Eric Berger

It’s a warm morning across the region, with lows generally in the mid- to upper-60s across the region. This is more than 20 degrees above normal for January, and this near-record warmth is going to be more or less what we get through Sunday.

Today and Thursday

We’ll continue to see brisk southerly and southeasterly winds, which will bring very warm and moist air into the region. Highs should reach as high as 80 degrees across parts of Houston, and record high temperatures especially today (81 degrees at Bush IAH, 80 degrees Hobby, 75 degrees Galveston) are within reach. Skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy. Lows may not fall below 70 degrees for some areas between downtown Houston and the coast, and fog may become an issue during the early morning hours.

Friday and Saturday

After a cold front stalls across north Texas on Friday, so this won’t modify our weather’s region much. However winds should die down a little bit, and as moisture continues to accumulate in the atmosphere from the onshore flow we’re going to see some chances for scattered, light rain—but I would expect anything too heavy. Highs will be in the mid-70s for most of Houston, with lows in the mid-60s.

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)

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Good morning. Any vestiges of last weekend’s Arctic blast have fled from Houston now, retreating from a warm and moist southerly winds blowing into the region from The Gulf of Mexico and the country itself. The pronounced flow will make for warm temperatures for much of the United States.

Today

Expect a breezy day as southerly winds gust into the low 20s. Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy as high temperatures climb into the upper 70s. Expect lows tonight to fall only into the mid-60s.

Wednesday and Thursday

Not really sure what to say about these days other than … WTF?!? We’ll get another couple of very winds (20-25mph gusts) days, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures of around 80 degrees. Did I mention that this is typically the coldest time of year? The record high for both days is 81 degrees, and we’ll have to watch and see if those are broken. Overnight lows will probably remain in the upper 60s.

Friday and Saturday

A cold front will enter Texas on Friday but stall north of the Houston region. Along with more favorable dynamics in the upper atmosphere, this should lead to at least some scattered rain chances on both days, and we can’t rule out some thunderstorms. With the possibility of some rain and the return of some clouds, expect highs to moderate slightly, perhaps into the mid-70s.

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)

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If only the Houston Marathon were run this morning. Yes, it’s cold on the morning a week from the marathon, but temperatures are now above freezing, winds are light, and skies are clear. Unfortunately, as we look ahead to next weekend, the forecast is anything but clear.

Here’s what we know as of Sunday morning about the week ahead: Temperatures this week will be warm. Highs from Tuesday through Saturday will be warm, likely between 70 and 80 degrees for nearly all the metro area. We also know that at some point toward the end of the week a cold front will move into Houston—but the timing is uncertain, and therefore so is the forecast. In addition to concerns about temperatures we’ve also got to worry about precipitation along with the front, especially if the cold front passage occurs between midnight Saturday and noon on Sunday, which seems entirely plausible at this point.

In terms of uncertainty, here’s what I mean. About 28 of the 50 ensemble members of the European model bring the cold front though Houston by 6 am CT on Sunday. But only half of those models bring the front through substantially before the start of the marathon, such that any associated precipitation is likely to have cleared out.

And so it is very difficult to make a forecast for the marathon. There is perhaps a one-third chance that the front moves through on Saturday, making for a clearing and colder race morning. There is perhaps a one-third chance the front arrive just before, or during the race, which makes for a wet race morning, with perhaps 1 inch of rain or so (potentially a wet and windy mess). And there is perhaps a one-third chance the front doesn’t make it through until after the race, making for a warm, humid run.

I hope we will find some clarity in the forecast in a day or two, but as of right now the forecast is a mess because the timing of the front is so close to race day.

(Space City Weather is sponsored by Westbury Christian School for this month)