Eric Berger

In brief: Beryl’s approach to Texas will lead to a messy Sunday night and Monday morning across the Houston region. The storm’s core of strongest winds will pass directly through the city, but we’ve been fortunate to not see rapid intensification (so far) today. This post highlights the latest forecast and threats to the metro area.

Beryl status as of 10 pm CT

As it nears the Texas coast tonight, Tropical Storm Beryl’s maximum sustained winds are 70 mph, which is just below Category 1 hurricane status (winds greater than 74 mph). The storm is moving to the north-northwest at 10 mph, and is only about 70 miles away from the coast. Its central pressure, 986 mb, is slowly dropping indicating ongoing organization.

Beryl’s intensity and track

During our post this afternoon I extolled the virtues of dry air, and the fact that it was helping to slow the intensification of Beryl. Happily, that trend has continued throughout the evening hours. There is still some time for Beryl to rapidly intensify as we have seen with past hurricanes nearing the Texas shore, but time is running out with a landfall expected six to eight hours from now, between 2 am and 4 am CT on Monday. It is likely that Beryl comes ashore as a Category 1 hurricane, and the window is closing on something stronger than this. All that said, tropical systems are unpredictable, so let’s keep cheering on dry air until landfall early tomorrow.

Beryl’s track toward the coast has remained similar for a day now, with a landfall expected near or just east of Matagorda tonight. The center, traveling more or less due north, will pass near locations such as Katy and The Woodlands on Monday morning before exiting to the north.

How much will Beryl blow?

The magnitude of Beryl’s winds, and subsequent power outages, will be determined by the extent to which Beryl strengthens before landfall. It is clear that virtually no part of the Houston metro area, save for the slim possibility of Lake Jackson, is likely to experience hurricane-force sustained winds. However, much of our region is likely to see tropical storm force sustained winds during a period from the wee hours of Monday morning, starting perhaps between 2 to 4 am, through the late morning hours. Our region will see higher gusts during that period.

I went a bit deep on the possibility of power outages in our post earlier today, and my thinking more or less stands. The less that Beryl intensifies before landfall, the better. My hope is that outages will be manageable and restored within a few days. But that is not something I am comfortable guaranteeing.

Rainfall expectations

I have found myself looking at the radar this evening in equal parts awe and dread. Beryl’s center is clearly visible on Houston’s primary radar, which is located in League City. There are three concentric rings of rainbands, and that mess is headed our way over the next 12 to 16 hours.

One of my daughters told me that the prevailing sentiment on TikTok, apparently, is that because the satellite appearance of Beryl looks a lot like Hurricane Harvey from 2017, the Houston area is going to see similar rainfall amounts. God bless the kids, but they’re wrong about that. There is no comparison in the relative storm motions. Because it stalled out, Harvey’s rains unfolded over a five-day period in Houston. By contrast, we’re going to see the worst of Beryl’s rains move through in about 8 to 12 hours. Accordingly, while the rainfall rates may be similarly intense, Beryl’s storms will end much quicker and overall accumulations will be much less.

As of about 9:30 pm CT, the first of these bands was moving inland into Brazoria County, and this will steadily push into Houston tonight and Monday morning. Based upon radar trends, I would estimate that the strongest bands of rainfall will push through the metro are between 4 am and 10 am CT on Monday. Expect accumulations of 4 to 10 inches for much of the area, with higher isolated totals. Rain chances will diminish (but not go away entirely) during the afternoon and evening hours. Expect flooded streets for a time.

Storm surge

Storm surge flooding, on top of high tides on Monday morning, will probably be a bit higher than what our region experienced during Tropical Storm Alberto in many places near and east of where Beryl comes ashore, especially between Galveston and East Matagorda Bay. These flood waters should quickly recede by Monday afternoon or evening as Beryl lifts northward.

Final thoughts

Wherever you’re reading this, I hope you’ve made it home or to a safe place tonight. While this is unlikely to be a catastrophic storm, it still will be memorable due to the fact that Beryl’s center will pass directly over parts of the southwest, western, and northern Houston metro area, and make for a wild night of winds and rain. If at all possible, please stay put through the morning hours on Monday.

Matt will have a post early on Monday, when Beryl makes landfall, and refreshing the forecast. Then, around 6 am CT on Monday, we’ll have a comprehensive update on the storm and its impacts for our region. That will be followed by regular reports on Monday as we get through the worst of the storm, and onto brighter days ahead.

In brief: So far Beryl hasn’t strengthened much today, but there is yet time for intensification before a final landfall tonight. This post goes into the likelihood of such intensification and what it would mean for Houston in terms of winds and the potential for power outages. We also look at the latest rain and surge forecasts.

Beryl status at 4 pm CT

As of this afternoon Beryl remains a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Its central pressure has dropped a bit to 988 mb, indication a trend toward better organization. The storm is moving to the north-northwest at 12 mph and remains on course to make landfall near Matagorda between midnight and 4 am CT on Monday.

Intensity and track outlook

The fact that we’re not seeing significant increases in Beryl’s winds this afternoon is great news. The biggest threat to the greater Houston area from Beryl is damaging winds, and less intensification means less damage once onshore.

Beryl is running out of time to strengthen—that is not a taunt, mind you. Please let the record show I did not taunt Beryl. The storm will move inland in 8 to 12 hours. There is still time, and the waters are very warm with atmospheric shear low. However, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center note the storm is still struggling to shrug off some dry air in its core. They are still calling for an 85-mph, Category 1 hurricane at landfall, with the likelihood of rapid intensification this evening. This certainly seems plausible, but I am rooting for that dry air to keep disrupting things for just a little while longer.

In terms of track there is very little change to the system. Beryl should come ashore early on Monday, and pass near Katy a little before noon before it lifts further out of the Houston area. This rapid forward movement should continue, allowing the worst effects to begin clearing out of the city during the afternoon hours.

What to expect, and when to expect it

Tropical-storm force winds should reach the coast, near Matagorda Bay, around sunset on Sunday and push into Galveston Island a few hours later. The stronger winds will move into much of the rest of the metro area just before or after midnight tonight. The heaviest rains will arrive around the same time. Please find shelter a few hours before this.

How bad will the winds get?

For this outlook I am going to focus on the possibility of seeing sustained winds of 60 mph or greater, which is likely near the threshold for widespread power outages. The map below shows the National Hurricane Center forecast for the probability of winds of 58 mph or greater from Beryl. I’ve annotated it with circle that roughly denotes Loop 610. Winds at this speed likely will not cause roof damage (that threshold is higher, perhaps 70 to 90 mph sustained winds). The map clearly shows the risk for damaging winds and power outages is greatest to the southwest of Houston:

Several readers have asked about tornadoes. Yes, they’re possible within the rainbands of Beryl tonight and on Monday morning. However I expect their development to be fairly scattered, and the bigger threat for a majority of people will be winds directly related to Beryl’s circulation.

Some thoughts on power outages

I’ve spent a couple of hours today doing some digging to try and set some expectations for power outages tonight and later on Monday as the core of Beryl’s winds move into the greater Houston area. Our most recent tropical system with a major “wind” component was Hurricane Ike, a Category 2 storm that made landfall in 2008. It came ashore about 90 miles further east than where we expect Beryl, but it was a much larger and more powerful hurricane. Here is what Ike’s sustained winds looked like.

Ike knocked out power to 2.1 million CenterPoint Energy customers in Houston, and 10 days later the power remained out for about one-third of these customers. I want to be clear, I do not think Beryl will have this magnitude of an effect. Far from it, likely. But it’s useful to study the map of outages below and see where there were fewer problems (i.e. northwest Houston).

My back-of-the-envelope estimate here is that widespread power outages start to become more likely at sustained wind speeds of about 60 mph. The majority of Houston will probably less than this tonight, although such winds are likely in many areas of Brazoria, Fort Bend, and Matagorda counties. They are also possible west of Houston, in locations such as Katy.

My general expectation, therefore, is that power losses will be in the hundreds of thousands, and restorations in days; rather that losses above 1 million with a week or two of restoration. However that is a guess rather than a firm conviction, and given since so many people are understandably concerned about this issue.

Finally, I very much do not expect hurricane-force sustained winds tonight in any part of the Houston metro area apart from the immediate coast near Matagorda, and possibly locations such as Freeport or Lake Jackson. For what it’s worth, CenterPoint’s estimate for Category 1 winds is: “extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.”

The bottom line is that power outages will be a wait-and-see game. Good luck. Charge those phones now, my friends.

Let’s talk rainfall totals

We’ve seen some fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm activity today as Beryl’s outer rainbands have moved onshore. So far, it’s been fine. I expect to see additional storms this afternoon and evening, but it should be mostly manageable.

The main event should arrive at the coast a few hours before midnight, and push into Houston around midnight. Based on the latest modeling the “thickest” rain band will likely move through the city around 4 to 8 am, bringing intense rains that will quickly flood streets. Conditions should start to improve during the late morning hours. However I would expect to see additional rain showers later on Monday night and Tuesday due to trailing bands (which won’t be as intense). In any case, this is another good reason to stay home from this evening through Monday morning.

In terms of accumulations, it still looks like coastal areas face the highest risk, with totals of 5 to 10 inches likely, and accumulations further inland of perhaps 4 to 8 inches. What we’re most concerned about are more isolated areas that fall under the heaviest banding. These locations could see 10 or more inches of rainfall. It is impossible to predict precisely where these will set up, but the latest modeling is hinting at higher totals near Galveston Bay. We’ll see. We have a Stage 2 flood alert in place.

Storm surge

Peak storm surge levels, the combination of high tide and surge, should arrive on Monday morning the upper Texas coast. For Galveston Island and Galveston Bay, water levels are expected to be 4 to 6 feet above normal levels. Surge should be slightly higher in Matagorda Bay.

Final thoughts and plans for tonight

Beryl is on our doorstep, and its winds, rains, and waves will move into our area tonight. The key thing I’m watching over the next several hours is whether the storm starts intensifying, as a weaker Beryl will cause far fewer problems in Houston on Monday morning. As always, we will hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Please make plans to get home, or to a safe place this evening, and remain there through the morning hours on Monday.

Our next post will come around 10:30 pm CT tonight, and we’ll continue to post overnight and into Monday as this dynamic event develops.

In brief: Just a few thoughts to share on Tropical Storm Beryl tonight—basically some things I’ll be looking for on Sunday. If you’re looking for a nuts-and-bolts forecast of what impacts to expect in Houston on Monday, please see our post from earlier today, which holds up fine tonight. We’ll have a comprehensive update for you first thing in the morning.

When will Beryl start intensifying again?

As of late Saturday night, Beryl remains a high-end tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Its intensity has not changed much today, as expected, due to shear and entrainment of dry air. However, as we’ve been discussing, Beryl is moving into a more favorable environment tonight and on Sunday, and therefore it is virtually certain to re-strengthen.

One key question at this point is when Beryl starts to rev back up. This is because once Beryl starts to increase its winds, it likely won’t stop intensifying until it runs into Texas. So on Sunday I’ll be watching to see how soon Beryl’s winds start to increase, and how fast its central pressure (currently 993 mb) starts to fall.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts Beryl to come ashore as a Category 1 hurricane, with 85 mph winds. However, the forecasters there acknowledge that Beryl could rapidly intensify in the final hours before it comes ashore as the system reaches an environment with significantly lower wind shear. In addition, historically, we have seen hurricanes intensify as they near the Texas coast. The bottom line is that the later Beryl starts intensifying, the better, as it could easily become stronger than a Category 1 hurricane.

A silver lining: Beryl is moving at a good clip

One bit of good news is that the storm is moving a bit faster than expected, so it will have less time over water to get going. Some of our best models, including the European and GFS models, now bring the storm to the Texas coast around 2 to 4 am CT on Monday, several hours faster than previously thought. This will give Beryl less time to rapidly intensify.

The forward motion will also help with rainfall totals, both at landfall and after it moves onshore. Houstonians are justifiably jumpy when it comes to inland rainfall from hurricanes after Harvey, and this storm will make landfall only a little way up the coast from where Harvey did. But Beryl is no Harvey. In fact, the forecast for Beryl’s forward motion after landfall is also trending faster. So while I do expect to see some very intense rainfall in the Houston metro area on Monday, increasingly it looks as though the heavy rain will exit to our north by Monday night or early Tuesday.

We should have better clarity on Beryl’s impacts in Houston by tomorrow, as we’ll be less than a day before landfall. The bottom line is that everyone in the Houston area, but especially residents south and west of the city, should be prepared for heavy rainfall and higher winds on Monday. How much rain, and how strong the wind will be is something we’ll try to fully pin down in tomorrow’s forecast. This will, of course, depend to some extent on the rapid intensification (or not) of Beryl discussed above.

Have a good night, everyone.