Matt Lanza

In brief: Drought conditions have begun to improve across Houston, and that should hopefully continue with more rain expected on Saturday and next week. It will also turn quite a bit cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with early spring type temperatures!

Let’s start with a drought update. The latest report dropped yesterday, and we saw notable improvement across the Houston area, as you’d expect after last weekend.

We should see additional improvement next week, assuming we get the forecast rain tomorrow.

Today

Watch for some patchy fog this morning in spots, but otherwise expect a mix of clouds and sun. We should push up into the mid-80s.

Saturday

Alright, so tomorrow is the tricky forecast day all around. A couple showers are possible in the morning, but we aren’t currently expecting too much in the way of rain through midday. Showers will become a bit more numerous in the afternoon hours across the area. A few thunderstorms are also possible. Here’s a 4 PM forecast radar from the HRRR model just to set the mood a little in terms of what things could look like tomorrow afternoon.

As the afternoon turns to evening, we should see more frequent periods of showers and rain across the area. The back edge of the rain will be slow to advance through Houston, probably not reaching the coast until Sunday morning. Generally speaking, we should see a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rainfall across the area. Some isolated spots will get more, and it’s conceivable that a couple spots see less too. Any areas seeing more rain may also see localized street flooding.

For the Ironman Triathlon, Eric covered things in depth yesterday. There’s no real change in expectations in terms of temperatures and rather unpleasant humidity. I am hopeful that most adverse weather will hold off til the evening hours in The Woodlands, but the reality is that we cannot entirely rule out some showers or even a thunderstorm through the afternoon. The race organizers will be plugged in and act accordingly. We wish everyone participating, the best of luck!!

Temperatures, as noted will be kind of humid. At some point in the 4 to 7 PM timeframe, there’s going to be a significant drop in temperatures from the 80s into the 70s and eventually 60s. We may drop all the way into the 50s by Sunday morning.

Sunday

Showers will end through the morning. We may not see complete clearing on Sunday, but I will hold out hope for some sunny breaks. Wind gusts will be up on Sunday, around 20 mph inland and near 30 mph at the coast. It will feel like early spring!

Monday and Tuesday

We will quickly lose that slightly more refreshing air mass and transition back to more typical mid to late spring type weather conditions with onshore flow and a return to a shower or storm chance later Monday and especially Tuesday. Temperatures will remain cool with highs only near 70 Monday and mid-70s Tuesday.

Rest of next week

We warm back into the 80s by Wednesday and Thursday. With that will come additional unsettled weather. Shower or storm chances will persist across the area. However, many spots will remain dry I would assume; the storm chances will be more isolated than scattered or widespread.

In brief: Heavy rain has led to a number of flood watches, warnings, and advisories near Houston today. Rain is expected to slowly wind down after sunset.

Apologies for the later than hoped for post. Eric and I have both been engaged in other obligations today.

So far today, some areas west of Houston have seen nearly 5 inches of rain, with a Harris County Flood Control gauge north of Pattison registering over 4.5 inches so far. If you’re traveling north or west of Downtown, just be advised there may be street flooding in spots.

A look at radar this evening shows torrential rain north of Kingwood, tracking north of Liberty. A second area of absolutely torrential rainfall is centered from just south of Spring through Jersey Village down to near Memorial City. Additional moderate to heavy rain continues to the west.

Over the next few hours, this rain is only going to creep east slowly. This almost certainly will not make it to the coast. So, yes, you’re shut out again down there. But across southern Montgomery, central Harris, and areas west of Harris County and northeast into Liberty County, periods of heavy rainfall will continue. The heaviest rain should begin to calm down after 7-8 PM, with showers continuing for a little while longer.

Bottom line: Heavy rain will continue for a little while longer, and street flooding is a good possibility. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow, but they don’t currently look to be as robust as today. Eric will update more on that for you in the morning.

In brief: Daily rain chances will remain for Houston over the next several days, but admittedly on most of those days it seems unlikely we’ll cash in. While there will be a couple opportunities for legitimate rain chances over the next 6 to 7 days, Central and West Texas may end up in a much better spot than Houston for now.

Side note: We wish the Artemis II crew a safe return, as they splash down this evening (just after 7 PM CT) off the coast of Southern California. The weather looks good.

We hear you, reader. We talk about rain chances more often than we actually seem to get them. It seems true. It feels true. And I don’t disagree. We’ve been in a shaky pattern for several months now where rain chances, especially out around days 3 to 7 look promising, only to disappoint when the bill comes due. Is it drought or a model bias? Both? I’m not totally sure. But I do know that fading the rain chances has worked more often than not lately.

Now, we did see just shy of an inch of rain yesterday near Eagle Lake at a CenterPoint gauge. But that’s way out there in Colorado County. Still, that helps (especially for farmers that are struggling with this constant battle of stress that’s been with us for a few growing seasons now). But for most of us in Houston seeking rain, it’s just been a frustrating go of it. Let’s walk through things based on what we know this morning.

Today

We will see at least isolated to scattered downpours across the area today. Many of you probably won’t see much rain, but some neighborhoods could pick up a quick inch or two. The HRRR model forecast below shows isolated pockets of heavier rain in between a lot of nothing. Don’t focus on the specific locations here, but that’s the general gist of what to expect.

Other than that, expect clouds, some sun, and highs in the lower 80s.

Saturday

Rain chances will probably favor Central Texas over East Texas on Saturday. Still, a few showers are possible west of Houston tomorrow. Highs will be a touch warmer, into the low or mid-80s.

Sunday

More substantial rain chances will creep closer on Sunday, but they may still remain primarily west of Houston. I would expect to see some sort of thunderstorm cluster or line of storms enter the Brazos Valley during the afternoon hours. However, the trajectory of a disturbance in the upper atmosphere and the general southwest to northeast movement of things across Texas this weekend may lead to most of the storm activity passing northwest and north of Houston. I would set my expectations low for Sunday in terms of rainfall, unless you live in College Station or perhaps Huntsville or Lake Livingston.

Those that do see rain could see hefty rain, however, as the atmosphere will be pretty juiced up this weekend. So if you hit a persistent area of rain, just be wary of some street flooding.

Monday

The pattern shifts a bit more eastward on Sunday night and Monday. We should again at least see a smattering of activity around the area, but I would once again set my expectations fairly low. Highs on Monday will be in the mid-80s with lows in the 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday

Houston will be caught between a building upper-level ridge in the Southeast that’s going to lead to some impressive, record warmth next week in the Eastern U.S. and a deepening trough in the West. These situations don’t typically lead to us seeing the rain we otherwise could, and it could be a situation where there are daily thunderstorms impacting West and Central Texas, while the Houston area gets the shaft. Obviously, this could change, but again, the theme today is to keep the expectations low. And maybe go wash your car. Yeah. That should do the trick.

Temperatures will remain well into the 80s next week.

In brief: Houston’s best chance at rain remains Saturday, where some parts of the area could see a stronger thunderstorm. Still, it will be a bit of an uneven distribution of rainfall, with some areas likely seeing little rain when all is said and done. Easter looks cool and dreary but overall, not very disruptive.

Pretty much as expected on Wednesday morning, most of the area was void of meaningful rainfall yesterday. So where did it rain? Go north.

From the Brazos Valley to just near Lake Conroe saw anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain, as did a small bullseye south of Lake Livingston and in Sam Houston National Forest. The 2.81″ of rain in College Station was a record for April 2nd and the wettest day of 2026 with the most rain measured there since October 25th of last year. Good news for that area. For us? Frustrating, but that’s how it goes. Are the odds better tomorrow? Let’s discuss.

Today

Today should see clouds, some sun, and a few mostly inconsequential showers around the region. A few places may see up to a half-inch in a steadier downpour but most of us will see minimal rainfall or nothing at all. Highs will be in the mid-80s.

Saturday

The front half of the day will probably much like Thursday and today across most of the area. We cannot rule out some passing showers, but primarily it will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, warm, and humid. A line of thunderstorms should begin developing near College Station in the early afternoon and drop south and east into the Houston area by late afternoon. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, and the area is highlighted in a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather tomorrow.

As the storms push toward Houston, we may see the line become a bit more scattered in nature. Areas west of I-45 and north I-10 still stand the best odds of seeing appreciable rainfall on the order of 1″ or more. There are some signs that the boundary may stall near Houston or just south and east. That could allow for some additional rain to fire up through Saturday evening and overnight. Rest assured, we have alerted the Easter Bunny to wipe his paws at the door.

Don’t focus on the exact rainfall totals forecast from the HRRR model below, but you get the sense of how sporadic it may be, with some areas easily seeing 1 to 2 inches, while others see little to no rain at all.

Generally speaking though, we should see the rain trend toward less coverage and intensity from late evening to overnight.

Easter Sunday

With the front stalled out near the coast or just inland, we should see at least some low clouds, drizzle, and rain showers around south and east of Houston. So, if you’ll be attending any sunrise services, you may need a poncho. Some steadier rain is possible on Easter morning south of the region, toward Matagorda Bay or Corpus Christi. Highs on Sunday will be held back due to cooler air and cloud cover and may not get out of the upper 60s in much of the area.

Monday

Clouds or a shower may even remain with us into Monday morning, but we should see brightening skies with highs in the low 70s. Morning lows will be in the 50s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

A generally nice pair of days is setting up for midweek with highs in the mid to upper 70s and some sunshine. We could see a few extra clouds on Wednesday, along with a chance of a shower. But for the most part it looks quiet. Our coolest morning will be Tuesday, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Later next week

We look to get back to a more active spring pattern later next week with at least the mention of shower or thunderstorm chances each day. As of right now, nothing in particular is standing out, but hopefully we can get some parts of the area a little more rainfall. We shall see.