Eric Berger

Rain returning soon to Houston, and concerns about the tropics increase

Good morning. Today we’re just going to take a quick look at the weather forecast, and then focus our attention on the tropics, where Invest 99L continues to be a system of interest.

Today

I expect another day like Tuesday, with only isolated to scattered rain chances and highs in the mid-90s (the temperature got to 95 degrees on Tuesday in Houston). Skies will be mostly sunny.

Thursday and beyond

High pressure is going to move off to the east later today or Thursday, and this should bring an increase in cloud cover and rain chances, likely keeping high temperatures to around 90 degrees. I do not anticipat any significant flooding, and most of the area should see only perhaps about an inch or so of rain over the next several days. However that does not preclude the possibility of some locally heavy rain. Essentially, expect our pattern of a cooler, wetter August to continue for most of the rest of the month.

Tropics

For a couple of days we’ve been discussing the possibility of a tropical system known as Invest 99L moving into the Gulf of Mexico, and that remains a distinct possibility. The system is not yet a depression or a tropical storm (it has an 80 percent chance of becoming one in the next five days, says the National Hurricane Center), but as it approaches Puerto Rico today it appears increasingly likely that it will reach Florida by Saturday or Sunday.

Possible track of Invest 99L. (NOAA)
Possible track of Invest 99L. (NOAA)

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Invest 99L not developing yet, but it’s a potential Gulf threat

As promised, here’s another look at the tropics as we near the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Like with our post on Monday, today we’re going to focus almost exclusively on a tropical wave known as Invest 99L, rather than the rapidly strengthening Tropical Storm Gaston, which likely will become a hurricane later today or on Wednesday. This is because Gaston is unlikely to threaten land, and the same unfortunately cannot be said for Invest 99L.

What is Invest99L?

For now it’s a tropical wave nearing the Lesser Antilles. The system has had some difficulty organizing up until now because of dry air, which has helped to limit the development of thunderstorms. Here’s the satellite presentation from about 1:45pm CT on Tuesday afternoon.

Satellite appearance of Invest 99L on Tuesday afternoon. (NOAA)
Satellite appearance of Invest 99L on Tuesday afternoon. (NOAA)

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A bit drier now, but rain chances return later this week for Houston

For once, the radar is mostly quiet this morning. The reprieve in showers won’t last too long, however.

Today and Wednesday

Pressures have risen over the Houston metro area as the region has fallen under the western edge of a large area of high pressure anchored over the southeastern United States. This is going to bring a couple of more typical August days to Houston, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, a fair amount of sunshine and some scattered showers during the afternoon hours.

High pressure is (sort of) in control of Houston's weather today and Wednesday. (Weather Bell)
High pressure is (sort of) in control of Houston’s weather today and Wednesday. (Weather Bell)

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Tropics heating up: One storm may track toward Florida this weekend

As one would expect toward the end of August, the Atlantic tropics are starting to heat up, and we may see both a Gaston and a Hermine within the next week. As of 1pm CT on Monday, here’s the state of play in the Atlantic tropics.

(National Hurricane Center)
(National Hurricane Center)

 

The red blob on the right is Invest 90L, and it’s soon to become Tropical Storm Gaston. I feel pretty confident that that’s all we’re going to gave to say about Gaston as a threat, because it has the look of a “fish storm,” meaning the system will probably recurve before it reaches the United States. We may have some concerns down the road about this being a threat to Bermuda, but I don’t think it gets that far west.

So what about the other storm?

Unfortunately we can’t be so dismissive about the orange blob, which is Invest 99L. The system remains rather disorganized right now, and due to the influence of dry air the National Hurricane Center only gives 99L a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm or depression during the next five days.

While the system may not develop it’s expected to drift toward the Bahamas by this weekend. Here’s a look at the GFS model forecast positions for the “low” associated with 99L by Sunday night:

(Weather Bell)
GFS model forecast for Sunday night. (Weather Bell)

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