Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we talk about the potential for storms this evening in Houston as a weak front sags into the area. A second push of colder air will make things feel festive on Thanksgiving Day. And we’ll see the return of a moderately warmer pattern with higher rain chances this coming weekend.

We begin today’s post with a little bit of housekeeping …

A few words on our app

Our app—which remains completely free and does not track your activity, in other words we do not monetize your data—is now a few years old. We went through some growing pains this year as both app platforms changed things up. Honestly, keeping up with everything in app-land is a lot, and so I’m glad we’ve got Dwight Silverman and Hussain Abbasi to manage all of it. There have been a fair few bugs and issues we had to slog through earlier this year, but I’m happy to report that everything has been working really well for the last couple of months. But don’t take my word for it, here’s a comment sent in by Lily Yee last week. We’re sharing it with her approval:

Hey! I just opened this app for the first time in several weeks (full honesty) and I was SHOCKED by the noticeable, significant improvement in loading speed & reaction time. To your web dev and design team – great job! 🙂 it makes a real difference on the usability. I’ll be putting this app on the front page of my phone screen now!

So if you haven’t downloaded the app, please do so now by clicking here. It’s fun, and free, and even sometimes the forecast is accurate.

Fundraiser

We’re now into the final week of our fundraiser, and I mentioned our app above because the reason we’re able to provide it, and update it, and keep it junk free is because of contributions from our readers. Your donations and purchase of merchandise now allow us to plan for next year. We want to continue iterating on the app (more on this soon) as well as make some other major upgrades like improving the distribution of our newsletter. If you can help out, please do so here.

Monday

Our brief foray with cooler fall weather on Sunday has ended, with this weekend’s front moving back onshore as a warm front overnight. Winds this morning are light, from the southeast, with temperatures around 70 degrees. Accordingly, today will be rather warm, with highs in the low 80s despite mostly cloudy skies. We are going to see scattered (mostly light) showers during the daytime along with very humid air. By this evening, likely around 7 to 9 pm, a broken line of storms associated with a cold front will develop to the northwest of Houston. This line will slowly advance into the city during the late evening hours, and push off the coast after midnight. Damaging winds will be possible with this front, perhaps gusting up to 50 mph, with potentially some hail. Overall rain accumulations will vary widely, but most of us should pick up between 0.25 and 0.75 inch.

Tuesday

The initial push of cooler air with with this front will be fairly weak. As a result I expect highs of around 80 degrees on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and lower humidity. Low temperatures on Tuesday night should drop into the 50s.

Wednesday

A secondary push of colder air arrives overnight, into Wednesday morning, and this will result in breezier northerly conditions. Winds may gust out of the north up to 20 mph on Wednesday. Expect sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Thanksgiving

We’ll start the day clear and cool, and skies will be sunny throughout the day. Really, we have no weather concerns, with light winds expected and highs generally in the upper 60s. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 50 degrees, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The onshore flow resumes on Friday, and we are going to enter a period of mostly cloudy skies and increased rain chances by Saturday morning. High temperatures through Sunday should be in the low- to mid-70s, with modestly increasing humidity levels. Overall I think the area will pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall on Saturday and Sunday. If you have outdoor plans we’ll keep a close eye on the forecast for you. At this point I think showers will be intermittent rather than wall-to-wall, but we don’t have a good handle on the details yet.

Next week

At some point, perhaps on Monday, a stronger front should push into the region. This is likely to bring some colder conditions, with lows perhaps down to around 40 degrees next week. It does appear as though the first week of December, which is the first week of winter as well, will probably feel decidedly winter-like in Houston. But for now the forecast is still a bit uncertain.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the region’s ongoing, record-setting heat; our uncertain rain chances for this weekend, and an eventual cooldown next week. We also dive into the chatter about a ‘sudden stratospheric warming event,’ and what that might mean for Texas.

What is a stratospheric warming event, anyway?

In recent days there has been buzz about a sudden warming in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, about 5 to 25 miles above the surface, above the poles. This is the stratosphere, where the atmosphere is very thin. It lies above the troposphere, where we live, and most of our weather patterns develop. However, when there is a significant warming of the stratosphere over the poles it can influence conditions lower in the atmosphere. Such is the case with a “sudden stratospheric warming event.”

The first thing to understand is that that such events are poorly understood, both in terms of why they occur, and what their impacts are. However this stratospheric warming does, at times, lead to a weakening of the polar vortex that bottles up colder air at the poles of the planet. And it is possible that the present stratospheric warming event will weaken the polar vortex at the North Pole, and send some of this colder air shooting down into the Northern Hemisphere in about 10 days to two weeks.

Some of our AI modeling guidance suggests this will happen over North America. However, it is equally plausible at this point that the colder air will be released into Europe or Asia. For example, in the AI version of the European model we see the most significantly colder air pushed into Russia, with a lesser helping slipping down into the United States. In this scenario it would bring near-freezing temperatures to the Houston area during the early days of December. However this is just one outcome, and we would strongly caution wariness about such long-range forecasts.

Thursday

Ok, after our brief tour of global and upper atmospheric weather, let us return to our focus on Houston. It may not be stratospheric, but the city tied its record high of 85 degrees on Wednesday (previously set in 1985). Today’s record high is 84 degrees, and we probably will tie this record today as well, if not beat it. Conditions will remain very humid, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. This afternoon will be windier, with gusts as high as 20 mph, from the south. There will be a slight chance of rain today and tonight, perhaps 10 or 20 percent. Any showers that develop will pass quickly. Lows will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

This will be another warm day, with temperatures in the mid-80s. A front will sag toward the area, and this will increase shower and (possibly) thunderstorm chances. However I must say that as we have gotten into the territory of higher resolution models they have really backed off on the potential for precipitation. I still think there’s a 50 percent chance of rain on Friday and Friday night, but the overall rain totals will be on the lower side, with most areas probably picking up less than one-half inch through Saturday. Lows Friday night will remain warm, likely in the upper 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weak front is going to move into Houston and stall out. This will have some interesting and unpredictable effects on our weather this weekend. It’s likely that some areas inland of Interstate 10 will see some drier and briefly cooler air, with perhaps the maximum extent of this nose of drier air occurring on Saturday night into Sunday morning. The presence of the stalled front will also mean that the region continues to see a decent chance of showers on Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well. These will not be wall to wall showers by any means, but should mostly be brief. However we can’t rule out a few thunderstorms. Anyway, my guess for temperatures this weekend is low 80s, with partly sunny skies. Some inland areas may drop into the lower 60s on Saturday night as the front reaches its furthest extent.

Next week

The ‘front’ should lift back north on Sunday only to be followed by a second front that looks to be stronger. This will bring a healthy chance of rain on Monday and Monday night. By Tuesday or Wednesday we should see an influx of cooler and drier air. My prediction for Thanksgiving Day remains for morning temperatures in the lower 50s, with highs in the upper 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Lows will bottom out on Friday and Saturday, probably. Anyway, it should feel more like late November in Houston, finally. Precise details to come.

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In brief: In today’s post we discuss the ongoing, record heat Houston is experiencing this month. We also look ahead to increased rain chances by Thursday night, and a significant pattern change next week for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Record heat update

Houston’s official high temperature on Tuesday was 86 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, breaking the previous record high of 85 degrees, set in 1948. The record high for today is 85 degrees (set in 1985). It’s going to be a close run, and my guess is that the city will tie the previous record. As for Thursday and Friday, the daily record highs are both 84 degrees. I suspect we will be close on both days, or tie the mark. Our flirtation with record highs should end Saturday, although we will remain anomalously warm into the weekend.

Wednesday

Due to light winds and high dewpoints (in line with low temperatures) we are seeing some fairly dense fog across the region this morning. You’ll want to take a little extra time in getting to work or school. This should clear out by around 9 am. Unlikely previous sunny days, however, we are likely to see partly to mostly cloudy skies. This should limit high temperatures to the low- to mid-80s. It is going to feel rather humid, however, as dewpoints in the 70s are very sticky for November. We also are likely to see some isolated to scattered rain showers later today, but overall chances are probably only on the order of 20 percent. Lows tonight will be muggy again, likely dropping only to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Thursday

This day will be a lot like Wednesday, albeit with a couple of differences later on. For one, the winds from the southeast should be a little more pronounced. They may gust up to 20 mph during the afternoon hours. And by Thursday night an approaching (and alas, dying) front will bring an increased chance of showers into the greater Houston region. I still expect these to be fairly scattered in nature, but we could see a few thunderstorms by early Friday morning.

Friday

This will be another mostly cloudy, humid day, likely with highs in the low 80s. The real question for the forecast is the extent of showers and thunderstorms. We’ll have plenty of atmospheric moisture, but it remains to be seen how far the front pushes into Houston, and how much is perturbs the atmosphere. For now I think we have about a 50 percent chance of showers. Note that the rain accumulation map shown below is for totals through next Tuesday, so don’t expect this much on Friday. Most of us probably will pick up 0.25 to 0.75 inch through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday

Over the weekend I think we’ll see the front stall over Houston and then, eventually, I do believe we probably will see some slightly cooler and drier air ooze into the region. So what does that mean for conditions locally? I expect highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees on both days, but by Sunday morning we might see lows in Houston in the 60 to 65 degree range. This is not cold by any stretch, but it would be cooler than we have been experiencing. As for rain chances, I’ll ballpark a 30 percent chance for both days, with overall modest accumulations. In short, if you have outdoor activities, you should be prepared for a brief shower (but not expectant).

Thanksgiving week cooldown

Another, stronger system is expected to approach the area on Sunday night or Monday of next week. This should set the stage for rainier weather on Sunday night into Tuesday morning, and the gradual influx of cooler and drier air. By Tuesday or Wednesday highs should be in the 70s, with nights in the 50s. Last week I predicted a high temperature of 68 degrees on Thanksgiving Day itself, and I think that’s still a reasonable expectation.

It’s looking like the latter half of next week, particularly Friday and Saturday mornings, will be on the chilly side, with lows possibly in the 40s. Our confidence in this Thanksgiving week cooldown is now pretty high. As for rain chances, I think they’ll remain elevated through Monday night or Tuesday, after which we should see clearing skies at least through Thanksgiving.

So all in all, after an exceedingly warm mid-November, it does appear as though the weather for Thanksgiving in Houston will feel quite a bit more festive.

Fundraiser

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In brief: There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but we can be confident of unseasonable heat through Thursday, and then the likelihood of some showers and thunderstorms on Thursday evening into Friday as a weak front approaches Houston. After that? Well, we’ll see.

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Overall pattern

Despite a fair amount of cloud cover, Houston’s high temperature reached 84 degrees on Tuesday, falling just short of setting a record high for the day. With persistent high pressure holding on for a little while longer I expect today and Wednesday to be the warmest days of the week, and we almost certainly will break the city’s record high temperature for today, Nov. 18, which is 84 degrees. Wednesday (85 degrees) is also in play.

Later this week, by Friday, a weak front is going to sag into the area. As a result of this we’ll see healthy rain chances beginning on Thursday, and these may persist into the weekend. We also will probably see some slightly cooler and drier air, but our region will remain unseasonably warm into next week. Most of our model guidance is still pointing to a more significant cooldown by around Thanksgiving, or shortly after.

Tuesday

We are seeing a bit of patchy fog across the area, and this is not surprising because temperatures are in the upper 60s with dewpoints to match. So yeah, it’s pretty sticky. Highs are going up into the mid-80s for most of Houston, with some upper 80s possible west and north of the city. It’s not even gonna be a dry heat. Lows tonight will be similarly sultry, with another chance of patchy fog.

Wednesday

Expect another warm and humid day, albeit with more clouds. This may limit highs to the mid-80s for much of the region. Dewpoints in the 70s will certainly be sticky. As we start to see the atmosphere become a little more turbulent some slight rain chances, perhaps on the order of 10 to 20 percent, will enter the forecast. Lows on Wednesday night will, again, be quite warm.

Thursday

As a front advances into central Texas we’ll start to see increasing rain chances on Thursday, although they likely won’t pick up until the afternoon hours, and odds will be best Thursday night into Friday morning as the front moves in the Houston region. Highs on Thursday will likely be in the low- to mid-80s.

So what will the front bring? I’m afraid I can’t offer a whole lot of clarity at this point. I do think we’ll see a line of showers and thunderstorms, but I’m not super concerned about severe weather. Can we rule it out? Not yet, but again the overall dynamics are not super favorable for strong storms. In terms of rainfall I expect most of the area to pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches, but there is a risk for higher accumulations.

Friday

You would expect a cold front in November to bring some significantly colder air, wouldn’t you? Well, in this case you’d be wrong. Highs on Friday are still likely to be in the lower 80s. I think we’ll also see some lingering showers throughout the day, call it a 50 percent chance of rain. Eventually I think we probably will see some drier air filtering in to the region, but I’m not at all convinced how much we’ll see. So the forecast from this point on is pretty uncertain. But for now let’s call for lows on Friday night to be in the lower 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Both of these days probably will bring partly sunny skies, with highs in the upper 70s—or thereabouts. Saturday and Sunday will each have a modest chance of rain, perhaps 20 to 40 percent. Lows likely will be somewhere in the range of the upper 50s to lower 60s, but again this depends on the extent of the front. I could see a scenario in which lows only get to the upper 60s.

Next week

The first half of next week will probably see highs somewhere in the 70s and lows somewhere in the 50s or 60s, with decent daily rain chances (50 percent, maybe?). Much of our guidance is still pointing toward a more significant cooldown by around Thanksgiving, but whether that means lows in the 40s or 50s is not yet clear.

All in all this forecast has been pretty unhelpful, I realize. But the fact of the matter is that our best models have been waffling around some, and whether Friday’s front stalls over Houston, or offshore, is going to matter a lot to our weather for this weekend and beyond. I hope to provide you with more clarity in tomorrow’s forecast.

Fundraiser

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