Eric Berger

Summary: We’ll see mild weather today before a coastal low brings a modest amount of rain on Friday and Friday night. This weekend looks chilly, with Saturday feeling especially brisk as a front blows in. Most of next week looks warm and fairly sunny, and as discussed below this probably heralds the beginning of spring-like weather for our region.

Last of the freezes?

Before jumping in to the forecast, I want to spare a word for the gardeners. Although I don’t anticipate a freeze in Houston on Sunday morning, a few outlying areas in Montgomery County and the other usual suspects may experience a light freeze this weekend. And after that? After that the odds of another freeze this winter are fairly low.

For areas south of Interstate 10, we are already past the “average” date of the region’s last freeze, and we’re fast approaching that date for areas along and north of Interstate 10. For areas further inland, such as Conroe, the typical date of the last freeze comes in late February. Wild things can happen, of course. Houston’s latest ever recorded freeze came on April 10, 1973. But after this weekend the rest of February looks to be fairly warm, and that gets us into March. So I’m reasonably confident we’re done with freezes this year. However, if you want an iron-clad guarantee I cannot give that.

Thursday

We’re starting today with temperatures of about 60 degrees, and we’re going to experience the warmest day of the week as highs nudge into the low- to mid-70s. Skies will be mostly cloudy, and winds light from the southeast, at 5 mph or so. Some very light and misty showers will be possible this evening, but in all likelihood they will hold off until the overnight hours. Lows tonight will only drop into the low 60s.

Friday

As discussed for a few days now, a coastal low pressure system will bring increasing rain chances into the region early on Friday. It still looks as if the bulk of the heavier precipitation will remain offshore, so much of the Houston area is only going to see on-and-off, light-to-moderate rain showers. For areas south of Interstate 10 accumulations are likely to be a few tenths of an inch up to a full inch near the coast. Areas further inland will see less, and some places like The Woodlands may not see much, if any rainfall. When it’s not raining skies will be mostly cloudy, with highs in the 60s. A cold front will move into the Houston region after midnight, likely reaching the coast around sunset, plus or minus an hour or so. This should mostly bring an end to any lingering rain showers.

Saturday

This is going to be a cold and breezy day—one of the region’s last truly winter-like days if that’s your thing. After the front’s passage we’re going to see temperatures in the 50s, and possibly upper 40s, during the daytime. When you add on winds gusting up to 30 mph, it’s going to feel rather chilly outside. Skies may start to clear some during the afternoon or evening hours. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the upper 30s with slackening winds in Houston.

Sunday

This will be a fine, sunny day with high temperatures in the upper 50s. Lows will drop to around 40 degrees on Sunday night.

Next week

Most of next week looks warmer, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs on Monday will reach about 70 degrees, but after that we’re going to be in the upper 70s to perhaps 80 degrees for most of the week. Nights will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A weak front may arrive by next Friday or so to cool us down (slightly) for next weekend. Rain chances appear low for most of the week.

Summary: Houston will warm up for the next couple of days before a wet Friday is followed by colder weather this weekend. After we flirt with lows in the 30s on Sunday morning, however, temperatures will be on the upswing again. Does that mean the end of winter is at hand?

Is spring just ahead?

Just one week ago there was a lot of online chatter about another outbreak of the polar vortex bringing very cold weather to Houston. At the time we wrote about that a repeat of frigid weather was unlikely in Texas. Now, one week later we can definitively say it: Texas is not going to see another Arctic blast during the month of February.

In fact, after a flirtation with lows in the upper 30s this weekend, Houston may be done with very cold weather for this winter. Is that a guarantee? No. March can sometimes produce some winter surprises. But most likely we are about to move into a more spring-like pattern about one week from now. I’ll take a look at freeze possibilities for the rest of the season tomorrow, but they are fairly low at this point.

Wednesday

After a chilly start, conditions should warm nicely today, into the upper 60s. We should see mostly sunny skies through at least the morning hours before some clouds start to build this afternoon. Winds will be light, generally from the southeast. Lows tonight will be warmer under the influence of this southerly flow, and with clouds building in overnight. Expect temperatures to drop into the mid-50s in Houston.

Thursday

Skies will be clouded over on Thursday with light southeasterly winds. This will be a warmer and more humid day, with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Friday

This still looks like the day for widespread showers due to the presence of a coastal low pressure system and plenty of atmospheric moisture. The greater accumulations will be near the coast, with 1 to 3 inches possible in places like Matagorda Bay, 0.5 to 2 inches in Galveston, and lesser amounts further north. Rain will be possible starting early Friday morning throughout the day, evening, and overnight hours. This shouldn’t be a flooding issue, but it could be a nuisance for outdoor activities. Highs will be in the 60s.

Saturday

Saturday morning will be colder after a front blows in on Friday night, with cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 50s. It also looks quite breezy, with gusts above 30 mph. The good news is that any lingering showers should be ending as the Sun comes up or shortly after. By Saturday afternoon, with highs in the upper 50s, we could see partly sunny skies. Saturday night should be rather cold, with lows likely to drop to just below 40 degrees in Houston, and a bit colder further inland.

Sunday

This will be a fine winter day, with sunny skies and highs around 60 degrees. Winds look light. This may be some of the last really dry air we see this season. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the low 40s in Houston, probably.

Next week

Most of next week looks warmer, with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. There should be a fair amount of sunshine and, as of this point, not a whole lot of potential for rainfall. As I mentioned, it will feel a lot like spring.

Summary: Tuesday and Wednesday will bring some amazing weather to Houston before we cloud up and then see some showers on Friday. This weekend looks colder, with plenty of sunshine toward the second half. Next week should be mild.

We’re in that time of year when Houston’s weather swings from cold conditions to warmer and somewhat humid days, and then back again. It’s the in-between periods that I love most, those one or two days when we’re transitioning from the cold to the warm, when the sun is shining and the humidity not yet rebounded, that provides gorgeous weather. For this week today, and to a lesser extent Wednesday, are those days. If anyone can suggest a name for this terrific transition weather, I’d love to hear it.

Tuesday

With high pressure holding sway, skies will be sunny today. After our chilly start (in the low 40s for most) we’ll warm nicely into the mid-60s. Today has it all: sunshine, very light winds, and low humidity. We’ll start to see a light southeasterly wind tonight that will herald the beginnings of an onshore flow, but temperatures should again drop into the low- to mid-40s.

Wednesday

Valentine’s Day will be pretty nice as well for you and your sweetheart, with partly sunny skies for much of the day and highs in the upper 60s. Winds will still be pretty light, but perhaps blow at 10 mph from the south. We’ll start to see more cloud cover later in the afternoon or evening hours. Lows will drop into the 50s.

Thursday

This will be a warmer and mostly cloudy day, with light southerly winds and highs generally in the mid-70s. With dewpoints near 60 degrees, the air will feel a bit more muggy than it’s been. Lows will only drop to around 60 degrees on Thursday night.

Friday

This day is likely to produce widespread showers, especially the closer one lives to the coast. First of all, that southerly flow is going to help pump up atmospheric moisture levels. The we’ve got a coastal low pressure system that is going to be a rainmaker. For now, however, it looks as though the majority of that precipitation is going to fall offshore.

Still, most of Houston south of Interstate 10 is likely to see 0.5 to 1 inch of rain between late Thursday night and Saturday morning. The most likely time for showers is Friday afternoon. Further inland you can probably expect 0.5 inch or less, with some spots possibly not seeing any rain at all. I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of severe weather at this point. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-60s.

Saturday

A front will blow in on Friday night, and this should bring an end to shower activity by Saturday morning. The day with start out mostly cloudy, but we may see some clearing of skies during the afternoon hours. Highs will likely top out in the upper 50s with some fairly gusty northerly winds during the daytime. With clearing skies overnight, temperatures may fall into the upper-30s in Houston, but I think a freeze will remain just north of the metro area.

Sunday

This will be a sunny, fine day with highs in the upper 50s to 60 degrees, with light winds. Lows on Sunday night will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday night.

Next week

At this point most of next week looks warmer, with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Humidity levels will be up, but not oppressively so. Overall rain chances look low for much of the week.

Summary: After a warm weekend, winter has blown back into Houston overnight. We’ll be sunny and colder for a few days before a warming trend begins Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday and Friday night ahead of another front that should bring drier and cooler weather next weekend.

Monday

You’ll want a jacket this morning, with temperatures in the 40s across the metro area, and winds gusting up to 30 mph. Winds will remain gusty this morning, but should start to ease up later this afternoon and this evening. Skies will be sunny today, but with the influx of colder air highs will likely remain capped in the 50s. Tonight will bring the coldest temperatures of the week, with lows in the 30s for inland parts of the region, and 40s closer to the coast. With clear skies and light winds we’ll see ideal conditions for cooling.

Tuesday

After a chilly start, this will be a fine day with sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures in the mid-60s. Temperatures on Tuesday night will be a few degrees warmer, and as winds shift to come from the southeast, we’ll see the beginnings of an onshore flow overnight.

Wednesday

This will be another pleasant day, with temperatures in the mid- to upper 60s. I think skies will bring a mix of clouds and sunshine, with the likelihood of mostly cloudy skies by Wednesday evening. With a light southerly flow expect lows on Wednesday night to drop only into the 50s.

Thursday

Temperatures will push into the low 70s on Thursday, with mostly cloudy skies. It looks like rain chances will hold off until the overnight hours, at the earliest.

Friday

This should be the most dynamic weather day of the week. The combination of an increasingly moist atmosphere, low pressure over the Gulf, and an advancing front will pump up rain chances. In terms of accumulations, I expect most of the area to pick up between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain starting early Friday and running into Saturday morning. The closer to the coast you live live, the greater accumulations are likely to be. Highs, otherwise, will be in the upper 60s on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday

The aforementioned front will push into Houston during the overnight hours, and likely be off the coast by around sunrise on Saturday or shortly thereafter. Rain showers should end during the morning hours but clouds will linger. So expect a cool day, with highs perhaps around 60 degrees. Saturday night will be cold, with lows dropping to around 40 degrees in Houston, and with colder conditions for outlying areas likely. Sunday looks to be sunny, with highs around 60 degrees. Expect another chilly night.

Next week

I don’t have great confidence in conditions next week, but I’d bet on something like highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and partly sunny skies. After Friday’s rain chances things look dry for awhile.