Eric Berger

Good morning. Some readers reported seeing a bit of freezing precipitation on Tuesday. This was due to an upper level disturbance that moved in rapidly from the west. Because the atmosphere was very dry, it was not expected that this precipitation would make it all the way to the ground, but some of it did. What you saw, in most cases, was graupel. What the heck is graupel? It is similar to, but distinct from sleet. Here’s a graphic that shows how it forms in the atmosphere. Essentially, supercooled water droplets form on falling snowflakes in a thin layer of warmer atmosphere.

Wednesday

We’re done with the wintry mix and precipitation chances for now. After a cold start, with temperatures dropping into the 30s across much of the area except for the coast, Houston should warm nicely today. Under sunny skies, we expect highs to reach about 60 degrees. Winds will be light, out of the west to southwest. Low temperatures tonight should reach about 40 degrees in the city of Houston. For the record, I’m choosing to run the Houston virtual marathon early on Thursday morning, which may give you an idea of my preferred weather conditions for long runs. In any case, Matt will be covering things on Thursday for Space City Weather as I’ll be knackered.

Thursday

After another chilly start, this will be the warmest day of the week. Look for highs to reach the upper 60s to possibly 70 degrees for some areas, with mostly sunny skies. Just as things are warming up, a cold front will push through on Thursday evening, bringing a wind shift from the north. The atmosphere will be dry enough that we don’t envision any precipitation with the front. Lows will probably drop down to around 40 degrees.

Friday

In the wake of the front, Friday will be breezy and cool. Winds out of the north will blow at about 10 to 15 mph. Look for highs in the upper 50s to 60 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will die down during the afternoon or evening hours.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend looks splendid. The day with start out in the upper 30s to 40 degrees, and with mostly sunny skies highs should reach into the low 60s.

Sunday

On Sunday we can’t rule out the possibility of some rain showers due to some atmospheric instability. However, I think chances, on the whole, are fairly low—likely 20 percent or less. Skies otherwise should be partly sunny, with highs near 60 degrees.

Next week

For Monday—M.L.K. Day—we should see the return of mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 60s. The forecast turns a bit more sour on Tuesday and Wednesday, as it looks like several ingredients will come together to bring healthy rain chances. It’s too early to have confidence in totals, but a general expectation for now is 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain.

Good morning! We’re getting past the coldest weather of the week this morning, but it’s not exactly going to warm up dramatically any time soon. Looking ahead for the next 10 to 14 days, much of the region may not see highs above the mid-60s as Houston goes through what is climatologically the coldest time of the year.

Tuesday

A light freeze has fallen across much of the area this morning, although the urban core of Houston appears likely to remain at or just above freezing. Yesterday was quite cold. My personal weather station recorded highs briefly reaching 45 degrees during the afternoon. Today will be slightly warmer, with partly sunny skies allowing for temperatures to reach around 50 degrees. Winds will be light, out of the north at about 5 mph. Lows tonight should be about 5 degrees warmer than Monday night.

Wednesday and Thursday

High pressure will keep conditions on the sunny side for the middle of the week. Highs on Wednesday should reach about 60 degrees, and then Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the week as highs reach into the mid- or possibly upper-60s. Meanwhile, nights should see temperatures drop to around 40 degrees.

Friday and Saturday

A reinforcing front will arrive Thursday night. Since our atmosphere will be sufficiently dry, we likely won’t see any rain with this front. However, it will keep things on the cooler side, driving high temperatures back to around 60 degrees, with sunny skies on both Friday and Saturday.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday morning will start out cold, likely in the low 40s. But after this the models begin to diverge in how they handle an upper-level feature in the atmosphere that could potentially spark some rainfall. We have a couple of unanswered questions at this point: How close will this trough get to Houston, and how moist will the atmosphere be by Sunday? The bottom line is that after several sunny days, we could see the return of some clouds Sunday, and possibly some light rain showers later in the day.

By Monday, M.L.K. Day, we hope to see mostly sunny skies. However, next Tuesday and Wednesday may also generate some scattered to widespread showers across the region. The bottom line is that we’re pretty confident in the forecast through this Saturday, and the after that the picture becomes a bit more fuzzy.

Good morning! Although some parts of the Houston area saw flakes or sleet on Sunday, the real snowfall action remained to the north and west of the Houston metro area. Bryan-College Station saw a record 4.5 inches, and some nearby areas saw as much as 6 inches. For the rest of us closer to the coast, it was just a cold rain, with an average of 1 inch falling during what was a very chilly day. We’ll continue to see cold weather for much of the rest of this week, which falls during the dead of winter.

Monday

While winds have slackened for inland areas this morning, it remains breezy along the coast with gusts above 20 mph. Temperatures have bottomed out in the low 30s across much of the region and with mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures today probably won’t rise above the mid-40s. Winds will remain out of the north today, at 5 to 10 mph. Skies may break apart a little bit later tonight, but with partly to mostly cloudy skies providing a little bit of insulation most of the city should remain near or just above freezing. Outlying areas will see a freeze.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

High pressure should more or less keep conditions on the mostly sunny side this week, and after a very cold Monday night a slow warming trend will begin on Tuesday. Look for highs in the low 50s on Tuesday, headed toward the upper 60s by Thursday. Nighttime temperatures, too, should warm from the low- to mid-30s on Tuesday night to mid-40s by Thursday night. All in all this will be a cold, very winter-like week for Houston.

The weekend and beyond

So what does the weekend hold? A cold front appears to be on track to cross the Houston area on Thursday night, or so. Right now this most likely will be a dry passage, with no rain, and bring more clear and cool weather for the weekend. We can probably expect highs in the neighborhood of 60 degrees, with lows down around to around 40 to 45 degrees.

Some clouds may begin to build later on Sunday—at about the same time our confidence in the forecast begins to decrease. Next week looks warmer, with more days in the 60s, and with more clouds. After our soaking and near miss with wintry precipitation this past Sunday, our next real chance for precipitation may not come for awhile. We don’t really need any more rain, so can anyone complain?

We’ve been talking for several days about the collision of a cold air mass, in the form of a strong front, colliding with southerly moisture near Houston this weekend. The question for some time has been how far south the coldest air will get, and therefore where the line between rain, sleet, and snow will fall. As of late Sunday morning, we think that line will be further south than anticipated, possibly all the way down to Interstate 10. We will soon find out for sure—the best chances for a wintry mix will come this afternoon and evening.

As of 11am, precipitation is now moving into much of the Houston area. Already, rain has turned to snow in College Station, and a few locations in Montgomery County have reported sleet. As a quick reminder, the entire atmospheric column needs to remain at freezing temperatures to form snow, otherwise you can end up with sleet or even freezing rain.

As we get deeper into Sunday and Sunday evening with this storm, we wanted to share some key messages we think it’s important to share. For this, it’s important to know whether you live in an area with a “Winter Storm Warning,” a “Winter Weather Advisory,” or no warnings at all. Most all of Houston is not under a warning, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see any effects.

• Areas under a “Winter Storm Warning” face the greatest risk. And although there remain large amounts of uncertainty, it seems likely that much of the region shown in pink, above, will see 2 to 5 inches of snow. This is enough snow to cause significant problems in terms of driving, so travel to these areas later Sunday through Monday morning is not advised.
• Areas facing a “Winter Weather Advisory” likely will receive less than 2 inches of snow, and perhaps also some sleet. This is still enough of a wintry mix to cause problems on roadways, but because temperatures this afternoon should remain above freezing at the surface some travel today is OK. However, as temperatures fall to or near freezing tonight, travel may become problematic.
• For all other areas, surface temperatures should remain above freezing on Sunday and Sunday night as precipitation comes down. Therefore, while you may see some flakes in the air, or sleet, as far south as Interstate 10, it is unlikely to accumulate. The real question, of course, is, Is it going to snow at your house? For nearly all of Houston there’s a non-zero chance, but if you’re along or south of Interstate 10 the chance is still quite low. We will update later today if this changes.

This mess will come to an end tonight, as drier air filters into the region from the west. Generally, precipitation should taper off from west to east from about 10pm to 2am, or thereabouts. Monday will be a very cold day, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 40s for most of Houston.