Matt Lanza

In brief: We expect some showers and thunderstorms on Saturday in Houston, a couple of which could be on the stronger side. Outside of that, we have nice weather to close the weekend, and another warming trend in store next week.

Got Valentine’s (or anti-Valentine’s) Day plans on Saturday? Be sure to include an umbrella as part of your fancy attire. We’ve got the details on some storms this weekend.

Today

Keep your eyes open for fog this morning. It’s a prevalent pest across the southeast half of the area, and it’s locally dense in spots. It will slowly lift through morning, but fog may cling to Galveston Island or around the bay for much of Friday. Otherwise, it’ll be warm and humid today with highs in the 70s to near 80 inland and cooler at the coast.

Saturday

Through midday Saturday, all looks well. A few sprinkles or showers, as well as some continued fog is a possibility but otherwise it’ll be fine. Round one of showers or a few thunderstorms may arrive around mid to late afternoon. None of these are expected to be significant. It’s the second round that arrives in the evening, probably between 6 and 10 PM or so that may have some noisy, stronger storms.

The entire region is carpeted in a marginal risk, level 1/5, for severe weather tomorrow, which generally means lower-end coverage of severe storms. Many locations will hear thunder, but only one or two may see a severe storm with gusty winds. Storms should exit the coast around or before midnight, ending any severe threat, The chance of a severe storm may be highest north of I-10 tomorrow.

In addition, some locally heavy rain is likely tomorrow, with a few spots perhaps seeing 2 inches of rain, while others see a quarter inch. Basically, have an umbrella, and if you hear thunder, retreat to a safe indoor location.

Otherwise, look for clouds, some sun, and some fog with highs in the 70s.

Sunday & Washington’s Birthday

We should clear out and have a picture-perfect Sunday and Presidents’ Day Monday. Sunday looks glorious with sunshine and highs in the low-70s, although a bit on the breezy side at times with north winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph or so. Monday morning will start in the 40s and 50s, warming into the 70s again with pleasant humidity and sunshine.

Rest of next week

To be honest, next week looks a bit like this week, with temps warming up again into the 80s probably, along with slowly building humidity. We will probably see our next front sometime near next weekend or just beyond. Timing is suspect right now. That next front could have a tinge more punch of cooler air behind it, but nothing like a freeze or anything.

In brief: Dang nice, Houston.

Today through Sunday

This would be something of an unseasonably warm weekend anytime it occurs in winter, and to some it would be considered quite nice. After the chill of the last couple weeks, this weekend will probably feel nice to almost all. Sunshine, temps in the 70s (maybe 80?), and generally low humidity will continue.

Note how much cooler it is at the coast, with Galveston likely staying below 70 degrees. Water temperatures near the coast are in the mid-50s, which has converted the coastal Gulf into a localized air conditioning unit.

These will rebound quickly over the next week, but the combo of cold water and warm air may produce fog by Monday or Tuesday, and it will allow the island to be significantly cooler (10-15 degrees) than inland locations.

Next week

Our warmest days look to be Monday through Wednesday. Eric paid homage to the 70s yesterday, but it may be the 80s that we speak of on a couple days next week (and perhaps today). Depending on what model ensemble you choose, there’s a 20 to 40 percent chance we do it on Wednesday.

We should see shower chances infiltrate the picture beginning Tuesday however, and a weak-ish cold front looks to sneak in just after that. But it appears any cooldown will be fairly short lived, and it may be back to the 70s or 80s after a couple cool days off.

Drought update

Eric discussed the rain situation earlier this week. The latest drought update was released on Thursday and shows a small expansion of drought.

Keep in mind that this does not include the rain we saw on Tuesday (the report ends at 7 AM Tuesday). And some places saw a fair bit of helpful rain. We’ll have to see if we can cash in next week with our couple of chances. As nice as this weekend is, we probably need a couple days of soaking rain to help us out right now. If you follow weather folks on social media, you’re probably beginning to see chatter about a developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific as we head toward spring. Historically, that can skew the odds in favor of a wetter spring here in Texas, but we’re still a good way off before that would kick into gear. Something for us to keep tabs on though.

In brief: Another possible hard freeze awaits Houston on Sunday morning with colder air starting once more today. Remember your plants, pets, pipes, and neighbors. However, it does look like we swing back warmer next week for a time before our next chance of rain around midweek.

If you enjoyed the cold temperatures earlier this week, we have good news for you. If you hate the cold, we also have good news for you. Let’s just call it a good news Friday!

Basic cold weather preps again this weekend

We tend to treat the cold with some cheekiness, but it’s obviously always serious business here in Texas when it gets this cold. Saturday night and Sunday morning is the timeframe you want to really take some precautions on the extra sensitive plants, keep the pipes wrapped, and absolutely bring the pets inside.

Today

This morning may see some mixed sun and clouds before we likely go mainly cloudy for the afternoon. There is a chance that we’ll see the back edge of the clouds begin to push through the region by late afternoon and evening, followed by a clear and colder overnight. Highs will be in the 50s today as long as we get some breaks in the clouds or maybe they aren’t super thick. Otherwise, we’ll say upper-40s to low-50s.

Saturday

With clear skies will come colder temperatures tonight. Lows will be in the 30s with a light freeze possible outside the 610 Loop. Temps may dip into the 20s in some far-flung rural areas in Liberty, Walker, northern Waller, Austin, or Colorado Counties. A cold weather advisory has been posted for the entire area for Saturday morning.

Saturday itself should be a blustery but nice winter day with sunshine and highs in the 40s. The wind will make it feel more like the 30s however, even with the sunshine.

Sunday

We would advise cold weather preparations, which most of you already implemented this week anyway to continue on Sunday morning. Lows should drop into the 20s area wide.

A few locations may even dip into the teens in rural or sheltered spots. There is even some chance that a few places in the area check in as cold on Sunday morning than they did at the peak of the cold earlier this week. Coastal areas will drop to near freezing. A freeze watch is in effect.

The rest of Sunday looks glorious with sunshine, lighter winds, and highs in the 50s. Just an absolutely picture-perfect winter day.

Next week

We should continue the warming trend Monday with sunshine and highs in the 60s. A few freezing temps are possible in outlying areas one last time Monday morning, with 30s or low 40s elsewhere. Tuesday should be even warmer with highs near 70 degrees and lows in the 40s and 50s. The forecast looks a smidge trickier later next week with a chance of showers or storms and a cold front either later Tuesday or Wednesday, followed by more seasonably cold air than the unseasonable cold we saw this week to close out the first week of February.

In brief: The forecast for Houston remains on track overnight, as freezing temperatures enter the western fringe of Greater Houston. We expect periods of rain, freezing rain, and sleet overnight with falling temperatures and isolated thunder. Roads will likely be sloppy in spots, especially north and west of Houston. We encourage folks to heed the advice of local officials and stay off the roads tomorrow, at least until they can be evaluated and assessed.

Good evening everyone. I just want to shout out Eric for doing virtually everything himself this week, as I have been quite active with preparations for this storm. Winter storms are always challenging to forecast, and this one has been no different. But we’re almost into primetime now, so let’s look at where we stand heading into the overnight.

Temperatures

Generally, the entire Houston Metro area remains above freezing as of 10:45 this evening. Outlying areas west of the city are dropping below freezing now, particularly near Sealy, Bellville, Navasota as examples.

Temperatures will continue to drop, with the freezing line probably entering the western Metro area around 1 AM or so, the I-45 corridor north of I-10 around 3-4 AM, and the Inner Loop by 7 AM. Note that the freezing line will push farther south than it will east faster, so places like Bay City and Wharton will drop below freezing before places like Humble as an example.

Then on Sunday, expect temperatures to hold near freezing all day from Houston north and west and probably around 32 to 34 degrees south and east.

Freezing rain & sleet

The area has been in a lull this evening with sprinkles, drizzle, fog, mist, a couple showers, but nothing else really. That will change over the next few hours. Expect showers to become more numerous in the area with a period of moderate to heavy precipitation arriving in the Houston area between 1 and 6 AM. It won’t be precipitating heavily during that entire time, but there will be areas that see moderate rain and freezing rain or even moderate sleet as well.

The heaviest of the precipitation will thankfully pass to our north. However, it will be this area of rain or freezing rain or sleet that begins to cause problems on area roadways. This will be especially true north and west of Houston. I think most places are going to see around 0.10 of ice or perhaps a bit less, especially if sleet overtakes freezing rain as the dominant form of precipitation. There will likely be patches in northern Wharton, Austin, Waller, Fort Bend, western Harris, Montgomery, Walker, Grimes, and Washington Counties that see perhaps 0.1 to 0.2 inches of ice. At those levels, we’ll almost certainly see very slick bridges and overpasses, as well as freeway flyovers. Surface streets will take a little longer to freeze, but I would expect patchy black ice on area roads late tonight and Sunday morning.

In addition to the precipitation, there will likely be at least a few lightning strikes overnight. With a wicked temperature inversion (temperatures warming with altitude), some of that thunder may be extra loud. I don’t think the excitable dog index gets much higher than a 2 or 3 out of 10 due to mostly isolated strikes.

The message we’ve been echoing from our local elected officials and emergency management agencies is that we strongly advise you stay off the roads overnight and on Sunday morning. Let officials check the situation out in the morning. If it’s not as bad as feared, wonderful. But if it’s a slopfest, we need to keep those roads wide open for first responders who also will need to slow down and drive carefully. Stay safe.

Other notes

Winds will be blustery on Sunday. Expect gusts of 20 to 25 mph creating wind chills in the teens, especially in the afternoon. I am not optimistic that we’re going to see much sunshine tomorrow. In fact, the cloud cover may linger into tomorrow night helping keep temperatures milder than forecast, likely in the mid-20s in most of the metro area. We should see the sun return by Monday afternoon. With clearer skies, it’s plausible that Tuesday morning will actually be colder than Monday in Houston, not by a ton but at least a little bit. You’ll want to maximize your cold weather protections through Tuesday.

Eric will be up early on Sunday to give you an update on the latest. Stay safe, and stay warm!