Matt Lanza

In brief: Today, we look at how drought has changed in the Houston area since last weekend’s rain (it hasn’t). We also take stock of our weekend cold front and look out in time at rain chances over the next 10 days, which are generally absent.

Did this past weekend’s rain help with drought?

No. Technically, it did not. Drought coverage remained unmoved over the last week, with about 95 percent of the area in some sort of drought and over 75 percent in severe drought.

Keep in mind that “drought” itself carries a number of varying definitions. The drought monitor maps like above capture the bulk of the story but not all of the story. Sure, did this past weekend’s rain help matters? Absolutely. But when you’re talking about longer term issues with things like agriculture or water supply or things like that, the story can vary over time and space. Either way, we need more rain. And we’re not gonna get it for a bit.

Today & Saturday

Other than areas of dense fog this morning, perhaps lingering into the afternoon near Galveston, things look pretty quiet today and tomorrow. Expect highs near 80 inland and 70s nearer the coast. Outside of low clouds and fog in the morning, look for hazy conditions with clouds and sun. A few drips or drops are possible with a shower or two in area. Cedar pollen remains high, so you may be sneezy.

A cold front is going to advance through the area on Saturday evening, wiping out the haze and fog. It will also wipe out the warmth and humidity. Look for gusty winds Saturday evening, with gusts up to 30 mph inland for a short time and gusts up to 35 mph or so on the Island. The front itself should have little to no fanfare, as it will be mostly a dry front.

Sunday

Temperatures will drop off Saturday night, bottoming out in the 40s over much of the area by Sunday morning.

The breeze should remain all day but it will lower in intensity somewhat. We should see a return to sunshine, dry air, cool air, and low humidity. Look for highs in the 60s on Sunday.

Early next week

The early week will be “post-frontal pleasant” with lows in the 30s and 40s and highs in the 60s, perhaps near 70 by Tuesday. Skies should be sunny.

Later next week

It’s possible that another weak front passes through the area on Wednesday or Thursday, which could usher in another round of gusty winds and lower humidity. Before that, highs will peak back near 80 degrees or so.

Unfortunately, our rain chances over the next 10 days are minimal. Enjoy the generally nice weather, but let’s hope for rain again sooner than later.

In brief: We expect some showers and thunderstorms on Saturday in Houston, a couple of which could be on the stronger side. Outside of that, we have nice weather to close the weekend, and another warming trend in store next week.

Got Valentine’s (or anti-Valentine’s) Day plans on Saturday? Be sure to include an umbrella as part of your fancy attire. We’ve got the details on some storms this weekend.

Today

Keep your eyes open for fog this morning. It’s a prevalent pest across the southeast half of the area, and it’s locally dense in spots. It will slowly lift through morning, but fog may cling to Galveston Island or around the bay for much of Friday. Otherwise, it’ll be warm and humid today with highs in the 70s to near 80 inland and cooler at the coast.

Saturday

Through midday Saturday, all looks well. A few sprinkles or showers, as well as some continued fog is a possibility but otherwise it’ll be fine. Round one of showers or a few thunderstorms may arrive around mid to late afternoon. None of these are expected to be significant. It’s the second round that arrives in the evening, probably between 6 and 10 PM or so that may have some noisy, stronger storms.

The entire region is carpeted in a marginal risk, level 1/5, for severe weather tomorrow, which generally means lower-end coverage of severe storms. Many locations will hear thunder, but only one or two may see a severe storm with gusty winds. Storms should exit the coast around or before midnight, ending any severe threat, The chance of a severe storm may be highest north of I-10 tomorrow.

In addition, some locally heavy rain is likely tomorrow, with a few spots perhaps seeing 2 inches of rain, while others see a quarter inch. Basically, have an umbrella, and if you hear thunder, retreat to a safe indoor location.

Otherwise, look for clouds, some sun, and some fog with highs in the 70s.

Sunday & Washington’s Birthday

We should clear out and have a picture-perfect Sunday and Presidents’ Day Monday. Sunday looks glorious with sunshine and highs in the low-70s, although a bit on the breezy side at times with north winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph or so. Monday morning will start in the 40s and 50s, warming into the 70s again with pleasant humidity and sunshine.

Rest of next week

To be honest, next week looks a bit like this week, with temps warming up again into the 80s probably, along with slowly building humidity. We will probably see our next front sometime near next weekend or just beyond. Timing is suspect right now. That next front could have a tinge more punch of cooler air behind it, but nothing like a freeze or anything.

In brief: Dang nice, Houston.

Today through Sunday

This would be something of an unseasonably warm weekend anytime it occurs in winter, and to some it would be considered quite nice. After the chill of the last couple weeks, this weekend will probably feel nice to almost all. Sunshine, temps in the 70s (maybe 80?), and generally low humidity will continue.

Note how much cooler it is at the coast, with Galveston likely staying below 70 degrees. Water temperatures near the coast are in the mid-50s, which has converted the coastal Gulf into a localized air conditioning unit.

These will rebound quickly over the next week, but the combo of cold water and warm air may produce fog by Monday or Tuesday, and it will allow the island to be significantly cooler (10-15 degrees) than inland locations.

Next week

Our warmest days look to be Monday through Wednesday. Eric paid homage to the 70s yesterday, but it may be the 80s that we speak of on a couple days next week (and perhaps today). Depending on what model ensemble you choose, there’s a 20 to 40 percent chance we do it on Wednesday.

We should see shower chances infiltrate the picture beginning Tuesday however, and a weak-ish cold front looks to sneak in just after that. But it appears any cooldown will be fairly short lived, and it may be back to the 70s or 80s after a couple cool days off.

Drought update

Eric discussed the rain situation earlier this week. The latest drought update was released on Thursday and shows a small expansion of drought.

Keep in mind that this does not include the rain we saw on Tuesday (the report ends at 7 AM Tuesday). And some places saw a fair bit of helpful rain. We’ll have to see if we can cash in next week with our couple of chances. As nice as this weekend is, we probably need a couple days of soaking rain to help us out right now. If you follow weather folks on social media, you’re probably beginning to see chatter about a developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific as we head toward spring. Historically, that can skew the odds in favor of a wetter spring here in Texas, but we’re still a good way off before that would kick into gear. Something for us to keep tabs on though.

In brief: Another possible hard freeze awaits Houston on Sunday morning with colder air starting once more today. Remember your plants, pets, pipes, and neighbors. However, it does look like we swing back warmer next week for a time before our next chance of rain around midweek.

If you enjoyed the cold temperatures earlier this week, we have good news for you. If you hate the cold, we also have good news for you. Let’s just call it a good news Friday!

Basic cold weather preps again this weekend

We tend to treat the cold with some cheekiness, but it’s obviously always serious business here in Texas when it gets this cold. Saturday night and Sunday morning is the timeframe you want to really take some precautions on the extra sensitive plants, keep the pipes wrapped, and absolutely bring the pets inside.

Today

This morning may see some mixed sun and clouds before we likely go mainly cloudy for the afternoon. There is a chance that we’ll see the back edge of the clouds begin to push through the region by late afternoon and evening, followed by a clear and colder overnight. Highs will be in the 50s today as long as we get some breaks in the clouds or maybe they aren’t super thick. Otherwise, we’ll say upper-40s to low-50s.

Saturday

With clear skies will come colder temperatures tonight. Lows will be in the 30s with a light freeze possible outside the 610 Loop. Temps may dip into the 20s in some far-flung rural areas in Liberty, Walker, northern Waller, Austin, or Colorado Counties. A cold weather advisory has been posted for the entire area for Saturday morning.

Saturday itself should be a blustery but nice winter day with sunshine and highs in the 40s. The wind will make it feel more like the 30s however, even with the sunshine.

Sunday

We would advise cold weather preparations, which most of you already implemented this week anyway to continue on Sunday morning. Lows should drop into the 20s area wide.

A few locations may even dip into the teens in rural or sheltered spots. There is even some chance that a few places in the area check in as cold on Sunday morning than they did at the peak of the cold earlier this week. Coastal areas will drop to near freezing. A freeze watch is in effect.

The rest of Sunday looks glorious with sunshine, lighter winds, and highs in the 50s. Just an absolutely picture-perfect winter day.

Next week

We should continue the warming trend Monday with sunshine and highs in the 60s. A few freezing temps are possible in outlying areas one last time Monday morning, with 30s or low 40s elsewhere. Tuesday should be even warmer with highs near 70 degrees and lows in the 40s and 50s. The forecast looks a smidge trickier later next week with a chance of showers or storms and a cold front either later Tuesday or Wednesday, followed by more seasonably cold air than the unseasonable cold we saw this week to close out the first week of February.