Eric Berger

In brief: Tropical Storm Milton formed in the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Normally, a tropical system in this part of the Gulf would be of serious concern to Texas, but since we’re now in October, the overall steering pattern generally pushes tropical systems away from our state. We’re sharing this post from The Eyewall because we’ve had several questions about Milton, and know many readers have family and friends in Florida.

At 5 pm ET on Saturday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded a tropical depression in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico into Tropical Storm Milton. The center of the storm is nearly stationary this evening, but it should start to move slowly to the east over the next day or so before accelerating. Although it is unusual for a tropical system this far west in the Gulf of Mexico to move toward Florida, that’s exactly what we expect to happen over the next four days in response to blocking in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere.

Although we remain about four days—give or take—from a landfall along the west coast of Florida, it is important for residents of the state to take Milton very seriously. We realize that some areas of the state remain dazed by Hurricane Helene, but this is a similarly threatening storm. Although we don’t have full confidence in precisely where the storm will track, it does seem very possible that it will directly impact the greater Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro area, which has a population in excess of 3 million people.

Please remember that the forecast can and will change in the coming days. However, we have seen a fair amount of tightening in the model solutions over the last 24 hours, and increasingly they are pointing to a powerful hurricane approaching the western Florida coast, possibly near or north of Tampa Bay, by around Wednesday of next week. This post will discuss our preliminary assessment of some of the impacts from this storm.

Track and intensity

There remains a broad cone of uncertainty in regard to where Milton will go, but we can expect this to narrow somewhat during the next day or so. After Milton wobbles around the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so, it will get picked up by a front moving down into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This will help steer the storm the east, and then the northeast over the next few days.

Most of our best modeling guidance, including hurricane specific models such as the HWRF and HAFS, brings the storm to the western coast of Florida, near the Tampa Bay region, very late on Tuesday night or Wednesday. Now that a fairly well defined center of circulation has formed, I expect modeling agreement to increase over the next day or so.

In terms of intensity, there is a broad range of outcomes. The National Hurricane Center predicts a major, Category 3 hurricane at landfall on Wednesday. However, an even more powerful storm is possible given that the Gulf of Mexico is very warm, with deep oceanic heat content, and wind shear levels unlikely to disrupt Milton’s organization. Unfortunately, this is a setup for the development of a large and powerful hurricane.

Winds

Milton’s track will determine where the storms strongest winds occur; they will be along the path of the center and generally just to its right. The majority of our guidance continues to point to a hurricane somewhere between Category 2 and Category 4 intensity, which means that there is the potential for a large stretch of the Florida peninsula to experience hurricane-force winds. This level of winds will cause significant damage and likely lead to power outages.

Storm surge

With four days to develop, Milton is ultimately going to push a large and powerful storm surge toward Florida. This storm will almost certainly impact areas south of where Hurricane Helene struck in September, but at this point anywhere from the coastal bend of Florida, south to the Tampa Bay area, and further south to Fort Myers, is at risk. It is too early to talk about absolute risks, but for wherever Milton makes landfall, the storm is likely to bring a historically damaging storm surge. These impacts will be most pronounced just to the right of where the hurricane makes landfall—which again, is a location that we cannot say with any certainty yet.

Inland rainfall

Heavy rainfall is another threat from Milton. Although the storm should be moving at a fairly good clip once it reaches Florida by the middle of this week, Milton could nonetheless drench a swath of the state, from west to east as it crosses the state. Whether this occurs in the central part of the state, such as the vicinity of Orlando and the Space Coast, or further north in the coastal bend and Jacksonville, is just not clear yet. However, the risk is there for 10 or more inches of rainfall in a short period of time, which will lead to flash flooding.

Conclusions

If you’ve read this post up until now, you’ll realize that we cannot say much more at this time beyond stating that a serious hurricane threat is coming to the state of Florida this week. Sunday and Monday will be a time for preparations, as impacts such as wind and heavy rain are likely to reach the state as early as Tuesday evening.

We will have continuing coverage on The Eyewall as this very serious threat develops.

In brief: Houston’s best chance of rain for awhile comes this weekend, particularly on Saturday. But for our driest areas north and west of the city, there’s likely to be little or no relief. We’ll have better luck with a cool front that arrives on Tuesday to usher in some wonderfully drier air for most of next week.

Thursday

If you’ve been paying attention to the weather this week, then you have a good sense of what to expect today: plenty of sunshine and high temperatures in the low 90s. Winds will be light, from the north and east, at perhaps 5 to 10 mph. With dewpoints in the 60s, the air will still feel somewhat humid, but it won’t be super sticky as is customary during summertime in Houston. Lows tonight will, generally, drop into the low- to mid-70s.

Friday

We’ll start to see a few clouds on Friday, and humidity levels will rise a bit. High temperatures will range from around 90 degrees to the low 90s. Winds will be a little more pronounced, from the east at perhaps 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts. Lows fall into the lower 70s. For inland areas rain chances are near zero, but for coastal areas there is a chance of showers during the afternoon and evening hours.

Saturday

An upper-level low pressure system will bring a healthy chance of rain to coastal areas on Saturday—emphasis on coastal. If you live north of Interstate 10, you’re probably out of luck. Even areas like Pearland and Clear Lake might be on the edge of seeing meaningful rainfall. But for areas right along the coast, including Galveston, there is the potential for 1 or more inches of rainfall on Saturday. Away from the coast, highs will be in the vicinity of 90 degrees, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Overnight lows will likely drop into the mid-70s.

Sunday

We’ll see fewer clouds on Sunday, and as a result lower rain chances, even for coastal areas. But we still may see a few showers. High temperatures will probably slot into the low 90s for most of the region. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid-70s.

Next week

Monday will bring more of the same sunny, and hot weather, with highs in the low 90s. However by Tuesday morning, give or take, we should see drier air starting to move into the Houston area as part of the tail end of a fairly robust cold front in the Midwestern United States. It’s still too early to say precisely what our temperatures will be, but I expect most of us will see something in the neighborhood of highs in the upper 80s and lows in the lower 60s. With the drier air, humidity will be noticeably lower. Hopefully, at least moderately drier air will persist into the weekend.

Tropics

For Texas, there’s nothing to see here. For a deeper view, including a rampaging Kirk and newly formed Leslie, check out The Eyewall.

In brief: The overall forecast remains the same. We’ll see hot and sunny weather for a couple of more days. Saturday still should bring a decent shot of rain into the region, especially for areas closer to the coast. Then we’re back to sunny and warm until some sort of front arrives early next week, perhaps on Tuesday. A little fall weather would certainly not be unwelcome.

Wednesday and Thursday

Clear skies and warm temperatures will continue for the next couple of days across the metro area. We’ll see nearly 100 percent sunny skies, with no chance of rain, through Thursday evening. High temperatures, for the most part, will be in the low 90s. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 70s for most locations not immediately along the coast. With dewpoints remaining in the 60s, the air will feel marginally drier than typical summertime conditions in Houston. Winds remain light, generally from the east at 5 to 10 mph.

Friday

We’ll start to see a few clouds by Friday as the upper-air pattern becomes more unsettled. However, skies will still be at least partly sunny, and rain chances are only likely on the order of 20 to 30 percent. For areas inland of Interstate 10, they’re even lower. High temperatures will reach about 90 degrees for most locations, or perhaps a touch warmer.

Saturday and Sunday

We should see more cloud cover for the first half of the weekend, as well as our best rain chances for the forecast period. Locations along and south of Interstate 10—closest to the source of moisture—will probably have about a 50 percent chance of showers during the daytime, with lesser chances further inland. I do not expect a deluge, but rather a series of scattered showers pushing through. Accumulations for most locations will likely be on the order of a few tenths of an inch of rain. Highs, due primarily to the clouds, should be in the upper 80s.

By Sunday we’ll be transitioning back to a more sunny pattern. However, I still expect to see at least some partly cloudy skies, with perhaps a 20 to 30 percent chance of rainfall. High temperatures will get back into the lower 90s.

Next week

Monday should bring more clear skies and high temperatures in the low 90s. However, at some point on Monday night or Tuesday, we should see the arrival of a front, with some drier and cooler air following it into the region. There’s still quite a bit uncertainty as to how much drier air will arrive, given that our region will be receiving a glancing blow from the front rather than a full on push out of the north. Nevertheless, I expect highs to at least drop into the 80s, with lows in the 60s. It’s possible we’ll get a bit cooler than this, but determining that six days out just isn’t possible with this kind of front.

Tropics

Although some sort of tropical system may develop in the central or southern Gulf of Mexico over the next week, it is not likely to have a significant effect on our weather in Texas.

In brief: Today’s update digs a little deeper into our lack of rainfall during the second half of summer, and whether we’re going to see relief any time soon. The answer is maybe, and that especially coastal areas have a healthy chance of rain this weekend. Then, by early next week, passage of a decent fall cool front looks increasingly likely.

Drying soils in late summer

Houston started out this summer with plenty of rain. You may remember Hurricane Beryl in July? But by the end of that month conditions turned notably drier. And but for a wetter spell in late August, the last two months have been quite dry. Our soils feel the lack of rain especially keenly during August and September, as these are often the hottest months of the year, which dries things out much more quickly. Looking at the last 60 days, we can see that much of the Houston area received less than 50 percent of normal rainfall, and some western areas less than 25 percent.

So far this has not resulted in drought-like conditions—something for which we can thank Beryl. However, in the latest update from the US Drought Monitor, the northern two-thirds of the Houston region are classified as being “abnormally dry.” This is just a step short of falling into a drought. I write all of that to say we could use some rainfall this month. Our next chance comes this weekend, but unfortunately it looks like the highest odds for rainfall will be closer to the coast, areas which generally are doing OK with rainfall. Would that I had better news.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

Warm, but calm, weather will continue through much of this week. We can expect sunny days, high but not excessively so humidity levels, and sunny skies. Daytime temperatures will be in the low 90s, with overnight temperatures in the low 70s. Winds will be light all three days, from the north and east, typically not getting much above 5 mph. You probably won’t believe me, but we’re coming to the end of the time of year when we see long strings of 90-degree days, so if you like pool or beach time, this is a good week, and weekend for that.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

As noted above, our region will see some better rain chances starting Friday and lasting through the weekend. In the absence of high pressure, and with increasing levels of moisture in the atmosphere, we should see some clouds start to build on Friday, with partly to mostly cloudy conditions on Saturday, before more sunshine on Sunday. The models have gotten a little more bullish with rain chances for the weekend, especially on Saturday. However, you should set your expectations accordingly, especially if you live inland of Interstate 10.

My sense is that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the rainfall forecast so expect some change. However, if you live in a coastal county your chances of rain are probably higher than 50 percent on Saturday, and a bit lesser on Friday and Sunday. Further inland, along Interstate 10, rain chances are probably about 40 percent on Saturday, and the further you go from the coast, the lower things get.

High temperatures this weekend will be on the order of 90 degrees during the daytime, with a decent amount of humidity, and lows generally in the mid-70s.

Next week

Confidence is increasing in the arrival of a cool front early next week, likely some time on Monday or Monday night. It is not guaranteed, but there is now support in a lot of our modeling guidance for a decent push of drier and cooler air. I would expect mostly sunny weather next week, with highs in the 80s and lows in the lower 60s, but this is going to depend on the extent of the frontal push. A majority of the colder air with this system is going to get shoved east, rather than south, so we’ll have to wait and see how much relief we get. Despite those caveats, however, I’m optimistic. A little fall weather would hit the spot.

Tropics

There’s a lot going on out there, and if you want all the details we’ve got them on The Eyewall. But if you’re simply wondering, “What does this mean for Texas?” the answer is, not much. It’s been a week since we called a halt to the Texas hurricane season, and I still feel pretty good about that prediction.