Matt Lanza

In brief: Those gray skies are running out of time, Houston. We expect showers or light rain at times today with brightening skies on Saturday. The sun should return in all its glory on Sunday, with warmer temps, followed by a brief cooldown early next week. We return to 70 or so by mid to late next week.

Sorry for the delayed post this morning; I had a donuts morning with one of my kids, and while I love our audience, I also love donuts. Because, warm Shipley donuts. So, apologies, but surely you’ll understand.

It’s been a bit of dreary week, starting off on a cold, damp note, followed by a chilly Tuesday, a graying Wednesday, a damp Thursday, and now a cold, damp Friday. Thankfully, if you need a dose of sun in your life, you’ll be getting one soon.

Today

Dreary is the operative word. Though, I will say I saw blue sky poking through the overcast earlier. I’m not optimistic today though. Look for occasional light rain, drizzle, or passing showers in most of the area. Coastal areas today may see a steadier rain at times. Temps don’t budge a whole lot. We’re starting in the 40s and perhaps we’ll push 50 degrees in spots, especially south of Houston this afternoon. Generally, rain totals will be a tenth of an inch or less in most spots.

Saturday

Showers may linger through the overnight hours and into early Saturday morning. Most of the rain will end. We should see some brightening skies Saturday afternoon as well. If we get sunshine, we may push into the mid-60s. If we stay cloudy, we’ll maybe sneak above 60 degrees or so.

Sunday

We finally unstick this pattern Sunday. I would expect decreasing clouds, increasing sunshine, highs a bit warmer, in the upper-60s to low-70s (after morning lows in the 40s and 50s), and just an overall nicer day. Winds could become a bit gusty at times later Sunday or Sunday evening as a reinforcing dry cold front pushes in.

Monday & Tuesday

Back to cooler weather but with sunshine!

Morning lows will be in the 40s on Monday and 30s and 40s on Tuesday, followed by highs in the 50s to near 60 Monday and perhaps a bit warmer Tuesday.

Later next week

A warmer pattern establishes after Tuesday, with highs probably in the 70s on Wednesday and staying around 70 or so through next weekend.

Morning lows should creep back into the 50s and eventually the 60s. I would not be shocked to see some sea fog emerge at some point by next weekend. At this point, rain chances are mostly absent after this weekend, with the next hint in models holding off until at least next Sunday or Monday. Milder weather is probably going to linger a bit longer with the brunt of any cold directed into the Eastern U.S. over the next 10 days or so. We’ll see if that can change late in the week of the 15th.

In brief: Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to Houston on Saturday with a low-end (marginal, 1/5) severe weather risk. Any severe weather will be isolated. Much colder weather will follow Sunday with highs in the 50s. Periods of rain and temperatures in the 40s (!) on Monday. Nicer weather after Monday.

I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving, and a special thank you to those who were working during the holiday. We can speak graciously of our colleagues at the National Weather Service office or those on TV. But we know many others were needed at work too. So, thank you.

Fundraiser

Much like your fridge with leftovers, I imagine your inbox is stuffed with amazing deals from #brands today. Just don’t forget local and small businesses! And if you want some Houston-centric merchandise for yourself or family this holiday season, we are in the final days of our annual fundraiser now. The finish line hits Monday. Then we don’t get to bug you again until next November. If you feel compelled, we greatly appreciate your support. Thank you!

Today

Quiet weather is with us for one more day. Look for clouds to perhaps increase through the afternoon or evening hours as we begin to transition back to a warmer air mass ahead of tomorrow’s next front and storm system.

Saturday

Alright, the headline for Saturday is that the entire area is under a marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms.

Back on Monday, we were in a slight risk (2/5), so the setup this time around is a tinge less impressive. Just want to benchmark this. That said, here’s how it should play out.

Saturday morning: If you have plans in the morning hours tomorrow, a few showers, drizzle, or sprinkles are possible but nothing worse than that. The AM looks fine.

Saturday afternoon: Showers will become more scattered, especially north and west of Downtown Houston, with an isolated strong to severe storm possible after 2-3 PM or so. All modes of severe weather (strong winds, hail, isolated tornadoes) are in play Saturday but none looks especially likely. In most cases, storms will be benign with just thunder, lightning, and heavy downpours. But one or two could push severe levels.

Saturday evening: Isolated strong to severe storms will continue to be possible north and west of Houston but a squall line of widespread moderate thunderstorms should develop and track south and east after 8 to 10 PM or so, reaching the coast by about 2 to 3 AM. Within this line of storms could be some gusty winds to 40 mph or so. I think this is especially true around Galveston Bay or on the Island. But risk of tornadoes or hail should back off.

After 3 AM, the line of storms should push offshore and conditions will improve. Gusty north winds will follow, with gusts at times of 30 to 35 mph or even a little stronger on the coast.

Sunday

We’ll close the weekend on a bit of a chilly, raw note. Look for clouds to dominate, though I’ll hold out hope for at least a little sunshine in a few spots. Maybe. Temperatures will be steady in the low-50s. If we see some sun, we could pop into the mid-50s.

Monday

Our next storm system glides in Sunday night, delivering a wintry-type day Monday. Expect chilly temperatures, mostly in the 40s Monday. Some places may be lucky to get above 45 degrees. Additionally, rain. Look for periods of rain, showers, and probably even a couple rumbles of thunder around the area.

Rain totals are a little less confident of a forecast. These types of setups tend to favor the coastal areas, where perhaps 1 inch or more of rain is possible. However, some model guidance does include higher totals inland as well. For now, I would expect a quarter to half-inch on average with pockets of the area likely seeing 1 inch or more.

After Monday

Quieter weather follows Monday, with our next chance of rain perhaps Thursday or Friday. Tuesday and Wednesday morning will see lows in the 30s and low-40s, so it’ll be chilly. Highs will be in the 50s on Wednesday and back into the 60s on Thursday and Friday.

In brief: A high-end EF-1 and a low-end EF-2 tornado were confirmed today from damage surveys conducted by the National Weather Service northwest of Houston. The first occurred in Riata Ranch. The second was in Klein. Additional damage surveys may still be done to check for other tornadoes or to fine tune these paths.

Two confirmed tornadoes

The NWS Houston office went out and did the dirty work on damage surveys from Monday’s tornadoes. They confirmed two so far. The first was a high-end EF-1 that had maximum winds of 105 mph (corrected from the above graphic) in Riata Ranch and a path length of 2.6 miles. The second was a low-end EF-2 that hit the Klein area, with maximum winds of 115 mph (corrected from the above graphic) and a path length of 3.8 miles. I believe these are the first tornadoes in Harris County since just after last Christmas.

Riata Ranch tornado

The Riata Ranch tornado touched down just after 1:20 PM on Monday. For those unfamiliar, Riata Ranch is just east of Barker Cypress Road just south of 290. A radar capture from 1:23 PM on Monday shows the tornado developing. The first touchdown point occurred in Towne Lake, just off Tuckerton west of Barker Cypress.

Following radar, you are able to see the rotation track to just west of Barker Cypress at 290 by 1:26 PM. It seems that a debris signature (TDS) becomes evident on radar between 1:26-1:29 PM, which indicates a pretty healthy tornado in progress. This occurs as the original circulation begins to broaden out crossing 290. At this point, the tornado was lifting.

Indeed, the NWS found that the tornado dissipated around 1:28 PM at 290 and Barker Cypress.

Overall, the TDS on this one was very impressive, usually only the type of TDS I’ve seen in typically stronger tornadoes. This is likely indicative of the densely populated area it struck.

Klein tornado

We got a 10-to-15-minute break before the same supercell dropped another tornado. Around 1:41 PM, a new tornado dropped just east of Cutton Road along Louetta Road.

This one did not show quite as strong a TDS as the Riata Ranch tornado, despite being a little stronger. Nuance is a thing. It didn’t take long for it to show up, however, which happened around 1:47 PM. Notably, the debris signature from the Riata Ranch tornado does not appear to have dissipated entirely around this time, but it does show up nicely.

Notably, when you’re looking at these tornadic debris signatures, remember a radar beam doesn’t go out flat. It aims up, so at this distance, about 49 miles from the HGX radar in League City/Dickinson, we’re sampling what’s occurring about 3,500 feet up. So this indicates that the tornado was lofting debris several thousand feet up in the atmosphere. Overall, this was a very impressive event for Houston. We see tornadoes rather frequently here, but not usually this strong. Of the 78 tornadoes confirmed in Harris County since 2000, only 6 have been F/EF-2 or stronger. The Klein tornado now makes seven.

In brief: There is a low-end risk for a severe storm or two on Monday evening across the area as cooler, drier air builds in. Thanksgiving looks stunning. We take a peek at the longer range today, as the hype machine builds for early December cold. While we believe there is a potential strong shot of cold coming, we do not currently believe it will be a damaging cold air outbreak.

Happy Sunday! We’re interrupting on the weekend to fine tune a couple points from Friday’s forecast and to discuss some of the potential cold weather risk after Thanksgiving weekend.

Fundraiser

Our fundraiser continues through this week, and then we close the merch store and proverbial Venmo! Thank you again to all who have contributed or bought some holiday gifts for friends or family yourself. Ten years in on this, and we remain so grateful for your support!

Heat records

First off, Friday’s 88 degree high ended up a record for the date and is now Houston’s hottest temperature on record so late in the calendar year, besting November 15, 1978 for that honor. Secondly, our streak of 80 degree days ended unceremoniously yesterday, with Bush only hitting 79 degrees. The streak finishes at 10 consecutive days, the 6th longest on record for November-February, with all others occurring in early November.

At Hobby, the streak continues, with 82 degrees yesterday marking 11 straight days. We also hit 90 degrees on Friday there, a new record for so late in the season and tying several days for hottest on record in November. 90 degrees was last set at Hobby on November 16th this year. This is the 3rd longest streak of 80s at Hobby and the longest so late in the year.

I feel like we’re just getting used to this by now, but statistically, this mid to late-November stretch will end up a remarkable one.

Today

No issues today. Enjoy the sunshine. Highs will be in the upper 70s after a low in the 50s in many spots this morning.

Monday

We’ll start the day off mostly cloudy with a little more humidity and scattered showers developing. They’ll be off and on and mostly light throughout the day. The much-advertised thunderstorms will arrive in the Brazos Valley and Aggieland during the late afternoon, bringing a chance of strong storms. That will then slide south and east, arriving in the northwest suburbs of Houston by about early evening. Most activity will lift to the north from there, bringing more numerous early evening storms up into Montgomery and Walker Counties.

Then, the front itself pushes into the northwest suburbs with a line of thunderstorms after 8 or 9 PM. That will push across the Houston area over the next few hours, arriving at the coast by about 1 to 3 AM. Storms will be strong with some gusty winds and lightning possible, along with heavy rain. We are outlined in a marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe weather tomorrow, with a slight risk (2/5) up toward College Station.

Tuesday/Wednesday/Thanksgiving Day

Showers will probably linger in Brazoria and Matagorda Counties through morning on Tuesday. Slightly drier air and gradual clearing will allow temperatures to push back to near 80 Tuesday afternoon except where clouds and showers linger. A much stronger push of cool, dry air arrives on Wednesday, this without any rain. Holiday travel on Wednesday should have minimal disruption by car or probably by air with minimal disruptions at the Northeast hubs, Atlanta, and only some gusty winds in Chicago.

This should allow Thanksgiving morning lows to take a dip into the 40s almost everywhere. Thanksgiving Day looks perfect with sunshine and highs into the 60s.

Beyond Thanksgiving

The forecast gets sloppy next weekend with a chance of showers returning to the picture. Again, we are skeptical about this as it relates to the Houston area specifically. But suffice to say, there will at least be a chance in the forecast.

Beyond that, the European AI model has rankled some people over the last few days, as it has shown significant cold dumping into the Plains and eventually Texas. I’ve even seen the February 2021 freeze event thrown around (irresponsibly) on social media as an analog. Currently, the European AIFS model forecast shows temperatures as much as 15 to 20 degrees below normal (compared to 30 to 50 below normal in February 2021).

Doing some napkin math, this would probably yield upper 20s to low 30s in the Houston, cold but not alarming. Almost all other reliable model guidance is warmer than this. But let’s just say that, yes, our first freeze of the season is possible after Thanksgiving weekend. Will it be something we have to worry about beyond a light freeze? At this point I would say probably not. But we’ll of course keep watching trends. European AI modeling has done a great job with hurricanes but it has yet to truly prove itself in terms of temperature forecasting.