Eric Berger

In brief: Heat records are continuing to fall across the region as Houston (and much of Texas) falls under the sway of high pressure. In today’s post we explain just how abnormal this is for May, and look ahead to a hot weekend. There is a modest chance of some relief next week.

Heat records fall

As expected, the city of Houston broke its high temperature record on Wednesday. The new mark of 96 degrees surpasses the old record of 93 degrees, set back in 2018. The local office of the National Weather Service also provided some additional nuggets of information to put this May heat wave into context:

• The average date of the city’s first 95-degree day is June 13, this year we did it on May 13
• Before this year, the last time Houston was this hot, this early in May was 1967 (96 on May 8)
• This year’s mark of 95 on May 13 is the fifth earliest we’ve been that hot it in a calendar year

In addition, we are likely to tie or exceed the city’s record high temperature today (94 degrees, set in 2018) and possibly on Friday (94 degrees, 2022) although by then we might see a very slight moderation in temperatures.

Thursday

If you’ve stepped outside during the last couple days, you have a pretty good idea of what to expect for Thursday. Partly cloudy skies this morning will give way to a sunny afternoon, with high temperatures generally in the mid-90s in Houston, with upper 90s possible further inland, and slightly cooler highs closer to the coast. Southerly winds will, again, be gusty from the south at up to 25 mph. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Not much changes this weekend, when most of the area should see highs in the low- to mid-90s. There may be some variance in cloud cover, with a few more clouds on Friday and Sunday, but in general I still expect there to be a fair amount of sunshine during the daytime hours. We can expect that persistent southerly breeze through the weekend, with gusts peaking during the afternoon hours. Nights remain the same, warm and muggy. Rain chances are close to, but not quite zero.

Next week

The first half of next week starts out warm, essentially a continuation of this week’s weather. However much of our model guidance is now hinting at a weak front approaching, and possibly pushing into the area by mid-week. This certainly is no guarantee, and its impact should be limited. But at least it may spark some showers, and give us a bit of drier air. We’ll just have to see how the forecast evolves over the next few days.

In brief: After Houston set heat records on Tuesday, we should see more of the same today and Thursday. The overall pattern moderates slightly this weekend, but we are looking at mostly sunny and hot weather at least into next week.

Record watch

Houston broke its high temperature record on Tuesday, with the mercury reaching 95 degrees. This topped the record of 94 degrees, set in 1907. The city will almost certainly break high temperature records today (93 degrees, set in 2018) and on Thursday (94 degrees, 2018). We then will come close through the weekend, and my tie or break additional records.

This is not particularly where one wants to be in the middle of May, with at least four months of summer ahead. But here we are. Matt and I are working on a summer preview, which we will publish in a couple of days. I don’t want to spoil anything, but I don’t think there will be any surprises. This high pressure pattern currently in place, known as an Omega block, can be fairly persistent. And seeing one at this time of year is not a good sign.

Wednesday and Thursday

The setup favors maximum heating today and Thursday, so we can expect the urban core of Houston to hit at least the mid-90s. Areas north and west of the city will be hotter, and we can’t entirely rule out a few isolated readings of 100 degrees. Areas closer to the coast should be a bit cooler, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Conditions will be breezy, with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph, and gusts up to 25 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny during the daytime, with some clouds building in during the evenings and overnight. Lows will only drop into the mid- or upper-70s, so it will definitely feel muggy outside.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Daily high temperatures may back off a couple of degrees this weekend, but it is still going to be sizzling for mid-May, feeling more like late June or July out there. It’s also worth noting that we are about one month away from the Sun reaching its highest point in the sky, so your skin will burn quickly. Please take precautions for prolonged Sun exposure. And we are going to see a lot of sunshine this weekend, with rain chances hovering around zero.

Next week

When we get in pressure patterns like this, it becomes a waiting game to see when it will break. At this point, I think the earliest likelihood of this is next Wednesday or Thursday, when rain chances and somewhat more moderate temperatures may return. But there certainly are no guarantees.

In brief: Spring effectively ended on Monday after two lovely weekends in a row. But that’s all over now as summer has arrived in Houston. Expect hot and sunny weather to prevail for at least the next week, and probably beyond.

An almost summer-like setup

High pressure has begun to build over the region, and this will continue to intensify over the next few days. This means sinking (rather than rising) air, and mostly sunny days. In addition to this we are seeing a southwesterly flow in the atmosphere, bringing warm air into the region. This is a classic setup for hot temperatures, and although it is just May this is the pattern we are going to experience for at least the next week, if not beyond. In my opinion the 90s was an excellent decade, I would argue the best decade, but I’m not sure its the temperatures I want to feel in May. But here we are.

Tuesday

As a result of this pattern we can expect mostly sunny skies today, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s across the city (the coast may be slightly cooler). Southerly winds will be gusty this afternoon, up to 20 or possibly even 25 mph. And we can more or less expect the same southerly winds, peaking during the afternoon, for the next week. Low temperatures tonight will unlikely fall much below 75 degrees. Oh, and there will be humidity. Plenty of it. Rain chances are near zero.

Wednesday through Sunday

The above pattern will more or less persist through the weekend. I think temperatures will peak on Wednesday, with many locations possibly reaching the upper 90s, but we should come down a couple of degrees by the weekend. But this is splitting hairs, really, We are looking at sunny and hot weather during the daytime, and partly cloudy and muggy nights. If you’re heading to central Texas, the heat will be scorching there. Austin is expected to smash daily high temperature records by as much as 10 degrees, with a high approaching 107 degrees on Wednesday.

Next week

At this time I don’t expect much change at least for the first half of next week. Highs will likely remain in the 90s. We may start to see some spotty showers as the upper air pattern changes a bit, but once we get into these hot and rain-free patterns, long-time residents will know they can become difficult to break.

In brief: The calendar reads May 12, but although June remains several weeks away today is the final day of spring for this year. Beginning tomorrow summer arrives in Houston and it does not appear likely to relinquish its grip. The region faces hot and sunny weather for awhile.

The end of spring

Looking back with hindsight, we might say that spring began on February 26 in Houston this year, a day when the high temperature reached 82 degrees. From that point forward, the city would not have any more daily highs below 69 degrees. And all things considered, it has been a rather warm spring, with both March and April recording average temperatures more than 4 degrees above normal. However, May so far has been temperate with near normal highs and lows, and a pair of pretty spectacular spring-like weekends. For those dreading the onset of summer it has been mighty fine. Sunday evening, with sporadic sunshine and dry air, was just an incredibly fine time to be outside.

But all good things must come to an end. And we can say with high confidence that spring will end today. Consider this morning the final hurrah. It sure may not feel like it outside right now, with much of the area dropping into the upper 50s. Indeed, it feels almost chilly outside. But believe me, this is it. The high today will be fine, in the mid-80s for most locations. But tonight will be warmer and more humid, and then by Tuesday we’re off to the races with a high temperature likely reaching the lower 90s. Maybe we will get a final, weak front 8-10 days from now, but it’s not something I’d bet on.

Monday

Much of the Houston region has fallen into the upper 50s or lower 60s this morning, and it feels positively spring like. Winds are generally calm this morning, and may yet come from the northwest for a few more hours today. This will help hold dewpoints in the 50s for much of today, helping keep humidity levels low through this afternoon and early evening. With clear skies high temperatures will likely reach the mid-80s. By tonight we will fall into a much more southeasterly flow, allowing for humidity levels to rise. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s.

Tuesday

Southerly winds will become much more noticeable on Tuesday, with gusts up to 25 mph or perhaps even a bit higher. With this southerly flow skies will be mostly sunny, and high temperatures will reach at least the lower 90s. Tuesday night will be warm, with lows dropping only into the mid-70s.

Wednesday through Sunday

High pressure takes control, and we are going to see a hot week. Look for partly to mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the mid-90s, and mostly cloudy nights with lows in the upper 70s. Some inland locations will get into the upper 90s, with Wednesday likely to be the hottest day of the week. Rain chances will be virtually non-existent. With dewpoints around 70 degrees, the humidity will feel summer-like. From day to day there will be very little change in the weather, but there might be a very slight downturn in temperatures by the weekend.

Next week

The uncharacteristically hot pattern will persist into next week before some kind of front slides into the state. Whether it makes it all the way to Houston remains to be seen. But that will bring our best chance of rain for the next 10 days.