Matt Lanza

In brief: Shower chances! They’re in Houston for a little bit, though most places will see little rain each day. Still, some less hot weather and additional downpours will be in the forecast through the weekend. After that? The heat is coming back.

Some slow-moving downpours impacted parts of the Houston area on Tuesday lingering into the evening hours in portions of northern Harris County. In fact, some areas saw nearly 3 inches of rain!

The big winner was a Harris County Flood Control gauge along Halls Bayou at Airline, with 2.88 inches. It was a narrow corridor, but it was hit good.

Onward.

Today and Thursday

99? 100? Does it even matter? It’s hot! Thankfully, as high pressure starts to loosen up a little bit, the area will see modestly “less hot” weather the next couple days. Look for upper-90s today, more like 98 or so than 99 to 100. And if you feel spicy, lop off another degree on Thursday. Rain chances will remain relatively low in terms of coverage, but like yesterday, there should be at least a few slow-moving downpours each afternoon.

Friday and Saturday

Much more of the same is expected to close the week and start the weekend. High temperatures will probably drop off another degree or two, closer to the mid-90s. Rain chances may dial up another 5 percent or so with pockets of afternoon downpours near the coast and bays and moving inland, more of a traditional sea breeze-driven type setup.

Sunday and Monday

Temperatures should “bottom out” here. Look for mid-90s and a continued chance of daily downpours. Monday may actually see the greatest coverage of daily showers over this stretch.

Rest of next week

This break looks short-lived. I would expect to see temperatures begin to increase again next week. Beginning Tuesday, high pressure begins to reload and reorient. It will probably anchor itself very near Houston or just to the north. If that happens, you can expect a multi-day stretch of temperatures flirting with 100 degrees in addition to very low rain chances. In fact, the area is highlighted on the day 8 to 14 hazards outlook for risk of “extreme heat,” which is really benchmarked at 100ish risk.

Temperatures should be back into the upper-90s by Wednesday to perhaps near 100 again by Thursday, and there they shall sit for more than a couple days. It appears that August is about to August in a very august manner.

In brief: Today we discuss a bit about yesterday’s wider spread rain than expected in parts of the Houston area. A few additional storms are possible today before the heat parks itself back over Houston for much of next week.

Bertha recap

In terms of wind, Bertha was a nothingburger in Houston, as expected. In fact, I don’t believe any coastal location gusted much above 35 mph yesterday. In terms of rain, Bertha did overachieve in a chunk of the Houston area.

In Missouri City, several locations right along 90A picked up over 5 inches of rain which led to some rapid onset flash flooding. That extended back into Sugar Land as well. Meyerland saw about 3 inches of rain. Downtown Houston saw about 0.75″ of rain. In hindsight, while we mentioned that brief torrential rain was likely in spots yesterday afternoon, a Stage 1 flood alert probably would have worked best. It seemed as if the heaviest downpours would move fast enough to avoid that. Instead, everything congealed over Houston for a couple hours, and we got the above. While the tropical storm aspect of Bertha mostly did what was expected, the rain part remains a challenge.

Bertha’s remnants are passing southwest of San Antonio today, and they will continue through Mexico today and this weekend.

Today

A few showers or a thunderstorm are likely today across the area, with some onshore flow trailing Bertha. Atmospheric moisture levels are still pretty high, though decreasing. Still, that could mean again some locally heavy downpours this afternoon. Otherwise, look for highs in the mid-90s with sun and clouds.

Weekend

Saturday looks dry and hot with mid to upper 90s. Sunday should be similar, but there will be a slight tick up in available moisture for a few showers. So don’t be shocked to see that happen in a few spots.

Next week

Temperatures are going to surge once again next week back to near 100 degrees. Wednesday or Thursday should be the peak day, with highs around 101 to 103 in Houston. Rain chances will be shelved for the most part through Wednesday, but a backdoor front, sort of like what we saw on this past Wednesday evening could try to sneak through and provide a chance of storms either Thursday or Friday evening.

Slightly “less hot” weather is likely after Wednesday or Thursday, but we’ll watch trends through the weekend and update you on Monday.

In brief: Watch for areas of flash flooding over the next few hours as Bertha’s downpours press through the Houston region. Stage 1 or low-end 2 type flooding is expected in the impacted areas.

A flash flood warning is posted for portions of southwest Harris and Fort Bend County until 9 PM, as some bands of torrential downpours have pushed through the area. They are very slowly drifting north and west, but have dumped as much as 4 inches of rain over Missouri City in the last couple hours.

I would expect the flood advisory to eventually be expanded north and west as heavy downpours impact other parts of Harris and Fort Bend Counties, and another flash flood warning can’t be ruled out either. Watch for areas of street flooding over the next few hours, especially west of I-45. We should see storms and downpours peak over the next 2 to 3 hours and settle back down after 9 to 10 PM or so. Again, the core of the heaviest rain may slowly lift north and west, which should hopefully keep flooding from going beyond Stage 1 or perhaps low-end 2 in those areas.

Bertha itself has made landfall east of Houston and will continue off to the west or west southwest through the night and tomorrow.

In brief: Tropical Storm Bertha will pass through Houston today with a chance of a few gusty, heavy downpours and some steadier rain well south of Houston or on the immediate coast. Overall impacts are expected to be minimal. The heat backs off some today before revving back up later this weekend and next week.

Tropical Storm Bertha

Bertha is holding steady this morning, which is to say it remains mostly a steadily moving rainstorm.

You can see that the center of Bertha is hugging the Louisiana coast, while virtually all the storminess is displaced to the south and southwest well offshore. Bertha is not healthy but it’s a pretty blobby storm. Over the next 12 to 18 hours, the surface center of Bertha will move toward the Upper Texas coast, while the bulk of the rain moves toward Matagorda Bay and south or just falls over the open waters of the Gulf.

Bertha will make landfall again in Texas, likely no stronger than it currently is, with maximum winds over water of 45 mph and likely a good bit less than that over land.

Impacts in the Houston area? We’ll see scattered gusty thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, somewhat like we saw yesterday (a handful of CenterPoint weather sensors exceeded 60 mph near the Bay and Gulf). Any of those storms could briefly produce torrential rain and localized wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph (most people will not see that). In addition, some breezy conditions will occur on Galveston Island down through Freeport, with a few gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible. Tides will be slightly elevated and there could be some run up on beaches, though coastal flooding is expected to be very minor. Basically, this should be like any modest coastal storm we see throughout the year.

Rain totals should not require even a Stage 1 flood alert on our flood scale today, but again just be aware that it could start pouring out of the blue at some point today.

On the positive side, cloud cover should hold temperatures down some after yesterday’s heat.

Today and Friday

We hit 102 degrees at both Bush and Hobby yesterday. (For those monitoring how close IAH is to reality, a CenterPoint sensor placed near the airport also measured 102 degrees). We will…not hit 102 degrees today. Look for highs back in the mid-90s today, especially north and west and upper 80s to low-90s south and east, closer to Bertha’s cloud deck.

Tomorrow should be a little hotter with Bertha passing inland to our southwest and declining. Look for mostly low to mid-90s.

Weekend

Saturday should be dry. Sunday should be dry for most too, though an isolated downpour can’t be ruled out. Temperatures inch upward here, back into the mid to upper-90s on Sunday.

Next week

Up, up, up we go again. We should be back to near 100 on Monday or Tuesday. Temps may exceed 100 on Wednesday or Thursday before sliding back some next weekend. But it appears another good heat wave is coming next week. Rain chances may remain minimal through Friday.