Matt Lanza

In brief: Houston is back to more classic December fare today, with low clouds, a gusty wind, and temps in the 40s. We’ll have a couple chilly nights tonight and tomorrow night before we make yet another run toward 80 by Friday. New Year’s plans look delightful, with no weather concerns at all right now.

Whew! It feels quite different outside this morning. Here’s a map of our 24-hour temperature changes.

This is our first morning in the 40s since December 20th. In that stretch, we’ve had 8 days in the 80s and 1 day near 80 (79° on Christmas Eve). Only 2012 and 2021 saw more 80-degree December days. We also set or tied 6 record highs in that stretch, hitting 84° on Sunday, our 2nd warmest December day on record. But that’s done for now. And so we discuss cool temperatures.

Today and Tuesday

That wind is going to remain with us most of this morning. By afternoon, it will begin to wind down, though it’ll remain a bit breezy. Gusts have been north of 50 mph at Hooks Airport in Tomball and in Galveston, 48 mph at Hobby, and 40 mph at Bush. Temperatures won’t go very far today. If the low clouds can clear out this afternoon, we’ll attempt to get into the low-50s as the models suggest. If the low clouds stay put, I may be apt to undercut model guidance and say we limp into the upper-40s at best.

Tonight will be cold, and there is a chance that a few spots get down around the freezing mark. It will probably just be the Conroes and isolated pockets in the Brazos Valleys of the world that get there thanks to a continued breeze and continued clouds. But either way, expect 30s away from the coast, a few low 30s north and west and 40 to low 40s at the coast. Tomorrow night will be a bit colder.

Tuesday looks splendid with sunshine developing. We should easily push into the 50s with lighter winds. Thanks to those clear skies and lighter winds, Tuesday night should be a bit colder than tonight.

Expect more 30s area-wide and a chance of a light freeze creeping closer than Conroe, perhaps in some of the more wooded areas in Montgomery, Liberty, and northern Harris Counties or isolated rural pockets of Fort Bend and Wharton Counties.

New Year’s Eve & New Year’s Day

We start to turn the corner Wednesday back upward into the 60s. Thursday may even push close to or past 70 degrees. For most NYE festivities on Wednesday, it looks great: Sunny and pleasant for the kiddos celebrating Noon Years and clear skies, light winds, and evening temps in the 50s, dropping into the 40s around or after Midnight. Enjoy!

Friday into the weekend

Temperatures should peak on Friday, as we’ll make yet another run toward 80 degrees. It’s probably notable that most of the area has not seen any appreciable rainfall since the beginning of December, which likely isn’t hurting these temps at all.

Whatever the case, the forecast trends a bit less confident beyond Friday, with some models indicating a bit of a small cool down, while others say Friday won’t be our last attempt to hit 80 degrees. Stay tuned.

In brief: A warming trend takes over today in Houston with 60s likely. Rain showers or an isolated thunderstorm and areas of fog arrive tomorrow for some, not all of the area, while a very warm day sets up on Thursday. A cool front will disrupt the warming trend Friday before we surge upward again. Record highs will be at risk next week in Houston.

We’re starting off warmer this morning. In most cases, we’re running about 8 to 12 degrees warmer than Monday morning at the same time.

Tuesday

Warmer will indeed be the theme today. While it should be sunny today, there will be a fair bit of high cirrus around to dim the sun at times. Otherwise, we’ll manage 60s this afternoon and a generally lovely late autumn day.

Wednesday and Thursday

Wednesday looks like our best chance at scattered showers over the next week or so. A lot of folks will see nothing. But in general, expect low clouds, some areas of fog, and scattered showers or even a rogue thunderstorm tomorrow. Highs will shoot up to about 70 degrees.

The potential for fog, especially sea fog returns Wednesday night and Thursday morning as rain chances diminish and a warmer, more humid air mass establishes. Depending on how much sunshine we get, we could push deep into the 70s Thursday. The next cold front will hit Thursday afternoon or evening. It should not carry much, if any moisture with it, but it will lead to a sharp drop in humidity, a wind shift, and cooling temperatures.

Friday

By Friday morning, temperatures will have dropped into the 40s across most of the area.

Friday looks like a delightful day with highs warming into the low to mid-60s.

Weekend and next week

Onshore flow resumes Friday night, and we’re going to warm up big time heading into next week. Highs will push well into the 70s on Saturday and perhaps the 80s on Sunday. And from there, it doesn’t change a whole lot next week. Here’s a chart that shows each day’s record high temperature, as well as a forecast high temperature range from various operational and ensemble model guidance.

Date	Record High	Current forecast high range
Saturday 12/20	81° (1921)	77-80°
Sunday 12/21	82° (2010)	78-82°
Monday 12/22	81° (2017)	72-81°
Tuesday 12/23	81° (2020)	76-81°
Wednesday 12/24	82° (1955)	78-83°
Thursday 12/25	83° (2015)	79-84°
Friday 12/26	84° (2016)	78-83°

The wild card day right now looks like Monday, which could see a brief nudge of cooler air before temps surge again. Our next shot at a meaningful cold front may not be until next weekend or later. But the takeaway is that record highs are very much in play every day between Saturday and next Friday, with perhaps the exception of Monday. Stay tuned.

In brief: For the most part, Houston’s forecast hasn’t changed, and that’s what we’ve checked in on this Sunday to tell you. Lows in the 30s tonight across most of the Houston area, with a light freeze likely, mainly north of I-10 and outside the urban center.

Cloud cover is giving today a pretty gloomy feel, albeit perfect weather to watch the Texans. Those clouds are eroding though, and by evening, most of the area should be mainly clear.

With the clear skies, light winds, and a fresh, cold air mass overhead, we’ll be able to see temperatures drop steadily tonight through the 40s and into the 30s. This isn’t a super cold air mass, so it sort of remains to be seen how much of the area can trip the freezing mark tonight, but if I were a betting man (which after watching NFL RedZone all day, they seem to think I am), I would suspect that about 60 to 70% of places north of I-10 will do so.

Within the confines of Beltway 8, most of us will probably see 33 to 37 degrees. Between Beltway 8 and the Grand Parkway, you’re probably looking at 31 to 34 degrees north of I-10 and 32 to 35 degrees south of I-10. Outside Grand Parkway north of I-10, most places should do 28 to 32 degrees and 30 to 34 degrees south of I-10. As you can see from the map above, the core of the cold air mass shoots east of us into Louisiana with 20s for Beaumont, Lake Charles, and Acadiana. This is the type of cold weather we get at least several times a winter, so minimal issues are expected, but if you’ve got some extra sensitive plants outdoors, it may be a good idea to prep them.

But we will warm

Look, if cold isn’t your thing, we’ll do 50s tomorrow, 60s on Tuesday, 70s on Wednesday, and near 80 on Thursday. It looks like we get one more weak front before the real warming begins. Eric will have more on that in the morning. In the meantime, stay warm, and go Texans!

In brief: A lovely day today in Houston will give way to a warm up tomorrow and fog and shower chances on Saturday. Our next front Sunday morning may knock temps back close to freezing in spots on Monday morning before we begin what could be a prolonged, serious warm up leading into Christmas.

Today

It’s a crisp start to Thursday with temperatures in the 40s and some pockets of 30s in northern fringes of the region. It will be a lovely day today with highs in the 60s to perhaps near 70 in spots south and west of Houston. Lots of sunshine.

Friday and Saturday

Tomorrow looks like our transition back into warmer temperatures. With clouds and sun, we should manage to warm from the 40s and 50s in the morning to the 60s and 70s in the afternoon. Some areas near Downtown or just southeast of there will push the mid to upper-70s.

Friday night will be milder with lows the 50s to low-60s mostly. Saturday does feature a return of shower chances, though if you have outdoor plans I’m not quite sure it’s anything you need to plan around just yet. The day will start gloomy with areas of perhaps dense fog and some drizzle. Gradually, skies should brighten, and with that will come the shower or isolated thunderstorm chance.

Sunday

On Saturday night, a cold front will push through with another chance at showers or a thunderstorm. The front is currently timed to hit around sunrise on Sunday. Temperatures may actually drop through the morning on Sunday back into the 50s across the area for most of the afternoon. Our high temperature on Sunday may be around or just after Midnight. It will turn blustery too with 10 to 20 mph winds across the area, higher on the coast.

Could parts of the area freeze Monday morning?

As Eric noted yesterday, temperatures falling into the 30s was possible on Sunday night. Recent model trends have gotten more aggressive with bringing colder air into the area. To be clear, this won’t be a hard or particularly dangerous freeze. However, inland, rural, sheltered locations could nudge back close to 30 degrees. In Houston proper, I doubt we get much below 34 degrees right now, but it will be quite chilly on Monday morning.

Stay tuned!

Next week

Monday itself will be cold with highs only in the 50s. Tuesday should warm into the 60s with milder morning lows (40s mostly). By Wednesday we are in the 70s. Beyond Wednesday, the question will become how warm it gets. As Eric alluded to on Wednesday, the run up to Christmas looks quite warm. In fact, over 50 percent of model ensemble members are calling for a high temperature above 80 degrees by next weekend. It appears that it will not feel like Christmas this year in the days leading up to the holiday. More to come.