Threat of storms to continue in Houston this weekend and beyond

Good afternoon. Matt’s forecast from this morning still holds up pretty well, but I wanted to provide a quick update on storm possibilities looking ahead.

FRIDAY EVENING

We’ve seen some strong thunderstorms fire up from the Lake Jackson area to Alvin this afternoon, and we’ll continue to see at least some scattered development through the evening hours as temperatures remain in the upper 80s helping to fuel these storms. Much of Houston will not see rain, but where these storms do fire up this evening they have the potential to be intense and flood streets. Small hail is also a possibility. I do not expect coverage to be quite as widespread at Thursday evening, but these things are hard to predict. Storms end by 9 or 10pm with the loss of heating.

Storms mainly have developed to the south of Houston this afternoon, but they may migrate further inland this evening. (Intellicast)
Storms mainly have developed to the south of Houston this afternoon, but they may migrate further inland this evening. (Intellicast)

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Strong thunderstorms on the west side of Houston

A line fairly strong thunderstorms has developed this evening to the west and southwest of Houston, bringing locally heavy rains, intense winds and dime-sized hail. These storms are moving slowly to the east-southeast.

The area of heaviest storms as of 9pm is indicated below:

Area of heaviest storms through 9:30pm CT. (National Weather Service)
Area of heaviest storms through 9:30pm CT. (National Weather Service)

 

So far bayous are holding up fine, but there is some localized street flooding beneath the heaviest rains.

Some of the latest modeling suggests these storms may intensify for the next couple of hours, before weakening later tonight. If they’re going to present an ongoing threat we’ll update the site later.

Posted at 9pm CT Thursday

Warm, dry conditions for Houston to start the weekend, rain returns next week

It’s another morning with 100 percent, or near 100 percent humidity across the area, and lows generally in the mid-70s across the area.

TODAY

There were strong storms during the overnight hours in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, but as the associated system has sagged to the southeast it has weakened. This should leave the Houston area with partly to mostly sunny skies for the first half of today. A slow-moving, weak front will then push into the area later this afternoon. There’s some chance of thunderstorms with this system, but at this point there just doesn’t seem to be enough lift with the front to really drive widespread showers. Most areas probably won’t see rain as the front slowly moves through Houston this afternoon, evening and tonight.

Approximate location of the cool front this evening from 7-10pm CT. (National Weather Service)
Approximate location of the cool front this evening from 7-10pm CT. (National Weather Service)

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Near-normal Atlantic hurricane season likely, but some Gulf concerns

To begin with, I’ll be honest and say I don’t place much stock in hurricane season forecasts. For one, they’re not particularly accurate (although they do demonstrate some skill). Secondly, although it may be a slow hurricane season overall, if the one big storm that develops hits your community it sure wasn’t a slow hurricane season for you. With that being said there are three main factors we can look at now to get some sense of what is coming beginning on June 1 with the Atlantic season.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

Simply put, when all other things are equal, warm water provides more fuel for hurricanes. At their most basic level hurricanes are essentially heat exchangers, bringing heat from the tropics into the northern latitudes. More heat in the tropics means more potential energy for these storms.

In the chart below the European forecast model is predicting the sea surface temperature anomaly for the period of July through September, the most critical months for hurricane formation and the state of Texas.

(ECMWF)
Sea surface temperature anomaly for July through September. (ECMWF)

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