perhaps a bit higher along the coast. These gusts should start to subside on Saturday morning, before dying off during the afternoon hours. The weekend still looks splendid and sunny, with chilly mornings and pleasant afternoons in the 70s. Enjoy!

In brief: With today’s update we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for Friday in the Houston area. This means mostly minor impacts, but we cannot rule out some street flooding. The weekend looks much cooler, with sunny skies and generally very pleasant weather.

Stage 1 flood alert

We are not expecting widespread flooding issues on Friday, but there is clearly the potential for heavy rainfall across the Houston metro area. In terms of timing, the most likely period will be from late Thursday evening through late Friday evening. There is the potential for impacts both during the morning and evening commute on Friday, not to mention school pickups and after-school activities. Most of Houston should pick up 1 to 3 inches over the course of the 24-hour period, which is totally manageable. However there are likely to be spots that pick up more than this, with the potential for isolated totals of 3 to 5 inches. For this reason we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert for all of Friday. We expect rainfall potential to fall off quickly by Friday night, midnight. Saturday looks fine, with clearing skies.

Thursday

Houston reached 88 degrees on Wednesday, but I believe we’re done with the very warm weather for now. Skies today will be mostly cloudy and this should help limit high temperatures for most locations in the mid-80s. An initial push of slightly drier air should arrive this afternoon, allowing low temperatures tonight to fall into the 60. In terms of rainfall, we will see the potential for scattered showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms today and into this early evening. However, there won’t be anything too special about this activity. We’ll start to see increasing chances for rainfall after sunset on Thursday and into the overnight hours.

Friday

The much discussed cold front will essentially stall over the Houston metro area on Friday, and this will serve as a focus for showers and heavy rainfall. (There is a very slight chance for severe weather, such as damaging winds and hail). There remains some uncertainty as to where the heaviest band of rainfall will set up, it could be along the Highway 59/I-69 corridor, or a little north or south. But we do feel like somewhere is going to see 2 to 4 inches, with higher amounts possible. Generally we expect most of the region to pick up 1 to 3 inches. This potential for rainfall will persist into the evening Friday before the front finally pushes off the coast.

In terms of temperatures, I expect everyone to be in the 60s on Friday morning, with inland areas remaining there while coastal areas may warm into the mid-70s. By early Saturday the entire area will be in the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

Although some clouds may linger on Saturday morning, we now pretty much expect wall-to-wall sunshine for the weekend. Saturday’s highs may peak around 70 degrees, whereas Sunday reaches the mid-70s. Friday night and much of Saturday will be quite breezy, with southerly gusts reaching 25 or even 30 mph (especially along the coast). These winds should die down by Saturday afternoon or evening, so Sunday looks placid in this regard. Lows on Saturday night should again drop into the 50s, with the potential for upper 40s for far inland areas. Both Saturday and Sunday will enjoy low humidity. This is a really nice cold blast for early May, so enjoy it before summer arrives!

Next week

We’ll warm back up to the mid-80s by the middle of next week before a weaker front may push into the region and bring some rain chances and slightly cooler conditions. We’ll see.