Eric Berger

We’re done with the organized, heavy rainfall. Really. We may still see some scattered showers today, but we’re heading toward sunnier skies and warmer weather. The forecast for the weekend remains somewhat in flux, with a chance of showers on Saturday, but overall it looks reasonably nice for the Memorial Day period.

Wednesday

The radar is quiet across the region this morning, and moisture levels have fallen. We still may see a few scattered, short-lived showers pop up this afternoon, as temperatures approach their highs in the mid- to upper-80s, but I think most of us will stay dry. Skies will see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with lows tonight dropping into the low 70s.

Thursday

As the atmosphere stabilizes, and high pressure expands westward into Texas, our rain chances will drop even lower on Thursday to less than 10 percent. With partly to mostly sunny skies, highs should climb into the upper 80s with only light southerly winds. Lows Thursday night will again be warm, only dropping into the low 70s.

Friday

With partly sunny skies, highs on Friday may work themselves toward 90 degrees for some inland parts of the metro area on Friday. The big question is how far a weak front will get on Friday night, and what that means for our weather this weekend. For Friday, this will bring a slight chance of showers during the afternoon and evening hours for areas north of Interstate 10.

Saturday, Sunday, and Memorial Day

This front, and a passing disturbance, will probably drive more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday morning as it pushes closer to the Houston area. In terms of accumulations, I think we’re talking tenths of an inch for most, with the better rain chances north of Interstate 10. I don’t think the showers will persist all day, as the disturbance driving them should move on.

The question, again, is what happens to the front. I think it will get shoved to the coast, of not off. If this happens we can probably expect partly sunny skies on Saturday afternoon, with highs in the mid-80s. Sunday would be rather pleasant, with drier air and highs in the mid-80s and sunny skies. Some clouds may return for Memorial Day. Rain chances look low for Sunday and Monday, as high pressure fills in, and don’t really return until the middle of next week.

Good morning. Not going to lie, the intensity of storms on Monday surprised me. First, some areas northwest of Houston saw as much as 6 inches of rainfall. Then, early on Monday evening parts of Austin County—only about 60 miles west of Houston—saw about 10 inches in a short period of time. So it’s with more than a little trepidation that I approach the forecast today.

Generally, we should see fairly calm conditions this morning, with storm coverage increasing this afternoon as temperatures warm. A flash flood watch is in effect for central and western parts of our region due to the potential for additional heavy rainfall today.

Tuesday

The atmosphere remains plenty moist to support heavy rainfall today, particularly north and west of the Highway 59/Interstate 69 corridor. This includes the particularly hard hit areas of Austin County. In this general area we are likely to see widespread accumulations of 1 to 3 inches today, with higher isolated totals approaching 5 inches. Given the sodden soils well west of Houston, this could cause some problems both on roadways and along swollen creeks. These storms are likely to develop after noon, and wane during the evening as the sun begins to set. Highs will otherwise be about 80 degrees.

Wednesday

Atmospheric moisture levels should begin to fall on Wednesday, and accordingly we expect much less coverage of showers, and less intensity where rain does fall. Overall, perhaps 30 percent of the area will see rain on Wednesday, with highs reaching perhaps the mid-80s. Skies remain partly to mostly cloudy.

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure continues to build over the area, we expect these to be mostly sunny days, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. This should allow for the region to begin to dry out.

Saturday, Sunday and Memorial Day

Let’s start with the fact that we have questions about the weekend forecast. It will be complicated by an approaching, weak front that appears likely to stall out just north of Houston. Skies will probably start out at least partly cloudy on Saturday, and depending on the movement of the front, areas north of Interstate 10 could see some scattered showers during the afternoon and evening hours. These may even spread across the entire region. Not helpful, I know.

Sunday’s weather will also depend on the front’s position, but there is a better chance for more sunshine on Sunday. Both days should produce highs in the upper 80s. Memorial Day will probably fall on the partly to mostly sunny side of things, but overall confidence is low. Sorry, I know everyone has weekend plans, and would like some certainty.

We’re sick of the rain. You’re sick of the rain. But it’s not done with us yet.

Moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico has fueled strong showers and thunderstorms across much of Houston today, but the effects have been worst just north and east of the city. Areas between Humble and Crosby have seen 5 inches of rain today, leading to significant street flooding in some locations. So far, bayous and creeks remain within banks.

The worst storms are presently slowly marching north of the hardest hit areas, but additional rounds of showers will be possible this afternoon. Activity should begin to wane by around 6pm CT, and shut off entirely by around sunset.

More rain is possible on Tuesday, but it should be less intense, and concentrated more to the south and west of Houston. How confident are we in that forecast? Not particularly given how badly today’s heavy rains were forecast.

Good morning. The two major talking points heading into a new week are recapping the wet week that was, and looking ahead to when these rains will end. (They will end, I promise, despite our repeatedly wrong forecasts about the timing of all this). First of all, let’s look at the region’s rainfall from Sunday morning, May 16, through Sunday, May 23. Anywhere in red on the map below received 5 inches during the last week, and the areas in Barney purple got 10 inches or more. Those few pixels in white received 20 inches.

Some areas near Matagorda Bay and the general region of Beaumont and Lake Charles flooded significantly during this event. However, the Houston region—which we define as Harris County and immediately adjacent counties—largely fared OK. In fact, these rains obliterated an emerging drought. Last week’s drought report showed only a few pockets of “abnormally dry” soils near Houston, and those will be gone when the new report comes out this Thursday. The upper Texas coast in an excellent posture, rainfall wise, as we approach summer.

Of course the rains didn’t end on Sunday. Some parts of our region picked up another 1 to 2 inches on Sunday, as deep tropical moisture continued to funnel into the Texas coast. If you remember, over the course of the last week, this humble website initially predicted the widespread rains would end on Friday, and then on Saturday, and then on Sunday. And well, he were are on Monday morning, and showers are still streaming into Matagorda.

So when is it really going to end, Eric, you may ask? My answer is probably Wednesday, and for sure on Thursday. More in the daily forecast below.

Monday

The overall setup remains the same, with moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico today. However, areas east of Interstate 45 are increasingly unlikely to see more than light rain today and for the rest of the week.

However, areas along and west of Interstate 45—including the hard hit Matagorda Bay region—may continue to see at least moderate showers today. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible in these regions. Skies will otherwise be cloudy, with high temperatures getting up to around 80 degrees. Rain chances should slacken considerably this evening.

Tuesday

Rain chances will return on Tuesday, although we expect less coverage as the potential for moderate to heavy rain continues to slide further west of Houston. Highs will again reach around 80 degrees, or perhaps a degree or two warmer. The sunshine may peek out through the clouds for a little bit, but no promises.

Wednesday

The reason we’re confident that the rains will end this week is that high pressure will build into Houston from the east and limit the ability of moisture at the surface to rise. We expect Wednesday to be somewhat of a transition day, with partly sunny skies but still a lingering chance—maybe 30 percent?—of light showers. Highs will reach the mid-80s.

Thursday and Friday

We’re pretty confident that high pressure will lead to mostly sunny skies for the second half of the week. This will drive temperatures into the mid-80s to about 90 degrees, with warm nights in the low 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

Right now the weekend looks to remain mostly sunny, with continued warm temperatures in the upper 80s. There is a slight chance of showers on Saturday, but for now I’m thinking we’re going to enter a mostly dry pattern that will become difficult to break.