Eric Berger

And … welcome back to August, Houston.

After a relatively cool and wet first week of our region’s hottest month, we now return you to your regular August programming, Houston. That’s right, high pressure is building, and temperatures are rising.

Thursday and Friday

Skies will become partly sunny to end the work week, and this will allow for warmer days, with highs in the lower 90s near the coast, mid-90s in Houston, and upper 90s for areas further inland. The sea breeze should be strong enough to produce some scattered showers during the afternoon and evening hours, but except for some isolated downpours, I don’t expect accumulations to be too significant. With the humidity, heat index values will be very high, likely above 105 degrees, so please take care outdoors during the warmest part of the day.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances should fall back to near zero over the weekend, with highs remaining about the same under partly to mostly sunny skies. This will be a classic August weekend in Houston so if you can manage it, the best outdoor activities will involve some sort of water or other means to cool down. Fortunately the moist ground from our recent rainfall should keep highs in the mid-90s in Houston, rather than the upper 90s, but this is a small consolation.

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Sorry Houston, typically hot August weather will soon arrive

The National Weather Service has allowed the flash flood watch to expire for the entire Houston region, with the exception of Galveston and Chambers counties. Even for these areas, showers are dying out, and we should no longer face any kind of widespread, heavy rainfall threat. It has certainly been an atypical August so far, with the absence of high pressure allowing for lots of rainfall. Another benefit has been cooler weather. The first two weeks of August are typically the hottest time of year for our region, and we’ve been blessed with highs about five degrees below normal. Here’s what it’s been like at Bush Intercontinental Airport so far.

High and low temperatures at Bush Intercontinental Airport in August. (National Weather Service)

However, as you might suspect, this isn’t going to last. As pressures rise heading into this weekend, temperatures will follow.

Wednesday

The lower pressure system in the mid-levels of the atmosphere has slid off to the east. This means there is no real impetus for widespread, heavy rainfall across the Houston area today. However, atmospheric moisture levels remain high, so we’ll definitely see at least some scattered showers today—with better chances to the east of Interstate 45—and likely some isolated downpours. Fortunately, they should be relatively short lived. Highs will be around 90 degrees.


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After very heavy rains overnight, Houston under flood watch

As discussed Monday night, a moist atmosphere and a storm system centered to the northwest of Houston produced very heavy rainfall during the overnight hours, with 1 to 6 inches of rainfall across the Houston metro area. The heaviest rains fell across the western part of the area, from areas such as Katy to Jersey Village. Most bayous have remained within their banks, but some are very nearly full. Some roadways are flooded this morning, and motorists should take care in driving around the greater Houston area. Freeways are largely passable.

Rainfall accumulation from 6:45pm Monday to 6:45am Tuesday. (HCOEM)

 

As of sunrise the bulk of the heaviest storms have moved off to the east, near Beaumont, and conditions are drying out over the greater Houston area. However, a flash flood watch remains in effect through 8am CT on Wednesday, due to the potential for additional storms to fire up this afternoon, and again during the overnight hours tonight. This is because a storm system in the mid-levels of the atmosphere remains anchored over the Waller County area. The concern, obviously, is that the heaviest rains again hit already battered western areas of the region. We will watch this closely and update as warranted.

The potential for heavy rainfall lessens—but does not go away entirely—on Wednesday and for the remainder of the week as pressures rise. Partly to mostly sunny skies should return by Thursday, and last through the weekend.

Posted at 6:50am CT on Tuesday by Eric

Heavy rains developing northwest of Houston, flooding possible

Just a quick update this evening to call attention to a large complex of thunderstorms slowly moving across northwestern Harris County, Waller County, and southwestern Montgomery County. Here, unstable air is combining with tropical moisture to produce very heavy rainfall.

The National Weather Service has issued a flood advisory through 1:30am CT on Tuesday morning, and some areas could see 3 to 5 inches of total rainfall from late Monday through early Tuesday. These rains could cause street flooding and potentially threaten some structures in low-lying areas. The primary concern is that as this system gets closer to the coast, and more tropical moisture, the storms could continue to strengthen.

Area of flood advisory in effect until 1:30am CT Tuesday. (National Weather Service)

In terms of motion, the storms seem to be slowly sagging southeastward, and may move deeper into Harris County tonight, possibly toward the central part of the Houston region.

Posted at 10:50pm CT on Monday by Eric