Eric Berger

Conditions are quite a bit warmer across the metro area this morning, with most of the region somewhere in the 50s. Our forecast remains much the same as it’s been—with unsettled weather for a day or so, breezy weather, and then clearing conditions for what should be an excellent December weekend.

Wednesday

Today will be warm-ish for mid-December, with highs in the upper 60s under cloudy skies. Steady, southerly winds will bring the humidity, and also be pushing up moisture levels that will boost rain chances during the overnight hours. Although some light showers are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, most high-resolution models hold off any stronger storms until later Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Thursday morning

As an upper-level disturbance moves in from the west, and a cold front barrels down from the northwest, it now appears as though a fairly robust line of showers will move through southeast Texas on Thursday morning, roughly from around 2am through 8am.

This line of storms doesn’t look too severe—although some thunderstorms are possible—but showers should be heavy enough to drop 1 to 2 inches of rainfall on their way through the area. Fortunately the storms should make fairly steady progress and not linger too long.

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Another cold and frosty morning for the region, with a light freeze for areas north of Houston, including Conroe and Huntsville, and mid- to upper-30s in the city itself. We’ll now see a moderate warming trend through Thursday, before another (quite blustery, as it turns out) front pushes into the area. This weekend looks spectacular for December—especially Sunday.

Tuesday

After the chilly start today, we should warm into the lower or even mid-60s under mostly sunny skies. A wind shift to the southeast will aid in the warm-up, and this onshore flow will also keep temperatures tonight a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Monday night. Skies turn partly cloudy tonight.

Wednesday

As the onshore flow does its thing, we’ll see a corresponding increase in moisture levels, and our partly cloudy skies will become mostly cloudy. This should limit highs to the upper-60s during the daytime, and we likely won’t see much of a cooldown during the evening hours. Some light showers will be possible later during the afternoon or evening, but probably will hold off until later.

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After an oh-so-gray weekend, skies have finally cleared out overnight and this has allowed temperatures to fall to near-freezing north of Houston, into the upper 30s for most of the city, and mid-40s along the coast. With light northwesterly winds out there, it’s quite cold this morning.

Monday

High pressure will dominate our weather today, and although skies will be mostly sunny, temperatures probably won’t rise much out of the mid-50s. Low temperatures on Monday night should be similar to Sunday night, so it will be another one for fireplaces and heaters.

Tuesday

This should be another sunny day, and start out a lot like Monday. However, as high pressure moves off, winds will return from the south or southeast later in the day, and this should moderate overnight temperatures. Lows Tuesday night probably will not fall below 50 degrees as the warmer Gulf of Mexico air mass exerts its influence.

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Just a quick midnight update on the state-of-play with Houston’s storms…

A heavy round of showers has now pushed east of the metro region, moving along the coast and toward Beaumont. Behind that, the front (with much lower dewpoints) is pushing into southeast Houston. And behind the front, there’s another area of fairly heavy storms moving east-northeast. We think this is probably the last really burst-y area of storms that will affect Houston tonight. After this, from 2am or 3am onward, we should see some additional light to moderate rainfall, but this too should peter out by around sunrise or shortly thereafter.

We’re still concerned about the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, which we mentioned earlier, and South Mayde Creek and Langham Creek in Western Harris County are out of their banks and spilling into nearby streets and parks, according to the Harris County Flood Control District. Elsewhere, bayous and creeks are holding.

This is almost over, so hang tight, and lets begin to dry out come sunrise.