The Space City Weather Houston World Cup weather primer

In brief: This is the first in a series of World Cup-related posts for Houston and our visitors. In this one, we tackle typical June weather in Houston and introduce folks to some insider knowledge to help manage the weather in the Bayou City.

For our regular Space City Weather readers, you’ll already know a lot of this, but perhaps a nice refresher can’t hurt! And for those of you visiting Houston for the World Cup or coming to our fair city for the first time, here are some weather and community things to know! We’ll have some additional World Cup themed posts in the coming days.

Pick your outdoor time carefully

Houston’s all about the heat in summer. I’ve been a meteorologist in Houston for 14 years now, and while August is by far our most oppressive month, June begins the process of testing you. Average highs through June increase to about 93 degrees by the time Germany and Curaçao take the pitch this weekend. Morning lows aren’t much better. While they average about 75 degrees, that usually comes with a good bit of humidity.

The first piece of advice: Utilize the evening hours for outdoor exercise. Houston usually gets a nice sea breeze off the Gulf that arrives in the city around 5 or 6 PM. That can come with increased humidity, but once temperatures begin to level off during the evening hours, the breeze offsets it a good bit. Conversely, the mornings can be still, thick, and rather gross.

If you do need to get out for a run or walk, Houston has a wonderful and underrated park system. Hermann Park is a particular jewel in the middle of the Museum District north of Reliant Stadium and the Texas Medical Center, with trails, a delightful Japanese garden, a golf course, the Houston Zoo, and much more. Hermann Park is also adjacent to or a short walk from the Museum of Natural Science, Museum of Fine Arts, Children’s Museum, and Health Museum, among others.

Some Houston June temperature superlatives: The hottest recorded temperature during the period of the World Cup in Houston was 107 degrees back on June 29, 2013. 100 degrees or better has been achieved 67 times through the June 14 to July 4 period. So, brace yourself, you wild Oranjefans and stay hydrated!

Move that water

To the outside, Houston is known as Space City because of its prominent place in U.S. space history, but the official nickname is the Bayou City. Houston is divided up by a network of bayous, each with its own character and watershed. The bayous serve a natural purpose by conveying water from the frequent downpours the areas receives through the region and out into Galveston Bay and eventually the Gulf. Despite dividing up the city, they will also connect many neighborhoods through a complex and massive trail system known as the Bayou Greenways. The intent is that people will be able to get across much of the city via the trail network in the future.

The watersheds and bayous of Harris County, TX. (Harris County Flood Control District)

But the bayous are ultimately the freeway network for water here in Houston, and we get a lot of it. Houston averages about 52 inches of rain per year, which is about 13 inches more than Seattle. The difference is that in Houston, when it rains, it rains. Our wettest month of the year on average is June, when the city normally receives about 6 inches of rain. However, that can vary. In June of 2004, we received over 18 inches of rain here in Houston, with no tropical storms and eight days of an inch or more. The following June, we received less than one-tenth of an inch of rain over the entire month. So far this month, we’re tracking wetter, with some places seeing -a lot- of rain.

A sampling of rain totals since May 1st (in inches) across the Houston region. (NOAA)

And this after a wet May.

Much like it does season to season, summertime thunderstorms in Houston will vary from place to place. A typical summer day features thunderstorms developing near the coast or just inland in the morning hours, moving into the city and north and west during the afternoon hours. But many areas will hear thunder or see nothing at all, while a few places pick up an inch or two of rain. The dividing line between “rain o’clock” and nothing at all can be razor thin all summer long. We seem to have this pattern already well established this month, so as long as there remains available atmospheric moisture, we should expect daily thunder chances in the Houston area. Thankfully, the matches will be played indoors.

For folks visiting Houston, it’s important to understand that the rain here is probably not what you’re used to unless you live in the tropics. It falls hard, sometimes at a rate of 3 to 5 inches an hour. Flooding of streets happens frequently during the worst rain events. More serious flooding is rarer, but it does occasionally happen, and as a visitor to Houston, you should know two key things. First, Houston’s streets are a part of the drainage system. That’s not a typo. While the bayous serve as the first defense against flooding, the fact of the matter is that even the best drainage systems struggle to keep up with rain rates as intense as we see here in Houston. Thus, the street network sort of acts as a retention network for water. You’d rather have streets flood than buildings. Houston can’t engineer flooding away but this solution does mitigate it to a certain extent.

We strongly encourage you to stay informed while in Houston for all the festivities. The weather can change quickly here. (AlertHouston)

The second thing you should know is how to receive weather warnings. In most cases, your phone can prompt you about flash flood or tornado warnings. Brian Mason, the director of the Houston Office of Emergency Management recommends their AlertHouston mobile alert system. “We have created a special keyword for messaging during World Cup. Text HOUWC26 to 888777 to receive weather-related and other local emergency alerts from Houston Office of Emergency Management.” Some people may be wary of another push notification, but I would strongly encourage folks visiting to opt-in to these alerts during your time here.

Flooding can also be linked to tropical storms and hurricanes. Houston has not been directly impacted by a hurricane in June since 1921, but there have been numerous tropical storms including the infamous Allison in 2001, which deposited nearly 40 inches of rain on a portion of the city. The most recent early season hurricane was Beryl in early July of 2024, an intense category 1, almost category 2 storm that caused severe tree damage to the Houston area resulting in massive power disruptions. But cases like this are rare, and Houston’s more serious hurricane impacts typically don’t occur until August or September. As of right now, we are not expecting tropical activity in the Houston area this month.

Shower chances slowly ease back late this weekend across the Houston but not entirely

In brief: While numerous rain showers will continue in the Houston area today and probably tomorrow, the overall trend will be toward slightly less coverage toward Sunday. This should lead to a rather classic June week next week with heat, humidity, and hopefully some cooling downpours each afternoon.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms have impacted the region the last few days. Pockets of the area have seen as much as 3 to 5 inches of rainfall. Are we heading for a repeat of last summer, where it rained basically every day somewhere? Too soon to say, but we’re off to a tolerable start to summer to say the least.

Today and tomorrow

We’ve got a batch of showers that’s been following I-45 south of Downtown and then 290 and 249 northwest of Downtown since the overnight hours.

Radar as of 6:25 AM Friday showing the orientation of rain showers. (WeatherFront)

For the rest of today, we are expecting numerous showers and some thunderstorms across the area. Coverage may focus away from the coast today. Some areas will skate around the rain, but others will cash in once more. We should do it once again tomorrow, though I would not be shocked if we see a few heavier storms embedded tomorrow too. We’ll top off in the mid-80s today and mid to perhaps upper-80s tomorrow if we have just a little less coverage.

Sunday

By the end of the weekend, rainfall coverage should back into more of a typical summer pattern. Heavier showers will be near the coast in the morning, then perhaps inland by afternoon. But overall coverage should begin to scale back some here. Highs will be around 90 degrees.

Next week

For most of next week, we establish a very June weather setup across Southeast Texas. Sun, clouds, isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms, heat, and humidity. Highs will be in the lower-90s, hopefully with many of us seeing some cooling afternoon downpours. One note about next week: I think we’re going to see nighttime lows start to rev up a bit.

Approximate forecast morning lows on Wednesday. (WeatherFront)

We’ve only had four mornings this year above 75 degrees at Bush Airport (compared to 14 at this same point last year). We should string together several of them next week. As we prep for the endless World Cup events across the area, it’ll definitely feel the season. More for you Monday!

After recent rains, most of the Houston area is officially out of drought for the first time since September

In brief: A quiet weekend looks to be in store for Houston with standard early summer hot weather and minimal rain chances. Things do turn more active again next week with building rain chances after Tuesday.

The topline here is that things look pretty good this weekend for Houston! As Eric noted yesterday, we’re definitely in the early summer phase of things, and with the calendar flipping to June on Monday, that will track. Some good news today: The U.S. Drought Monitor updated on Thursday and shows virtually the entire Houston area completely out of drought now.

Basically, the entire Houston Metro area is now out of drought condition. (U.S. Drought Monitor)

As far as I can tell, this is the first time we’ve been this drought-free in the area since late September. It’s been a long while. Even in Corpus Christi, the reservoir levels in that area are as high as they’ve been since last September also.

Although the weekend looks fine, there are some signs we aren’t quite done with rainy weather entirely.

Today and the weekend

I’m not going to promise this weekend will be completely dry. It is almost June after all, and it’s tough to completely void the area of an afternoon downpour in spots. But any showers would be quite random and isolated. Aside from that, it looks fine. Highs will be near 90 or so, maybe in the low-90s in some spots. Mornings should be nice with lows in the 70s.

Monday

We could see a few additional showers in the area on Monday afternoon. But still, the majority of the region looks fairly quiet. More low-90s for highs and mid-70s for lows.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Coverage of rain and thunderstorms should increase to at least “scattered” levels for the middle of the week. Unlike this past week and weekend’s rains, the setup next week looks to favor activity moving off the Gulf or out of Louisiana initially. We could see some gusty thunderstorms with that, along with locally heavy downpours. I doubt we’ll see any of the 3 AM wakeup call stuff like we’ve had this week. Which, great, because we need sleep.

As a sidebar: There is no real serious tropical system risk in the Gulf right now for next week or the week after. The GFS model is often shown this time of year, but it has a very well known, systemic bias of constantly overforecasting tropical storms and hurricanes in May and June. So it can be safely disregarded. That said, it’s not out of the question that a weak, sloppy system forms in the eastern Gulf over the next 2 weeks. Here in Texas, our rain may fall hard at times, but it should not tied to anything tropical.

A wet weather pattern should resume later next week across Texas. (Pivotal Weather)

Later next week

We may flip the flow in the atmosphere later next week, which means storms could form in Central and West Texas and work their way east more like we saw this week. Or we’ll just end up with scattered rain and thunderstorms each day. It’s too soon to speculate on anything specific, as you know how that goes even 24 to 36 hours out sometimes. Whatever the case, it looks unsettled. Highs should back down into the 80s. But we’ll of course need to watch for localized flooding if the rain comes in higher doses. Consult your meteorologist next week to see if rainfall is right for you.

Houston’s heavy rain and storm chances will increase again Saturday night through Monday

In brief: While rain totals across the Houston area have been rather variable (ranging from less than an inch in some spots to over 8 inches in far southern Brazoria County), we expect everyone to participate in rain and storm chances this weekend, especially from Saturday night into Monday. Flash flooding remains a distinct possibility, and our Stage 2 flood alert will remain up through at least Monday.

Rainy pattern check-up

We’re a few days into this relatively significant change to a rainy pattern, and so far, so good for the most part. We’re going to maintain the Stage 2 flood alert through the holiday weekend. I think the rains we saw Wednesday down in Brazoria County (7 inches) exemplify what this setup is capable of.

Rainfall totals from various gauges across the region since Monday. (NOAA)

So far, the northern half of the area has seen a relatively pedestrian 1 to 2 inches (even less in spots), while the southern half has seen 1 to 4 inches on average, with pockets of 5 to 8 inches. We expect another 1 to 4 inches on average over the next week across the entire area. Isolated higher and a couple lower amounts are indeed possible.

For those concerned about the situation in Corpus Christi, Lake Texana has seen about 3 inches of rain, while Lake Corpus Christi has seen about 4 inches of rain so far. Areas upstream of those lakes have received anywhere from 2 to 4 inches as well. By no means does this “save” Corpus Christi from a very bad situation, but it obviously helps buy some time. And any help is great news down there right now.

Today through tomorrow afternoon

Right now, weather modeling is suspiciously calm today and much of Saturday across the area. Obviously, showers and thunderstorms are still possible. But I would suspect most places stay dry as the best “oomph” for storms remains south or offshore in the Gulf. We’ll probably see clouds and sun. Highs may nudge back up into the middle or even some upper-80s after a couple days of lower 80s. There will be plentiful humidity to go along with that.

Saturday night through Monday

If we’re going to get smacked by rainfall, Saturday evening through Memorial Day would be the timeframe I’d be watching closest. A rather vigorous disturbance in the middle and upper atmosphere is going to swing into the Houston area on Saturday evening. This should provide the trigger necessary to get storms off and running. It’s impossible to really say exactly how things are going to setup right now, but expect increasing thunderstorm chances after about 4 PM on Saturday into Saturday night across the Houston area.

Average rain totals over the next week will be about 2 to 4 inches more, but there will almost certainly be smaller pockets that could see substantially higher totals. (Pivotal Weather)

We’ll then need to watch for repeated development of storms and the risk for flash flooding, including in areas that have not seen much rain so far. With moisture in the atmosphere much higher than normal, any storms will be capable of dropping 2 to 4 inches of rain in an hour or so. Any “training” or repeating thunderstorms over the same area means those totals could add up quickly, hence the concern for some localized flooding and our Stage 2 flood alert. More to come on this throughout the weekend as we get more clarity on timing and locations impacted.

Next week

The area will remain under the influence of an unsettled weather pattern and above normal atmospheric moisture. I would expect this on again/off again type rain and storm stuff to continue through much of next week, though perhaps at a slightly slower pace. Either way, what we can say with fairly high confidence right now is that any sustained, strong early summer heat is not in the cards through at least early June.