Eric Berger

In brief: Houston faces the slight possibility of some thunderstorms as a cold front pushes into Houston this afternoon, with drier air following. A stronger push of cold air on Wednesday will bring the coldest night of the season for most locations, making it feel more seasonal as we get closer to the holidays.

November will feel more like November soon

For mid-November it is an incredibly warm morning, with temperatures generally in the mid- to upper-70s. We are running about 25 degrees above normal for this time of year for morning lows. And if you’re thinking, golly, I’d like it to be feel a little bit more like the holiday season, you’re in luck as a front will arrive today. A push of colder air on Wednesday will make things downright chilly during the second half of the week. Also, please don’t forget that we’re in the midst of our annual fundraiser, during which your support keeps Space City Weather going all year long. You can find more information here.

Monday

Houston will see scattered, mostly light showers this morning in advance of a front moving in from the west. Highs will reach around 80 degrees, or a bit above. A line of storms should push into western areas of Houston, including Katy, by around 2 to 4 pm. At this time it looks like this line of showers will be falling apart as it pushes into Houston during the next hour or two, but I’m not ready to entirely rule out some stronger thunderstorms and the possibility of damaging winds. Still, the overall threat from this frontal passage appears to be pretty low. The showers will be clear of the area by around sunset or shortly after, with somewhat drier air pushing in. Lows tonight will drop to around 60 degrees.

Tuesday

This will be a sunny day, with moderately drier air and light winds. Most areas should see highs in the upper 70s. Lows will drop into the 50s on Tuesday night, but the more noticeable trend will be stronger winds after midnight, from the northwest. This will herald the arrival of a secondary push of colder and drier air.

Wednesday

Said winds will peak during the early morning hours on Wednesday, gusting up to 25 mph or higher before relaxing during the afternoon or evening hours. Skies will remain sunny throughout. Lows on Wednesday night will generally drop into the 40s in Houston, and this should be the coldest night of the week.

Thursday and Friday

These will be pleasant and sunny days, with highs of around 70 degrees, and lows around 50 degrees with cooler conditions in outlying areas. Humidity will be low.

Saturday and Sunday

The sunshine party continues this weekend, and there are zero concerns for any outdoor activities you may have planned. Humidity will be on the upswing, but still quite a bit lower than is normal in Houston. Look for highs in the mid-70s on Saturday, and about 80 degrees on Sunday. By Sunday night lows will only be dropping into the 60s.

Next week

We’ll start out warm next week, but at some point a cold front should arrive. The timing for this front is critical, of course, with Thanksgiving on the horizon next Thursday, and the possibility of some rainfall with the front. In tomorrow’s post I will dig a bit deeper into the forecast for Thanksgiving Day in Houston, when hopefully there will be a little more clarity.

In brief: I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend in Houston, and we’re sorry to interrupt. But I wanted to give readers a heads up about the intermittent rain chances our region will face over the next 36 hours or so. We’re watching the potential for some minor street flooding today, and strong thunderstorms Monday.

The pattern for the next two days will be unsettled due to an advancing front that is running into very warm air over the Gulf of Mexico with plenty of moisture at hand. For the most part, the rainfall today and Monday will not be too disruptive. However, the atmospheric conditions are such that we could see some inclement weather, including the possibility of some strong winds on Monday.

Sunday

As of 8:30 am this morning, there is a line of showers running almost due north from Alvin and Pearland to Kingwood and Cleveland. We expect to see this kind of training pattern pattern today whereby some locations pick up in excess of 1 or 2 inches of rainfall under these bands, and most of the rest of the area only sees light rain. It’s possible there could be some minor street flooding where these bands establish themselves. Most of our guidance indicates significantly less activity over night, so showers should be on the wane by this evening. Highs today will reach the lower 80s for most locations.

Monday

On Monday the front itself will push into Houston, and we should see a line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. The timing is still a bit uncertain, but I’d expect the line to coalesce to the west of Houston by around noon, and push through during the afternoon hours. It should reach the coast by around sunset give or take an hour or two. This line will be moving fast enough that I don’t expect any major flooding problems, but for some areas there will be a period when it passes when thunderstorms are a bit gnarly. There is also the potential for some damaging winds, but the chances for tornadoes and hail are quite low. The rains will end quickly behind the front as drier air filters in.

Next week

Skies will clear out by Monday night, and we’ll see ample sunshine through next weekend. A shot of colder air arrives on Wednesday, and we should see a couple of nights in the 40s, which will be our coldest weather of the season. Look for full details on all of this in our regular post on Monday morning.

Fundraiser

I just wanted to mention that our annual fundraiser is ongoing for two more weeks. Your support is critical to the operation of the website, and all we do here at Space City Weather. More information on how to donate or buy merchandise can be found here.

In brief: Today’s post discusses the strong cold front in the cards less than a week from today, as well as what to expect before then. We also take a peek at the tropics, where a major hurricane could form in the Caribbean. It’s no threat to Texas, but even so, it’s mid-November. And finally, we’re launching our annual fundraiser. Buy merch! Support us!

Launch of annual fundraiser

This is a big morning for us, as we’re launching our annual fundraiser. I don’t like to ask for money, but it costs a lot to operate a website; develop, update, and support an app; and pay for all of our other activities. And we don’t do this often, just for a few weeks in November each year. This is your opportunity to directly support our hard work, and efforts to provide accurate information, without hype, to the greater Houston region. If you don’t have extra money, please do not feel pressure to give. But if you can help, we’d greatly appreciate it. You’re ensuring our work is freely available to all.

Click here to find how to donate or purchase items to support Space City Weather.

Wednesday

Most of Houston has fallen into the upper 50s or lower 60s this morning. With moderate humidity levels, we will see highs push into the low- to mid-80s this afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny, with light westerly winds. By this evening we’ll see the arrival of a cool front that will usher in drier air from the northwest. No rain is expected with the front. This will help low temperatures drop into the 50s overnight.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of fine, sunny days with high temperatures in the low- to mid-70s, and sunny skies. With dewpoints in the 40s, it really will not feel humid at all. Lows will bottom out on Thursday night, with temperatures dropping into the upper 40s for outlying areas, and lower 50s in central Houston by Friday morning—so pretty chilly. Friday night is a bit warmer, but temperatures should still drop well into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

As the onshore flow resumes we’ll see a few clouds on Saturday, and partly cloudy skies on Sunday. Highs for the first half of the weekend will reach the upper 70s, and top out at about 80 degrees by Sunday. Humidity levels will be on the rise, but not oppressively so. There will still be a bit of a chill in the air on Saturday night, but it will be long gone by Sunday night. A few light showers will be possible by Sunday evening, but I think rain will hold off for the most part until early Monday.

Next week

Monday and Monday night will be warm and muggy, with a pretty good chance of light showers. (Don’t expect much in the way of accumulations beyond a few tenths of an inch of rain). Some time on Tuesday, most likely, a fairly strong fronts will push into Houston. It’s still too early to have details on the precise timing, but all available evidence points to a fairly robust front with a strong northerly flow behind it.

It would not shock me to see a few nights in the 40s during the second half of next week, with daytime highs in the 60s. This really will be sweater weather, and our first real indication this season that winter is around the corner. As a bonus, it seems unlikely that we’re going to bounce back up into the 80s a few days after the front. The overall pattern looks to remain cooler, and more seasonable.

Tropics

I want to be clear: the tropical system developing in the Caribbean Sea is no threat to Texas whatsoever. However it appears increasingly likely that a (relatively rare) November hurricane will develop in the Caribbean Sea this weekend, which is likely to bring significant rainfall to parts of Central America. Much of our modeling guidance suggests it will become a major hurricane.

Long term this storm could move into the southern Gulf of Mexico before perhaps turning toward Florida in several days—although there’s plenty of uncertainty about what happens next week. We have a lot of time to watch it, and that’s just what we’re doing on The Eyewall.

In brief: Today’s update discusses a decent front in the cards for Wednesday which will bring a nice cooldown, and then looks at a warmer setup for this weekend. Overall, things look pretty calm. We also talk about Matt’s new job.

A few words on Matt’s new job

In addition to working on Space City Weather, both Matt and I have day jobs. I write about space for Ars Technica, and for the last decade Matt has been a meteorologist for Cheniere Energy. On Monday, Matt announced that he was changing jobs, and we wanted to explain what the change means for Space City Weather. The short version is, nothing.

The longer version is that Matt is starting a new position as Manager of Meteorology at CenterPoint Energy. We see this is as a win-win for readers. Why? Because Matt is still going to be free to do all of this regular forecasting for Space City Weather and The Eyewall. CenterPoint recognizes that these sites are an important part of Matt’s life, and this was a condition of his taking the job. Moreover CenterPoint (and by extension, the greater Houston area) will benefit from his expertise. Basically, better forecasting should mean that CenterPoint is better prepared for inclement weather events.

Nothing changes here. Space City Weather has been sponsored exclusively by Reliant for more than seven years now, and that partnership will continue. As always, Reliant has a completely hands-off policy when it comes to editorial content here. (They’ve been tremendous about that). And Matt’s position at CenterPoint will not influence the site’s coverage during severe weather and power outages. Anyway, we just wanted to be transparent with our readers. I have only one real editor on this site, and I’m married to her.

Finally, we both want to thank Cheniere for their support of Matt’s work with the sites during his time there.

Tuesday

It’s a cooler morning, with most of the area in the upper 50s to lower 60s thanks to a northerly flow. Today will be sunny and pleasant, with high temperatures of about 80 degrees, and lower humidity. Winds will generally be light, from the northeast. Low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight, with most of the area dropping into the lower 60s.

Wednesday

As the onshore flow picks up, we’ll see a slightly warmer day with a tinge more humidity. Expect highs in the low- to mid-80s, with mostly sunny skies. A front will arrive on Wednesday afternoon, but I don’t think there will be enough moisture in the atmosphere to support more than very isolated showers. Lows drop to around 60 degrees overnight as the front pushes in.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work will feel fine and fall-like, with sunny skies and high temperatures generally in the mid-70s. Drier air will knock humidity away. Both nights should get into the 50s in Houston, with some inland areas falling into the upper 40s on Friday morning. Skies will be clear day and night.

Saturday and Sunday

The onshore flow will be back for the weekend, which means the return of some humidity, and probably at least some partly cloudy skies. Highs both days will reach about 80 degrees, or perhaps a tick higher, with mild nights in the 60s. Rain chances are virtually zero on Saturday, and perhaps 10 to 20 percent on Sunday when there is more moisture in the atmosphere to work with.

Next week

The early part of next week will see continued warmer weather, with highs generally in the low-80s, along with a 20 or 30 percent chance of daily showers. A significant pattern change looks to be in the cards by mid-week, however, when a stronger fall front arrives with possibly some sticking power. We’ll discuss this more tomorrow, when we should have more confidence in the forecast. But I’m hopeful.