Matt Lanza

In brief: Tropical Depression 2 may become a tropical storm later today or tomorrow, but for Houston at this point we are not expecting significant impacts, anticipating that it will fall apart before arriving here. Still, we encourage folks to monitor the forecast over the next couple days in case anything should change. Otherwise, heat is the story this week, with a legitimate shot at 100 degrees, especially Wednesday.

Tropical Depression 2

Let’s get right down to business.

Tropical Depression 2 formed yesterday in the eastern Gulf. Over the next couple days, it’s expected to drift westward, becoming a tropical storm. Now, I’ll be the first to tell you that looking at this thing on satellite this morning, it’s not exactly looking healthy.

And, in fact, the vast majority of tropical modeling, as well as Google Deep Mind’s 1,000 member forecast ensemble keep TD 2’s intensity at or below middle grade tropical storm levels. In other words, we do not believe this is going to be a repeat of Beryl. Interestingly, if you look at the various ensembles, you also see a lot of them “losing” Tropical Depression 2 before it gets to Texas.

In other words, we are seeing the bulk of the modeling say that TD 2 is going to run its course before getting to Texas. The 5 to 10 percent or so that survive west of Louisiana are the ones coming to Texas. So it may look as if the modeling is all pointed right at Texas, but in reality, that’s mainly saying the remnant is. And when you look at the NHC forecast at the top, you’ll notice the intensity is dropped to depression when it makes it to Texas. Frankly, that may be generous given what we see this morning. It may be that this system ends up arriving as a shell of itself in Texas.

There are still a handful of model ensembles that track the system a little farther south, a scenario we won’t take off the table. But in those cases, it’s likely that the intensity of TD 2, or Bertha, would be capped by wind shear. And if that doesn’t do it, dry air that surrounds this thing on all sides probably will.

So what does it mean here in Houston?

As of today, impacts are expected to be minimal. Wind impacts at this point would be tropical depression or less. Marine impacts would be for some minor coastal flooding perhaps or just slightly higher tides. And rainfall impacts would also be minimal, with just a slightly increased chance of showers on Thursday or Friday perhaps.

That’s as of right this moment. Forecasts can and do change, and we encourage you to continue monitoring the forecast as the week progresses. If something notable changes this afternoon, we’ll chime in later today.

Hottest week of summer

Meanwhile, truthfully, the bigger story this week will be the heat. This is going to be our hottest week of summer so far. We have our best chance at 100 degrees beginning tomorrow and perhaps more likely on Wednesday.

We encourage folks to try not to go out exercising during the peak heat of the day, drink water, and just keep in mind that while your body adapts to summer heat, some days are just a little bit worse than others. That’s Tuesday and especially Wednesday. On the flip side, the humidity doesn’t look overly impressive. In fact, because of Tropical Depression 2, Houston may actually see some drier air filter in out of the northeast. That won’t make it feel gloriously comfortable, but it may allow for heat index values (or “real feel” temperatures) to be somewhat tolerable. It may also mean the difference between a heat advisory instead of an extreme heat warning.

After Friday

As noted earlier, the remnants of TD 2 could provide a slight bump in shower chances Thursday or Friday. After that, it looks like very standard summer here. We’ll probably have a couple thunderstorms each day but nothing significant. Temperatures will be hot but not extreme. And barring any change in pattern, it should be fairly calm.

In brief: We have an update on the situation west of Houston this morning. Additionally, we take a look at our lack of rain chances, the increasing heat, and the tropics today, all of which seem typical for late July.

Our thoughts remain with Hill Country and nearby areas impacted by flooding in recent days. While we are grateful at least that the human toll seems to be much less this time around, it’s still difficult to see unfold. This morning’s rains are to the west of the areas impacted yesterday, with numerous flood advisories and some flash flood warnings posted for places south of San Angelo.

This includes Ozona and Sonora, where 3 inches or more of rain has fallen overnight. Another inch or two is possible in some of these areas, so flash flooding remains a distinct possibility through midday.

No more chasing waterfalls

The wet pattern that Texas has been dealing with will finally exit the state this weekend. Locally, this means that our rain chances will remain quite miniscule over the next several days.

In fact, we may be lucky to see any rain at all over the next week. I don’t think we’ll hear a ton of complaints about this.

But the heat starts to creep creep

With rain chances in the proverbial gutter, this means that temperatures are going to begin to increase. On top of that, these temperatures will get a little bit of a boost as upper atmospheric high pressure flexes over Texas early to mid-week next week.

This means that temperatures, which jumped back into the mid-90s yesterday will probably stay there for a couple more days and then slowly trend toward the upper 90s. By the time we get to Tuesday or Wednesday, we could possibly be making a run closer to 100 degrees, but that’s still a bit of a longshot I think. Recent rains and wet soils will probably tamp down heat a little bit. Atmospheric moisture will be on the low side, but the humidity will still probably be elevated, as it typically is approaching August.

Somethin’ You Wanna Know

We’ll close with the topic of tropics.

The NHC continues with a 20 percent area in the northeast Gulf. This area, if it did develop, would likely be a lower-end storm and either hug the Gulf Coast or push east into the Atlantic. The other area in the deep Atlantic with a 10 percent probability of development is likely to be torn apart by wind shear later this weekend. In other words, we’re in pretty good shape. Let’s keep it going.

In brief: Hit or miss showers will continue across Houston into the weekend, with coverage slowly increasing each day. A more concentrated heavy rain/storm chance is in the cards Monday and Tuesday with some flash flooding possible. Temperatures heat up later next week and weekend.

Some parts of Houston are in the “rain o’clock” phase of summer, where you hit the right time of day, and the storms start to fire. Rain totals this week have been quite variable, with some places seeing nothing and others, like the East End through Galena Park and Cloverleaf seeing 2 to 4 inches of rain. As we head toward next week, more places will participate in rainfall once again.

Today and Saturday

Both today and tomorrow look fairly similar with isolated to perhaps scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing across the area. Once again, many locations will come up empty, but some could easily pick up a quick inch or two. Tomorrow may have slightly higher coverage of storms than today. Either way, outside of that it will be seasonably hot and humid with highs in the low-90s.

Sunday

More of the same is expected here, however coverage of storms on Sunday could be a tinge higher than Saturday. Highs will be near 90 degrees or in the low-90s.

Next week

Here’s where the pattern begins to get more active. As high pressure builds over the Northern Plains and Midwest, southeast Texas will be on the southern periphery of the high, meaning the door to Gulf moisture will be wide open.

The clockwise flow around high pressure basically allows anything underneath to move east to west, so this strong upper level storm system over the Deep South will act as an enhancement for thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. While the strongest “forcing” with this disturbance will go north of Houston, the combination of this, a stalled weak front, and a bunch of Gulf moisture will likely produce pockets of heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding early next week. The eastern part of the area is in a slight risk (level 2/4) for flooding risk on Monday, and it’s likely this will be expanded or pushed into Tuesday for us.

I would expect some level of our flood scale to go up for Monday and Tuesday, probably Stage 1, maybe Stage 2. Eric will have an update for you on Monday morning, possibly Sunday if our confidence is high.

Things should quiet down some after Tuesday, with perhaps even a couple days off from rain chances. This does mean temperatures should begin to heat up with mid-90s by later next week, and possibly a bit hotter by the weekend. Stay tuned.

In brief: Smoke and dust creating a hazy situation around Houston this weekend will likely continue into early next week. But also a slight change will allow for some minor rain chances to return after the weekend.

The weather in Houston can only be described right now as very typical late June or July. It’s hot and humid but not overly so. We have already seen some Saharan dust, but we’re also seeing a lot of haze aloft that is almost certainly related to ongoing Western U.S. wildfires.

This acrid looking mix of smoke, dust, and haze will persist through the weekend, only accentuated by a burst of Saharan dust by later Sunday or Monday.

Today & weekend

Not a whole lot of change in things expected here, with sun, heat, humidity, and haze. Saharan dust thickens up a bit as Sunday progresses. Shower chances are minimal. That’s about it. We’ll keep it simple today.

Next week

As we head into Monday and Tuesday, a sprawling area of upper-level high pressure is going to establish itself over the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, bringing a pretty hefty heat wave to parts of the Midwest, Mid-South, and East Coast. Houston will be positioned on the southwest periphery of that high pressure. For us, that does a couple things.

First, it should open the door to the Gulf a bit. This will allow for the typical splash and dash summer thunderstorms we get here in Houston to re-enter the picture by Tuesday or Wednesday. Second, it will allow for the Saharan dust plume to blow into the area early in the week. Smoke from the western wildfires should hopefully diminish some. Also, it means that if any tropical waves enter the Gulf, they could be pointed toward the Gulf Coast. By Wednesday or Thursday, that’s a possibility, and although development of any significance is not expected, it could help nudge up our rain chances a little for the middle to end of the week. Or it could mostly end up in Louisiana. Both are reasonable potential outcomes. We’ll watch this weekend to see how things go.

Either way, by our 250th birthday next weekend, we’ll probably see that Gulf connection back off a bit as high pressure shifts out of the Midwest, with somewhat hotter, drier weather returning to Texas.

Drought update

The rains of late have definitely done wonders for our drought situation in Texas. Most of the state is now free of drought, with the notable exception of the Panhandle and portions of northeast and interior central and south Texas. The last time the majority of Texas was free of “abnormally dry” or worse conditions was September of last year.

Lake Corpus Christi is about 33 percent full now, up from 14 percent a month ago. While Choke Canyon is still in very poor shape (below 10 percent full), the other reservoirs are picking up the slack and buying some time before what will hopefully be a wetter winter in South Texas. We shall see.