Matt Lanza

In brief: While rain totals across the Houston area have been rather variable (ranging from less than an inch in some spots to over 8 inches in far southern Brazoria County), we expect everyone to participate in rain and storm chances this weekend, especially from Saturday night into Monday. Flash flooding remains a distinct possibility, and our Stage 2 flood alert will remain up through at least Monday.

Rainy pattern check-up

We’re a few days into this relatively significant change to a rainy pattern, and so far, so good for the most part. We’re going to maintain the Stage 2 flood alert through the holiday weekend. I think the rains we saw Wednesday down in Brazoria County (7 inches) exemplify what this setup is capable of.

So far, the northern half of the area has seen a relatively pedestrian 1 to 2 inches (even less in spots), while the southern half has seen 1 to 4 inches on average, with pockets of 5 to 8 inches. We expect another 1 to 4 inches on average over the next week across the entire area. Isolated higher and a couple lower amounts are indeed possible.

For those concerned about the situation in Corpus Christi, Lake Texana has seen about 3 inches of rain, while Lake Corpus Christi has seen about 4 inches of rain so far. Areas upstream of those lakes have received anywhere from 2 to 4 inches as well. By no means does this “save” Corpus Christi from a very bad situation, but it obviously helps buy some time. And any help is great news down there right now.

Today through tomorrow afternoon

Right now, weather modeling is suspiciously calm today and much of Saturday across the area. Obviously, showers and thunderstorms are still possible. But I would suspect most places stay dry as the best “oomph” for storms remains south or offshore in the Gulf. We’ll probably see clouds and sun. Highs may nudge back up into the middle or even some upper-80s after a couple days of lower 80s. There will be plentiful humidity to go along with that.

Saturday night through Monday

If we’re going to get smacked by rainfall, Saturday evening through Memorial Day would be the timeframe I’d be watching closest. A rather vigorous disturbance in the middle and upper atmosphere is going to swing into the Houston area on Saturday evening. This should provide the trigger necessary to get storms off and running. It’s impossible to really say exactly how things are going to setup right now, but expect increasing thunderstorm chances after about 4 PM on Saturday into Saturday night across the Houston area.

We’ll then need to watch for repeated development of storms and the risk for flash flooding, including in areas that have not seen much rain so far. With moisture in the atmosphere much higher than normal, any storms will be capable of dropping 2 to 4 inches of rain in an hour or so. Any “training” or repeating thunderstorms over the same area means those totals could add up quickly, hence the concern for some localized flooding and our Stage 2 flood alert. More to come on this throughout the weekend as we get more clarity on timing and locations impacted.

Next week

The area will remain under the influence of an unsettled weather pattern and above normal atmospheric moisture. I would expect this on again/off again type rain and storm stuff to continue through much of next week, though perhaps at a slightly slower pace. Either way, what we can say with fairly high confidence right now is that any sustained, strong early summer heat is not in the cards through at least early June.

In brief: After the hottest day of 2026 in Houston, we expect a quiet, less hot but more humid weekend. Rain chances then pick up next week with potentially locally heavy rainfall in spots by midweek.

Yesterday was our hottest day of the year in Houston, as we officially hit 91 degrees at Bush Airport. Lest anyone wonder if IAH is too overcooked, a CenterPoint sensor adjacent to the airport hit 90 degrees, so the answer is probably not. Hobby Airport also hit 91 degrees. That’s our 5th 90 degree day of the year. Early summer is here.

Today

We have a shot at pushing 91 again today, though I think we may come up just a tinge short. Dewpoints and thus humidity are a bit higher today.

We also have a few extra clouds streaming through the area today. Either way, we are quibbling. It should feel fairly similar today to yesterday.

Weekend

Saturday looks fine. Sunday could see an isolated shower but nothing that would significantly disrupt your plans. You will notice the breeze this weekend. Onshore winds around 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph are possible on both weekend days as more humid air continues to rush ashore. High temperatures will probably come up short of 90 degrees, with mostly upper-80s expected. Cloud cover will be noticeable on both days, along with breaks of sunshine.

Next week

Expect a more active weather week next week. A pretty substantial plume of moisture in the atmosphere is going to extend from Texas, across the western Gulf, and into Central America. Some of this moisture plume actually extends back into the eastern Pacific too. So, we will have plentiful moisture in place to support potentially heavy rainfall in spots.

The question we can’t answer this far out is where the triggering will end up. Will it be mainly in interior Texas? Louisiana? Here in Southeast Texas? We don’t know just yet, but there are plenty of signals in the modeling that 1 to 2 inches of rain or more will fall next week across the region. Isolated higher amounts would be almost guaranteed in this type of pattern. Bottom line: It’s too early to say exactly who will see the most rain next week, but there is an increasing chance that some parts of the area will receive locally heavy rainfall, especially next Tuesday or Wednesday. More to come on this.

The rain will hold back daytime temperatures a good bit, with highs mainly in the 80s but the moisture and clouds will hold lows in the mid to upper-70s. May the foggy glasses when you step out of the car commence.

In brief: Today should be the hottest day of the next week or so in Houston, with low 90s possible. Then, as humidity and clouds pick up some, we’ll see warmer mornings and slightly lower daytime highs. Rain chances pick back up on Monday. Plus, a special honor for SCW in today’s post!

Special thank you

Eric and I want to extend a special thank you to the City of Houston and specifically Council Member Abbie Kamin for honoring Space City Weather during yesterday’s City Council meeting with a proclamation recognizing our work. I (Matt) also want to extend a special thank you for a separate recognition on the occasion of my departure from Houston this summer.

This remains bittersweet for me personally, but I think I can speak for Eric when I say that we are grateful for the recognition. We’d be remiss not to also recognize Lee Hutchinson who has been critical to making sure the site stays up and running day in and day out, Dwight Silverman who has been an idea factory, mentor, and a big part of helping us manage our app, and Hussain Abbasi who actually built, maintains, and upgrades the Space City Weather app. It takes a village as they say, and that’s a huge part of our village.

We do what we do because we love our community and we love weather. And by some twist of fate, hard work, trust, and you, our readers, Space City Weather has become what it is. And the mission continues. Thank you again for the honor yesterday.

The quick and dirty

As Eric noted yesterday, the weather is very toasty and quiet right now, so there’s not a whole lot to say about the next few days. Expect sun, clouds, highs near 90, and increasing humidity. Today will probably be the hottest day of the next week, with perhaps a 91 or 92 being achieved. Then we shift toward more of an 88 to 90 type day/70-75 type night pattern into the weekend as a few extra clouds show up. We may see some added haze as well.

There is an air quality alert for ozone again today. When you get sunshine like we have ongoing, it tends to lead to a chemical reaction with pollutants near the ground to produce ground ozone. That will be our issue today, so if you have respiratory ailments, take it easy today, especially in the mid-morning and late afternoon.

What’s next?

Our next real rain chance is probably not until Monday, though we can’t entirely rule out a shower on Sunday or Sunday night either. Then we should settle into a more unsettled pattern next week with highs near or below normal (80s) and morning lows near or above normal (70s). Storm chances may peak Wednesday or Thursday but never completely shut off. More on this tomorrow.

In brief: Periods of heavy rain will track through Houston throughout the day today, especially along and north of I-10. Additionally, some strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon across the southern 2/3 of the area. Street flooding is a good bet today. Rain ends this evening with gusty winds overnight. But a stellar weekend awaits.

Today

So far this morning, heavy rainfall has been limited to the northern half of the Houston metro, this after some strong storms overnight brought numerous hail reports from Sugar Land through Missouri City and Pearland.

Areas between Cypress and Spring have seen 2 to 3 inches of rain since yesterday. The area that saw hail also received close to 1.5 inches of rain in many spots. Rain continues to jet along and north of Highway 59/I-69 in and west of Houston this morning and north of I-10 east of Houston. That’s going to be the general pattern for most of the day, where those areas see fairly persistent rainfall.

Severe weather risk

However, as we get into the late morning and afternoon hours, there will likely be at least a couple of more ambitious clusters of thunderstorms that develop south of those areas. This would be primarily along and south of I-10 across the Houston metro all the way down to the coast. Not to say we could not see a couple of these find their way north of the I-10 corridor into Liberty, Waller, or northern Harris County, but the severe weather focus today will be mostly south of there. Again, I-10 is not a magical barrier; it’s just a nice, easy demarcation line that most readers generally know.

As these storms wiggle through, any of them will be capable of producing 40 to 50 mph wind gusts, some large hail, and frequent lightning. As you get closer to, say, Freeport, Lake Jackson, Matagorda Bay, or as far south as Corpus Christi, there is also a little bit of “spin” in the atmosphere that could yield a storm that produces a tornado, so just be aware of that. The entire southern two-thirds of the area is in a marginal risk (level 1/5) primarily due to the hail risk, but also due to the wind and very isolated tornado risk.

Flooding risks

In terms of how much additional rain we see, the entire area away from the coast is under a Flood Watch from the National Weather Service in Houston, a slight risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center, and a Stage 1 Flood Alert here on Space City Weather.

What does that tell you? Street flooding is probably a good bet today. This is a good day to be weather aware if you have errands to run or appointments to tend to. Give yourself extra time to get where you need to go. This will be especially true in the second half of the day as the ground will be saturated, making some street flooding more likely.

How much additional rain should we expect? It will vary, but likely another 1 to 4 inches of rain through the duration of the event where it’s currently raining (as of 5:30 AM). South of those areas should see anywhere from a half-inch to 2 inches of rain depending on exactly how this afternoon’s thunderstorms align. The latest HRRR model’s depiction of additional rainfall through this evening is shown below. Don’t focus on specifics here, but you can see the general pattern of how things should flow.

The good news is that rain should be out of here tonight, so expect the rain to end from west to east from about 8 PM through 1 AM or so. Early evening plans will be dicey, but late evening plans may be ok. Just don’t drive through any residual flooded roads!

Eric will have another update on today’s weather situation by the afternoon.

Gusty winds

One last note: As the rain begins to wind down, and the front pushes through with the disturbance kind of wound up, we are going to see non-thunderstorm winds increase. This should be especially true near the coast and in the southern half of the area. Inland wind gusts should be on the order of 20 to 30 mph beginning after 6 PM. Some locally higher gusts are possible. Coastal wind gusts will be more like 35 to 45 mph, and gale warnings are posted for the bays and Gulf.

Winds should be at their gustiest from about midnight through 7 AM Saturday. Then, you’ll see them gradually subside through the day tomorrow.

Weekend

Other than the wind in the morning, tomorrow looks glorious with low humidity, sunshine, and highs in the mid-70s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. Sunday looks just as nice or better with more sun and highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Enjoy the early May, comfortable weekend spring fling!

Next week

Looking ahead, temperatures do warm up a good bit, back close to 90 degrees by the time we get to Tuesday or Wednesday. Believe it or not, another May cold front may be in the cards for later next week. Details forthcoming on that, but additional rain and storm chances may be in the cards around then as well.