Storms possible today mostly south of I-10, after which two weak fronts bring nice weather for late May

Good morning. After a week or so of wetter and cooler weather, Houston’s pattern will transition to drier and mostly sunny conditions for awhile. We’re also going to see a couple of weak fronts that will bring us slightly less humid conditions for awhile. That is about all you can ask for during the second half of May.


There will be one last chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, as our atmosphere remains moist, and somewhat fertile for storm activity. The favored area today will be south of Interstate 10, from Galveston Bay to Matagorda Bay. Isolated areas may say 0.5 to 1.5 inch of rain. Rain chances will be lesser, perhaps 30 percent, for areas north of Interstate 10. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-80s for most. Storms should end this evening, with the loss of daytime heating. Lows tonight will drop to around 70 degrees.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday night. (Weather Bell)


A weak front arrives on Tuesday night, and this should usher in slightly drier air at the surface, and knock a lot of the moisture out of the atmosphere above. Put another way, we’re going to shift from a rainy pattern to a dry one rather abruptly in terms of precipitation. Look for partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the mid- to upper 60s for much of the region, which is rather pleasant for the second half of May.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of warm days, with highs of around 90 degrees, and sunny skies. Nighttime lows will drop to around 70 degrees.

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

My confidence is increasing that a second front will, in fact, push all the way off the coast. Saturday is likely to be warm and sunny ahead of the front, with highs near 90 degrees. There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, along with the front’s passage, with clouds building overnight. Lows likely drop to around 70 degrees. On Sunday we’ll probably see mostly cloudy skies, with highs in the mid-80s.

Next week

The first half of next week should see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with daytime highs in the mid-80s. Dewpoints will drop into the mid-60s, which is going to feel slightly more comfortable than typical dewpoints in Houston. The bottom line is that this is probably spring’s last gasp. It’s not going to be much, but it’s also a world of difference from highs in the 90s and sultry, summertime humidity.

Stormy pattern will gradually shift to a sunnier one for our region

Good morning. After a wet weekend that left several area rivers and bayous near or over tops of their banks, and saturated area soils, our region will begin to transition to a somewhat drier pattern overall. However, a healthy chance of storms will remain today for areas along and west of Interstate 45 before our skies turn sunnier on Tuesday and then remain that way for most of the remainder of the week.


The problem for today is that our atmosphere remains fairly moist, and we’re not quite done with atmospheric disturbances. This should allow showers and thunderstorms to fire up southwest of Houston early this afternoon, and then lift northward into western and central parts of the city, before exiting to the north by around sunset. Most areas west of Interstate 45 will likely see around 0.5 inch of rain, which is totally manageable. But some areas could pick up 1 to 3 inches beneath stronger thunderstorms, and this may briefly back-up streets. For this reason, I’m going to keep a Stage 1 flood alert going for the western half of the Houston region, basically areas west of I-45.

Excessive rain outlook for Monday in Houston. (NOAA)

Skies will otherwise be mostly cloudy, and for most areas this should limit high temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds, outside of thunderstorms, will generally be light at about 5 mph out of the east. Low temperatures tonight will drop to around 70 degrees in Houston as rain chances recede to near zero.


A weak cool front arrives on Monday night, and this will shift our winds to come from the west or northwest. Unfortunately, it will also provide a bit of instability that will help produce one more round of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. While I don’t expect these to be as widespread as the rain on Monday, I think there’s still a solid 30 to 50 percent chance of showers on Tuesday afternoon. Expect partly sunny skies with highs in the mid-80s. Lows on Tuesday night will drop to around 70 degrees.


Rain chances drop back to around 20 percent, with mostly sunny skies during the afternoon hours. Look for highs in the mid- to upper 80s during the afternoon and, for some inland areas, lows dropping into the mid- to upper 60s on Wednesday night. That is some May cold front action for you, Houston!

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning. (Weather Bell)

Thursday and Friday

These should be a pair of mostly sunny days with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Lows will drop into the low 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is—dare I say it on a Monday morning, up in the air? There looks to be a second front coming this weekend, and while it’s too early to say for sure, I think there’s a decent chance it pushes all the way through Houston and off the coast on Saturday. This could bring some scattered showers with it. For now let’s ballpark partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s. If the front makes it, I wouldn’t rule out some lows in the mid-60s for most of the metro area early next week. We’ll see.

A soggy Mother’s Day is in store for Houston before the threat of heavy rainfall ends

Good morning. Alas we’re seeing an atmospheric disturbance slowly move northward through the region this morning, and it is driving a band a strong thunderstorms throughout the central part of the metro area. Given the ongoing abundance of low pressure and atmospheric moisture, we’re going to see one more day with conditions favorable for heavy rainfall today.

Areas in red are most at risk for heavy rainfall on Sunday. (NOAA)

Most of the region is likely to pick up and additional 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall today, so we’re not concerned about significant flooding for most of the area. But we will see some areas with higher totals, and there definitely will be the potential for streets to briefly back up beneath strong and slow-moving thunderstorms. For this reason we are maintaining a Stage 1 flood alert through the afternoon hours in Houston. We expect the disturbance to continue moving north, and eventually pull away from the area this evening. Due to the clouds and persistent rainfall, high temperatures today likely will top out at about 80 degrees.

Rain chances will hang around after today, but they’re going to go down starting Monday, and the threat of heavy rainfall will drop accordingly. We should start to see the return of a fair amount of sunshine by Tuesday or Wednesday, with slightly drier air from a weak front.

Chance of heavy rain increases for this weekend, necessitating a Stage 1 flood alert

Good morning. As anticipated, a line of strong storms has developed to the west of Houston this morning, roughly from College Station all the way south to Corpus Christi. We expect these storms to continue to build slowly to the east, and into Houston later this morning and the afternoon hours. There remains a lot of uncertainty about how much punch these storms will have as they progress closer to, and into the Houston metro area. But we now have enough concerns about the potential for heavy rain to issue a Stage 1 flood alert out of concern for street flooding today and tonight.

The most problematic time for rainfall will be from the mid-morning hours today through the afternoon. However, at this time we can’t rule out the additional development of showers tonight, and on Sunday, as a series of disturbances plow through our moist atmosphere. Please check the radar before heading out, and if you have outdoor activities on the schedule for this weekend, have a back-up plan. And since it’s Mothers Day weekend, I know many of you do have plans.

Areas at risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday and Saturday night. (NOAA)

Overall, I expect most of the region to see 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall this weekend, but areas west and southwest of Houston have a greater risk of heavy rainfall, and isolated areas may see 2 to 6 inches of rainfall. Due to the aforementioned uncertainty about this weekend’s weather, Matt and I will continue to keep an eye on things. We apologize to all the moms out there for the lousy weather this weekend.