Eric Berger

Good morning. The overall forecast remains on track with a front moving in Wednesday night and cooler weather beyond. After a messy period of widespread rainfall, the weekend outlook once again looks absolutely gorgeous.

Tuesday

Patchy fog has formed across the area, as temperatures in some locations have dropped to dewpoint temperatures. This should burn off in fairly short order as air temperatures rise, with mostly sunny skies this afternoon and highs near 80 degrees. Tonight will be mild, with partly cloudy skies and lows dropping to around 60 degrees in the city of Houston, with slightly cooler conditions inland and warmer along the coast. This will be the warmest night of the week, with light southeasterly winds.

Wednesday

Clouds will start to form ahead of the front, so this should help to moderate highs a bit on Wednesday, perhaps to the upper 70s. It does not appear as though there will be a discrete line of showers with the front, but rather the rains on Wednesday and Wednesday night should be more spread out, and last a little bit longer. Overall, I think most of the area will see 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rain from Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday. (This will be something to keep in mind going to and from the ballpark if there’s a Game 7 of the World Series). The front itself pushes through the region later on Wednesday and early Thursday. Overnight lows should drop into the 50s.

Thursday

I’m expecting rain showers to end by around sunrise, or perhaps a little later, from northwest to southeast. In the front’s wake we’ll see mostly cloudy skies and cooler weather, with highs likely ranging from the upper 50s north of Houston to mid-60s right along the coast. With moderate northerly winds of 10 to 15 mph, this will be a chilly day. As skies clear later Thursday or overnight, temperatures will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with 40s outside of the city.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This will be a splendid stretch of fall-like weather, with sunny skies and cooler weather. Highs will climb from the mid-60s on Friday to lower 70s on Sunday. Overnight lows will remain fairly cool as well, likely in the 50s for most, but colder in outlying areas.

Next week

We’ll see a gradual warm up next week, with highs likely reaching about 80 degrees by Wednesday or Thursday. After that point you can probably pencil in another front ahead of next weekend. Dare we dream of three lovely fall weekends in a row? Yes, we can dream of such.

Houston has enjoyed a handful of cold fronts so far this fall, but after a few days we’ve always warmed back up into the upper 80s or low 90s. But this week, after a stunning weekend, we’ll barely warm up to 80 degrees before a strong front arrives on Wednesday. And after that front we’ll be in the 60s and 70s for awhile.

I also wanted to spare a few words for the Houston Astros, who found themselves in a challenging spot after a grand slam in the first inning on Sunday night. And still, they battled back, clawing even with the Braves, and then ultimately winning. Now the hometown team returns to Houston for two more games, needing to win both. Minute Maid Park has a roof, so weather won’t be a concern on the field. However it’s possible that the timing of the next front coincides with the aftermath of Game 7 on Wednesday, assuming there’s a Game 7. (And we are). More on this below.

Monday

Today will bring more great weather to Houston. Highs will get into the upper 70s to 80 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints will creep up, so conditions will feel a bit more humid than we experienced over the weekend, but the air won’t be uncomfortable by any means. Winds will be light, generally out of the southeast. Overnight lows tonight will generally fall to around 60 degrees in the city, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas, and warmer along the coast.

Tuesday

Some patchy fog will be possible on Tuesday morning, but that should burn off rather quickly, leaving us with another mostly sunny day and highs near 80 degrees. Overnight lows will again fall about 60 in Houston.

Wednesday

We’ll start to see some cloud cover on Wednesday, and with the onshore flow this day will feel a little bit more humid with highs likely ranging from 75 to 80 degrees. The front’s timing remains somewhat uncertain, but I’d expect it to come through some time between Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning. We probably will see some briefly moderate to heavy rain with the front—hence my concern about the aftermath of a potential Game 7—but I’m not sure exactly when this is coming. Most areas probably will receive about 1 inch of rain with the front. Hopefully we’ll be able to firm up the front’s timing in tomorrow’s post.

Thursday

Today’s a sweater day! Clouds should persist for much of Thursday, and this will help to confine high temperatures into the low to mid-60s for the city, with possibly the 50s for inland areas. With moderate northerly winds (nothing like last week), this will be a chilly day and lows Thursday night may drop into the 40s for all areas but the coast.

Friday

Friday should start out clear and cold, and despite sunny skies I’d expect highs to only reach the mid-60s. Winds should be fairly light out of the north. Expect another chilly night, with much of the area reaching the 40s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend looks amazing, with highs of around 70 degrees and lots of sunshine. Rain chances are bascially zero. Plan your outdoor activities with confidence. The early part of next week should bring highs in the 70s with partly to mostly sunny skies and nicely dry air.

Good morning. The cold front is through, and it’s starting to feel a lot more like fall. We’ll see a couple of breezy and cooler days before a truly sublime fall weekend. Temperatures warm a little next week before the probable arrival of another front by Wednesday or so.

Thursday

Temperatures will warm into the mid- to upper-70s today for much of the region, with sunny skies. But perhaps the bigger story will be a persistent northwesterly wind that may at times gust to 30 or 40 mph. What is driving this? Houston is caught between high pressure to our west, and the surface low—the front that crossed our region on Wednesday—off to our east. At the mid-levels of the atmosphere, the pattern looks like this:

If this map is a little confusing, simply remember that air wants to move from higher pressure to lower pressures. On Thursday, and to a lesser extent Friday, our region will be caught within a tight pressure gradient as air flows from high pressure to our west, toward lower pressure eastward. This is what the wind flow map will look like later this morning.

Winds will back off a little this evening, but the potential for gusts of about 20 mph will continue to mix air at the surface. As a result, low temperatures will likely only fall into the mid-50s for urban areas, with temperatures several degrees cooler for inland areas, and warmer along the coast.

Friday

Although the pressure gradient will ease somewhat on Friday, we’ll still see winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph during the daytime. This should be the coolest daytime, with highs perhaps reaching only the low 70s under mostly sunny skies. As winds begin to finally die down Friday evening, it will set the stage for ideal cooling conditions, and this should be the coldest night of the fall so far. Inland areas should see lows in the 40s, with the 50s everywhere else except possibly right on the coast.

Saturday

This will very nearly be a perfect day, with sunny skies, highs in the mid- to upper-70s and light winds. Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer than Friday night.

Sunday

By Sunday light winds should return from offshore, but our airmass will remain pretty dry overall. Look for highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees, with sunny skies. Trick-or-treating temperatures will be in the mid-70s, and it will be rather pleasant.

Next week

Dewpoints will climb into the low 60s next week, so our air will feel a little more humid as highs get back into the low 80s. But it won’t really feel summer-like. Some showers may return by mid-week ahead of what looks like our next front. This should reach the area by Wednesday or so, and although it probably won’t be as strong as the current front, it should still bring overnight lows back into the 50s. Probably.

Winter outlook

Last week, we published a winter outlook. Today, if you’re so inclined, Matt, Maria, and I will discuss this and answer some of your questions in a Facebook Live at 11:30 am CT. Hope to see you there!

Good morning. A strong cold front will sweep across Houston this morning, bringing heavy rainfall and potentially damaging winds as it passes. In the front’s wake rains will quickly end, and with dropping dewpoints we’ll see drier air and cooler weather. Although Thursday and Friday remain somewhat breezy, our weather should be fair and fall-like through the weekend.

Wednesday

As of 6:20 am the line of storms associated with the front is nearing College Station, and should reach the western edge of Harris County by around 7 to 8 am. It should push through the city of Houston itself from 9 to 10 am and be off the coast by about noon. Most areas will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rain as the front moves through, with a few areas seeing more where storms are strongest. The main hazard is damaging winds, with hail and perhaps a tornado as a lesser threat. These storms may be briefly nasty, so they’re best avoided if possible. Dewpoints will drop after the front moves through, and we should see highs this afternoon in the 70s with clearing skies. Winds will blow from the north-northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s for most locations except the coast.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of sunny and cooler days, with highs generally in the low to mid-70s. On both days, but especially Thursday, a tight gradient will lead to breezy conditions. Gusts on Thursday could reach about 30 mph or even slightly higher at some locations, with gusts still in the 20s possible on Friday. Overnight lows will reach their nadir on Friday night and Saturday morning, likely dropping into the upper 40s for areas outside the urban core of Houston, and away from the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks amazing. Saturday should see sunny skies, highs in the mid-70s, and lighter winds. Overnight lows into Sunday will be a few degrees warmer as winds begin to return from offshore. Halloween looks quite nice as well, with more mostly sunny skies and highs near 80 degrees. Temperatures at the hour of trick-or-treating should be in the upper 70s for most locations, with enough dry air to keep things quite nice.

Next week

Some uncertainty remains, of course, but generally we should see a warming trend of temperatures back into the low 80s next week, although right now humidity levels won’t likely get oppressively high. Another front probably comes into the picture by Wednesday or Thursday, potentially setting the stage for another stellar weekend in early November. But that forecast is in pencil for now.