In brief: Cool air is settling back into the Houston area this morning, and a secondary push of it arrives Friday night. Look for increasing sunshine today, then plenty of sunshine through Sunday. Clouds and some scattered rain chances do come back next week, including potentially for Christmas Eve and Day. Temperatures will also surge back into the 70s.
Today & Friday
We’re starting off the morning on a cool, crisp note across the Houston area.
Temperatures are mostly in the 40s this morning with some isolated pockets of 50s, especially south and east and 30s to the west or north. (NOAA)
There are a couple pockets of low clouds that need to scour out this morning, but the trend today will be toward increasing sunshine with highs into the 60s in most spots.
Tomorrow looks pretty similar overall. Sunshine should dominate the picture, with highs generally in the 60s and lows generally in the 30s to low-40s. A light freeze cannot be entirely ruled out way north of the city, probably up toward Crockett or Madisonville by Saturday morning. But no freezing temps are expected in the city or suburbs as it stands right now.
Saturday morning lows will be in the 30s and 40s everywhere with a slight chance of a light freeze north of Huntsville and into the Piney Woods. (Pivotal Weather)
Saturday and Sunday
A weak secondary push of cold air arrives Friday night to extend the cool weather into the weekend. Our coolest day will probably be Saturday, also conveniently the Winter Solstice (at 3:21 AM for those of you looking to close out a fun Friday night on a celebratory note). Look for highs in the 50s, maybe low-60s south of Houston. Sunday should be a few ticks warmer with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Both days look sun-filled.
Monday
Onshore flows kicks back in next week, and we’ll probably see a few more clouds on Monday in addition to some sun. We’ll ramp high temperatures back up close to 70 in the afternoon with lows in the 40s and 50s.
Christmas Eve
Timing-wise, the next storm system to impact the state is a bit suboptimal, moving in on Christmas Eve. The good news is that we do not expect a ton of rain and storms, but unfortunately there will be at least some rain and storms around on Christmas Eve that could play a role with any events on Tuesday. We move temps up to the low to mid-70s.
The NWS National Blend of Models suggests that after the colder weather this weekend, we won’t see cold air again for, well, for a while. (Weather Bell)
Christmas Day and beyond
Well, Christmas Day looks fairly similar to Christmas Eve right now with warm temps and some scattered rain chances. Morning lows should be in the 50s to near 60 on Christmas, with daytime highs ramping up into the mid-70s. We could get a weak cool front on Thursday with a chance of more numerous showers and storms and a slight cooldown for Friday. Then we should warm back up with at least a non-zero chance for an 80 again somewhere in our area next weekend or so. Our next meaningful front is at least showing on the models around New Years Day, but obviously that’s still 12 days out so don’t bank on that just yet.
In brief: Rain chances return to Houston today, and they look to hang with us off and on through next week. While rain accumulations look mostly minor, there could be a few spots that see a couple inches of rainfall. A warming trend kicks off, with a lot of 70s and even an outside chance at 80 degrees in a few spots. Cooler weather arrives again later next week.
Today
Radar shows very, very light precipitation across the area this morning, with the exception of a few steadier showers down in Matagorda County. As the day goes on, look for more and more of this activity. Most people probably won’t see heavy rain, but a couple downpours will be around. Temperatures and humidity will do the slow climb today with cloud cover. Look for low 70s south and mid-60s north today. It’ll also be a touch breezy at times today.
Saturday
Drizzle and showers will continue tonight and into tomorrow. As we build up more warmth, humidity, and available moisture tomorrow, we could see some thunderstorms as well. It appears that’s most likely north and west of the city, closer to the front. But don’t be surprised to hear some thunder on Saturday anywhere. Temperatures will be tricky. Ahead of the front, we should see widespread 70s for highs and even a puncher’s chance at 80 degrees down toward Victoria or Bay City. But as the front nudges into parts of the area, even if it stalls out, places like College Station or Huntsville could slip back into the 60s tomorrow afternoon. Dress for spring south and maybe two seasons north.
Sunday’s forecast highs look similar to Saturday in most spots with a crack at 80 degrees south and 70s most elsewhere. (Pivotal Weather)
Sunday
The cold front backs up to the north later this weekend, and this should allow for low clouds and/or patchy fog to make for a dreary-at-times Sunday. There will be drizzle and some passing showers around, but Sunday may have the best chance at some more dry periods. We’ll see highs in the 70s everywhere, with at least a few 80s possible south of I-10.
Monday through Wednesday
Like a pendulum, the front swings back toward us on Monday. This should bring back a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. The front may again stall, this time closer to Houston, which may actually give the metro area a better chance of showers or storms Monday than we see tomorrow. Whatever the case, the front will again retreat Tuesday before a stronger front hits the area on Wednesday.
Consider this a “high end” rainfall forecast for the area. Many places will remain in the quarter to half-inch range, but a few spots will see upwards of an inch or two if they get soaked by heavier downpours. (Pivotal Weather)
Total rainfall has been mostly a bummer lately, and model forecasts heading into this event are also somewhat tantalizing, with the Euro for example showing north of 3 inches of rain in northwest Harris County between now and next week. So, with that in mind, I would say to expect a quarter to half inch in most spots. There will be “lollipops” of 1 to 3 inches, but if recent history is a guide they will be an exception, not the rule.
Temperatures will be in the 70s to near 80 again on Monday, though as the front approaches, we could see temporary cooler air filter in north and west of Houston. Tuesday may be a hair cooler as the air mass tries to recover some. Let’s call it low-70s for highs for now. Then on Wednesday, we’ll see a slight bump up in humidity and morning lows before the front hits.
Late next week
Thursday should see temps back into the 40s for lows and struggle into the upper-50s for highs. It’ll stay cool into the weekend with temps in the 30s and 40s for lows and 50s and 60s for highs. A warming trend may occur into Christmas, but to what degree and whether it comes with rain or chances for another front is still to be determined.
In brief: Houston gets to bathe in near-80° weather today before a cold front tonight sends us back to autumn and early winter with the coldest air of the season so far arriving. A light freeze is possible north and west of the city on Tuesday night and Wednesday night before we bring back rain chances and warm up this weekend.
Today
After a dreary weekend, especially Sunday, we will start the week on a bit of a nicer note. Look for some sunshine today mixed up with cloud cover. Let’s call it “decreasing clouds.” We don’t expect any rain, but what we do expect is warmth. Warm air getting pumped in from the southwest will allow our high temperature today to flirt with 80 degrees! This will be a few degrees shy of the 85° record from 2021. Still, for the warm weather lovers, enjoy. It changes again tomorrow.
Tuesday through Thursday
A cold front is going to push through the region tonight, ushering in a much colder air mass for Tuesday. Despite sunshine, morning lows in the 40s and 50s will be sluggish to warm up on increasing northwest winds Tuesday afternoon. We’ll manage 60 or the low-60s at best. Then, the coldest mornings of the season so far will follow on Wednesday and Thursday. We should see lows in the 30s in the city, near freezing in some of the northern and western suburbs, and at or below freezing just north and west of there.
Freezing temperatures are unlikely in Houston proper on Wednesday and Thursday mornings but for areas north and west of the city, a light freeze is possible. (Pivotal Weather)
Wind gusts on Tuesday evening will be 25 to 35 mph, strongest at the coast. We should see sunshine and highs in the 50s or around 60 degrees on Wednesday. Thursday will probably see increasing clouds with morning lows similar to Wednesday morning and afternoon highs in the low to mid-60s.
Friday and the weekend
Warmer temps will try to work back into the region Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, with highs approaching the 70s again. Morning lows will step up into the 40s and then 50s, if not low-60s this weekend as well. Unfortunately, it’s looking a bit dreary again. Despite the off and on rain this weekend, almost all the area saw merely a quarter to half-inch of rain. So it was not a lot. This coming weekend could see even a bit less than that. So for now, let’s open the bidding at a quarter-inch or so on average this weekend, especially given how recent rains seem to have underperformed. We’ll fine tune things as we get closer.
A high probability of warmer than normal temperatures exists from Saturday through midweek next week across the southern Plains and western Gulf. (NOAA CPC)
Our next meaningful cold front looks to arrive sometime midweek or late week next week. We are still a couple of days away from having a solid indication on Christmas weather, so let’s wildly speculate instead. With colder weather late next week, we could see a warming trend leading into the holiday but exactly how warm is TBD. More to come.
In brief: Will Houston manage another freeze this winter? We discuss what’s been in the news. Rain totals this weekend seem to have backed down some but there will still be some serious temperature and humidity changes into Monday before the coldest air of winter so far arrives next week. A light freeze is possible by Thursday morning outside the city.
Will Houston see a serious freeze this winter?
In the news lately has been ERCOT’s reported prediction of a “greater than average” chance of an extreme cold event this winter. Full disclosure: I know Chris Coleman personally, and he’s a solid forecaster and a good guy. ERCOT uses the fact that 5 of the last 8 winters have seen an extreme cold snap in Texas, as well as the fact that the majority of our extreme cold events since 1950 have occurred in La Niña winters. Interestingly, many of those cold snaps have occurred in otherwise mild winters, including 2016-17, our warmest Texas winter on record! So are these events indeed happening more frequent, or is this perhaps the law of averages catching up with us?
All instances of Houston hitting 21 degrees or colder since the late 1800s. (NOAA)
Going back to the 1800s, Houston has officially hit 21° or colder a total of 124 times. As noted, we’ve done it in 2024, 2022, 2021, 2018, and 2017. So it’s been a busy stretch, in addition to a few other instances in 2014, 2011, and 2010. But prior to 2010, we had last done this in 1996. So we went 14 years without hitting it once before racking up a bunch. The only real comparable stretch to that gap was 1918 to 1928, when we got shut out of sub-21° nights. You’ll notice from the data above that while the quantity of years seeing extreme cold seems to have revved up some in recent years, the duration of these cold spells seems to have shortened. And you see fewer winters with multiple extreme cold spells. Some of that is urban heat island effects due to Houston’s enormous growth. Some of that is the warming Gulf of Mexico in our backyard and/or climate change. But mostly, it’s actually kind of typical to have this type of cold in Houston every few winters. Yes, it’s been busy in recent years. But I think that’s more a consequence of having experienced few major cold snaps between 1996 and 2018 more than anything.
So what are we saying? It probably makes sense to prepare every winter for a pop of extreme cold. It may only last a few days, but it can obviously cause problems. And to the original point about this winter: Given the La Niña in place, there should be an ample reservoir of cold built up in Canada by later January and February. It’s a weak La Niña to be sure, but it should still allow for more Canadian cold than in a typical winter. If the wrong setup comes along to dislodge that into the Plains, that’s when we could experience a pop of extreme cold this winter. Putting all this together, it’s not at all illogical to state we have a greater than normal chance of experiencing a brief extreme cold outbreak this winter. Coleman also mentioned in his ERCOT presentation that for cold weather, “This is like a tornado watch. Doesn’t mean a tornado is going to happen. It means conditions are there.” And I think that’s the key takeaway from all this. And it’s also something Eric noted in our commentary on winter back in early November.
On to the weather, of which there is a good bit to discuss this weekend.
Today
We should close the week out on a cool but benign note. There are some clouds pushing northward across Matagorda Bay, toward Wharton and west out toward perhaps Columbus or Sealy. But aside from that, sun and some clouds rule the day. A chilly morning in the 40s should warm deep into the 50s this afternoon. I would not entirely rule out a passing shower before the end of today, primarily between Matagorda Bay and Columbus or perhaps up toward College Station. Nothing big, just don’t be shocked if you feel some raindrops.
Saturday
Tomorrow will be our transition into a temporary warm pattern, priming us for a wet Sunday. Look for clouds and kind of damp, raw weather on Saturday as humidity levels increase. We’ll manage the mid-50s or a bit milder for highs but between a few showers, the cloud cover, and that rising humidity, “clammy” may be an appropriate descriptor. Look for some low clouds or drizzle in spots in addition to passing showers here or there.
Sunday
More numerous showers seem likely on Sunday across most of the region. The area is in a marginal risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. At this point we think that the only flooding would be typical ponding issues on area roadways (ex: frontage roads) or in small areas that see brief street flooding due to downpours. Modeling seems to have backed down on the amount of rainfall to expect and rain totals have generally been cut as a result.
Average rain totals should be around a half-inch in most spots, with isolated higher and lower amounts. (Pivotal Weather)
The best ingredients to sustain rainfall will be to our east, so places like Beaumont or Lake Charles will be more apt to see more rain it seems. Temps will surge on Sunday though as warm air floods in off the Gulf, along with breezy conditions. Look for highs well into the 60s.
Next week
There will be a disconnect between this weekend system and the incoming cold front, so Monday falls firmly in the warm category. We’ll manage highs into the 70s with a good bit of humidity. The cold front hits Monday night, which as of now looks fairly dry. It appears a secondary front arrives Tuesday afternoon. The combination of the two will allow for Tuesday’s temperatures to drop into 60s for highs and allow for the coldest air of the season Wednesday night.
Morning lows will be in the upper-30s in the city but mid-30s or cooler in outlying areas, leading to a potential light freeze in spots. (Pivotal Weather)
Some places will approach freezing Wednesday night and Thursday morning, primarily north of Houston and outside the city. Daytime highs on both Wednesday and Thursday will limp into the upper-50s or low-60s at best. A somewhat more sustained warm up may follow next weekend and into the week of the 16th. More to come.
