Matt Lanza

In brief: Serious flooding is ongoing in Central Texas along the Guadalupe and San Saba Rivers after a foot of rain or more fell across parts of that area. Locally, another round of thunderstorms is likely this afternoon, followed by a fairly typical summer-like pattern this weekend and beyond.

Thursday & Thursday night storms

As noted yesterday morning by Eric, the forecast changed rather abruptly. And yesterday’s storms, while fairly quick movers, hit with some punch. Thankfully they did, as we saw instantaneous rain rates as high as 4 to 6 inches per hour in spots! Rainfall varied overall, with as much as 2 inches or a bit more in northeast Harris County and about a quarter-inch in western Harris County.

On a more serious note, parts of Hill County have seen some severe rain overnight. South-Central Kerr County is estimated to have received as much as nearly a foot of rainfall. This has led to flash flood emergencies there and along the Guadalupe River. The river at Hunt, TX is approaching 30 feet, beyond the 1987 flood event at that gage.

Downstream in Kerrville, they aren’t expected to hit the 37 feet of 1987, but it still looks to be a top 3 flood. Meanwhile, San Angelo saw around 8 inches of rain, with over 12 inches just north of the city. Additional rivers are expected to rise deep into flood stage, with major flooding possible in spots. If you have friends or family that headed out to the Guadalupe or San Saba Rivers, make sure they’re taking any warnings from local officials seriously. More rain is possible today, with some already occurring again this morning.

Today

For Houston, today should probably unfold somewhat similar to yesterday with showers likely to pop up across the region this afternoon. Rain could again be heavy.

Storms should keep moving today limiting flooding risk. Some gusty winds and frequent lightning will be possible as well. We do expect storms to settle down or dissipate in time for evening celebrations across the region.

Weekend

Additional scattered showers and storms are likely tomorrow, followed by a lesser chance on Sunday. Overall, if you can just manage to live with some passing showers for an hour or two, the weekend should be fine. We’ll keep watching in case anything should change on us again, however. Expect highs in the mid-90s and lows in the 70s.

Next week

It looks like a mostly typical summer week next week. I would expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, with highs in the 90s. There may be a skew toward slightly less afternoon storm coverage and hotter temps later in the week.

In brief: Another round of localized heavy rain, street flooding, and lightning will be possible this afternoon somewhere near or just northwest of Highway 59/I-69 in Houston. Slightly less coverage for Saturday, then more numerous showers and storms come at us Sunday and Monday before we dry out and heat up.

If you live inside the Beltway on the north and west side of Houston, you probably got walloped yesterday. Over 4 inches of rain was recorded at Ella and White Oak Bayou.

Rain totals north of 3 inches fell in a pretty broad area between The Villages and Garden Oaks. Many other locations saw 1 to 3 inches of rain. Outside the Beltway, it went quiet until you got up to about Kingwood (always, Kingwood) and down into Fort Bend County. Yesterday was just one of those days where boundary collisions ruled the day. A few storms popped up, steering winds were weak, and basically atmospheric bumper cars ensued until we exhausted the instability in the area.

Today

We don’t expect a carbon copy today, however I would not be shocked to see a generally similar setup play out across the area. We’re already seeing some downpours in Liberty and Chambers Counties this morning. As the morning goes on and the sea breeze starts entering the mix, migrating inland with peak instability, we’ll likely see storms fire up near Highway 59/I-69.

A few places could again see multi-inch per hour rain rates that could cause street flooding. We’re holding off on a Stage 1 flood alert today, but I will admit it’s a close call. Just use caution in any storms today, as you should in summer.

Weekend

I think things will ease up a bit on Saturday. There will be showers and isolated thunderstorms around. There may be locally heavy downpours for a short time in any given spot. But overall the intensity and coverage of storms may be lower tomorrow than it has been to close the week out.

Unfortunately, the same does not hold true for Sunday, which should see more numerous, if not widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. Storms could begin firing up as early as mid-morning and continue through the day, migrating generally north and west as the day progresses. Have an umbrella handy both days, but have a good indoor backup plan available on Sunday.

Temperatures should top out in the lower to mid-90s on Saturday and low-90s or even upper-80s on Sunday.

Monday

Monday looks like another active day with showers and storms popping with daytime heating. Look for low-90s and scattered PM storms.

Rest of next week

Tuesday begins a trend of diminishing rain chances. Expect more of isolated coverage of storms on Tuesday, a handful on Wednesday, and perhaps none at all by the end of the week. In response, temperatures are going to begin to pick up. We’ll have mid-90s Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a chance at upper-90s to close the week.

Recent rains and saturated soils may act to keep daytime highs from getting much past 97 or 98 degrees or so officially, but there may be a few parts of the area that threaten upper 90s to near 100 by next weekend. Stay tuned.

Tropics

A discerning eye will notice a new tropical area to watch on the National Hurricane Center site down in the Bay of Campeche. This has a very, very slight opportunity to develop over the next couple days.

The good news is that it will almost certainly scoot right into Mexico by Monday. This limits any significant development risk, and this is not a concern for the Texas coast. The next tropical area of interest may be something in the northeastern Gulf or off the Florida coast by next weekend. That too is expected to stay away from Texas and is mainly worth watching for Florida or the Southeast coast.

In brief: Mostly minimal shower and storm coverage this weekend in Houston will increase by a good bit next week. Additionally, we take a look at why this hurricane season has started quieter than most recent ones.

Hurricane season so far

The forecast is pretty straightforward today, and we’ll get into that below. First, today is June 20th, and to this point I don’t think we’ve said a word at Space City Weather about hurricanes or tropical storms. It’s a refreshing change of pace after recent seasons. In fact, the last year that we did not have a storm in the Atlantic before July 1st was back in 2014. It’s been a while.

Meanwhile, the Pacific has been churning out storms apace this season, with five so far. Of course, only one of them (Erick, which just made landfall yesterday) was a big storm. Still, the conditions to this point this hurricane season have strongly favored the Pacific. You can thank dust and wind shear in the Atlantic for one, but those things aren’t abnormal, even in recent Junes. So there has to be more at play here.

We often talk about the “background state” of the atmosphere. You have individual tropical waves and systems and such through the year, but the background state is important. Are the overarching global weather conditions favorable for development or unfavorable? So far this June, we’ve had the majority of rising air, or a “favorable” background state for tropical development sitting over Central America. Rising air is what helps thunderstorms to develop. Since tropical weather generally moves east to west across the planet, this has meant that most seedlings for development are being planted in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Sinking air sits over Africa and extends all the way across to the Caribbean islands. Sinking air tends to suppress cloud development and dry the air out a bit. By the time any waves can really get going, they more than likely end up over land or kicked into the Pacific.

Over the next couple weeks, this pattern is unlikely to change a whole heck of a lot, but we may start to see slightly more favorable conditions emerge over Africa or the far eastern Atlantic by early July. That said, there are no guarantees that actually means anything. Realistically, the next 7 to 10 days look calm and the 10-to-14-day period has no signs of meaningful change yet.

We do still expect an average to above average hurricane season; June’s activity has no real correlation to the rest of the season, so you can’t decipher any relationships. But when you can get a hassle-free month in hurricane season, you take it without complaints.

Bottom line: You still have time to prepare for hurricane season.

Today

We had a slightly higher coverage of showers yesterday than we did Wednesday, and today should be fairly similar. Most of us will stay dry, but some areas could see up to an inch of rain or so in a cooling downpour. We hit 95 yesterday officially, and we should make a run for that again today.

Weekend

The coverage of showers may actually decrease some this weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday carry something like a 15 to 20 percent chance of a shower. Doesn’t mean it won’t rain, but it does mean the odds aren’t high! Sunday probably carries a slight edge over Saturday in terms of higher shower coverage. Temperatures will be steady with low to mid 90s for highs and mid to upper 70s for lows away from the coast, with low 80s at the coast.

Next week

While this week was pretty quiet after Monday, next week should be a bit busier each day. We’ll probably carry 30 to 40 percent or even higher rain chances each afternoon, with pop up thunderstorms.

The culprit will actually be the high pressure system responsible for record heat that I’m sure you’ll hear about in the news across the Eastern U.S. As that anchors over the Appalachians, it will actually open the door to added Gulf moisture in Texas. Precipitable water (or how much moisture is available in the atmosphere) increases about 25 percent or more next week compared to today. That should help boost thunderstorm coverage each day.

The increased coverage of storms probably means we see more low-90s for highs and 70s for lows areawide next week.

In brief: Houston should have one more round of fairly widespread thunderstorms today, especially closer to the coast before things start to ease up closer to what’s typical for June. The relatively mild weather of this week will revert back to typical early summer fare heading into next week.

Today

After yesterday’s widespread rains, we get one more crack at the free car wash today. Things are starting off quiet this morning. That should change as the morning progresses. We’ll have a couple showers pop up along the coast over the next few hours. That will evolve into more numerous downpours and thunderstorms after 10 or 11 AM. This will be especially true along the coast and just inland, so Highway 59/I-69 is kind of our demarcation line today. South and east of there, higher rain risk, north and west lower rain risk.

A flood watch is in effect for coastal counties between Matagorda Bay and Louisiana today. These areas will be more susceptible to the heaviest rains. We will continue the Stage 1 flood alert as well for the rest of today. The Matagorda area was hardest hit yesterday, but today I would watch closer to Galveston and on the island for some healthy street flooding risks. These storms will be capable of dumping 2 to 4 inches in an hour.

So, storms become widespread at the coast after 10 or 11 AM and some additional more scattered activity spreads inland to the northwest from there. Rains should dissipate after sunset.

Saturday & Sunday

On Saturday, the trough that sits over the Arklatex today will move into the Mississippi Valley to our east. That should reduce the overall support for widespread thunderstorms like we’ve had since midweek.

What does this mean? Well, we should revert to more typical summertime weather. I would expect to see some showers or a couple thunderstorms develop each day from late morning through afternoon along the sea breeze as it slowly migrates inland from the Gulf. Many of us will see nothing at all, but a few will receive the often-welcome cooling downpour on Saturday or Sunday. Coverage may be a smidge higher on Sunday than Saturday. But anyone planning to partake in outdoor activities will probably only have to briefly dodge a shower, if anything at all.

It will warm back up though. We should reach the low-90s with a couple mid-90s here or there. Morning lows will be in the upper-70s.

Next week

High pressure over the Southwest will flatten out while a new area of high pressure builds west across the Gulf Coast toward Texas. We’ll probably keep Monday much like Sunday or Saturday, but Tuesday and Wednesday could see slightly increased rain chances before we probably shut off the sprinklers for a couple days later next week. Highs will generally remain in the lower-90s, close to normal for mid-June.