Eric Berger

In brief: This post offers a look back at our very warm fall, and asks whether this warmer pattern is likely to carry over into the winter. Spoiler: the answer is most likely yes. However that doesn’t entirely preclude one or two sharp cold snaps this winter. At the end of the post, be sure and check out some winterization tips for your home from our partner, Reliant.

So far this fall in Houston has not felt very fall-like, especially the daytime temperatures. I did a little bit of digging this morning, and found that in all of its records dating back more than 120 years, Houston has never had a fall this warm, at least through early November. In this case, I’m defining fall in the meteorological sense, the months of September, October, and November.

This year, the average high temperature from September 1 to November 7 has been 90.7 degrees. In case you were wondering, no, the average high temperature for this period has never been above 90 degrees before in Houston. The graphic below, for simplicity’s sake, only shows the average high in Houston since 1970, when the city’s official temperature station moved to Bush Intercontinental Airport. But the bottom line is that, in our recorded history, Houston has never been this hot during the fall. And yes, this is the type of pattern we would expect in a warming world.

The question then, is this: If fall has been so warm, can we have any expectation of a meaningful winter? Will it snow? Will it freeze? Here, then, is our winter outlook for the period of December, January, and February.

Winter outlook

We’ll start with La Niña, since forecasters are fairly confident that at least a modest cooling of the Pacific equatorial waters will set in during the coming months. The threshold for La Niña is -0.5 degrees C, and this is expected to persist during the winter months.

When we see La Niña developing during the winter months for the northern hemisphere, that tends to have fairly predictable effects for the United States. In Texas that means warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier weather. Essentially, we can expect more of the fairly shallow fronts that Houston has experienced so far this fall, with only glancing blows of cooler air.

In terms of precipitation, this generally calmer pattern should also lead to lower-than-normal rainfall. That’s not ideal, since parts of our area are still in a moderate drought. However, our rains over the last week, and additional showers this weekend, leave us in a lot better posture than we were before. The bottom line is that we can generally expect a mild and dry winter.

However—and there’s always a but in meteorology, it seems—there is one caveat to this forecast. Because of the way this pattern sets up, it will block much of the colder Arctic and Canadian air from the lower United States for most of the winter. But that does not exclude the pattern breaking one or two times. If that happens, and it probably will at least once this winter, there will be a large pool of much colder air available to dip down into the southern United States, including Texas.

So just because we anticipate a mild winter, it does not necessary mean we won’t see a freeze, or even a hard freeze with some freezing rain or snow from an Arctic blast. Finally, since I know someone is going to ask it, no the landfall of Hurricane Beryl this summer does not necessarily mean it’s going to snow this winter. We looked into that old wives’ tale a few years ago, and found the odds of snow in a post-hurricane winter are perfectly identical to the odds of snow in any other winter. On average we snow about once every four years.

A message from Reliant

Now is a great time to prepare your home for cooler seasons and prioritize HVAC and home maintenance. Similar to summer, a few conscious choices can make a big difference in your winter electricity bill.

These simple home improvement projects can be done now before winter arrives:

• Get an annual heater tune-up. Make sure your furnace or heat pump is clean and in good working order, so that it can run as efficiently as possible.
• Seal air leaks, commonly around windows, doors, and attics. Weatherstrip exterior doors and add caulk to windows. This helps keep indoor air in and outdoor air out.
• Install an electric water heater timer. This can prevent your water heater from running when you don’t need it.
• Inspect insulation. The best way is to hire a professional to check the insulation throughout your house. If needed, add more to better regulate your home’s temperature and reduce heating costs.
• Have your chimney inspected. Plus, be sure to keep the chimney damper closed when it is not in use.

Reliant provides 24/7 support to customers via phone and online chat. Looking for more winter tips to lower your electricity bill? Visit reliant.com/wintertips.

In brief: Today’s post discusses the ‘why’ of yet another weak front on the way for Houston this weekend, and the potential for some healthy rain chances on Friday night and Saturday morning as it pushes into the region. Sunday and the first half of next week should bring fair weather before another, stronger front likely arrives about a week from now.

Why have we been getting weak fronts?

So far this fall we’ve yet to really get a strong cold front, which brings in a concerted push of colder and drier air down from the north and northwest. I call these “in-your-face” fronts, which you can literally stand outside and feel as they move in. One of the reasons for the lack of these fronts is that the overall pattern has favored glancing blows, which bring in more Pacific air rather than dragging colder Canadian air down into the region.

The GIF image below showcases what will happen this weekend, when a very weak front arrives. The dark blue area over New Mexico is the low-pressure system in the upper level of the atmosphere what will drive the front. Instead of moving due west, it instead goes across the Midwest of the United States and ends up in Michigan by Sunday. This we are getting the tail end of the front’s energy, rather than its full impact. And this translates into a weak push of cooler and drier air.

Thursday

“Low” temperatures this morning across the Houston area are generally in the mid- to upper-70s, which are running nearly 20 degrees above normal. This is because the earlier week front that moved offshore has moved back onshore as a warm front, so we’re feeling the influence of the Gulf of Mexico. We saw some light, patchy showers overnight, but most of today should be rain-free, with partly sunny skies. Expect high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. Winds will be light, generally from the east, at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Friday

This will be another warm, and humid day. However, skies will be mostly cloudy, and we’ll see increasing rain chances during the afternoon hours. As a front approaches, and meshes with ample moisture in the atmosphere, we’ll see very healthy rain chances on Friday night into Saturday. We don’t anticipate any flooding, but if you have plans to be out and about on Friday evening or night, be prepared for the possibility of getting splashed on. Friday night will be warm and humid as well.

Saturday

As a weak front moves into the region, we’ll continue to see fairly decent rain chances on Saturday morning, probably about 50 percent area wide. With mostly cloudy skies, we can probably expect to see high temperatures in the upper 70s, with shower activity waning during the afternoon and evening hours—but we cannot rule out some isolated showers during this time period. Lows on Saturday night should get down to about 70 degrees.

Sunday

We should finally see a little (emphasis on little) bit of drier air on Sunday, but there’s still the potential for some isolated showers during the morning hours at least. Expect partly sunny skies during the afternoon hours, with high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Lows on Sunday night should get into the 60s for most of Houston, which is probably about as best we can do with a dying front like this.

Next week

The first half of next week should see mostly sunny skies, with days in the mid-80s and nights in the upper-60s for the most part. Humidity will be present, but not excessive with slightly lower dewpoints. A stronger front looks likely to move in by Wednesday or so, but we’ll have to wait for the finer details with how cool things get. I’m hoping for some nights in the 50s, which is normal for this time of year.

Tropics

Hurricane Rafael crossed Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and it is now moving toward the central Gulf of Mexico. Eventually it is likely to be rebuffed by high pressure and steered southward toward Mexico. As we’ve been saying for some time, this system is of no real concern to Texas.

In brief: I hope you enjoyed the spell of slightly drier air overnight, because we’re already seeing dewpoints start to rise this morning. The front that pushed through on Tuesday will return this evening as a warm front. Another front arrives Friday night, bringing a decent chance of showers heading into the weekend.

Houston rainfall

We’ve made much of the emerging drought across the greater Houston region in recent weeks, with parts of the area reaching ‘severe’ drought levels after a very dry September and October, along with lots of sunshine and abnormally hot days to speed evaporation. So the prospect of rain to end October and start November was a refreshing one, even if it did lead to some minor flooding inconveniences on Houston roadways.

So how did we do? As the rain gauge map from the Harris County Flood Warning System shows, the vast majority of our region picked up between 1.5 and 4 inches of rainfall over the last week, with some locations in southwest Houston even seeing 6 to 8 inches. This was exactly the kind of rainfall the Houston area needed to pick up before the onset of winter to really help out our soils and foliage. We’ll get official information about the drought status on Thursday, but we’ve definitely improved our situation, especially with less rain needed during shorter days with a lower Sun angle.

Wednesday

We’re holding on to some dry air this morning, but dewpoints will begin to rise pretty quickly today. By this afternoon or evening, pretty much everyone is going to feel Houston humid once again. Skies will be sunny today, with a light northerly wind, and high temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. With the more humid air in place, low temperatures on Wednesday night will only fall to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances return to the forecast on Wednesday night, and we’ll see something on the order of a 1-in-3 chance of light to moderate showers on both Thursday and Friday. Both days will be mostly cloudy, with humid air, and highs around 80 degrees or a touch warmer. So we’re going back to a pretty warm and humid pattern. Some modest change may arrive on Friday night, in the form of a weak front.

Saturday and Sunday

Our region’s weather for the weekend depends on the impacts of said front, which is likely to limp into the area on its last legs Friday night or Saturday. I expect this front to bring at least some scattered showers with it on Friday night into Saturday morning, and possibly some thunderstorms. Rain chances appear best before sunrise on Saturday, but showers could linger into the daytime hours. Highs on Saturday are likely to reach about 80 degrees, with slightly drier air, and lows Saturday night dropping into the 60s. Sunday again will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with a slight chance of showers. Lows on Sunday night will likely drop into the 60s, although it’s difficult to predict how far into the 60s.

Next week

Veterans Day should have fair weather, with sunny skies and highs around 80 degrees. There’s a slight chance of some daytime showers. Tuesday and Wednesday also look warm and fairly humid before the probable arrival of a stronger front on Wednesday or Thursday. The details are still uneven, but the signal for colder and drier air is becoming more convincing.

Tropics

You may have noticed that Hurricane Rafael formed on Tuesday, and should move into the Gulf of Mexico today where it will continue trucking northwest toward the central Gulf. If this were August or September, we’d definitely be on high alert for some tropical activity. But my friends, this is November. And although this has been an extremely warm year for sea surface temperatures, the Gulf is nonetheless going to be pretty hostile to Rafael in terms of dry air and shear as we get toward the weekend.

Put more succinctly, we can expect Rafael to move northwest into the central Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. However, as it does so, it’s probably going to get chopped up by those hostile conditions I mentioned above. My sense is that Rafael eventually succumbs to these conditions and peters out in the Gulf before reaching land, but the bottom line for Texas is that we should have minimal concerns about the system at this time. We’ll of course alert you if that changes.

In brief: A line of storms passing into Houston will clear the area later this morning, and the region should see clearing skies for the second half of the day. Then we’ll have a brief period, about 24 hours, of somewhat drier and cooler air. A second front (no strong storms this time, probably) may bring some similarly cool weather for the weekend, but no promises.

Election Day weather

You don’t need me to tell you that today is Election Day in the United States. We are seeing storms pushing through the metro area this morning, but they will be east of the area by or before noon. After this there will be mostly fine conditions this afternoon, with clearing skies and light winds as a weak front settles in. Space City Weather is apolitical, but that does not mean we don’t encourage everyone to vote. Please find the time to do so today. The weather will be fine.

And then, after the election is over, I would hope that we remember that we are all Americans, stronger when united than divided. Just because your neighbor put out a Trump-Vance sign, or someone down the street has a Harris-Walz bumper sticker, does not mean they’re a bad person. We’ve been too conditioned by heated rhetoric and social media to ‘hate’ those who have different political opinions. If you actually get out and talk to your neighbors, no matter their political views, you’ll find that in Houston we’re all united behind common values, such as: summertime humidity here is the worst.

Tuesday

I expect the line of storms rumbling into Houston this morning to reach the coast by late this morning, and move offshore. Modestly drier air will move in behind the front today with northerly winds at about 10 mph. We should see clearing skies this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 70s for the most part. I expect it to be quite lovely this evening. Overnight lows in Houston will drop into the upper 50s for most locations, with coastal areas remaining in the 60s. For a day or so, it’s going to feel like fall.

Wednesday

By tomorrow we’ll start to see the beginnings of an onshore flow, and dewpoints will recover pretty quickly. So don’t blink or you’ll miss the drier air. Skies will be partly cloudy, with highs of around 80 degrees. Lows on Wednesday night will not drop below 70 degrees for most of Houston with muggier air.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days with high temperatures in the low 80s, and warmish nights with lows around 70 degrees. There will be some low-end rain chances each day, but any accumulations will be slight.

Saturday and Sunday

Another front will approach the region ahead of the weekend, but the forecast models are still pretty divided on how much cooler or drier air it brings. In other words, I’m afraid our forecast for the weekend remains pretty low confidence. If pressed, I’ll say daily highs will be in the upper 70s, with nights in the 60s, but I’m prepared to be wrong. Rain chances aren’t zero, but they’re also not very high, maybe 20 percent daily. We had a question from the Houston Marathon about long training runs for this weekend, and at this point I wouldn’t be overly concerned about rain chances on Saturday morning. Whether we get some drier air in time for a long run remains possible, but not a certainty.

Next week

Even if we do get some decent cooling with this weekend’s front, we should be back into a warmer and more humid pattern early next week. Most of our guidance still indicates the arrival of a nice cold front during the middle of next week, but I’m still not confident enough to make any promises. However, it does seem fairly likely.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Rafael is strengthening this morning, and should cross Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico by later on Wednesday, likely as a hurricane. The storm’s current forecast track may look concerning, but the reality is that there are two scenarios which are most likely—and neither is particularly threatening to Texas.

The first scenario is that Rafael remains a hurricane as it reaches the central Gulf of Mexico, in which case it is likely to be steered toward southeastern Louisiana or thereabouts. If Rafael becomes weaker it is more likely to drift due westward toward Texas. However, in this scenario the storm would be considerably weaker, and probably not pose much of a threat beyond some easterly winds and higher seas. We’ll continue to watch things closely, of course. Look for a full report on The Eyewall later today.