Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we talk about the impact of early season fronts along the Gulf coast, which are somewhat paradoxical. We also look ahead to increasing rain chances due to a front and potentially moisture from a tropical system in the Pacific Ocean.

The paradox of early season fronts

From a practical standpoint, it’s really a misnomer to call the first fronts of late summer and early fall “cold fronts.” In a strictly meteorological sense, they are. But when these early fronts usher in drier air and clearing skies (but not much cooler air) they make it more efficient for the lower atmosphere to heat up. And that’s what we are going to see over the next couple of days: sunshine, hottish days with lower humidity, and mild nights. In fact, some locations north and west of Harris County may dip into the upper 60s tonight. That is not “cold,” but it is a nice departure from very humid nights we’ve experienced since June. It’s also a foretaste of what is to come in a few weeks, when we should see some stronger fronts trundling down into the area.

Wednesday

As a slightly drier air mass moves into place today we will see highs, generally, in the mid-90s across the region. We cannot rule out a slight chance of showers for areas south of Interstate 10 later this afternoon, with daytime heating, but most of us should remain dry. Skies, otherwise, will be sunny with a light northwest wind in place. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-70s in Houston, with cooler conditions in place for areas further inland.

Thursday and Friday

With a drier air mass in place we can expect sunny days with hot temperatures in the mid-90s in Houston, and upper-90s for areas further inland. Nights will drop into the 70s for most of the region. The air will be a little drier, but not crazily so.

Saturday and Sunday

By later on Friday we should see the resumption of an onshore flow that will increase atmospheric moisture levels. This will generate some clouds, and lower daytime temperatures, likely in the lower 90s on Saturday and pushing us into the upper 80s on Sunday. There are a couple of things we just don’t know enough about that will drive rain chances and amounts this weekend. First up is a slow-moving front that will be pushing toward (and possibly into) the region. This will destabilize the atmosphere. The region may also see a surge of moisture from Hurricane Lorena, which is presently in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and will be moving into Mexico and West Texas this weekend. All of that to say, we will perhaps see rain chances in the vicinity of 40 percent on Saturday, and 60 percent or higher on Sunday. Something to monitor if you have plans this weekend.

Next week

Our weather next week will depend on whether the region sees any impacts from the aforementioned front. Generally I would expect highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees, with some lingering rain chances to start the week followed by a drier pattern. We’ll see!

Atlantic Tropics

There’s a rather ominous looking red blob at the moment in the National Hurricane Center’s seven-day tropical outlook. At this point there is no clear guidance on where this storm will go, or how strong it will get. My general sense is that the odds of something making it into the Gulf from this system are fairly low, however. Head over to The Eyewall for all of the gory details.

In brief: Today’s post reviews the summer of 2025 in Houston. Some residents may believe this one felt cooler than is typical. We see what the data says about that. Additionally, we look ahead to this week’s weather in the wake of a front that finally pushed through over the weekend.

A review of summer 2025

August has come to an end. For most of us, in terms of weather at least, that is cause for celebration. Not because the kids are back in school, and teachers back at work. Not because summer vacation is over. But rather, because August is the hottest and most severe month for weather in Houston, and cooler conditions are on the horizon. September 1 also marks the start of meteorological fall, so it allows us to step back and ask, how hot was this summer?

My immediate reaction is that this summer felt fairly mild. There were no prolonged periods of high pressure and blazingly hot days. However, when we dig a little deeper, we find a different answer. Matt already wrote about this in one of our monthly Q&A’s, but this summer has been sneakily hot. When we look at the “average” temperature for June, July, and August of this year, we get a value of 86.0 degrees. This is simply the daily high, and daily low, divided by two for the last three months. It turns out this summer was the sixth hottest June, July, and August in nearly 150 years of Houston temperature records.

You might say, well, it did not feel that hot. And you’re right, the days were not blistering hot. In terms of daily highs, our average of 94.9 degrees only ranked 12th on record in Houston. My sense is that summer days felt cooler because a) we had more clouds and periodic rainfall to help cool days off, and b) recent summers such as 2022 and 2023 were so incredibly hot that they have reset our expectations of normal. Where this summer was exceptionally hot, however, was at night, when the daily minimum temperature averaged 77.0 degrees. This is tied for second, all time, behind only 2023 (77.4 degrees).

So what’s going on here? Well, it’s complicated. Certainly the urban heat island effect (widespread sprawl and concrete, which absorbs more heat) is playing a role. But Galveston and College Station also recorded summers that ranked in the top 10, in terms of overall heat. So there is more happening in the background here. The main driver of our warmer nights is the Gulf, which greatly influences our nighttime temperatures. This is due in no small part to warmer oceanic temperatures around the planet. Our world is heating up, and in Houston we are experiencing that even during a “mild” summer.

Tuesday

Following widespread rainfall over the holiday weekend, showers this morning are mostly offshore after a weak front has moved into the area. I think we’ll still see a slight chance of rain later this morning (30 percent, maybe) for areas along and south of Interstate 10, but the trend is clear. We are going to see an influx of moderately drier air over the next couple of days. Skies today should be mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the vicinity of 90 degrees. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-70s in the city, with slightly cooler temperatures possible for inland areas.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be the driest days, which in early September means there still will be some humidity. Still, it should feel a little bit drier outside, with highs likely reaching the lower 90s in Houston, and mid-90s for some inland areas. Skies will be sunny, with virtually no chance of rain. I think Wednesday night into Thursday morning will see the “coolest” weather, with some inland locations potentially hitting the upper 60s. Obviously this is not cold, but the nights and mornings should feel a little bit more mild.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Some time on Friday, probably, the pattern will change as the onshore flow returns. This will raise humidity levels and should give us a warmer night on Friday, and start to increase rain chances this weekend. At the same time another front will approach our area from the north. It is not entirely clear whether this front will push down into Houston and off the coast, or stall. But the bottom line is that we probably will go from highs in the low 90s on Saturday to the upper 80s on Sunday and Monday, with a decent chance (maybe 30 percent) of showers on Saturday and better chances on Sunday into early next week. I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of the heavy rains we experienced over Labor Day weekend, but I cannot be sure of that. Most of next week should see highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees.

In brief: We interrupt your Labor Day weekend just to reinforce our messaging that widespread rainfall is likely today and Monday, and there is a risk of excessive rainfall particularly on Sunday. We are calling for a Stage 1 flood alert on our scale out of an abundance of caution.

If we check the radar as of late morning on Sunday there is a large mass of showers and thunderstorms to the north of the Houston metro area, pretty much along and north of Highway 105, which runs through Conroe. These storms are slowly moving south and will have some impact on the Houston region today, although we still have some questions about how much.

The background factors are a slow-moving, or essentially stalled front that should sag down into the Houston region today. The atmosphere is already laden with moisture, and the front will provide a spark to generate precipitation. For these reasons we face the potential for heavy rainfall in our region today, and we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert through Monday. This means there should be mostly minor flooding impacts, with the potential for frontage roads and low-lying streets to back up. Not everyone will see rain, and fewer still heavy rainfall.

My general sense is that the mass of storms to our north should mostly remain to the north. But there is certainly a risk of re-development over central or coastal parts of the region later today. The environment for Monday also should be favorable for additional showers and thunderstorms, although the potential for flooding appears to be slightly less. The bottom line is that, as you enjoy the Labor Day holiday weekend in Houston, please be weather aware, and keep an eye on the radar as you venture out and about.

In brief: In today’s post we take a look back at Hurricane Katrina, and what has changed in the 20 years since then. Additionally we discuss a front that will slog into the area and make for a soggy weekend. However, we do expect drier and cooler weather for much of next week, which is a fine way to start September.

Katrina at 20 years

As many as a quarter of a million people evacuated from New Orleans to Houston before and after Hurricane Katrina struck the city 20 years ago, today. My hope is that, if you’re from Louisiana and reading this site, that you have found a good home in the greater Houston area. One thing I love about this city is that we are generally a welcoming people, with a warm culture that rewards hard work. Hurricanes are awful disasters, tearing apart not just physical structures but communities and human bonds. In that sense Katrina is the most wrenching storm of our lifetimes, utterly transforming New Orleans and upending so many lives.

Katrina marked a defining moment in my career. By 2005 I had been writing about science for the Houston Chronicle for half a decade, and had very recently begun a science blog for the newspaper called “SciGuy.” (The Chronicle has taken it offline, but you can find it on the wayback machine). As I had written about the “big one” hitting southern Louisiana before, I decided to go all-in on covering the storm online. It was my first real experience writing about weather, forecast models, and meteorology in real time. Three weeks later I went even deeper when Hurricane Rita threatened Houston and prompted a horrendous evacuation. That experience helped me realize that it was possible to compete with television stations online in weather forecasting. It was the beginning of a journey that led to me getting an education in meteorology, becoming a meteorologist, and starting Space City Weather 10 years later. And here we are.

Finally, I worry a lot about what would happen if a storm like Katrina threatened the Gulf coast again. It surely will. Certainly our ability to predict where a storm will go, and how strong it will get, has improved dramatically in 20 years. But beyond that, as a society, I fear we are in a worse position. The public’s trust in the federal government has been shaken. For example, in the wake of Hurricane Helene last year FEMA workers were harassed. In terms of a media environment, no one trusts anyone, and misinformation about weather is rampant online. Heck, we cannot even agree on what to call the Gulf any more. Hurricanes rip at the fabric of our societies and governments, and that fabric is weaker than it was two decades ago; our communities and institutions more riven by politics and mistrust. I have spent some time over the last week reading government reports from 20 years ago in the wake of Katrina that assessed failures (i.e. this bipartisan report from Congress), and it is painfully obvious we have not heeded many of the lessons that Katrina taught us. We are bound to learn them again with future storms.

Friday

We are still watching for the possibility showers and thunderstorms later today, which could impact Friday Night Lights and the beginning of high school football. Overall chances are pretty low, perhaps in the range of 20 percent. But the atmosphere is perturbed enough that anything that gets going could develop into something with a fair bit of lightning this afternoon or evening. Otherwise we can expect a hot and mostly sunny day, with high temperatures in the mid-90s for most locations away from the coast. Clouds will increase tonight, with lows dropping into the upper 70s.

Saturday

A cool front will approach and move into the city on Saturday. Once again I want to be clear about expectations. We are not at the point of the the year when fronts come barreling into the region and one can step outside and say, “ahh, that’s refreshing.” Maybe October for that. So this front will move in and then dry air should slowly accumulate over the next few days. Alright, so Saturday is still going to be pretty warm (low 90s) and humid. We are also going to see a healthy chance of rain, about 50 percent, that will continue for much of the Labor Day weekend. It won’t be wall to wall rain for sure, but there should be rounds of showers that add up to 1 to 2 inches over the weekend, with isolated areas getting more. Lows on Saturday night will probably remain stubbornly in the upper 70s.

Sunday and Monday

I think rain chances will probably peak on Sunday before falling back a bit to about 50 percent on Labor Day. This will help moderate high temperatures, keeping them at about 90 degrees, with nights in the mid-70s. The bottom line is that yes, you probably will be able to find some sunny spots of weather this weekend, but you’re also going to need to be dodging showers that could bring some spurts of moderate to heavy rainfall. Matt and I will be watching things this weekend, and if an update is warranted regarding the potential for flooding, we’ll have something for you. But for the most part we expect these to be nuisance showers rather than something that is seriously impactful to mobility.

Next week

Rain chances should drop significantly by Tuesday. We generally should remain in a pattern where there’s a northerly flow next week, and possibly into next weekend. This means, I think, that we will see mostly sunny days with highs in the low 90s, and nights in the low 70s. Eventually (by Monday or so) we probably will start to feel some drier air that does knock down humidity a bit.

Finally, I don’t want to give anyone false hope, but the European model has been hinting at the possibility of a slightly stronger front by Friday-ish of next week for a couple of days now. I’m not certain that will happen, but it does seem possible. We shall see.