In brief: Scattered to numerous storms will impact the Houston area once more today. Severe risks, while low are not zero. We’ll remain unsettled heading into the late week and weekend but hopefully at a less intense pace than we’ve started the week with. Hotter weather lurks on the horizon.
[UPDATE: We’re pulling the trigger on Stage 1 Flood Alert. See the details at the bottom of the post.]
Today
After things calmed down yesterday, they stayed calm, thankfully. We will not have that luxury today. Storms (non-severe) are already moving across Matagorda County and Wharton County this morning.

There are also a couple isolated storms just west of Downtown. Over the next few hours, the activity near Matagorda Bay will slide across Brazoria and Galveston Counties. Some of those storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds. Lightning and heavy rain are a given with these storms as well. Elsewhere, scattered storms will pop across the rest of the area today. While we don’t expect significant severe weather, we cannot rule out isolated severe storms. Gusty winds are the main concern today.

It’s possible we see an additional cluster of storms develop with daytime heating out near College Station and the Brazos Valley. Those could swing through in the evening hours. Again, the primary concern would be isolated gusty wind as that happens.
Also keep an eye out for heavy rainfall. These storms are putting down close to 2 inch per hour rainfall rates. This could cause some street flooding to crop up in spots. Nothing too, too serious but just be mindful in typically flood-prone spots. Temperatures will be held back in the 80s today.
Thursday through Sunday
We may venture back to a somewhat less widespread coverage of storm chances here, with more sea breeze driven daily thunderstorms. Those tend to be less intense but can produce locally heavy rainfall. So all days should see the potential for a little street flooding in isolated spots. Many places would end up without much rain. One or two storms could be strong.
That said, we will want to keep tabs on what happens out in western Texas. We’ll be in a northwest flow aloft, as winds 20,000 feet up move from northwest to southeast across Texas. If any sort of complexes of storms can develop out west, they could end up nearby eventually. Models don’t do a great job predicting those features more than 18-36 hours out, so there’s certainly a tinge of uncertainty in the forecast. So with all that in mind, we don’t currently expect widespread storms but we’ll be babysitting the situation through the week.
Temperatures look to top out in the upper-80s on days with rain and low-90s on days without. Morning lows should generally be in the 70s.
Next week
A return to drier, hotter weather seems likely next week. High pressure may try to anchor over the Southeast or Gulf, which would keep Southeast Texas at least at the periphery of hot weather, with temperatures likely starting the week in the low 90s and moving upward from there.
Mid-90s will probably return at some point. Stay tuned.
Update: Storms this morning are producing localized torrential downpours with rates of 2-4 inches per hour that will cause heavy ponding and some street flooding in spots. As as result, we’re pulling the trigger on a Stage 1 alert on our Flood Scale.

