Eric Berger

Summary: After a front blows in today, Houston will see mostly sunny conditions this week with a sustained run of lovely spring-like weather. Seriously, it doesn’t get much better than this on the upper Texas coast. Conditions will turn warmer and a bit muggier this weekend.

Goldilocks season

These in-between months in Houston, October and November in the fall, and March and April in the spring, often bring the best weather of the year—if you like mild conditions. With the arrival of a front today, we’re set up for almost a full week of mostly sunny weather, with pleasantly warm days and modestly chilly nights. After some chances today, rain should be non-existent through the weekend.

Knowing what is coming in just a couple of months, please enjoy the great outdoors this week!

Monday

It’s overcast and muggy this morning, with temperatures of about 70 degrees and plenty of humidity. We’ll see some scattered, mostly light showers this morning ahead of a cool front. As this front passes through Houston, likely late morning for areas west of Houston, around noon or 1 pm for downtown, and perhaps 2 or 3 pm for the coast, we are likely to see a broken line of showers with possibly a few thunderstorms. Not everyone will see rain, and those that do are likely to see only a few tenths of an inch as the storms exit quickly to the east.

Highs today will, generally, be in the upper 70s. Drier air will filter in to the area this afternoon, as winds shift to come from the northwest. Winds may be briefly gusty from the west with the front, but should settle down fairly quickly. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-50s in Houston.

Tuesday

Look for sunny skies, highs in the low 70s, with dry air. Winds will be from the north at about 10 mph. Lows on Tuesday night will drop to near 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Wednesday

Another day with highs in the low 70s. We will likely see some clouds mix in, due to a somewhat disturbed atmosphere. But this should not result in any precipitation that reaches the ground, except maybe for a few sprinkles near places like Conroe. But for the most part this will be a partly sunny day. Lows again drop to near 50 degrees Wednesday night.

Thursday

A sunny day, with highs in the low- to mid-70s. Lows on Thursday night drop into the 50s.

Friday

You guessed, it more sunshine! By this point there will should be a weak onshore flow reestablished, so we’ll see a bit of an uptick in atmospheric moisture, but overall humidity still looks fairly low.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks warmer, with a continued onshore flow. Look for highs, likely, in the low-80s. Saturday looks partly to mostly sunny, while Sunday probably will see more clouds. By Sunday dewpoints will be in the 60s, so the air will feel a bit more sticky.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday of next week look warmer, in the 80s, before we may see some kind of front move in. That probably will bring our next realistic chance of rain.

If you’re wondering about weather for the upcoming eclipse on April 8, we touched on that in our monthly Q&A post on Friday—the bottom line is that it’s too early to say anything sensible.

Summary: If you live in central or northern Houston, there is a healthy chance of storms tonight after midnight.

Good afternoon, everyone. Just a brief update to say that, as expected, widespread showers and thunderstorms that developed this morning are now winding down. The heaviest rains did, indeed, fall closer to the coast with some locations near Alvin and Santa Fe picking up about 5 inches of rain. These areas are now probably done for today and tonight.

Instead the focus shifts up north, where a line of storms is expected to propagate from west to east, generally along and north of Interstate 10. In terms of timing, this line will probably reach the Bryan-College Station area around midnight or shortly before, push through Montgomery County an hour or two later, and reach Beaumont-Port Arthur by around 3 am give or take.

For the most part these probably will be thunderstorms—hence the invocation of our excitable dogs scale. On a scale of 1 to 10, we’re probably looking at about a 7 tonight in terms of dogs barking and carrying on. There is a risk for some more severe weather, in terms of hail and possibly damaging winds, but the overall atmosphere is not ideal for this to occur in the Houston metro area. For those who live east of Houston, particularly the Beaumont-Port Arthur area, I do think there is a higher chance of severe thunderstorms with this system’s passage.

Our weather quiets down on Friday morning with a weak front and some drier air. Matt will have full details for you in the morning.

Summary: Houston faces a day of unsettled weather, with the threat of heavy rain and hail, before a largely unbroken string of partly to mostly sunny, spring-like days with highs in the 70s. Saturday looks especially nice for outdoor activities.

Thursday

We’re seeing scattered thunderstorms just before sunrise in Houston this morning, and coverage should fill in throughout the morning in response to deepening moisture in the atmosphere. I’d anticipate the strongest storms developing between now and about 2 pm, with the greatest threat along and south of Interstate 10. The primary concerns are heavy rainfall and, within stronger thunderstorms, some hail and potentially damaging winds.

Conditions should clear out some later this afternoon and during the early evening hours. However, a second round of storms will possible around around midnight or shortly after, ahead of a weak front. In contrast to this morning, this line of storms looks fiercest to the north of Interstate 10, and may not bring any additional rain to coastal areas. All told I expect a wide variance in rain accumulations, with most of the area picking up between 1 and 3 inches today. This should not be enough to cause significant flooding, but it may briefly back up some streets.

In terms of temperatures, look for highs today in the upper 60s, with cloudy skies when it is not raining. Winds will, generally, be from the east with strong gusts possible during thunderstorms. Lows tonight will drop into the low 60s in Houston.

Friday

In the wake of Thursday’s storms the weather on Friday will be calmer. Look for highs in the mid-70s with partly sunny skies. Winds will be from the northwest at perhaps 15 mph, with higher gusts. This drier air will allow lows on Friday night to drop into the mid-50s for most locations, with slightly warmer conditions near the coast.

Saturday

A lovely day! Look for highs in the upper 70s, sunny skies, and light northerly winds. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the upper 50s in Houston, and lower 60s closer to the coast.

Sunday

As the onshore flow returns with avengeance, we’re going to see some cloud cover building. This should help to limit highs in the mid-70s for most. Another difference from Saturday will be the wind, from the south. Expect sustained winds at 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Lows on Sunday night will only drop into the upper 60s.

Next week

Another front, with the possibility of some additional rain and storms, will move into Houston on Monday. At this point the storms don’t look nearly as widespread or strong as what’s happening today, but the forecast could change a bit. This front should set the stage for some lovely spring-like weather next week, with highs generally in the upper 70s, lows in the 50s and 60s, sunny skies and reasonably dry air. Pretty, pretty good.

Summary: After mild conditions today we’re looking ahead to the possibility of widespread showers and the potential for thunderstorms on Thursday. Following that, the weekend looks exceptional, especially Saturday. Also, in today’s post, we note that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be a busy one.

Looking ahead to hurricane season

Before jumping into the forecast for this week, I want to look ahead to the coming Atlantic hurricane season. It formally begins in a little more than two months, on June 1. For the full rundown, I want to point you to our companion site, The Eyewall, where Matt has gone in depth. But the long and short of it is this: It’s becoming increasingly difficult to objectively look at things without concluding that the upcoming hurricane season could be a very active one. Here are some key takeaway messages:

• El Niño continues to slowly erode away in the Equatorial Pacific.
• La Niña development continues to look plausible, if not likely by August or September, a feather in the cap of an active hurricane season forecast.
• Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures remain excessively warm virtually everywhere that matters.
• We are likely to see some very active hurricane season forecasts get released in the coming weeks.

By no means does an active, or even a hyper-active, Atlantic hurricane season mean that the upper Texas coast will be impacted this summer. It just raises the likelihood of this occurring. We’ll have more information for you on preparedness measures to take in the coming weeks.

Wednesday

It’s a mild morning, with temperatures generally in the mid- to upper-50s. We’ll see a bit of sunshine, but for the most part skies this afternoon will be mostly cloudy, and this will help to limit highs to around 70 degrees. Although we’re now under the influence of a southerly flow, we’ll still see some fairly dry air in place today, so humidity will be fairly low. Winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Some very light, very scattered showers are possible this afternoon and evening, but for the most part I expect these to hold off until Thursday. Lows tonight will drop into the low 60s.

Thursday

Here comes the rain. With the approach of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, we’ll see an increasing amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Some time on Thursday morning, probably (but not certainly) before sunrise, we’ll start to see development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. These will likely become more widespread after sunrise and through the morning hours. We may see a bit of a reprieve during the late afternoon and early evening hours, but a final round of storms could push through late Thursday evening or during the overnight hours. The primary threats from this system are heavy rainfall, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible, and hail.

Highs on Thursday will reach about 70 degrees, with easterly winds. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Friday

We’ll see a northwesterly flow on Friday in the wake of Thursday’s storms, and this should allow for clearing skies. With more sunshine, expect highs to push into the mid- to upper-70s. As a bit of drier air moves in, look for lows on Friday night to drop into the 50s, and possibly the low 50s for areas further inland.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks fine for outdoor activities—especially Saturday. We’ll see plenty of sunshine, light winds, and dry air. Look for highs in the upper 70s. Really, could you ask for more? Sunday will still see a bit of sunshine, but we’re going to see the onshore flow returning, and I expect we’ll see some gusty southerly winds at 20 or 25 mph and increasing cloud cover. Highs will again be in the upper 70s, probably.

Next week

We’ll see some rain chances on Monday, and possibly another chance at storms, with the passage of a cold front. This will set the stage for a pleasant week with highs in the 70s and low in the 50s. Seriously, this is peak spring in Houston, and I am here for it.