Eric Berger

After a wet night, Houston faces about a week of warm weather

Following a wet Halloween night and soggy start to Wednesday, Houston should dry out some later today as a storm system moves off to the east of the region. However, we cannot rule out a few lingering storms this morning for central parts of the area, and into the early afternoon hours for the eastern side of the metro area, including the slight possibility of a tornado. After today, rain chances fall, and Houston warms quite a bit for early November.

Wednesday

As anticipated, about 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rain fell across the Houston region, but fortunately we did not see any of the really heavy rainfall that might cause street flooding—or worse.

Rainfall accumulation from 6am Tuesday to 6am Wednesday. (Harris County OEM)

The stalled front and associated instability will move off to the east today, and I expect rains to end in Houston by or before noon. But for areas to the east of Interstate 45 we can’t rule out a tornado today given the potential for some rotation. Any twisters that do form should be short-lived. Highs should reach about 80 degrees for most of Houston, with a correspondingly warm night.

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Suggested Halloween costume for Houston: A fish, perhaps?

It’s much warmer this morning across the Houston area, as humidity and higher temperatures return and will stay for a while. This southerly flow in combination with a weak, stalled cold front will lead to some pretty healthy rain chances later today, tonight, and Wednesday morning. It’s nothing we’re too concerned about, but it could put a damper on some Halloween escapades this evening.

Halloween and tonight

One of my least favorite things about fall weather in Houston is the stalling front—a cool front with just enough oomph to make it into the Houston area, but essentially stalls or fizzles out near the coast. This creates favorable conditions for rain (and sometimes thunderstorms) but no lasting cooling. Alas, that is what we will see today, as moisture moves back in from the Gulf of Mexico and meets the unstable air from the front.

I think we’re going to see mostly light to moderate, scattered rain showers for this morning, with the added possibility of a few scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Rain chances increase this evening—right around trick-or-treating time—and then really pick up later tonight and into Wednesday morning. For the most part I’d guess we’re looking at 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall, but areas near the stalled front where heavier showers develop could see 4 or more inches over time. I don’t think we’re looking at flood concerns, because the rainfall rates don’t look particularly intense, but some areas could see steady rainfall for a number of hours that adds up.

This HRRR model forecast for radar activity at 5pm CT shows the potential for showers this evening. (Weather Bell)

My hope is that most neighborhoods can get enough dry time this evening between 6 and 8pm for trick or treating (no guarantees on that, sorry) and that we’re all inside celebrating an Astros World Series victory after the widespread, heavier rain arrives.

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Chance of rain on Halloween as Houston warms significantly this week

Did you enjoy our brief romp with winter? Houston smashed some records with a low temperature of 35 degrees on Sunday at Bush Intercontinental Airport (breaking a mark of 39 degrees), and a low of 39 degrees at Hobby Airport (breaking a mark of 42 degrees). Perhaps hell is freezing over because the Houston Astros are about to win the World Series? Anyway, this cold spell offered a taste of winter, but after another pleasant day Monday we’re going to settle back into a warmer pattern for awhile.

Today

Southerly winds have already returned, and while this morning saw clear and cool conditions in the low 50s, we’ll warm quickly  into the upper 70s under mostly sunny skies.

Halloween

Tuesday will offer mostly treats in terms of weather—but potentially a few tricks as well. We’re going to see a weak cool front move into the Houston area and then essentially stall at or near the coast. Effectively, this means we are going to see some increasing rain chances later on Tuesday, especially to the west and southwest of the Houston metro area.

Temperatures during trick-or-treating will be pleasant. But what of the our rain chances? (Weather Bell)

While some light rain is possible in Houston during the afternoon and evening hours, I’m hopeful that some or most of the region will remain dry. However, rain chances will improve significantly during the overnight hours. Temperatures during trick-or-treating will likely be in the upper 60s to lower 70 degrees.

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Harris County Judge releases 15-point plan to address Houston flooding

Nearly two months have passed since Hurricane Harvey drowned the upper Texas coast. There have been numerous public hearings, state meetings, and some squabbling about who should pay for cleanup, reconstruction, and mitigation.

But for the first time, this week, Harris County Judge Ed Emmett stepped forward with some concrete ideas about how the make future flooding events like Harvey less worse. “Now is not the time for a piecemeal approach,” he said Wednesday, during a news conference, in which he released a 15-point plan. “The sense of urgency created by Harvey will fade, so we must quickly commit ourselves to a comprehensive plan to redefine Harris County and the surrounding region as a global model for living and working in a flood-prone area.”

Texas Army National Guard soldiers move through flooded Houston on Monday, August 28. (US Army photo)

We have included each of Emmett’s 15 proposals below to spur the community discussion. There are a lot of good ideas here. One of the things that makes the most sense, from our perspective, is the creation of a regional floodwater management organization that would consist of representatives from area cities, counties, and other government organizations. Such a body could take a holistic approach to flooding, which is truly a regional problem, identify problems, find solutions, and then present them with a unified voice from the greater Houston community.

The biggest problem is that enacting a lot of these ideas will require cooperation between city, county, state, and federal officials. The political environment for such cooperation seems poor at this time, but Emmett is correct that if the region does not act now, Harvey will fade into memory and Houston will remain as vulnerable as ever to flooding. Ultimately, making a lot of these changes will require pressure from citizens, civic organizations, non-profits, and those who take the long view that Houston should be a great, livable city for decades and centuries to come.

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