Matt Lanza

In brief: Houston’s best chance at rain remains Saturday, where some parts of the area could see a stronger thunderstorm. Still, it will be a bit of an uneven distribution of rainfall, with some areas likely seeing little rain when all is said and done. Easter looks cool and dreary but overall, not very disruptive.

Pretty much as expected on Wednesday morning, most of the area was void of meaningful rainfall yesterday. So where did it rain? Go north.

From the Brazos Valley to just near Lake Conroe saw anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain, as did a small bullseye south of Lake Livingston and in Sam Houston National Forest. The 2.81″ of rain in College Station was a record for April 2nd and the wettest day of 2026 with the most rain measured there since October 25th of last year. Good news for that area. For us? Frustrating, but that’s how it goes. Are the odds better tomorrow? Let’s discuss.

Today

Today should see clouds, some sun, and a few mostly inconsequential showers around the region. A few places may see up to a half-inch in a steadier downpour but most of us will see minimal rainfall or nothing at all. Highs will be in the mid-80s.

Saturday

The front half of the day will probably much like Thursday and today across most of the area. We cannot rule out some passing showers, but primarily it will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, warm, and humid. A line of thunderstorms should begin developing near College Station in the early afternoon and drop south and east into the Houston area by late afternoon. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, and the area is highlighted in a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather tomorrow.

As the storms push toward Houston, we may see the line become a bit more scattered in nature. Areas west of I-45 and north I-10 still stand the best odds of seeing appreciable rainfall on the order of 1″ or more. There are some signs that the boundary may stall near Houston or just south and east. That could allow for some additional rain to fire up through Saturday evening and overnight. Rest assured, we have alerted the Easter Bunny to wipe his paws at the door.

Don’t focus on the exact rainfall totals forecast from the HRRR model below, but you get the sense of how sporadic it may be, with some areas easily seeing 1 to 2 inches, while others see little to no rain at all.

Generally speaking though, we should see the rain trend toward less coverage and intensity from late evening to overnight.

Easter Sunday

With the front stalled out near the coast or just inland, we should see at least some low clouds, drizzle, and rain showers around south and east of Houston. So, if you’ll be attending any sunrise services, you may need a poncho. Some steadier rain is possible on Easter morning south of the region, toward Matagorda Bay or Corpus Christi. Highs on Sunday will be held back due to cooler air and cloud cover and may not get out of the upper 60s in much of the area.

Monday

Clouds or a shower may even remain with us into Monday morning, but we should see brightening skies with highs in the low 70s. Morning lows will be in the 50s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

A generally nice pair of days is setting up for midweek with highs in the mid to upper 70s and some sunshine. We could see a few extra clouds on Wednesday, along with a chance of a shower. But for the most part it looks quiet. Our coolest morning will be Tuesday, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Later next week

We look to get back to a more active spring pattern later next week with at least the mention of shower or thunderstorm chances each day. As of right now, nothing in particular is standing out, but hopefully we can get some parts of the area a little more rainfall. We shall see.

In brief: Houston has a mixed bag of rain chances for the next few days, with Saturday still looking like the most bullish chance at rainfall. Despite warm, humid conditions in the near term, much cooler weather is expected to arrive on Sunday.

Quick notes

First off, I want to thank Eric for his kind post on Tuesday regarding my news of departure from Houston this summer. I am thankful for the opportunity to stay involved with Space City Weather as much as I have always been though.

Second, I left off one additional word of thanks in my post Monday, and that was to Reliant for being such an amazing supporter and sponsor for Space City Weather. Really, they just let us do our thing, hands off, and in return we periodically throw some useful messaging and information on what they provide to our audience. It feels like it’s been win-win, and I just want to make sure to share my appreciation and gratitude for their support.

Last, I want to congratulate everyone in the Houston area (and beyond) that has been involved in the Artemis mission. I mean…wow. The mission is of course nowhere near completed yet, but to be able to share that moment with my kids, a moment that those of us born after the early 70s have never experienced was truly special. And it’s not like we just watched the launch and then went about the evening. No, we fired back up NASA’s mission stream before bed to check on them. And we will be doing that many more times for this and future launches. I am hopeful this spurs new interest in space and support of science. Time and again it’s been proven that with human ingenuity and science, great achievements are possible. To the many folks that have brought us back to this point, thank you.

Onward…

Thursday and Friday

If you were lucky yesterday, you saw some rain. I literally looked outside, said “it’s raining,” and in the time it took me to comprehend that it was raining, it stopped. I’m not exaggerating whatsoever. “Blink and you might miss it” applied. Some folks did do okay though. The Sealy area saw over 0.75″ of rain in spots, including a 1.12″ from a Harris County Flood Control District gauge north of San Felipe. There was also a corridor of heavier rainfall north of Downtown with 1.25″ at a CenterPoint gauge along Tidwell Road and 1.16″ at 59 & 610.

Yesterday’s rainfall came from south to north moving showers as gusty winds and Gulf moisture piled in. Yesterday was also one of the most uncomfortable days of this spring with the humidity. Today’s rain chances will be slightly different. The setup features showers and storms that are approaching Aggieland from the north and west as a boundary nudges toward the region. It’s unlikely that those storms are going to make it into the Houston Metro in an organized fashion. But some disorganized showers are already occurring across the area and a few storms are possible later this morning in places like Navasota or Magnolia or The Woodlands.

Friday will probably just feature a smattering of some light to moderate showers and nothing worse. Good news if, you’ll be attending the Dash game! Highs will be in the low to mid-80s both today and tomorrow with lows stuck in the 70s.

Saturday

It appears that the first half of this weekend will feature our best chance for more widespread rain. That said, there continues to be some model disagreement on how resilient the coverage of that rain will be. In general, expect a solid line of showers and thunderstorms, including some that could be on the stronger side moving into the Brazos Valley early on Saturday afternoon. Those should begin to move into northwestern parts of the Houston Metro (Katy, Cypress, Magnolia north to Conroe) by late afternoon. The line of storms may peak as it enters the northwest fringe of the Houston area but then begin to fracture or fizzle during the evening hours as it moves south and east from there.

As of right now I would expect the best chances of a half inch or more of rainfall on Saturday to be north of I-10 and west of I-45, with the lowest chances south of I-10 and west of Highway 288. Rain totals may end up ranging from a quarter inch in the Wharton area to a half inch or so at the coast to 1.5 or 2 inches northwest of Houston. We’ll fine tune this again tomorrow.

Sunday

Clouds and light showers may linger on Sunday, especially south and east of Houston. It will also turn sharply cooler on Sunday. Expect highs near 70 degrees north and west to low or mid-70s south and east. An additional disturbance may pass to the south of our area Sunday evening providing a slight uptick in rain chances for the Matagorda Bay region into Galveston.

Next week

Cloud cover may linger into Monday morning, along with shower chances near the coast before things clear out a bit. This should lead to a decent Monday afternoon and Tuesday, with highs in the 70s. Morning lows will be in the 50s or even some 40s!

Rain chances may begin to slowly return after Tuesday with gradual warming.

In brief: Nothing about the site is changing, but Matt has a life update to share.

A couple things happened last Friday. First, it was announced that Houston is finally getting back the WNBA team it always deserved, as the Connecticut Sun will be relocating here in 2027. Friday was also the beginning of a transition for me, Matt, the managing editor of this website. I resigned from my position at CenterPoint Energy. Let’s just get this out of the way first: It was a privilege to work with and learn from so many people at that organization. I am grateful for the opportunity they gave me, especially as one of the voices who was critical of them in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl.

I found the commitment there to continuous improvement refreshing. Every time I engaged with executives from the CEO on down at CenterPoint, the first question they would ask me is “do you have what you need?” I don’t think anyone in the area can fully comprehend how much work is being done across the region by CenterPoint, both in response to 2024’s disasters and in anticipation of the absolutely insane growth in power demand coming to Texas. And quite frankly, I got to build something really cool stuff that is built to last and will continue to help further their preparation and resiliency to disasters. I leave them in the more than capable hands of Lena Dziechowski, who is an absolute rock star of a meteorologist. I was incredibly lucky to work with her, and I wish her and CenterPoint absolutely nothing but success going forward.

Now, as they say, some personal news. “The only constant in life is change,” is a quote often misattributed to the Greek philosopher Heraclitus. Whoever said it, however, was correct. The world is in constant flux. It’s partially why I enjoy weather forecasting. Our lives are all full of change. I’ve been in Houston for almost 15 years now, half of which have included children, a process that in and of itself was full of challenges and changes in expectations. Job changes, some by choice, some not, living changes, health changes, and on and on. Now my family will be making another big change in the coming months, relocating from Houston to Connecticut. Houston gets the Sun (Comets), Connecticut gets us.

Obviously, this was not an easy decision, but in the interest of transparency to our readers, something we always do, I’ll share with you some reasons why. The first and foremost reason is family. My father will be turning 80 in a year and a half, and quite frankly, seeing him and my mom once a year has started to weigh on my conscience a bit. They still live in New Jersey and don’t exactly enjoy traveling, and with grandchildren in the mix now, it feels a bit unfair. A move closer will allow us to see each other more. We’ve been fortunate and blessed to have my wife’s parents relocate to the Houston area most of the time we’ve been here, and in many ways it also feels unfair to leave them. But they also travel a bit better, and we will be happy to return to visit Houston once or twice a year (except not in August or September, sorry).

And in that vein, another reason is that quite frankly, I do worry about our vulnerability here to hurricanes, and not just Beryl-type storms—much bigger storms. There’s a commitment all around toward building resiliency in our region and things are better now than they were 5 or 10 years ago. But I’ll be honest, the fact that the “Ike Dike” is still mainly a plan on paper nearly 20 years after Ike is a little troubling. Metaphorically, my concern for hurricanes is what keeps me up at night. I take this stuff seriously. It’s a passion, a hobby, and a job. After 15 years of this, I’m ready to tap the brakes a bit for my own sanity before this literally keeps me up at night. Sure, the odds in any given year are exceptionally low. But when this is what you do for a living and you know more than most people about storms, it doesn’t always feel that way. Also, our summers have been getting hotter here, which is going to continue as the climate changes. I can live with cold, even if it’s annoying (especially in March in New England), but 9 of our 15 hottest summers have occurred since 2009. Sprawl and urban heat island are certainly part of that, but so is a warming Gulf and climate change. Some people love the heat or can tolerate it, and that’s great. I can too, but within limits. 2023 was the most miserable summer I’ve ever experienced, and I’d rather not go through that again.

So what does that mean for the site? And for that matter The Eyewall? The answer is nothing. I am going to continue to be the primary producer of posts for The Eyewall. And I will continue to lend Eric a hand with SCW, posting regularly on Fridays and hopefully having the ability to do some extra-curricular stuff to help you understand Houston’s weather better. In fact, having me an hour ahead of Houston may even be a bit more advantageous to getting some stuff out sooner during bigger weather events or important forecasts. The idea is that you’ll notice nothing different.

To say we’ll miss Houston is an understatement. I outlined my weathery concerns above, but the reality is that the people here are amazing. The community here is amazing. The passion and pride is amazing. I love how Houston can be honest about some of its shortcomings but then the second some outsider tries to talk bad about it, we come at them with pitchforks. Do not mess with Houston. Houston is actually how people outside Texas envision Austin to be: It’s quirky, fun, it functions, it’s full of energy, literally and figuratively, and it’s woefully underrated outside of Texas. Sorry, ATX…HOU is cooler. It has the most amazing food of any place I’ve lived or visited. You can even find pizza here that more than meets the mark. I may be getting good pizza in Connecticut, but I will probably desperately miss the rest of the food available here. Did I think I’d live in Houston when I graduated college? Nope. Am I glad I did? Yes.

We’ll remain here in Houston for a few more months before the move. I’ll be taking on a new full-time role helping commodities traders with weather intelligence, getting more into the weeds of the weather forecasting that I also love. But Eric and I just wanted you to know about my change in situation before it happened. And we want to be sure you are also reassured that nothing is changing for the site. Thanks for adopting this Yankee over the years, and thanks as always for supporting the mission Eric and I strive to achieve.

In brief: Very nice spring weather, albeit more typical for May will continue in Houston through the weekend. A slight change toward better rain chances remains in the cards next week, but there are reasons to have some healthy skepticism.

Despite somewhat underwhelming maximum temperatures so far in this period of warm weather, Houston remains on track to basically lock in a top 5 warmest March on record and the warmest March since 2020, if not longer. Yesterday, Bush only hit 84°, while Hobby managed 82°. Let’s take a run at the forecast.

Today and Thursday

It would appear that we’ll be seeing more of the same today and tomorrow. It should be a touch hotter on both days, with highs likely topping off somewhere in the 85-to-87-degree range. Originally, it looked like Thursday could be perhaps a skosh cooler but that appears to be an imperceptible difference at this point. Other than that, expect sun and a few fair weather clouds after some patchy morning fog or low clouds. *Roofcast:* Based on this forecast, the roof will probably be closed for a 3 PM game on Opening Day at Daikin Park. Odds will be higher that it will open for night games through the weekend.

Friday

Our best chance at approaching 90 degrees continues to look as if it will come on Friday. I still think we’ll come up just short. Yesterday I said to put 8 bucks on 89° and a dollar each on 88 and 90+. Today, I might say to put 7 dollars on 89°, 2 dollars on 88°, and a buck on 90+. Once again it should be sunny.

Overnight lows will remain fairly comfortable, generally in the 60s with humidity that isn’t too terribly high. In fact, as you can see from the precipitable water anomaly map above, the air mass is actually running a bit drier than normal on Friday morning, meaning humidity should be kept in check. Overall, conditions in our neck of the woods have not been too uncomfortable or exceptionally dry either over the last week or so, which feels like a bit of a rarity. But it’s what sometimes makes early spring the best season here in Houston, even when it’s hotter than normal.

The weekend

Saturday will be something of an interesting temperature forecast. I would still say much of the area sees upper-70s for highs, but if the air is just dry enough, we may bust hotter, with highs in the low-80s in spots.

Either way, it looks like a lovely day. Sunday should be much the same with morning lows in the 50s or low-60s and highs in the low-80s and sunshine.

Next week

We continue to see modeling suggest we go to a slightly more active, wetter weather pattern across Texas. Whether or not that actually translates to significant rain for the Houston area remains to be seen. But if you look at what the upper-level weather pattern is expected to do next week, this big ridge that has been anchored in either the West or Plains since last week will finally shoot eastward, leaving Texas in a weaker transition zone between ridge and trough.

This should allow for some Pacific moisture to infiltrate Mexico and Texas. And if we don’t see organized thunderstorms per se, we will probably see a scattering of typical spring storms across the state. Hopefully that nets us a couple inches of much-needed rain, but time will tell. One thing that could wreck that is if the high pressure in the East flexes too much, meaning we just end up on the western edge of it rather than on the outside of it. Also, as noted yesterday, in long-term droughts, these things have a habit of going “poof” so I’m keeping my expectations low for now.