Matt Lanza

In brief: Today, we tackle some colder weather for Houston this weekend, but most importantly, we look at the prospects of snow during the Texans/Patriots game in Foxborough on Sunday. We also have the latest on next week’s rain chances and some signs of colder weather again next weekend-ish.

Texans Outlook

We’re going to start in New England rather than in Texas today. Obviously, many of you are amped up for the Texans/Patriots game, with the Texans having a chance to do something exciting and positive for both the city and America in general. We are too. We’re also pretty intrigued by the forecast. The 50,000 foot view here is that a storm system is likely to pass through on Saturday, with rain showers ending as snow showers across southern New England. Then, on Sunday another storm system is going to develop off the Southeast coast, perhaps bringing some snow as far south as southern Georgia or even the Florida Panhandle. As that moves offshore and to the northeast, it will likely graze southeastern New England. It will be a close call for the Texans game.

A couple reasons for this. First, the storm track is not set in stone yet. A more suppressed storm would keep most precip closer to Cape Cod or coastal Massachusetts than Foxborough (remember, Gillette Stadium is closer to Providence than Boston). But if the current models are correct, Foxborough will be in the sweet spot for developing snow late on Sunday afternoon. Most importantly, timing is everything. Models have varied a bit on the snow’s onset for Sunday. Kickoff is 2 PM CT/3 PM ET, and it appears that snow develops in that window. It could be a situation where the game starts out with nothing worse than flurries, but the second half gets a little gnarly. Is that good for the Texans? The offense and fans should enjoy temperatures that may actually be about 4 to 8 degrees warmer than in Pittsburgh (mid to upper 30s) despite the snow, with lighter winds (5 to 10 mph). The defense? I’m pretty sure you could put them in a hockey rink on roller-skates and they’d still be scary good. Whatever happens: Let’s go Texans!

Today

Back to our local weather, it’s a cool start again today, but we’re heading up, up, up this afternoon. With sunshine, we should push into the low-70s.

Weekend

Another uneventful cold front pushes into the area tonight with maybe just a passing shower south and east of Houston. That will push offshore overnight, and much cooler weather will drop back in for Saturday. Morning lows will be in the 40s and 50s, followed up by breezy conditions and highs in the mid-50s at best. Saturday will be sunny once again.

Our coldest night of the current stretch so far will come tomorrow night into Sunday morning with lows in the 30s across the area. We will likely see temperatures near the freezing mark across northern parts of the area, as well as the usually sheltered colder spots out toward Bellville and Sealy and into Fort Bend and Wharton Counties, as well as in Liberty County. Sunday itself looks like a lovely winter day with sun and highs in the 50s.

Next week

There are no big forecast changes for next week. Monday starts quiet and sunny for those able to honor and enjoy the MLK holiday. Highs will be in the 60s after morning lows in the 30s and 40s. Clouds move in Tuesday, along with cooler temperatures. And the prospect of a widespread rain remains somewhat in the cards for Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned. Extreme and severe drought has expanded over the last week in the Houston area. We need rain.

Thereafter, we’ll watch for colder risks next weekend, possibly some of the coldest air of winter (though a Texas freeze event does *not* look likely at this time). Speaking of cold…

A message from Reliant

As Eric explained in yesterday’s post, January has been warm so far but cooler temps coming our way this weekend! At Reliant, we’re sharing a few energy-efficiency tips and simple home improvement tasks that can keep your heating system from working harder than it needs to and keep you from spending more on winter electricity bills.

Try space heaters in high-traffic rooms. Lower your thermostat and use an energy-efficient space heater in rooms where you spend the most time.

Check your thermostat. If you have an electric heater, set the thermostat to 68 degrees while you’re awake. Lower it and add an extra blanket while you sleep to save energy.

Use your drapes. Thermal drapes can help block drafts and retain heat, especially on older windows. Open south-facing curtains during the day to let in sunlight and close them at night to trap warmth.

Invest in smart plugs and smart power strips. These allow you to control the power supply to devices remotely via a smartphone app. This way, you can easily shut off power to devices not in use, even when you’re not at home.

Layer up. Reach for a sweater or blanket before reaching for the thermostat. Weather-appropriate clothes help reduce the demand for heat. Plug in your electric blanket and stay warm for around 25 cents a day.

Install insulation. While more of a long-term project, you can regulate your home’s temperature and reduce heating costs by adding insulation.

Weatherstrip exterior doors and windows. With a couple of hours’ work, you can seal out the cold and save up to 10 percent on total energy costs.

In brief: Houston’s weather will behave more typical of January this week, with temperatures both a little cooler and a little warmer than normal at times. Thankfully, it looks to remain on the quieter side of things overall.

First off, you don’t always get Matt on a Monday, but that’s because I’m letting Eric sleep in after setting a personal record in yesterday’s Houston Marathon! What a day for a run, what a day for some new course records. But congratulations to Eric on the achievement, and congratulations to those of you who did any of the events yesterday!

Today

We have a fair bit of middle and upper level cloud cover passing through the region today, so it’ll be one of those “sunny in name only” days. Look for intervals of sun and clouds. Temperatures should manage about 58 to 61 degrees this afternoon on average. Winds will be on the lighter side.

For those of y’all watching or going to the Texans game in Pittsburgh tonight, it looks chilly and breezy. If you watched the games in Philly or New England yesterday, you saw the winds and their impacts. In Pittsburgh, winds will be lightening up this evening, with temperatures falling from the mid to upper-30s to the low or mid-30s during the game. Go Texans!

Tuesday

This is our first kinda-sorta interesting weather day this week. The overall picture is straightforward: We’ll continue with these higher clouds. Temperatures should be a couple degrees cooler tomorrow, as cloud cover may be more prevalent. We will probably either squeeze out a couple showers or some virga (rain that evaporates before reaching the ground). However, with the cooler temperatures and relatively drier air, even with temperatures in the 50s, I would not be at all shocked if someone tags us on social media saying they see sleet/ice pellets at their house, particularly closer to Sealy or the Brazos Valley. There would be zero impacts, but I’m just noting that!

Wednesday

Ahead of our next front, we warm up on Wednesday with temperatures deep into the 60s and perhaps a bit more sunshine.

A cool front hits the area on Wednesday evening, so winds may pick up a little bit overnight (20-30 mph or so). Otherwise, the front should come through with minimal impacts.

Thursday into the weekend

We’ll cool off a bit on Thursday behind the front with highs probably in the 50s across the area and sunshine! Friday looks delightful, with more sun and highs in the 60s. Another front hits the area on Saturday. There’s a little uncertainty on whether or not we can squeeze out a few rain drops or (again) ice pellets with this as it passes through. But even if we do, any precip would be very, very light. Temperatures should again cool down with highs near 60 or in the 50s Saturday, and then low-60s on Sunday.

Overall, this looks like fine, mostly typical January weather for Houston after what has been quite a warm stretch.

In brief: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely today, with a couple storms possibly becoming a little on the stronger to severe side. Cooler air follows this weekend, along with breezy conditions again. Temps stay more seasonable into next week.

Today & Saturday

The area is highlighted in a marginal (1/5) and slight (2/5) risk for severe storms today, with the higher risks the farther north you go.

Today’s severe threat is not a slam dunk case but rather somewhat of a conditional case. In other words, not everyone is going to see severe weather, but if the right set of circumstances can come together, we will see a couple severe storms, particularly north of Houston. All severe modes are on the table today, but gusty winds and potential hail seem like the higher risks. The tornado risk has been highlighted more into northern Louisiana.

Look for scattered showers to pop up over the next few hours this morning. Round one of storms would potentially occur between about 11 AM and 4 PM with isolated storms lifting northward from Harris County or Waller County into Grimes, Montgomery, Walker, Liberty, and San Jacinto Counties. Those are the storms that could turn strong to severe in a couple locations. Things should quiet down before a broken line of thunderstorms moves across the entire region this evening, probably before midnight. With those storms, we don’t expect severe weather but we will probably see some gusty winds and lightning. Also, given that it’s a broken line of storms, some of you may not see anything at all. Let’s hope most of us get a little rain today, as we need it!

It’ll turn breezy tonight behind that front. The winds may lag the line of storms by a few hours, but by Saturday morning we should see 30-35 mph wind gusts across most of the area. A few 40 mph gusts are possible Saturday with the initial onset of winds. Winds should slow down a bit in the afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, expect cooler temperatures. After mid to upper 70s today, we’ll drop into the 60s tonight and 50s for most of tomorrow.

Sunday’s Houston Marathon

For those of you all running the Houston Marathon (good luck, Eric!!), your race time forecast is temperatures around 42 to 45 degrees at 7 AM, warming to 52 to 55 degrees by midday. Temps may be slower to warm up if cloud cover sticks around too, which is a distinct possibility at this time. Winds should be out of the north around 5 to 8 mph, with perhaps a couple of gusts up to 10 to 15 mph. I am guessing that miles 12 to 18 could be mildly irritating with the wind in your face much of the time. But thankfully it should not be too terribly strong.

Rest of Sunday and next week

No serious weather concerns will be with us into next week. It looks like we’ll see temperatures a bit more seasonable as well. Highs will generally be in the 60s. We could see lows in the 30s on Monday morning, but aside from that, we’ll probably see mostly 40s for lows.

In brief: Houston is back to more classic December fare today, with low clouds, a gusty wind, and temps in the 40s. We’ll have a couple chilly nights tonight and tomorrow night before we make yet another run toward 80 by Friday. New Year’s plans look delightful, with no weather concerns at all right now.

Whew! It feels quite different outside this morning. Here’s a map of our 24-hour temperature changes.

This is our first morning in the 40s since December 20th. In that stretch, we’ve had 8 days in the 80s and 1 day near 80 (79° on Christmas Eve). Only 2012 and 2021 saw more 80-degree December days. We also set or tied 6 record highs in that stretch, hitting 84° on Sunday, our 2nd warmest December day on record. But that’s done for now. And so we discuss cool temperatures.

Today and Tuesday

That wind is going to remain with us most of this morning. By afternoon, it will begin to wind down, though it’ll remain a bit breezy. Gusts have been north of 50 mph at Hooks Airport in Tomball and in Galveston, 48 mph at Hobby, and 40 mph at Bush. Temperatures won’t go very far today. If the low clouds can clear out this afternoon, we’ll attempt to get into the low-50s as the models suggest. If the low clouds stay put, I may be apt to undercut model guidance and say we limp into the upper-40s at best.

Tonight will be cold, and there is a chance that a few spots get down around the freezing mark. It will probably just be the Conroes and isolated pockets in the Brazos Valleys of the world that get there thanks to a continued breeze and continued clouds. But either way, expect 30s away from the coast, a few low 30s north and west and 40 to low 40s at the coast. Tomorrow night will be a bit colder.

Tuesday looks splendid with sunshine developing. We should easily push into the 50s with lighter winds. Thanks to those clear skies and lighter winds, Tuesday night should be a bit colder than tonight.

Expect more 30s area-wide and a chance of a light freeze creeping closer than Conroe, perhaps in some of the more wooded areas in Montgomery, Liberty, and northern Harris Counties or isolated rural pockets of Fort Bend and Wharton Counties.

New Year’s Eve & New Year’s Day

We start to turn the corner Wednesday back upward into the 60s. Thursday may even push close to or past 70 degrees. For most NYE festivities on Wednesday, it looks great: Sunny and pleasant for the kiddos celebrating Noon Years and clear skies, light winds, and evening temps in the 50s, dropping into the 40s around or after Midnight. Enjoy!

Friday into the weekend

Temperatures should peak on Friday, as we’ll make yet another run toward 80 degrees. It’s probably notable that most of the area has not seen any appreciable rainfall since the beginning of December, which likely isn’t hurting these temps at all.

Whatever the case, the forecast trends a bit less confident beyond Friday, with some models indicating a bit of a small cool down, while others say Friday won’t be our last attempt to hit 80 degrees. Stay tuned.