Eric Berger

We’re going to see a potentially dynamic day of weather on Thursday as a dying cold front approaches the metro area. Friday will be a transition day before high pressure clamps down on the region over the weekend and beyond.

As a weak cool front sags down toward the Houston area this morning, a broken line of moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms will move with it. As of 6:30am CT, this line stretches from Luling to Navasota to Huntsville, but it should gradually move the east-southeast, and into the Houston area.

Based upon high-resolution modeling, it appears as though the best rain chances will be north of Interstate 10 this morning, along the highway and through the central Houston area during the middle of the day, and closer to the coast later this afternoon and early evening. I think these showers will be pretty hit-or-miss, meaning that some areas will probably only get a smattering of rain while a neighborhood a few miles away gets lots of lightning and  1-, or 2-, or even in a few isolated cases perhaps as much as 3-inches of rainfall. Because some of these isolated cells may produce some heavier showers, we can’t rule out some street flooding throughout the day under the strongest storms. Rains should end by around 6 to 8pm for most of the area.

Cloud cover today should help limit high temperatures to the upper 80s or around 90 degrees.

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Over the last 10 days Houston experienced its first taste of multiple 90-degree days in succession, and the next step function will come when we move into the mid-90s. For Houston, highs in the mid-90s are proper hot, meaning these temperatures are characteristic of mid-summer in Houston. It can get hotter, certainly, but the mid-90s are the bread-and-butter of summertime in Houston. We’re likely to get our first taste of them this weekend, as high pressure settles over the area.

Wednesday

It’s breezy this morning, with fairly strong southerly winds that could gust above 20mph today as they bring moisture into the area. A few scattered, light showers may pop up later this morning, but skies should nonetheless clear out this afternoon, allowing high temperatures to push up to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight will fall into the mid-70s except for the coast, which will be warmer.

If you’re traveling to the Dallas-Fort Worth area today, a cold front will be moving through North Texas, and bringing potentially quite severe weather (with the usual threat of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes). This weather should remain north of the Houston area on Wednesday, but could move into the College Station area by around midnight or shortly thereafter.

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There’s a lyric in a Steve Earle song called The Rain Came Down that reminds me of Houston’s weather every time I hear it: “It’ll wash you away and there ain’t never enough.” Such was the case for Houston during the month of May, with heavy rainfall and significant flooding during the first two weeks of the month followed by almost nothing since then. The map below shows rain totals over the last two weeks for the greater Houston area.

The schism in May rainfall also represents the transition from spring storm season to summer, as high pressure more or less clamped down and temperatures shot up—seven of the last nine days have had high temperatures of 90 degrees or above. We may see a bit of a reprieve from high pressure this week, but as we get deeper into June we can expect more of it.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Conditions for the next couple of days won’t change much temperature-wise for Houston. We probably will see high temperatures of around 90 degrees, with a mix of partly sunny mornings, and mostly sunny afternoons. We can’t entirely rule out a few showers streaming in from the coast, but chances probably will only be 10 to 20 percent for both days.

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The story for the remainder of May will be building heat, the absence of rain, and lots and lots of sunshine. This isn’t full-on summer with highs in the mid- to upper-90s, but it’s darn close. We haven’t really experienced this kind of sustained heat in eight or nine months, so be sure and take care during any outdoor activities.

Thursday

The atmosphere may be able to squeeze out a few isolated showers today, especially to the southwest of the Houston area, but for the most part this will be a dry day today. A wind advisory will remain in effect along the coast, with gusts up to 30 mph. Otherwise, we can expect a partly sunny day with high temperatures of about 90 degrees.

Friday

This day will be a lot like Thursday, albeit with slightly lesser winds and rain chances near zero.

Memorial Day Weekend

Not much to say as high pressure exerts control over our weather. Look for lots of sunshine, with highs in the low 90s, and overnight low temperatures in the mid-70s.

Next week

The Memorial Day weekend pattern of mostly sunny skies and hot days will persist through much of next week. A slight chance of afternoon showers, likely due to the sea breeze, may creep back into the forecast by Tuesday or Wednesday. Forecast models are showing some slightly better rain chances by Thursday or Friday as the ridge of high pressure weakens somewhat. We shall see.