Eric Berger

The summer solstice arrived late on Sunday night, at 10:32 pm CT. The solstice, of course, is the longest day and the shortest night in the Northern Hemisphere, and results from the 23.4-degree tilt in the Earth’s axis and the planet’s rotation around the Sun. The solstice begins a three-month period known as “astronomical summer.”

In Houston, of course, it generally feels summer-like from June through September. Although our days will now slowly begin to grow shorter, due to our proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and a lag in oceanic warming (and cooling), most of our summer heat comes after the longest day of the year.

The following map, shared by Brian Brettschneider on Twitter, shows the the time of the sunset across the United States and Canada on the summer solstice. This is affected both by the solstice as well as time zones that humans have created around the Earth. The area that sees 24 hours of daylight on the solstice, of course, lies above the Arctic Circle.

As for our weather this week, we will experience a couple of more wet and slightly cooler days before high temperatures return into the mid-90s for the second half of this week.

Monday and Tuesday

Our weather over the next couple of days will be driven by a cool front—and we’re using the meteorological definition of a front, because it won’t have too much effect on how things feel out there. This front will act to increase the likelihood of rainfall on Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday morning. I don’t think we’re going to see widespread, heavy rainfall, but some of the showers that develop will be capable of fairly intense rainfall rates. I think much of Houston will see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, with a few bullseyes of 3 or more inches possible. Our best rain chances will likely come during the overnight hours.

In terms of temperatures, most of us will see highs around 90 degrees for the next two days due to the combination of cloud cover and the front. Will you feel it? If you live inland of Interstate 69/Highway 59, and you go outside on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning, it may feel slightly drier outside.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

For the second half of the week we should see mostly sunny skies as high pressure begins to build over the area. Highs will likely rebound into the mid-90s and we’ll be right back into full-on summer days in Houston, with overnight lows of around 80 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is a little bit less certain, as yet another front is likely to approach the region. However, this one very likely will stall out before reaching the Houston metro area. Nonetheless it may introduce some clouds and rain chances for the weekend. It does look like Saturday will be mostly sunny, and while there may be some scattered showers, the chances for wider rainfall likely will not come until Sunday. But all of these details will need to be hashed out in future forecasts.

Hi all. I’m jumping in on Father’s Day to say that we are seeing some fairly high atmospheric moisture levels this morning that may, in turn, lead to at least scattered thunderstorms today, if not more widespread storms. This will provide a contrast to the recent string of hot and sunny days Houston has experienced.

The next three days all look fairly wet for the region. Given the higher moisture levels, a disturbed atmosphere, and a weak “cool” front on Monday night and Tuesday, each day should see elevated rain chances. Sunday through Tuesday will each probably have about a 50 to 70 percent chance of rain during the daytime, with lesser odds at night. The better rain chances will come closer to the coast, and for the eastern half of the region.

In terms of three-day accumulations, most of the area will probably see 0.5 to 1.5 inches if rain. However, for areas closer to the coast, and east of Interstate 45, it would not surprise me to see some areas pick up 3 to 5 inches between now and Tuesday night.

It’s not going to be a total washout, by any means. And areas west and north of Houston will likely see a fair bit of sunshine over the next few days. But if you’re heading to the beach to celebrate dad today, you probably should also buy him an umbrella as a gift—just in case.

We’ll return with a full post on Monday morning.

Good morning. On Wednesday I wrote that it seemed likely the Gulf of Mexico disturbance was going to track east of the Houston region, and now I’m confident that will be the case. As a result, while the Houston region may see some modest rain this weekend, and some higher tides, we should escape significant effects from the tropical system. I’ll discuss this more below.

Thursday

Houston’s high temperature topped out at 97 degrees on Wednesday, and I think we’ll be just a shade lower than that today, with highs generally in the mid-90s across the region. Speaking of shade, you’d better finds some, because skies will be mostly sunny. Winds will be light, out of the east. Clear skies may allow temperatures to drop into the mid-70s overnight.

Friday

Friday will start out a lot like Thursday, but as the tropical system begins to lift north into the central and then northern Gulf of Mexico, we may see some rain chances along the coast. Galveston probably has a 40 percent chance of seeing some light showers during the afternoon, with lower chances inland. Otherwise, highs for much of the region will likely be in the mid-90s, with partly to mostly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

The region’s rain chances will probably be highest on Saturday, with perhaps 40 percent coverage of light to moderate showers due to the tropical system. Chances are highest to the east of Interstate 45, where some coastal areas closer to Beaumont and Port Arthur may see 0.5 to 1 inch of rain. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny when it’s not raining. Rain chances are lower on Sunday, probably in the 20 percent range. Look for highs in the low- to mid-90s both days.

Next week

By around Monday, a late season cool front is expected to move into northern Texas. While I don’t think it will bring much dry air to the Houston region, it should bring increased rain chances to our region from about Monday night into early Wednesday. It’s too early to say much about accumulations, but certainly an inch or so of rainfall would not be unwelcome after our recent heat spell. This may also push highs into the low 90s for a few days—also not unwelcome.

Tropics

The disturbance in the Southern Gulf of Mexico remains a blobby mess, but it should begin to get better organized today, and then start to lift northward. All of the reliable model guidance now brings a tropical depression or weak tropical storm toward Louisiana, with a likely landfall late Friday night or on Saturday. As the storm will probably be sheared, its major rainfall will come to its east, likely over New Orleans, and the coastal Mississippi and Alabama regions. I’d expect 5 to 10 inches of rainfall across widespread areas there, with higher local totals. This is definitely something to consider if New Orleans or travel along Interstate 10 is in your plans this weekend. The good news is that the tropical system should move a little faster than previously anticipated, meaning conditions along the Gulf coast should begin to improve by Sunday.

My family and I were driving through Houston on Tuesday evening, after a long day in the car returning from a family reunion, when the heavens opened up. I certainly did not expect to hit that kind of storm, with winds in excess of 40 mph at some locations, and relatively brief heavy rainfall. But it goes to show you what summertime Houston can do in absence of dominant high pressure and with a sea breeze during the afternoon and evening hours. Today could see similar activity, although I don’t think it will be as widespread.

The other two big stories are the heat and the potential for a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico. I’ll discuss the latter below. But in regard to the heat, Matt shared this sobering statistic with me. Before the storms fired up on Tuesday, Bush Intercontinental Airport hit 98 degrees for the fourth straight day. Since 1888 that has happened only three other times this early in summer: in 1902, 1998, and 2011. All three of those years ended up in the top-15 warmest summers, and 2011 was the warmest summer on record.

Wednesday

Houston remains on the periphery of an intense ridge of high pressure situated over the Western United States. Effectively, this means that we’ll see hot weather, as well as a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening driven by the sea breeze. Coverage should be less than on Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, look for highs again in the upper 90s, with sunny skies. Lows tonight will remain around 80 degrees, or just below.

Thursday

Another day like Wednesday, albeit with temperatures perhaps a degree or two cooler, and rain chances a little bit lower as well. For most of us, this will simply be a hot and sunny day.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Beginning Friday our weather will be largely dependent on the development of the tropical system in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and its eventual track northward. I’ll discuss the system in the section below, but for now our forecast—which is very much subject to change—is as follows.

Friday will likely see mostly sunny conditions, with highs in the mid-90s, and increasing rain chances along the coast. These showers may spread inland overnight. However, as Matt has discussed, this likely will be a lopsided tropical system, likely with the vast majority of its effects on its eastern side. So if the “center” makes landfall even slightly east of Houston, we’ll fall on the dry side of the storm. I think this will happen. So while there is definitely a chance of heavy rainfall in the Houston region on Saturday, it now seems more probable that we’ll see little to no precipitation.

Regardless of what happens on Saturday, by Sunday the system should be moving away from the region, leaving us with mostly sunny skies, a lingering chance of showers and thunderstorms, and highs in the mid-90s.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance

The disorganized system of showers and thunderstorms is still expected to coalesce into a tropical depression or storm this week, and the National Hurricane Center gives it 90 percent chance of doing so. As this system presently lacks a center, there is the usual uncertainty in track and intensity forecasts. With that said, the overall pattern now favors a more northward track, and this likely would bring the low pressure system toward southern Louisiana, rather than Texas. This is why I’m leaning against heavy rainfall in Houston this weekend, but not ready to make a definitive call. I definitely have more concerns about Louisiana, however, especially the New Orleans area which may see 10 to 15 inches of rainfall.

In terms of intensity, the combination of wind shear and ingestion of dry air will likely limit this system’s potential to that of a low-end tropical storm. But again, it’s difficult to say anything definitive at this time.