Warm this week, yes, but winter proper arrives by Monday

Good morning. It’s still warm out there, but winter — real winter for Houston — is finally in sight.

TODAY

It’s incredibly warm this morning in Houston. The record for a high minimum temperature today is 68 degrees, and this morning’s low was just 71 degrees. There’s a slight chance of rain this morning before skies clear out this afternoon and evening. We should see some sunshine and high temperatures could approach 80 degrees.

CHRISTMAS EVE

As some drier air moves in on Wednesday it will allow for some moderately cooler overnight conditions on Thursday morning, with lows at least 10 degrees cooler than today. However this won’t last as moisture comes charging back in from the Gulf of Mexico. This is unlikely to produce much rain, but it will set the stage for a wet holiday weekend.

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This week: A hot, wet mess

We’re going to have uneven weather this week, mostly warm with some rain showers, before a strong front moves through early next week.

TODAY

Temperatures are a bit cooler this morning, but it won’t last. There are a couple of features that may bring some rain into the region today and tonight.

NOAA water vapor image from 8:15 a.m.
NOAA water vapor image from 8:15 a.m.

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Our sweltering December in perspective, and my official Christmas forecast

I’ll get to the forecast for Christmas week and weekend in a minute, but first I wanted to put some of this month’s temperatures into perspective.

DECEMBER

Houston has had a warm December, but how warm? The answer is not that much warmer than normal. ┬áSo far this month has had an average temperature of 58.0 degrees, and that’s going to probably end up a few degrees higher by the end of this week given what’s ahead.

Nevertheless, as the chart below shows, even an average temperature of 60 degrees would remain well beneath the all-time record for December (set way back in 1889), and it’s far from a certainty that this December will even finish within the city of Houston’s top 10 warmest Decembers.

(SpaceCityWeather.com)
Note 2015 data are through Saturday. (SpaceCityWeather.com)

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Splendid weather through Saturday, heavy rain possible early next week

It’s chilly across Houston this morning, with lows ranging from the upper 30s for areas well inland to about 50 degrees on the coast. This cooler pattern, with highs only rising into the low 60s and splendid sunny days, will remain in place through Saturday.

SUNDAY

Onshore flow resumes from the Gulf of Mexico, increasing clouds, raising high temperatures to about 70 degrees and bringing back a slight chance of rain.

MONDAY-TUESDAY

In addition to warmer temperatures and more humid conditions, an upper-level disturbance on Monday will bring a good chance of rain to the area, perhaps quite a bit of rain, on Monday and Tuesday.

Forecast from NOAA for rain next Monday and Tuesday. Amounts remain highly uncertain. (Weather Bell)
Forecast from NOAA for rain next Monday and Tuesday. Amounts remain highly uncertain. (Weather Bell)

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