Matt Lanza

In brief: Another nice day awaits Houston before we slip into a more unsettled pattern this weekend. Rain chances look highest on Sunday right now, lingering into early next week. Temperatures will remain mild but not super warm.

The weather since yesterday can best be summed up by good ole Nicholas Cage.

There are few things better than that absolutely refreshing mid-autumn weather. So what’s next?

Today

Look for another sunny day across the region. Some high clouds may come streaming into the area later in the day, but it should be delightful. Highs will be in the low 80s with continued low humidity.

Friday

We’ll close the week out with a mix of clouds and sun. I suppose a shower can’t be ruled out near Matagorda Bay, but for the most part, the region should be dry. Humidity will be up just a little, perhaps not enough to be noticeable, and we’ll likely see highs in the upper 70s to near 80, after a slightly warmer morning.

The weekend

I don’t ever verify a forecast with a forecast, however I want to give Eric credit here. He texted me yesterday and said “AI models bullish on rain this weekend.” Well, that seems to have now extended into other modeling as well.

Just to go on a side tangent here: This is how we use AI modeling in meteorology. It compliments but doesn’t replace the physical modeling, and in some cases it does give us an extra 12 to 24 hours notice on a forecast change or allows us to modify a forecast in some capacity. Also, the “AI” in AI weather modeling isn’t like ChatGPT or Claude or whatever. It’s machine learning: Train a model based on years of history and let it learn physics. Then it can run light years faster and with lower computational intensity than physical modeling requires. Unlike a lot of other AI, it’s actually kind of a cheaper alternative to the physical modeling. Anyway, we use those models here at Space City Weather, and we continue to track improvements and research in the field to make sure we’re consistently using not just the shiniest new toys but the ones that add value.

So, rain you say? I think Saturday is a decent bet right now for a dry day. We’ll start the day off mild, with lows in the upper 50s to maybe 60ish. Expect a good bit of cloud cover and perhaps some sunny breaks. Interestingly, our winds will be out of the northeast on Saturday, which will probably help hold temps down in the mid to upper 70s for highs. Showers are a good possibility later in the day well south of Houston, toward Matagorda Bay and maybe Brazoria County.

Sunday is more interesting, with rain chances expanding into the Houston area, as well as the potential for locally heavy downpours or some thunderstorms south of Houston.

Sunday has washout potential south of Houston. In the city and point north, right now at least, it just looks like passing showers or lighter rain, along with clouds. I will note that there’s still a good bit of uncertainty in this forecast, especially for how much rain may fall south of Houston, so let’s revisit this tomorrow. Temps should be cool on Sunday with highs in the upper 60s.

Early next week

The weekend rain is courtesy of an upper low that will linger over Texas for a couple more days. We may see more rain shower chances continuing Monday and Tuesday. Neither day should be a washout, but there should be at least a little rain and some clouds around. Some cooler air should get dragged into the area as well, leading to lows in the lower 50s, a few upper 40s, and highs in the low 70s or even upper 60s if clouds are persistent.

Later next week

We’ll probably get a couple nicer days for the middle of the week before another chance of rain toward the weekend. Temps should rebound into the mid to upper 70s with lows in the 50s.

In brief: We’re watching the chance of some rain around Houston tonight and scattered showers tomorrow. But we don’t expect that tomorrow evening’s festivities will be massively impacted. You’ll just want to stay tuned in on things. Our next cold front is slated for Tuesday with showers or thunderstorms possible, followed by a return of cooler weather.

Spooky Season

Let’s start today by talking about tomorrow. As Eric noted yesterday, there is a ton of stuff happening this weekend, not the least of which is Halloween. For the daytime crowd, we do still expect scattered showers. I may be a touch more optimistic than Eric was yesterday and say that perhaps just a third of the area will see the passing downpours.

The best chances for rain tomorrow will be in the very early morning and again after 3 to 4 PM. Yes, this means that in some neighborhoods, trick or treating may be a gametime decision. And even in those cases, the rain should end and hopefully just offer up a delay. But just please be aware of conditions before you head out. You can check the radar in our app or your other favorite weather app. While these won’t be overly crazy scattered downpours, there is the potential for some lightning. Give it at least 15 or 20 minutes after the last clap of thunder to get out on the streets.

My call for tomorrow is that daytime events should be able to go on, but if for some reason rain overperforms, there will have to be some last minute decisions to assess. And trick or treating should mostly go off fine, with a few hiccups here and there.

Now, onto the rest of the forecast.

Today

The good news is that much of Texas is seeing rain today, as some of the moisture from Tropical Storm, ex-Hurricane Vance moves into West and Central Texas.

The bad news is that Houston is not seeing much of it, and we need rain too. That said, we’ll have our chances. Look for the potential for some of this rain to try to reform over the Houston area late today, probably after 5 PM or so. We could have a few hours of moderate rain this evening before things gradually subside later in the overnight. I don’t think the entire area will see rain this evening, but there’s a chance that a chunk of the area does, especially south of Houston. If you’re heading out to pre-Halloween parties tonight, just keep that in mind.

Saturday

See the top!

Sunday

Conditions should markedly improve on Sunday. We’ll probably still have some cloud cover around, but we should see at least some sun. Highs will depend on the sun; a lot of it and we do mid-80s, little of it and we do upper 70s to around 80.

Monday

Look for a day similar to Sunday, but it should be a bit more humid. Whereas dewpoints will be in the 60s on Sunday, we may see them rise into the 70s on Monday. This will be out ahead of a developing storm system to our west. Winds may begin to pick up off the Gulf on Monday night, with gusts to 20 mph or so.

Tuesday

This developing storm on Tuesday is going to drag a front into the Houston area either in the morning or in the early afternoon. With it will be a line of thunderstorms. I don’t want to overpromise here, but it does seem like we’ll get a burst of locally heavy rain as the front passes through. We’ll have a better idea on coverage and intensity Monday and update you then.

What will it do to temperatures? We’ll probably be in the 70s Tuesday morning, maybe creeping up into the 80s again. Behind the front, we’ll fall back into the 60s and possibly into the 50s by Wednesday morning.

Rest of next week

After Tuesday’s turbulence, it looks calmer the rest of next week. High pressure will build back in over the Southern Plains, allowing for seasonably warm temperatures in the 70s to near 80 by day and 50s by night. The cloud cover hanging around between now and Tuesday should clear as well, leading to a nice 3 or so days of weather to close next week. Our next storm system should begin to impact the region sometime late next weekend.

In brief: Drought continues to expand across the Houston area with continued sunshine. More of that to come, but we are watching some potential for rain by late next week or around Halloweekend. Don’t alter your plans yet though, as we have a lot of questions still in front of us.

We’ve done well this week with lows generally in the 50s and some lower 60s. But we are about to change things just a bit. More 60s for lows and fewer 50s. But not much hotter during the daytime. Rain, I hardly know you.

The on again/off again relationship with drought that we’ve had for the last 4 to 5 years continues to escalate back into “going steady” mode. Drought now covers over 80 percent of the Houston region, with over 25 percent classified as severe or extreme. Do we expect rain over the next week or so?

Not really, but as Eric noted yesterday, it does appear that some kind of system is poised to impact the area around next weekend, so perhaps we will be able to ease up a little bit on the drought if that comes through. In the meantime, it’s just more of the same, really.

Today through Sunday

If it’s not wall to wall sunshine this weekend, it’ll be close. We probably stand to see some higher clouds on Sunday, but today and tomorrow look like sunscreen and ozone days. Ground ozone will be high, so air quality will be poor. Highs should be in the mid-80s today and tomorrow and lower 80s on Sunday with the clouds. Overnight lows in the 60s will be held up a bit as humidity slowly returns. Winds will be gusty at times, especially Saturday.

Early next week

Cloud cover should persist to some extent early next week with just a stray shower chance, mainly south or west of Houston. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s and lows should continue in the 60s.

Later next week

Obviously with Halloween next Saturday, everyone is focused on that forecast. It does still appear that some kind of system will impact us Friday or Saturday. If I had to place bets, I would probably put most of my chips on Saturday right now. That does not mean Halloween will be a washout; things could easily push through 12 hours before evening fun or even after midnight. Or the forecast could change completely We’re not good enough at this to tell you specifically 8 days in advance. However, the timeline of a system with potential for rain and thunderstorms either Friday or Saturday is the going forecast right now.

One thing to watch will be to see if the remnant moisture of what should become major Hurricane Vance this weekend can get funneled into the U.S. and hook up with this system late next week. So, yes, that could be able to produce locally decent rainfall. But could that go into interior Texas? Not make it here at all? More questions than answers right now, but let’s hope for some rain — just not around Trick or Treat time!

In brief: Autumn arrives in the Houston area today, with plummeting humidity and comfortable, if not cool temperatures this weekend! While next week offers a warming trend, humidity levels and morning lows stay under control, allowing for continued mostly pleasant, warmer weather.

Fall’s first real front

Welcome to autumn, my friends! As of this writing, our much discussed cold front has entered Grimes, northern Waller, and northwest Montgomery Counties. We will now get multiple days of comfortable, pleasant autumn weather, so get outside and enjoy it. Hopefully you can dial back the AC a little too. With that in mind, our partners at Reliant have some energy saving tips at the end of this post to help take full advantage of the nice weather.

Indeed, temperatures have fallen in the Brazos Valley with 60s now in College Station as of 5:30 AM. Temperatures are as much as 20 degrees cooler than they were 24 hours ago just west of I-35 in Central Texas. It’s coming.

Today & tonight

Before the front hits, look for a few scattered showers or a thunderstorm. The wind will crank up as well. Calm winds this morning will shift out of the north and will gust at 30 to 35 mph behind the front, stronger perhaps on Galveston Island, by Galveston Bay, or in the Brazos Valley.

Temperatures in the low-70s this morning may drop back into the upper 60s in spots today. But generally, they’ll hang near 70 degrees. Dewpoints will fall into the 40s this evening making it feel exquisite, albeit windy. Look for overnight lows to drop down into the 50s everywhere, even Galveston with some pockets of 40s possible in the usual colder spots.

In terms of clouds vs sun, we should see more clouds than sun this morning and more sun than clouds this afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday

Perfect. That’s about all we need to say. Winds will remain a little gusty on Saturday, though not as strong as today, and they’ll back off even more on Sunday. Highs around 70 on Saturday, lows around 45 to 50 away from the water on Sunday morning, and highs in the low to mid-70s Sunday afternoon.

Next week

For those of you that enjoy Houston for warmer weather than this weekend provides, next week should be a return to warmer conditions. Look for a slow increase in both temperature and humidity, though probably not returning anywhere close to the levels we have been dealing with. I expect to see highs near 80 on Monday, the low to mid 80s on Tuesday, and the mid-80s on Wednesday. Morning lows will also slowly nudge up to the mid-50s Monday, near 60 Tuesday, and the low-60s Wednesday. Some overnight guidance tries to keep lows in the 50s through Wednesday. Usually we end up warming back up a little faster than expected in these scenarios so I’ll keep us warm for now and Eric can tell you I was wrong on Monday.

That said, despite the warming trend, we are probably now at the point on the calendar where even on hotter days, the evenings and mornings aren’t half bad. The week looks rain-free at this time as well.

A message from Reliant

Fall weather is finally arriving this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and a break from the long Texas summer. The milder weather often provides relief for many of us as we’re relying less on air conditioning. Here are a few ways to maximize savings during the cool front:

• Follow the “4-by-4” principle. Set your thermostat four degrees higher when you’re away from home for more than four hours to reduce electricity usage and costs.
• Try to use natural ventilation and open windows when the weather is nice rather than running the AC or heater.
• Change air filters regularly. Dirty air filters make your AC work harder than it should and reduces air flow. Take note of when to change your air filter along with the size so you have them in stock or are ready to purchase when the time comes.
• You may not think of leveraging your ceiling fan when thinking about staying warm, but it can be a useful tool. Set your ceiling fan to rotate clockwise to help force warm air down from the ceiling into the room and create a more comfortable environment. Turn off ceiling fans when you leave a room to cut back on unnecessary energy usage.

Milder temperatures can naturally reduce energy usage, but it’s also a great time for maintenance to improve your home’s efficiency and prepare heating systems for the colder months ahead.

• Inspect insulation. The best way to do this is to hire a professional to check it throughout your house.
• Seal air leaks. Common places for leaks include windows, doors, attics and basements. Add weatherstripping around doors and caulking around windows to seal leaks, which helps keep indoor air in and outdoor air out. By sealing air leaks around your home, you can improve comfort and potentially save up to 10% on total energy costs.
• Tune up your HVAC before winter and summer to make sure you’re comfortable even on the coldest and hottest days of the year.

Customers can visit reliant.com/falltips for more information on ways to stay comfortable without spending more.