Matt Lanza

In brief: Houston may be turning the corner in terms of rainfall as winter approaches. Another storm system this weekend is likely to douse much of the area with a fair bit of rain Sunday, and more may be on the horizon. Along with the rain, some chilly weather too.

Fundraiser

Thank you to those who have participated in our annual fundraiser each year. As Eric noted earlier this week when we launched the 2026 edition, we keep this deliberately limited to November for the holidays and avoid asking for money during hurricane season. Your support greatly helps in keeping the site and especially the app current! I have been floored by how many little things go into making an app functional and current. The site is live here.

Without fail we always get some complaints from folks that they just want to make a donation and can’t quite figure out how. It’s definitely a little less intuitive than we’d like, but it’s part of the deal. So! If that’s what you’d prefer to do, we explain on the fundraiser page, but here’s a quick outline.

1.) Click this link.

2.) There’s a little checkbox at the top that says “I’d like to make a donation only.” Click that, and the shirt will disappear.

3.) Choose your amount and the details they ask for.

4.) Click continue at the bottom, and it should take you to the checkout process.

However you choose to support us, be it by reading, buying merch, spreading the word (please keep spreading the word!), or donating, we are grateful to all of you for keeping this enterprise flying high for the last 11 years. Thank you!!

Onward.

Turning the rainfall corner?

While the weather is truly lovely at present, we have seen some rain this week, and we are likely to see more this weekend. So, are we turning a corner? The answer is maybe. We can assess this by looking at the forecast of accumlated precipitation over the next couple weeks from the 51 member European ensemble model.

You can see a couple things. First, almost all of the ensemble members are forecasting a good bit of rain in Houston this weekend. Yes, you have a couple that show 0.5 to 0.8″ only, but most settle in at over an inch, with many close to 2 inches. But beyond that, there are a good number of ensemble members that bring in another shot of rain later next week and some that include more rain late next weekend or early on Thanksgiving week. I recall a few comments from folks lambasting the hype over the El Niño as providing false hope for rain. While we may not be getting soaked constantly this winter, we will likely get our share of storms and rain and hopefully push out drought once again.

Today

Just another absolute gem of a day. Highs in the low 70s with sunshine and low humidity. Enjoy!

Saturday

Tomorrow should start out lovely once again, with lows in the 50s. As the day progresses, it will turn cloudy, however. Highs should only make the mid 60s because of that, and we will pick up a bit of an east wind around 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday

The weather gets more interesting on Sunday. As an upper level storm system digs into the Texas Panhandle, it will help fire up rain and thunderstorms out ahead of it across interior Texas. By later Sunday morning those storms will be knocking on the doorstep of the Houston area. As this system moves through, a pretty potent little surface low pressure system is going to develop off the coast.

This means periods of rain, heavy at times on Sunday, along with thunderstorms. While we do not expect much severe weather, some storms near the coast could be on the stronger side with gusty winds. Those areas are highlighted in a marginal severe weather risk as well (level 1/5). Regardless, it seems likely that Galveston Island may see 30 to 35 mph gusts late Sunday into Monday behind the storm and front. Expect Sunday to be a rather nasty day.

In terms of open questions: How much rain falls, and is it worse in the morning or afternoon? Right now it seems like the entire area will see 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rain, with highest amounts near the coast. But this could change. I expect Eric will chime in with an update tomorrow for the latest on this storm and to see if we need to push out a Stage 1 flood alert.

Early next week

As the storm passes east of the area on Monday, clouds and some showers may be left behind, along with a cool northeast wind. We may struggle to get above 60 degrees Monday, with temps in the mid to upper 50s most of the day. Things should clear a bit on Tuesday, allowing for sunshine and a return to 60s.

Later next week

Additional rounds of rain are possible later next week along with more cloud cover. Temperatures should rebound some into the 70s, along with a bit more humidity. A relatively active weather pattern seems to be settling in across the Southern U.S., typical for strong El Niño late autumns.

In brief: A tricky forecast awaits Sunday in the Houston area, with at least some rain possible. The heaviest rain seems destined for Laredo or Corpus Christi, however. Look for unsettled weather early next week, but rain totals will vary a good bit across the area between now and then. Some cooler weather this weekend will shift warmer again next week.

Today & Saturday

We kick off the weekend on a positive note today with another generally nice one. Look for sun, a few passing clouds, and highs in the lower 80s. More clouds will impact Saturday, so it will be a bit cooler. We’ll start the day in the low to mid 60s, then warm into the mid to upper 70s with a mix of clouds and sun. No rain is expected tomorrow, but a few spots may see some mist or drizzle.

Sunday

Our most interesting weather day this weekend is Sunday. I will add the disclaimer here that the forecast is subject to change, and if it does significantly change, we’ll post tomorrow or Sunday morning.

The main culprit in the weather risk this weekend will be an area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that cuts off from the jet stream over northern Mexico. When that happens, you basically get a slow moving storm system above our heads that allows for periods of rain and storms in spots.

An interesting wrinkle to this forecast is that a day or so ago, it looked like this would cut off and progress east a bit into our area by Sunday. Today it looks as though it wants to hang back some, more toward El Paso and the Big Bend. What this means for Sunday is that we’ll probably see showers around the area, but I am skeptical that we see a washout. Heavy rain is likely near and south of San Antonio or down toward Victoria. The question is whether or not there’s enough oomph to carry that stuff northward toward the Houston area.

So we’ll see how this all shakes out. For now, I’d expect at least some rain on Sunday but your mileage will vary on how much; better odds southwest, lower odds northeast. Highs should be in the 60s to near 70 or so.

Early next week

Shower chances will probably continue into Monday, if not Tuesday in the area as the upper low pushes through. Rain amounts will be quite sporadic with many places seeing little to no rain and others seeing perhaps closer to an inch.

The European ensemble forecast above of total rainfall shows the potential for maybe a half-inch in the Houston area on average. Some places, especially north and east will see less. Some places south and west may see more if the heavier rains can move in on Sunday or Monday. The bullseye for this event looks to be somewhere between Laredo and Corpus Christi.

Temperatures will warm up a bit, back into the 70s with lows mainly in the 50s.

Later next week

I don’t want to speculate too far in advance given that there are a lot of moving parts at the moment, but I would lead toward at least a temporary bump up in temps again toward next weekend with a chance of rain back in the forecast sometime later in the weekend or early the week of November 16th.

In brief: Another nice day awaits Houston before we slip into a more unsettled pattern this weekend. Rain chances look highest on Sunday right now, lingering into early next week. Temperatures will remain mild but not super warm.

The weather since yesterday can best be summed up by good ole Nicholas Cage.

There are few things better than that absolutely refreshing mid-autumn weather. So what’s next?

Today

Look for another sunny day across the region. Some high clouds may come streaming into the area later in the day, but it should be delightful. Highs will be in the low 80s with continued low humidity.

Friday

We’ll close the week out with a mix of clouds and sun. I suppose a shower can’t be ruled out near Matagorda Bay, but for the most part, the region should be dry. Humidity will be up just a little, perhaps not enough to be noticeable, and we’ll likely see highs in the upper 70s to near 80, after a slightly warmer morning.

The weekend

I don’t ever verify a forecast with a forecast, however I want to give Eric credit here. He texted me yesterday and said “AI models bullish on rain this weekend.” Well, that seems to have now extended into other modeling as well.

Just to go on a side tangent here: This is how we use AI modeling in meteorology. It compliments but doesn’t replace the physical modeling, and in some cases it does give us an extra 12 to 24 hours notice on a forecast change or allows us to modify a forecast in some capacity. Also, the “AI” in AI weather modeling isn’t like ChatGPT or Claude or whatever. It’s machine learning: Train a model based on years of history and let it learn physics. Then it can run light years faster and with lower computational intensity than physical modeling requires. Unlike a lot of other AI, it’s actually kind of a cheaper alternative to the physical modeling. Anyway, we use those models here at Space City Weather, and we continue to track improvements and research in the field to make sure we’re consistently using not just the shiniest new toys but the ones that add value.

So, rain you say? I think Saturday is a decent bet right now for a dry day. We’ll start the day off mild, with lows in the upper 50s to maybe 60ish. Expect a good bit of cloud cover and perhaps some sunny breaks. Interestingly, our winds will be out of the northeast on Saturday, which will probably help hold temps down in the mid to upper 70s for highs. Showers are a good possibility later in the day well south of Houston, toward Matagorda Bay and maybe Brazoria County.

Sunday is more interesting, with rain chances expanding into the Houston area, as well as the potential for locally heavy downpours or some thunderstorms south of Houston.

Sunday has washout potential south of Houston. In the city and point north, right now at least, it just looks like passing showers or lighter rain, along with clouds. I will note that there’s still a good bit of uncertainty in this forecast, especially for how much rain may fall south of Houston, so let’s revisit this tomorrow. Temps should be cool on Sunday with highs in the upper 60s.

Early next week

The weekend rain is courtesy of an upper low that will linger over Texas for a couple more days. We may see more rain shower chances continuing Monday and Tuesday. Neither day should be a washout, but there should be at least a little rain and some clouds around. Some cooler air should get dragged into the area as well, leading to lows in the lower 50s, a few upper 40s, and highs in the low 70s or even upper 60s if clouds are persistent.

Later next week

We’ll probably get a couple nicer days for the middle of the week before another chance of rain toward the weekend. Temps should rebound into the mid to upper 70s with lows in the 50s.

In brief: We’re watching the chance of some rain around Houston tonight and scattered showers tomorrow. But we don’t expect that tomorrow evening’s festivities will be massively impacted. You’ll just want to stay tuned in on things. Our next cold front is slated for Tuesday with showers or thunderstorms possible, followed by a return of cooler weather.

Spooky Season

Let’s start today by talking about tomorrow. As Eric noted yesterday, there is a ton of stuff happening this weekend, not the least of which is Halloween. For the daytime crowd, we do still expect scattered showers. I may be a touch more optimistic than Eric was yesterday and say that perhaps just a third of the area will see the passing downpours.

The best chances for rain tomorrow will be in the very early morning and again after 3 to 4 PM. Yes, this means that in some neighborhoods, trick or treating may be a gametime decision. And even in those cases, the rain should end and hopefully just offer up a delay. But just please be aware of conditions before you head out. You can check the radar in our app or your other favorite weather app. While these won’t be overly crazy scattered downpours, there is the potential for some lightning. Give it at least 15 or 20 minutes after the last clap of thunder to get out on the streets.

My call for tomorrow is that daytime events should be able to go on, but if for some reason rain overperforms, there will have to be some last minute decisions to assess. And trick or treating should mostly go off fine, with a few hiccups here and there.

Now, onto the rest of the forecast.

Today

The good news is that much of Texas is seeing rain today, as some of the moisture from Tropical Storm, ex-Hurricane Vance moves into West and Central Texas.

The bad news is that Houston is not seeing much of it, and we need rain too. That said, we’ll have our chances. Look for the potential for some of this rain to try to reform over the Houston area late today, probably after 5 PM or so. We could have a few hours of moderate rain this evening before things gradually subside later in the overnight. I don’t think the entire area will see rain this evening, but there’s a chance that a chunk of the area does, especially south of Houston. If you’re heading out to pre-Halloween parties tonight, just keep that in mind.

Saturday

See the top!

Sunday

Conditions should markedly improve on Sunday. We’ll probably still have some cloud cover around, but we should see at least some sun. Highs will depend on the sun; a lot of it and we do mid-80s, little of it and we do upper 70s to around 80.

Monday

Look for a day similar to Sunday, but it should be a bit more humid. Whereas dewpoints will be in the 60s on Sunday, we may see them rise into the 70s on Monday. This will be out ahead of a developing storm system to our west. Winds may begin to pick up off the Gulf on Monday night, with gusts to 20 mph or so.

Tuesday

This developing storm on Tuesday is going to drag a front into the Houston area either in the morning or in the early afternoon. With it will be a line of thunderstorms. I don’t want to overpromise here, but it does seem like we’ll get a burst of locally heavy rain as the front passes through. We’ll have a better idea on coverage and intensity Monday and update you then.

What will it do to temperatures? We’ll probably be in the 70s Tuesday morning, maybe creeping up into the 80s again. Behind the front, we’ll fall back into the 60s and possibly into the 50s by Wednesday morning.

Rest of next week

After Tuesday’s turbulence, it looks calmer the rest of next week. High pressure will build back in over the Southern Plains, allowing for seasonably warm temperatures in the 70s to near 80 by day and 50s by night. The cloud cover hanging around between now and Tuesday should clear as well, leading to a nice 3 or so days of weather to close next week. Our next storm system should begin to impact the region sometime late next weekend.