Eric Berger

In brief: A front is pushing into the Houston metro area this morning, and it will begin a week-long period of much colder weather, with hard freezes likely on multiple mornings, and a probable winter storm that will significantly disrupt mobility around the region on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.

Today will be the final day before freezing temperatures arrive in the Houston metro area. Although winds will shift to come from the northwest, heralding the arrival of the cold front, we’ll see enough sunshine and lagging colder air that highs today will likely reach about 60 degrees. Conditions tonight will turn gustier and the aforementioned colder air arrives. A light freeze is possible across parts of the Houston metro area by Sunday morning.

Houston Marathon

I had the opportunity to speak with Dr. Lars Thestrup on Friday, at the start line of the Houston Marathon, which begins Sunday morning around sunrise. We discussed the cold conditions expected for runners, volunteers, and spectators on Sunday morning. Unfortunately, in addition to temperatures in the low 30s on Sunday morning, there will be wind gusts up to 30 mph.

Although there is nothing inherently unsafe about running in these conditions, they necessitate preparation. For runners, that means a cap, something to cover one’s ears, gloves, and layers. As one runs long distances, the body heats up. It may be tempting to shed a layer of clothing, but Thestrup cautioned that for half marathon runners at 8.5 miles, and full marathon runners at 14 miles, there will be a turn into a more northerly stretch of roadway. This will be a full on headwind, he said, and it will be cold. So if you’re thinking of shedding a layer of clothes, at least wait until you hit that wind, he advised. I don’t think I’ll be shedding anything, at any point.

Sunday night and Monday

Temperatures are likely to drop into the upper 20s in the Houston metro area on Sunday night, with a hard freeze possible for northern and western areas of the region, in places such as Montgomery County. So you should have hard freeze preparations completed by no later than Sunday evening.

However we expect Monday to be mostly precipitation free. Even if there is a light, misty rain temperatures should remain above freezing until Monday evening. (But it’s still going to be very cold, so bundle up for any MLK Day activities). By around midnight, if not before, temperatures will sink toward freezing and heavier precipitation is likely. That’s when things may turn dicey.

Winter storm

Travel is not advised on Tuesday. Like, please don’t if possible. We still don’t know the precise details of what types of precipitation will fall, and this portion of the forecast is still subject to change. Generally, I think snow will be most likely along and north of Interstate 10, with freezing rain and sleet more likely south of Interstate 10.

The best chance of precipitation will come after midnight and before noon on Tuesday, when temperatures area-wide will be a few degrees below freezing. We are talking about the potential for inches of snow, or significant accumulations of ice on roads from freezing rain. Daytime temperatures may briefly rise above freezing on Wednesday afternoon (or for many locations away from the coast, they may not). In short, we expect roads to be a mess on Tuesday, and with freezing temperatures on Tuesday night, probably well into Wednesday morning. I would expect significant impacts to air travel as well during this period.

How cold will it get

It looks as though Wednesday morning will be the coldest of the week. For areas north of Interstate 10, lows could drop into the 17-22 degree range, for the urban core of Houston we probably will see something in the vicinity of 20 degrees, and temperatures a few degrees warmer for coastal counties. Clear skies will allow for radiational cooling. What could really send temperatures diving, however, is snow cover. So I think the risk of colder weather than advertised above is higher for areas along and north of I-10, where snowfall is most likely. Needless to say, these cold temperatures will keep any snow or ice on the roads in place well into Wednesday morning.

When does this end?

I’m hopeful that temperatures will reach above freezing by around noon on Wednesday, but this may take longer for inland areas. Mostly sunny skies should help dry out roadways. So at this point travel around the region may become more feasible on Wednesday afternoon, but that’s not something I would guarantee at this point. A light freeze is possible on Wednesday night, and by Thursday we are well in the mid-40s so there should be fewer concerns. We may see the possibility of some wintry precipitation again Thursday night, but it’s too early to say anything sensible about this.

Preparations

Temperatures for inland areas of Houston will drop below 25 degrees as soon as Monday morning, and much of the region (with the possible exception of the coast) could see a hard freeze on either or both of Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. This is cold enough to threaten exposed pipes, sprinkler systems, and more. Here are some basic preparations to undertake:

• PLANTS. Protect tropical vegetation. Please note, with temperatures dropping this low, some vegetation will probably die regardless.
• PIPES. Protect any exposed outdoor pipes. Pipes in attics and along exterior walls of structures could freeze at these levels.
• SPRINKLERS. Sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained.
• ANIMALS. Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock and make sure water sources are not frozen.

A message from our sponsor

We’re grateful to Eric and Matt for keeping us informed on the latest wintry weather expected. With cold temperatures predicted, Reliant wants to help Texans feel prepared and informed about their energy usage during extreme weather. These tips can help Space City Weather readers save energy while staying warm, regardless of energy provider:

The colder it is outside, the harder and longer your heater works to maintain the number on the thermostat.

• Check your thermostat. Many Texans have electric heaters, so freezing temperatures could result in increased energy usage and costs. We want you to be comfortable but keep in mind if you have an electric heater, setting your thermostat to around 68 degrees can help you save energy. For every degree above 68, you can typically expect a 3-5% increase in heating costs.
• Let the sun in. If the sun is shining, open blinds and shades during the day and remove any solar screens to naturally warm your home. Close them at night to help block out the chill.

Staying warm while remaining energy efficient is about keeping the heat in just as much as it is about generating it.

• Close heat escape routes. Keep the chimney damper closed when not in use and be mindful of how often you’re opening entry doors and using bathroom ventilation fans, as heat can escape through these outlets.
• Weatherstrip exterior doors and windows. With minimal effort and cost, you can seal out the cold and save up to 10% on total energy costs.

There are often items around your home you can use to stay warm and save money.

• Set your ceiling fan to rotate clockwise. This helps force warm air down into the room to create a more comfortable environment.
• Layer up. Reach for a sweater or blanket before reaching for the thermostat. Weather-appropriate clothes help reduce the demand for heat.
• Safely use space heaters. When you need to heat a small portion of your home for a limited amount of time, a space heater is a cost-efficient option but be sure to turn it off when no one is around. Using a space heater that is thermostat-controlled can prevent wasted energy.

These simple home improvement tasks can keep your heating system from working harder than it needs to and keep you from spending more than you want to on winter electricity bills.

• Protect outside faucets. Shut off exterior faucets and drain water from outdoor pipes to prevent them from bursting.
• Flush the hot water heater tank. Check the temperature and pressure relief valve to ensure it is working properly.

Visit reliant.com/wintertips for more tips on staying warm while managing your energy usage.

In brief: This post provides an update on our expectations for the winter storm next week, which is now increasingly likely to bring a hard freeze and snow to Houston. The period from Monday night through Wednesday morning could be challenging from a roads and airports standpoint.

Why we are posting on Friday afternoon

As we continue to see more model data, our confidence is increasing in a severe cold snap next week, along with the potential for measurable snowfall that could prove disruptive for travel plans on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Although the details remain impossible to forecast, it is now more likely than not that we will experience a serious winter storm in the Houston region four days from now.

How long do I have to prepare?

Conditions today are fairly comfortable outside, and tonight will be mild. Some very light showers will be possible overnight, ahead of the passage of a cold front on Saturday morning. However, as the colder air will be lagging behind somewhat, Saturday should be fine temperature-wise, in the upper-50s or so. By around sunset, however, temperatures will start to drop. A light freeze will be possible across much of the Houston metro area by as early as Sunday morning.

Sunday should be sunny, windy, and chilly. Temperatures on Monday morning will fall below freezing for pretty much the entire metro area, with a hard freeze (temperatures of 25 degrees, or below) possible along and north of Interstate 10. So any freeze preparations on pipes and plants should be completed no later than Sunday.

However, we likely will remain largely free of precipitation on MLK Day. So while it will be cold on Monday, with high temperatures only in the lower 40s, mobility should not be an issue. However, by Monday evening, we could start to see snowfall, and temperatures will drop below freezing pretty quickly. Travel after Monday evening may become hazardous.

Winter storm

At this time it looks like most of the precipitation that falls early next week will probably be snow. For some areas south of Houston, particularly in Brazoria and Matagorda counties, there may be more sleet or freezing rain. It’s not clear where that transition will occur, but it is entirely possible that Houston wakes up on Tuesday morning and there are 3 or 6 inches of snow on the ground. This would be the most snow Houston has received in at least two decades.

The bottom line is that we’re increasingly confident that temperatures will be well below freezing on Tuesday morning, and that there is likely to be precipitation. That means that whatever falls, is going to stick. And since temperatures may only briefly reach above freezing on Tuesday—and for some areas in Montgomery County and points north, temperatures may not rise above freezing on Tuesday—whatever falls may stick throughout the day and again for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

For that reason, we believe there is the potential for significant disruptions to mobility around Houston on Tuesday, and probably into Wednesday morning. Speaking of Wednesday morning, it actually looks to be the coldest of the period, with temperatures in the low 20s in Houston, and perhaps even lower depending on the extent of snow cover.

So if you’re making plans for next week, consider that much of the city could be shut down for Tuesday and part of Wednesday. Fortunately we should see sunshine on Wednesday, with temperatures warming into the 40s during the afternoon. This should help improve road conditions.

Preparations

Temperatures in parts of Houston will drop below 25 degrees as soon as Monday morning, and much of the region (with the possible exception of the coast) could see a hard freeze on either or both of Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. This is cold enough to threaten exposed pipes, sprinkler systems, and more. Here are some basic preparations to undertake:

• PLANTS. Protect tropical vegetation. Please note, with temperatures dropping this low, some vegetation will probably die regardless.
• PIPES. Protect any exposed outdoor pipes. Pipes in attics and along exterior walls of structures could freeze at these levels.
• SPRINKLERS. Sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained.
• ANIMALS. Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock and make sure water sources are not frozen.

Electricity

It is beyond the scope of this website to make predictions about the availability of electricity during this winter storm. However, there are two basic issues to consider. The first is power generation at plants. This is what caused widespread power issues during the winter storm during Valentines Day in 2021. We don’t think temperatures will be quite that cold this time, and the state of Texas made significant investments after that cold outbreak. So theoretically there should be electricity available to the grid managed by ERCOT. But we’ll see.

The other step is distribution, which is the lines and poles component. If we get snow that is better than freezing rain, which can stick to power lines, weigh them down, and cause them to snap. So that will be another factor to monitor.

At this time we don’t anticipate major power disruptions during the winter storm, but certainly that is not something we can guarantee.

Our next update will come on Saturday morning.

In brief: Houston has three more modestly warm days before a strong front brings much colder conditions by Saturday night. After that we still have a lot of questions about how cold things will get, and what type of precipitation Houston will see. It could be really messy, or it could be mostly fine.

Winter storm status

We are continuing to see a distinct lack of consistency in the forecast for next week, both in terms of low temperatures and the potential for snow or other kind of wintry precipitation. To give you an example of this, over the last 24 hours, the highly respected European model has forecast everything from nearly 1 inch of freezing rain, to 2 inches of snow, to nothing in terms of wintry precipitation. So good luck with that.

When we are vague and talk about the ‘potential’ for a winter storm during the period of Monday night and Tuesday of next week, that’s just what we mean. Although your phone may be telling you there will be six inches of snow or some other type of precipitation, just know that this forecast can, and probably will change. Our advice is to continue to be prepared for wintry precipitation early next week, most likely on Monday night and Tuesday, but to understand that it also may not happen. I know the lack of certainty is frustrating, but it’s the reality of the forecast at this time.

We’ve had a lot of questions about electricity as well, and that’s understandable. This will depend on how cold it gets in Texas, and locally, whether we see a lot of ice (which gets on powerlines and can snap them). At this time I’m leaning toward the potential for lower impacts and fewer outages, but again this will depend on how the forecast plays out.

Thursday

We don’t have any weather concerns today in Houston. Expect high temperatures to reach the lower 60s, with mostly sunny skies, and light winds. Honestly, this is a good candidate for the nicest day of 2025 so far. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-40s, with clear skies.

Friday

This will be the warmest day for awhile, even as clouds build over the area. Expect highs in the upper 60s to possibly 70 degrees. We’ll also see humidity levels briefly spike up on Friday afternoon and evening. You remember what humidity is, right? Lows on Friday night will only drop into the 50s.

Saturday

Hello, cold front day. The front should arrive some time on Saturday morning, in the form of drier air and stronger northerly winds. However, as skies will be partly to mostly sunny after the front, and the colder air will lag behind a bit, I think high temperatures will still get into the low- to mid-60s for many locations on Saturday. So while this will be a breezy day, it won’t be a particularly cold day. That will change toward evening, however, as colder air arrives with the setting Sun. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid-30s in Houston, with the potential for a light freeze for inland areas.

Sunday

For the Houston Marathon, there’s no way to get around this. It’s going to be cold. We’re going to see brisk northerly winds which will, at times, be gusting up to 20 or 25 mph. Start line temperatures will likely be around 34 to 38 degrees in downtown Houston, rising to the lower 40s by late morning. So yeah, a very cold race. By Sunday afternoon temperatures likely will reach the upper 40s. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop to around the freezing level in Houston, give or take, with the coast remaining above freezing and inland areas dropping a few degrees below freezing.

MLK Day

If you’re planning on attending the parades on Monday, or participating in some other activity related to the holiday, please bundle up. Skies will be partly sunny, with high temperatures around 40 degrees. There’s also the potential for a light drizzle on Monday afternoon or evening.

Monday night through Wednesday

This is the likely period of coldest weather in Houston, and when we are most concerned about the potential for freezing weather. The problem is we don’t really know how cold conditions will get in Houston or surrounding areas, and we don’t know precisely how much precipitation will fall, or when. So right now we’re smacking you with a big snowball of uncertainty.

My sense is that temperatures in central Houston will probably fall into a range of 25 to 35 degrees on the mornings of Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. That obviously ranges from a borderline hard freeze to non-freezing. (Obviously, the likelihood of a hard freeze is significantly higher for locations such as The Woodlands, and points to the north and northwest of Houston). So if you have sensitive pipes and plants you should be preparing for very cold weather here. But the reality is, we may not get that cold.

As for precipitation, a coastal low pressure system is likely to bring some form of it to the region on Monday night and Tuesday. Because of the uncertainty on temperatures, this could still come in the form of rain, snow, freezing rain, or possibly even sleet although that looks like a lesser possibility. The bottom line is Tuesday morning may be pretty messy on the roads around Houston. Or it could be fine. It may yet be a couple of days before we can say for sure. I want to see some agreement and consistency in the models, and as yet there is none.

Temperatures begin to warm up on Wednesday and Thursday.

In brief: Today’s post delves into the uncertainty around the potential for snow early next week, as well as just how cold things will get. The reality is, in Houston, one just cannot confidently forecast snow nearly a week out. As for temperatures, we appear to be trending away from extreme cold, which is a good thing.

Winter storm real talk

Whenever there’s the possibility of snow in Houston, people lose their minds. Some people are absolutely giddy at the rare prospect of snow. Others fear what it will do to Houston’s unprepared drivers and untreated roads. Kids anticipate the rarest of all gifts in Houston, a ‘snow’ day.

Here’s the reality from a forecaster’s standpoint. Yes, there is an increasing possibility of snow or sleet beginning next Monday night and Tuesday, but this is still nearly six days away. This means our confidence in forecasting any wintry precipitation remains very low. There is probably about a 50-50 chance we see some kind of wintry mix, so set your expectations accordingly. Our confidence in the forecast will increase as we get closer.

Wednesday

We’re seeing fairly widespread, light showers this morning, and these will continue for most of the day. The showers are more numerous south of Interstate 10, closer to the source of moisture. None of this rain is likely to turn heavy, so mostly the will just be a cold, light rain. With mostly cloudy skies, expect high temperatures in the low 50s. Temperatures tonight will drop to about 40 degrees, with clearing skies.

Thursday

NICE DAY ALERT! This will be a mostly sunny day day with high temperatures in the low 60s. Honestly, looking ahead at the forecast, this is probably going to be the nicest day outside for quite awhile. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the lower 60s.

Friday

We’ll see some blue skies on Friday morning, maybe, but then clouds will start top build. Temperatures will approach 70 degrees during the afternoon hours, with modestly increasing humidity levels. There will be a slight chance of some showers on Friday night, but these now look to be mostly light instead of anything threatening. Lows on Friday night will likely only drop into the upper 50s.

Saturday

This will be a partly sunny day, with highs in the low 60s ahead of a strong cold front. A few showers and thunderstorms may be possible just ahead of the front as it moves through, but for many people this could be a dry passage. I expect the front to reach central Houston by around noon, and push off the coast shortly afterward. We may hold on to temperatures in the 50s for a few hours after the front passes, but as the sun sets and northwesterly winds blow, much drier and colder air will be pushing in. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 30s.

Sunday

You read that right, marathon runners. I now expect start-line temperatures in Houston to be in the vicinity of the mid-30s. We don’t need to worry about precipitation, fortunately, and skies should be mostly clear. What I’m watching mostly closely is winds. Right now they’re likely to be out of the north at 10 to 15 mph. The trend in gusts has been slightly lower, so for now I’d anticipate gusting up to about 25 mph. That is certainly no picnic, but it beats 30 or 35 mph. The bottom line is that if you’re running, I recommend bundling up. I’ll be wearing my warmer gloves for this one. Highs on Sunday will reach the mid- to upper-40s most likely before a possible freeze on Sunday night.

MLK Day

The forecast models have, in recent runs, backed off some of the extreme cold anticipated for next week. The caveat at the beginning of this post about snow uncertainty still applies to temperatures as well. But at this point I would expect most of Houston to experience a light freeze on Monday morning, with partly sunny skies. Highs will only reach 40 degrees. So if you’re participating or watching a parade, please dress warmly.

The rest of next week

Beginning Monday evening, through Wednesday morning, is when the Houston region will experience the best chance of a wintry mix and coldest temperatures.

We’ll start with temperatures. At this point I think we’ll probably bottom out on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. For Houston, the likely range of temperatures on these mornings is probably 25 to 30 degrees, with a hard freeze possible for inland areas, and the immediate coast possibly remaining just above freezing. High temperatures through Wednesday will likely be on the order of 40 degrees. Again we’ll have to fine-tune the temperature forecast as we get closer.

With regard to precipitation, we’ll start to see an influx of moisture beginning later on Monday and Monday night, and this will bring a modest chance of precipitation on Monday night, Tuesday, and Tuesday night. With the colder air this brings the possibility of snow (most likely at this time), sleet, or freezing rain into the forecast. Because slight temperature differences in the atmosphere will determine the type of precipitation, we just cannot make a call on whether it will snow, sleet, or rain in Houston during the first half of next week. But it’s a distinct possibility, along with some mobility issues on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. We’ll be watching all of this closely over the weekend for you, with regular updates.

A warming trend begins Thursday.