Halloween forecast: Humid horrors, but few spooky showers at trick-or-treating hour

In brief: As the amount of moisture in our atmosphere increases, we’ll see higher humidity and improving rain chances from today through early next week. It won’t feel like November outside, that’s for sure. As for Halloween, we’ll see daytime showers on Thursday, but I’m hopeful that there will be some clearing by the early evening hours when the kiddos are out and about.

Big picture

With the robust southerly winds we’ve seen over the last couple of days, plenty of moisture has returned to our atmosphere. We’ve already felt that with rising humidity levels, and the sticky air will be with us until at least next Monday or Tuesday as a southerly flow prevails. However, this fertile atmosphere will also set out a welcome mat for a (very) weak front that will sag into the area over the next couple of days.

This environment will support the region’s first widespread, and meaningful rainfall in nearly two months. One should not expect complete relief from the drought-like conditions that have developed over Houston; however any rainfall at this point will be very much appreciated by our region’s flora and fauna. I’m hopeful that most of Houston and surrounding areas will get about 1 inch of rain.

At the end of October, the Lone Star State is feeling like September. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

As we look at the radar this morning, for the first time in what seems like forever there is a decent amount of offshore activity. Over the next couple of hours we will see the development of showers on shore. This activity will be fairly scattered, and favor the eastern half of the area. Rain chances are about 50 percent, and we cannot rule out a few thunderstorms. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds will blow from the south, with some gusts up to 20 mph or a bit higher. Low temperatures tonight will be muggy, in the mid-70s for most locations.

Temperatures at the time of trick-or-treating will be in the sticky upper 70s. (Weather Bell)

All Hallows’ Eve

Expect another humid, partly sunny day with highs in the mid-80s. Rain coverage will probably be greater on Thursday than Wednesday, with the potential for some thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. We expect to see a diminution in shower activity as evening comes on, but there may be some lingering showers near sunset (6:35 pm CT) as darkness comes on. Our advice? If it’s raining when you want to go trick-or-treating, just wait a bit as shower activity should subside. It will be plenty humid outside during the evening hours, with overnight lows eventually dropping into the mid-70s.

Friday

A day a lot like Thursday, albeit possibly with slightly less shower coverage.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring partly sunny skies, highs in the mid-80s, and plenty of humidity. With the state of the atmosphere I’d expect a decent chance of showers each day, although it’s difficult to say whether that’s closer to a 1-in-3 or 2-in-3 chance for most of Houston. In any case, just know there’s a chance that any outdoor plans may be briefly disrupted by a passing shower.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Monday. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Monday and Tuesday should see a continuation of this sticky pattern with scattered rain showers. Beyond that it’s possible we may see a weak front on Tuesday or Wednesday to bring a bit of drier air, followed by a stronger front next week to really cool us down in a meaningful way. Until there’s meaningful agreement in the models I don’t want to make any promises.

17 thoughts on “Halloween forecast: Humid horrors, but few spooky showers at trick-or-treating hour”

  1. Resting at the halfway point in our morning walk in Magnolia area. You’d think it’s raining out, but it’s the dang high humidity, plus the higher Dew Point. Miserable considering it’s Oct 30.
    Hoping for the rain!

    Reply
  2. Last year on this day we had a strong winter like cold front blow through. Temperatures were in the 40s all afternoon with cloudy skies and blustery northwinds. It dropped into the 30s last Halloween night. I swear I’m not making that up. It goes to show you how sharply the weather can vary year to year.

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  3. That is not going to be enough rain to even put a dent in this drought. There are huge 2 to 3 inch wide cracks in my yard and the ground is rock solid. It takes minimum 4 to 6 inches of rain to adequately replenish the soil moisture when the ground is this dry. And with us already being in a La Nina type pattern, there is no telling when our next shot at decent rain will be.

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  4. ” This activity will be fairly scattered, and favor the eastern half of the area.”
    what is the eastern half of the AREA..don’t know your “area” definition

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