Matt Lanza

In brief: A humidity front pushed through overnight, which will allow today to be significantly less humid and a couple degrees cooler. Humidity does return heading toward next week. While we are continuing to track a possible cold front later next week, confidence remains quite low in what it will actually do for the Houston area, other than lowering high temperatures a bit.

Just as a reminder, in case you missed it, we did make an important comment about hurricane season in Texas yesterday. We also have big app update news!

On to the forecast.

Today

Do you feel less humidity today? You should. A weak little boundary pushed in out of the north and east overnight, and with perhaps the exception of the extreme south and west parts of the area, it should be noticeably less humid today. Dewpoints are running about 5 to 10 degrees lower than this same time yesterday, meaning it feels that much more comfortable.

It will remain hot for sure, so look for highs in the low-90s. Thankfully not as hot as yesterday’s 97 degrees. But that humidity will make it feel far less painful regardless.

Weekend

The humidity will slowly return this weekend, especially on Sunday. But otherwise, it’ll be more of the same: low 90s, maybe a few mid 90s, and sun and clouds. Rain chances, while not zero look to remain fairly low.

Early to mid next week

The late summer party continues early next week, with heat and a slight chance of a storm on Monday. By Tuesday, a cold front is going to work across part of the state. Our modeling confidence drops off beyond that.

Mid to late next week

Either the front is going to stall west of Houston keeping us warm and humid (80s) with thunderstorm chances. Or the front is going to slowly push through the Houston area bringing in less humid and pleasant weather with thunderstorm chances.

Let’s diagnose this a little further.

If you look at the European ensemble’s probability of highs near 90 degrees, you’d see Houston generally running at 70 to 90 percent odds most days through Tuesday. By Wednesday, those odds drop to 50 to 70 percent, Thursday’s odds are 20 to 50 percent, and Friday’s odds (shown here) drop to about 10 to 30 percent.

This is the under the hood element of the models we will look at to say, “Alright, you’re forecasting a certain value, but what does it actually mean the probability of X, Y, or Z is?” In this case, we have a decent signal that the odds of 90 degree heat are dropping through later next week. So, we at least can say that with some confidence. Will we get the full-frontal experience (rated G for Great)? That remains TBD. At this time, models want to keep our precipitable water levels pretty elevated into next weekend, which I would say is a proxy for higher humidity.

So sitting here today, I would expect declining temps but maybe not necessarily declining humidity, at least not substantially so later next week. That said, eventually one of these things is going to break through and allow lows in the 60s or 50s. It’s a matter of when, not if, and there’s still at least some chance next week’s front is the one. I’m just not terribly confident in that today.

At the least, we should all see a bit of rain next week, although the highest totals will probably stay toward Hill Country and North Texas.

We will have more on all this Monday!

In brief: After some locally heavy rain south of Houston on Thursday, we begin to revert back to strong late summer heat with mid to upper 90s back in action this weekend through early next week. Maybe we can disrupt the party a bit later next week, but it does not exactly look cool.

As Eric properly called yesterday, rain did impact much of the area south of I-10. A few locations picked up as much as 2 to 3 inches of rain, with the “official” big winner being a gauge along Cloud Bayou just south of Santa Fe which saw 2.68 inches.

Yesterday’s 88 degrees was the least hot day at Hobby Airport since September 1st, when we only hit 87 degrees. Congrats to those that saw the rain, as today and the next several days will see less of it, along with plenty of heat.

Today

Shower chances today will not be zero, but they will be highest well south of the Houston area, down toward Corpus Christi and South Texas. We will likely tack on somewhere between 4 to 7 degrees from yesterday’s high temperatures, pushing us back to the mid-90s with sun and clouds.

Weekend

We’ll continue to see low-grade rain chances persist this weekend, while the vast majority of the area will continue with a mix of sun, clouds, and high heat for late September. Highs will be in the mid-90s with a few upper-90s peppered about. This will begin to bump up against record highs which are generally 98 to 100 this time of September.

Early next week

The heat should peak around Monday or Tuesday in Houston with mid to upper 90s likely. The record highs of 100 will be safe, but barely. Storm chances may increase some later Monday or especially Tuesday as a cool front gets into North Texas. Unfortunately, it falls short of making it to Houston but having it in the neighborhood should mean we are vulnerable to some showers or storms, especially northwest of Houston. That said, don’t expect a soaking for most of the area.

Later next week

The heat may attempt to relax a bit here, nudging back into the low to mid 90s. Rain chances don’t appear especially high at this time. Overall, it will feel more like June than September for the foreseeable future. One day we will have more positive news for real!

In brief: Houston’s storm pattern may tick up a little on Saturday as the Gulf opens the doors a little wider. But Sunday, Labor Day, and most of next week should feature very typical September weather for the Houston area.

Back to regularly scheduled summer in Houston, as we return to a more standard early September pattern of daily storm chances, moderate heat, and, of course, humidity. Let’s check in on how the region fared over the Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday period for rainfall.

If you were lucky, you saw a cooling downpour or two. If you weren’t, well, we apologize. But most of the area at least saw a little rain, and while that may not erode developing drought concerns, hopefully some additional rains fall the next few days. But also note how close it was to being a much, much different story.

Today

We’ve already got a number of showers peppering the radar this morning. Most gauges have only seen a few hundredths of an inch of rain, but some spots should see more over the next few hours. We may see a bit of a lull around late morning and then more scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Highs should still manage to make the lower 90s this afternoon.

Saturday

Tomorrow will be a slightly more interesting day on the storm chance front. Edouard’s remnant “spin” will shift southwest of the area toward South Texas, which should open up a slightly stronger “fetch” off the Gulf. This, coupled with some upper level impulses probably upgrades our coverage of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. If today is isolated to scattered, tomorrow is more like scattered to numerous in terms of coverage. Or that’s what I think looking at things this morning.

Any downpours will be capable of producing torrential rainfall, so watch for some localized street flooding. Highs may reach the low 90s, but if storms get going a little sooner, we may only get to around 90 degrees.

Sunday

Edouard’s remnants are gone gone on Sunday. This should allow us to dial back storm coverage a bit, back to the isolated to scattered bucket. Highs should be back in the low 90s.

Next week

I don’t foresee a ton of variability next week as it stands right now. Labor Day should be a lot like Sunday I think, with isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday look fairly similar. Each day should feature the requisite mixture of clouds and sun, with highs in the low to perhaps middle 90s.

The good news is that the tropics are on holiday right now, something I discussed over at The Eyewall last evening. Let’s keep it going.

In brief: Some of Houston saw rain yesterday. Many of you did not. At least the slight chance of rain will stick with us into next week. But aside from that and “less hot” temperatures, not much is changing here. Summer doldrums continue.

I borrowed from poet Mark Van Doren for our title today. Though the drought has not been that long, it has felt like it’s been a while. So who’s happy this morning? Some of you? None of you? Surely someone got rain yesterday. Indeed, showers and storms did push through parts of the area on Thursday.

The max totals in the area occurred just east of Magnolia, which was estimated to see north of 2 inches of rain. A gauge just north of IAH Airport saw nearly 1.5 inches of rain. It missed the airport gauge (which got a whopping 0.02″) by about 2 miles, just to give you a sense of the hit/miss nature of this stuff.

The good news is that rain chances aren’t quite finished, but the bad news is that they aren’t going to get a whole lot better either.

Today

An additional shower or thunderstorm may pop up this afternoon or evening in the area. It’s probably going to be a bit like yesterday in that many places won’t see rain but a few places will see some healthy downpours. We could also see the storms pulse deeper into the evening hours, sort of like yesterday also. Otherwise, it should be sunny and hot today with highs in the upper 90s. We’ve taken a little bit of edge off the heat at least.

Weekend

As an aside, it feels so odd to me that this weekend isn’t Labor Day weekend. But the calendar does what the calendar does. Regardless, it will still feel like August, with sun, clouds, at least a chance of a passing downpour, and highs in the mid to upper 90s.

Early next week

It looks like the weather will continue very steady state for the first half of the week. Expect sun, a few clouds, mid to upper 90s, and at least a slight shower chance. Rain chances may nudge up just a hair on Tuesday, but I wouldn’t go turning the sprinklers off at this point.

Later next week

I don’t really foresee a whole lot changing later next week. We seem sort of entrenched in this hot but not crazy hot, dry but not zero chance of rain situation. We really do need the rain though. Yesterday’s updated drought monitor report showed the Houston area going from near 0 drought to 43 percent drought coverage. That’s a huge leap over a week.

This can be classified as a bit of a “flash drought,” which tends to happen very fast later in summers that transition from wet to dry. To be honest, it’s kind of fortunate it has not been hotter this summer, but a late start to the summertime “death ridge” certainly helped matters. Of course, the question now is whether or not September ends up just miserable because of this. A question we’ll ponder in the days ahead. On the bright side, the tropics remain quiet. Check The Eyewall later for any updates.