Houston so far today has missed out on heavy rain as the showers have developed mostly to our west and north. Here’s a look at rainfall totals, through 11 a.m. CT, for the last 24 hours.

Well the rain totals so far sure have been underwhelming. Personally, I blame Matt. I go to Seattle for a couple of days and everyone starts busting forecasts around here. (Kidding! Matt’s great. Rain events like this are pretty notorious to try and forecast, in terms of pinpointing the heaviest rain, even though conditions really seemed to line up for this one last night). Anyway, let’s discuss what may be ahead.
TODAY
We’re still going to see intermittent periods of heavy rain, even though most of the action so far has been to the north of the Houston metro area. A flash flood watch remains in effect for the entire metro area through 6 p.m. and there’s certainly the potential for an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain between now and Thursday morning. But after this morning’s bust I am in no way calling definitively for that.

As expected, the National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch for the greater Houston metro area from noon Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon.

The National Weather Service forecasts rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches for most areas, with isolated totals of up to 10 to 12 inches possible. The main time of concern remains Wednesday morning.
After taking a look at some the latest model guidance here’s an updated look at what to expect on Tuesday and Wednesday, which likely will be the worst times for storm activity in the greater Houston metro area.
TUESDAY
Right now I anticipate light to moderate rainfall on Tuesday afternoon, with most areas seeing between 0 and 1 inch of rain. There should not be too much trouble with the commute home on Tuesday evening. At some point between 6 p.m. and midnight we’ll see an increase in rain showers. Here’s why:
