Good morning. Houston will now see a couple of warmer days—with temperatures peaking in the low to mid-70s—before colder, winter-like weather returns. We then may see a sustained stretch of truly colder weather (for Houston, at least) with several days during which high temperatures do not climb out of the 50s. If you have been waiting for winter proper, it appears to be at hand for Houston.
Monday
Some central parts of Houston are seeing a thin layer of fog develop, but this should burn off fairly quickly after sunrise. High pressure will continue to drive our weather, and this will lead to a mostly sunny day with high temperatures likely reaching into the low- to mid-70s for most of the area. A few clouds will develop tonight, as temperatures fall into the 40s for most of the area except for the immediate coast.
Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning
Tuesday
We’ll see another sunny day, with high temperatures likely reaching about 70 degrees. Winds will start to come from the east, and then the southeast, and this will begin to slowly increase moisture levels and set the stage for some healthy rain chances on Wednesday. But there will be none of that on Tuesday, when we should see mostly sunny skies. As clouds begin to increase during the overnight hours, this should prevent lows from falling below the low 50s for most of the region.
Wednesday
The day should start cloudy, with a chance for scattered showers during the morning hours. A front should sweep through during the afternoon hours, from west to east, and most all of the area should see at least brief rainfall from these storms. Accumulations for most people should be less than 1 inch as the storms push through, but isolated areas may see a bit more than that, and some of these thunderstorms may be briefly intense. As the front clears the area during the late afternoon or evening hours, rain chances will end, and lows will drop into the 40s.
Thursday and Friday
After the front moves through we may see some breezy conditions overnight, but winds should begin to subside by Thursday and Friday. This will set the stage for a sunny, cool end to the work week. I’d expect highs in the upper 50s to about 60 degrees with lots of sunshine both days. Lows probably will drop to around 40 in the city of Houston.
Houston will see plenty of days in the 50s in the days ahead. (Weather Bell)
Saturday, Sunday and beyond
So what does the weekend hold? Temperatures remain cold through Saturday, when we may see a few more clouds begin to develop. Sunday may see a bit of a warmup before another front approaches the area, but I think mostly cloudy skies will probably keep highs in the 50s. The timing and details with the next front are unclear, but it’s expected to bring another shot of rainfall and then quite a bit more colder air. We probably will see lows in the 30s next week, but it’s difficult to have much confidence in the details for now.
Good morning. Just a short update today, due to the holiday, and also because frankly there is not much to say about Houston’s weather in the wake of our stormy New Year’s Eve frontal passage.
High pressure will dominate our weather for the next several days, and in January that means cool, mostly sunny days, and mostly clear nights. Highs for New Year’s Day and Saturday will likely only reach the mid-50s, with lows dropping down to around 40 degrees in the city of Houston. Highs by Sunday and Monday should reach into the mid- to upper-60s.
Low temperature forecast for Saturday morning. Sunday will be similar. (Weather Bell)
The warming trend will continue through about Wednesday, when we may see some scattered showers ahead of the next front—sliding through on Wednesday evening, perhaps? The front should lack the fireworks that we saw with the New Year’s Eve front. It should set the stage for more cool, clear, and winter-like weather heading into next weekend. We’ll have more for you on Monday morning.
All that’s left to say now is Happy New Year! We hope it is a better one for you, and our region. We’re going to continue to work to improve the site, and we’ll be announcing some big things in the coming weeks. We really appreciate this community, and Space City Weather set all kinds of traffic records in 2020 due to our growing readership and the dual threats of Hurricane Laura and Tropical Storm Beta:
• 12.6 million page views
• 3.8 million visitors
• 358 posts
We’d gladly take half of that traffic in 2021 if it means the tropics remain quiet!
So far the forecast for Houston remains on track. Nearly all of the heavy rainfall has remained west of Interstate 45, with generally 1 to 4 inches falling between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. A few areas, such as western Montgomery County, saw as much as 5 inches. Now, we’ve got to get through one more day before skies clear this evening and the new year dawns brighter.
Thursday daytime
After storms waned during the wee hours of Thursday, we’re starting to see activity fire back up west of Houston around sunrise. This mass of storms should generally move from west to east during the daylight hours, bringing an additional 1 to 3 inches across much of the Houston area. However, the forecast will be complicated by the front’s interaction with a low-pressure system presently along the Texas coast, near Corpus Christi. As this low moves north today, it could induce some severe weather to the south and east of Houston—especially the closer one gets to Beaumont and Port Arthur. The threat will be strong winds amidst severe thunderstorms, and possibly a few tornadoes. The area of greatest threat is shown below.
Severe weather outlook for New Year’s Eve. (NOAA)
New Year’s Eve evening
The cold front presently draped across the Houston region will finally lift to the northeast this afternoon and evening. I think rains should be gone from the central Houston area by around 4 to 6pm CT today, and rapidly pull away to the east after that time. Temperatures after sunset will quickly drop into the 40s, with brisk westerly winds blowing at 15 to 20 mph, and higher gusts. Bottom line: If you’re outside when the clock strikes midnight, it will “feel” like it is in the 30s.
New Year’s Day
Lows will drop to around 40 degrees before rebounding into the upper 50s on New Year’s Day. After some morning clouds, skies should be mostly sunny.
Forecast high temperatures for New Year’s Day. (Weather Bell)
Saturday and Sunday
Expect more sunshine throughout the weekend, with highs in the mid-50s on Saturday, and low 60s on Sunday.
Next week
Houston will likely see a slow warming trend next week before another front arrives on Wednesday or Thursday to keep our weather reasonably cool. This one may bring some additional rain, but nothing like we’ve been experiencing with the current front.
2020 Hurricane Season
If you missed it, we published Part I of our hurricane season wrap-up on Wednesday, and will publish Part II later today.
Today and tomorrow, Matt and I will be publishing two posts to summarize the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, its effects on Houston, and implications for the future. In Part I, today, I will discuss the overall activity this season, and share some thoughts about Hurricane Laura. Part II, tomorrow, will focus on Tropical Storm Beta and what we can learn from this season about future hurricane activity.
2020 season
The numbers for the 2020 season are sobering. Across the Atlantic basin—which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico—there were a total of 30 tropical storms and hurricanes. This surpassed the previous record of 28 set in the year 2005, the historic year of Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. For only the second time, this year, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami ran out of names and had to resort to using the Greek alphabet.
From Arthur to Iota, what a year it was. (NOAA)
Notably, a dozen of these tropical storms and hurricanes made landfall in the United States, crushing the previous record of nine landfalling tropical storms or hurricanes set in 1916. The state of Louisiana alone experienced five landfalls. (Thanks to the tremendous results of our 2020 fundraiser, Space City Weather will donate $5,000 to SBP, to assist with that state’s recovery efforts). At least one part of Louisiana fell under coastal watches or warnings for tropical activity for a total of 474 hours this summer and fall. And Hurricane Laura, discussed below, became the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana since 1856.
Harris County’s Jeff Lindner has catalogued some of this year’s other superlatives:
On September 14, five tropical cyclones were ongoing at the same time in the Atlantic basin (Sally, Paulette, Rene, Teddy, and Vicky). This ties September 1971 for the most number of tropical cyclones at the same time in the basin.
On September 18, three tropical cyclones formed within in six-hour window (Wilfred, Alpha, and Beta). This is only the second time in recorded history that three tropical cyclones have formed in such a short time period (1893).
Ten tropical storms formed in the month of September, the most for any month on record
A total of 10 systems experienced rapid intensification (35 mph increase in wind speed in 24 hours), Hanna, Laura, Sally, Teddy, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Iot).
Hurricanes Delta, Iota, and Eta experienced winds speed increases over 100 mph in 36 hours or less.
Of the 6 major hurricanes in 2020, four were in October and November, and bore Greek alphabet names (Delta, Epsilon, Eta, and Iota).
Hurricanes Eta and Iota both made landfall only 15 miles apart along the Nicaragua coast both as category 4 hurricanes.
Hurricane Iota (160 mph) became the latest category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin, and the second strongest November hurricane on record only behind the 1932 Cuba hurricane (175mph)
NOAA hurricane hunters flew a total of 86 missions for 678 flight hours and 102 eyewall passages. A total of 1,772 dropsondes were deployed.
Despite all of this, however, the 2020 Atlantic season was not all that extraordinary by some important measurements. Perhaps our best tool for determining a season’s overall activity is “accumulated cyclone energy,” or ACE, which sums up the intensity and duration of storms. For example, a weak, short-lived tropical storm counts for almost nothing, whereas a major, long-lived hurricane will quickly rack up dozens of points. The ACE value for the 2020 Atlantic season was 179.8. This significantly higher than the climatological norm for ACE values (about 104), but does not quite make the top 10 busiest Atlantic seasons on record, which is paced by the 1933 and 2005 seasons.
The bottom line is that the 2020 hurricane season was in line with our expectations for 2020 to produce a total cluster of a year. Fortunately, we survived. In Matt’s post on Thursday, he’ll discuss what this may mean for the 2021 season.
Hurricane Laura
It’s also worth reflecting for a moment on what I consider to be the most threatening storm of the year for Houston. There was a time in late August when it appeared that Hurricane Laura might strike Houston as a major hurricane. Personally, it was rather unsettling.
I first began writing extensively about hurricanes back in 2005. This was before I had become a meteorologist, and just after I started a blog for the Houston Chronicle. First, I tracked Hurricane Katrina and then, much closer to home, there was Rita. You may not remember the storm, or it may not have formed much of an impression on you. But it certainly did on me. I distinctly recall the evening of September 21, 2005—a Wednesday. Rita had intensified to 175 mph over the central Gulf of Mexico, and it was forecast to make landfall a little more than two days later just below Houston on the Texas coast. This was the worst-case scenario for our region. I’d bought a home in the Clear Lake area a couple of years earlier. Not going to lie, this one scared me. Eventually, Rita weakened some, and turned, making landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border.
Hurricane Rita forecast for Sept 21, 2005, about 30 hours before landfall. (National Hurricane Center)
Since then, Rita has been the measuring stick for me in terms of dreading a hurricane landfall. And in those 15 years, no storm has ranked so highly as Laura did in late August. Why? Because although Houston has been battered by a strong storm surge (Hurricane Ike) and massive floodstorm (Harvey) in the last dozen years, it has not seen a major wind storm in nearly six decades. That was the potential Laura had with a track that could have come to Texas, across a very warm Gulf of Mexico. Ultimately, that didn’t happen, Laura turned away from Houston and made a devastating landfall in Louisiana.
Thanks to fine forecasting and smart calls by local officials, the greater Houston area was spared a major evacuation. But Laura was a close call in many ways for the nation’s fourth largest city. And I won’t soon forget it.
Sponsor Note from Reliant
A big thank you goes to the Space City Weather team for keeping Houstonians informed during the 2020 hurricane season. Just as Eric and Matt provide hype-free forecasts to ensure readers are prepared for a storm, Reliant keeps Houston powered with personalized electricity plans and back-up power solutions. Reliant is also here to help before, during and after the storm with helpful guides, tips and information on reliantstormcenter.com. We all hope for a quiet hurricane season in 2021, but know we’ll be informed and in good hands with Eric and Matt should any storms develop. Thanks for all you do, SCW!
