Eric Berger

In brief: Houston’s overall pattern appears to be set for the next 10 days. We’ll be breezy, warm, and humid for the rest of this week, with the potential for some thunderstorms on Saturday as a strong front rumbles through. Then, next week looks quite a bit cooler with the potential for some nights in the 40s. Also, we’re introducing an exciting new product for younger readers. Check that out at the end of today’s post.

Tuesday

We are seeing patchy fog this morning, and that’s an indication that conditions are fairly muggy outside. It also means that winds are fairly light, but that will soon change. Beginning this afternoon winds will pick up from the south at 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph or so. We’re going to see fairly gusty conditions over the region for the rest of the week as a fairly tight gradient sets up. As for temperatures, we’re probably going to hold in the low- to mid-80s today, depending on the extent of cloud cover. Lows tonight will only drop into the lower 70s, so very muggy for early April.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The second half of the work week will bring similar, but still warmer conditions. Each day will see a mixture of sunshine and clouds, with high temperatures ranging from the mid-80s to around 90 degrees. Nights will be warm and muggy. As noted above, each day will be feature a pronounced southerly wind. We cannot rule out some scattered showers on Friday afternoon or evening, but at this point it appears likely that rain will hold off until Saturday.

Saturday

Speaking of Saturday, there’s the possibility of some strong thunderstorms to go along with a frontal passage. This will be a rather strong front for April, so the setup for severe weather will be in place, but at this point we cannot have too much confidence in the details. In any case, know there is the potential for some storms on Saturday, with details to come. Highs likely will reach the mid-80s, but again this is dependent upon the timing of the front. Some showers may linger into Saturday night, when lows drop into the 50s.

Sunday

I expect some clouds to linger on Sunday, and the combination of overcast skies and the influx of cooler air my limit high temperatures in the 60s. Lows on Sunday night will likely drop into the upper 40s for inland areas, and lower 50s closer to the coast.

Next week

Much of next week looks sunny and cooler, with highs in the upper 60s to 70s, and nights in the 40s and 50s. We’ll probably be back in the 80s by Thursday or so, but humidity levels should remain relatively low. Enjoy the dry air, as it is not clear how much more we’re going to see this spring.

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In brief: March has been fairly warm, and this coming week will bring us some of our hottest weather of the year so far. But that does not necessarily mean spring is over. In fact, next week looks to be quite a bit cooler with the possibility of lows in the 40s for a few mornings.

It’s still spring, right?

March is drawing to a close today, and by the calendar we are supposed to have two more months of spring. However, this March has been rather warm, running more than 4 degrees above normal. Moreover, this week will see several days with temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. It might almost feel like summer is at hand. However, we have fairly high confidence in the arrival of a robust front this coming weekend, which will bring temperatures back into line for spring.

Monday

It is rather sticky outside this morning, with temperatures in the low- to mid-70s and dewpoints nearly as high. A very weak front is on our doorstep, and it will slowly sink into the region today, knocking down humidity slightly. Look for high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s for most of the metro area.

Tuesday

Some fog will be possible Tuesday morning, and as it lifts we should see mostly cloudy skies. This should help limit highs in the lower 80s. The front won’t last long, as we’ll see winds picking up from the east, and then the south later on Tuesday. They may get fairly gusty, up to 25 mph. Lows on Tuesday night will drop only into the lower 70s for most locations.

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

These should be fairly similar, fairly warm days. Each day should bring partly sunny skies, and warm temperatures. Highs will vary from the upper 80s to about 90 degrees for most locations. We’ll also see gusty afternoons, perhaps peaking at 30 mph for a few hours. Nights will be quite warm, dropping only to about 75 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weather for this coming weekend is somewhat unsettled. Saturday looks to be mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-80s, as an upper-level low pressure system brings elevated chances of rain into the region. At some point on Saturday or Saturday night, most likely, a stronger front will push through the region. Lows on Saturday night may drop down to around 60 degrees, depending on the timing of the front, and some showers may well linger into Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday should top out in the vicinity of 70 degrees, or so. If you have outdoor plans for Saturday and Sunday, showers and thunderstorms are a concern, but not a certainty. We’ll fine tune things as the weekend gets closer.

Next week

Houston will face a nice slug of cooler weather next week. Although it’s impossible to be too precise this far out, I’m thinking days with highs of around 70 degrees and lows in the 40s or 50s. So yeah, it will be nice to have a chill in the air again for a few days. The cooler weather should hang around for most of the week.

In brief: We’re interrupting your Sunday with a short post to note the possibility of severe weather in the Houston metro this afternoon and early evening. Conditions aren’t ideal, but they could support strong thunderstorms.

Hi everyone. I hope you’re enjoying this humid Sunday in our fair city. We’re posting a quick update to note the possibility that some strong thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in association with a weak front approaching the region. Unfortunately we don’t have great data about the state of the atmosphere—a sounding over the city or just to our northwest would go along way—but there are some ingredients available for the development of storms.

The most likely timeframe will be from about noon to 8 pm CT. If the capping inversion in the atmosphere (preventing warm, humid air at the surface from rising) ends up breaking over the city, we could see a fairly wide outbreak of thunderstorms. There will be the usual threats in the form of hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two. I want to emphasize that conditions are not ideal for severe weather, but the potential is lurking in our atmosphere.

The bottom line is that if you’re going to be out and about this afternoon you will want to check the radar and be prepared for inclement weather. The likelihood of storms will diminish this evening, and then should fade entirely tonight in Houston. We’ll be back with a comprehensive update, as usual, on Monday morning.

In brief: Light to moderate showers are moving into Houston from the southwest this morning, and this more or less will be the pattern over the next two days. There’s a chance for some heavier rain on Friday afternoon or evening, but overall the threat for significant flooding in Houston and surrounding suburbs is fairly low. After Friday, our weather turns warmer for awhile.

Rain status

For a few days now we’ve been discussing the impending arrival of a disturbance in the upper atmosphere, and its potential to drop buckets of rainfall over the region. There has been a see-saw battle between global and regional weather models. Now that the rains have finally begun, the contours of this system and its impacts are finally coming into focus. Essentially, instead of seeing mostly heavy rainfall in the Houston region, we are likely to see mostly light to moderate showers over the next two days.

The one exception to this is locations southwest of the Houston metro area, including Jackson, Matagorda,
Wharton, and Colorado counties that have already received 1 inch of rainfall. Some locations within these counties may eventually pick up 4 to 6 inches of rainfall with higher totals. This is certainly enough to cause some street flooding issues. So areas southwest of Houston could get soggy. But as for Houston itself, we are probably looking at rain accumulations of 0.5 to 2 inches between now and Friday night.

I am going to leave the Stage 1 flood alert in place for areas south of Interstate 10 out of an abundance of caution, because at this time there should not be significant flooding or mobility disruptions in Houston and its suburbs.

Thursday

We are seeing light to moderate showers moving in from the southwest this morning, and these should be fairly persistent for much of the day. Expect on-and-off rain, with overall mostly light accumulations. Certainly there could be a few isolated thunderstorms with some heavier rain, but I don’t expect widespread issues. With cloudy skies, high temperatures today are likely to peak in the mid-70s with easterly winds of about 10 mph and higher gusts. There may be a lull in the rain this evening (or not) before more widespread showers return after midnight.

Friday

I expect Friday to be similar. If there is a time when we may see more dynamic weather, including heavier rain, it probably will come on Friday afternoon or during the early evening hours. I don’t have great confidence yet, but it’s possible that some sort of line of storms will push through the area from west to east during the evening commute, and disrupt the start to the weekend. We’ll keep an eye on that. Some rain chances will linger Friday night but generally, by Saturday morning, the upper-level system will have moved on.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see partly sunny and warmer skies. Look for highs in the mid-80s on both days, and sultry springtime lows only dropping to around 70 degrees. With dewpoints in the upper 60s, it will definitely feel pretty humid after winter in Houston. It’s good for the skin, I guess.

Next week

Most of next week should see additional warm and humid weather with highs generally in the mid- to upper-80s and warm nights. We may briefly see some drier air on Monday night and Tuesday with a weak front, but it will not be much to write home about. Some kind of front may push through next weekend to bring cooler weather by Sunday or Monday, but since that’s 10 days out our overall confidence is fairly low.