Matt Lanza

In brief: While numerous rain showers will continue in the Houston area today and probably tomorrow, the overall trend will be toward slightly less coverage toward Sunday. This should lead to a rather classic June week next week with heat, humidity, and hopefully some cooling downpours each afternoon.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms have impacted the region the last few days. Pockets of the area have seen as much as 3 to 5 inches of rainfall. Are we heading for a repeat of last summer, where it rained basically every day somewhere? Too soon to say, but we’re off to a tolerable start to summer to say the least.

Today and tomorrow

We’ve got a batch of showers that’s been following I-45 south of Downtown and then 290 and 249 northwest of Downtown since the overnight hours.

For the rest of today, we are expecting numerous showers and some thunderstorms across the area. Coverage may focus away from the coast today. Some areas will skate around the rain, but others will cash in once more. We should do it once again tomorrow, though I would not be shocked if we see a few heavier storms embedded tomorrow too. We’ll top off in the mid-80s today and mid to perhaps upper-80s tomorrow if we have just a little less coverage.

Sunday

By the end of the weekend, rainfall coverage should back into more of a typical summer pattern. Heavier showers will be near the coast in the morning, then perhaps inland by afternoon. But overall coverage should begin to scale back some here. Highs will be around 90 degrees.

Next week

For most of next week, we establish a very June weather setup across Southeast Texas. Sun, clouds, isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms, heat, and humidity. Highs will be in the lower-90s, hopefully with many of us seeing some cooling afternoon downpours. One note about next week: I think we’re going to see nighttime lows start to rev up a bit.

We’ve only had four mornings this year above 75 degrees at Bush Airport (compared to 14 at this same point last year). We should string together several of them next week. As we prep for the endless World Cup events across the area, it’ll definitely feel the season. More for you Monday!

In brief: A quiet weekend looks to be in store for Houston with standard early summer hot weather and minimal rain chances. Things do turn more active again next week with building rain chances after Tuesday.

The topline here is that things look pretty good this weekend for Houston! As Eric noted yesterday, we’re definitely in the early summer phase of things, and with the calendar flipping to June on Monday, that will track. Some good news today: The U.S. Drought Monitor updated on Thursday and shows virtually the entire Houston area completely out of drought now.

As far as I can tell, this is the first time we’ve been this drought-free in the area since late September. It’s been a long while. Even in Corpus Christi, the reservoir levels in that area are as high as they’ve been since last September also.

Although the weekend looks fine, there are some signs we aren’t quite done with rainy weather entirely.

Today and the weekend

I’m not going to promise this weekend will be completely dry. It is almost June after all, and it’s tough to completely void the area of an afternoon downpour in spots. But any showers would be quite random and isolated. Aside from that, it looks fine. Highs will be near 90 or so, maybe in the low-90s in some spots. Mornings should be nice with lows in the 70s.

Monday

We could see a few additional showers in the area on Monday afternoon. But still, the majority of the region looks fairly quiet. More low-90s for highs and mid-70s for lows.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Coverage of rain and thunderstorms should increase to at least “scattered” levels for the middle of the week. Unlike this past week and weekend’s rains, the setup next week looks to favor activity moving off the Gulf or out of Louisiana initially. We could see some gusty thunderstorms with that, along with locally heavy downpours. I doubt we’ll see any of the 3 AM wakeup call stuff like we’ve had this week. Which, great, because we need sleep.

As a sidebar: There is no real serious tropical system risk in the Gulf right now for next week or the week after. The GFS model is often shown this time of year, but it has a very well known, systemic bias of constantly overforecasting tropical storms and hurricanes in May and June. So it can be safely disregarded. That said, it’s not out of the question that a weak, sloppy system forms in the eastern Gulf over the next 2 weeks. Here in Texas, our rain may fall hard at times, but it should not tied to anything tropical.

Later next week

We may flip the flow in the atmosphere later next week, which means storms could form in Central and West Texas and work their way east more like we saw this week. Or we’ll just end up with scattered rain and thunderstorms each day. It’s too soon to speculate on anything specific, as you know how that goes even 24 to 36 hours out sometimes. Whatever the case, it looks unsettled. Highs should back down into the 80s. But we’ll of course need to watch for localized flooding if the rain comes in higher doses. Consult your meteorologist next week to see if rainfall is right for you.

In brief: While rain totals across the Houston area have been rather variable (ranging from less than an inch in some spots to over 8 inches in far southern Brazoria County), we expect everyone to participate in rain and storm chances this weekend, especially from Saturday night into Monday. Flash flooding remains a distinct possibility, and our Stage 2 flood alert will remain up through at least Monday.

Rainy pattern check-up

We’re a few days into this relatively significant change to a rainy pattern, and so far, so good for the most part. We’re going to maintain the Stage 2 flood alert through the holiday weekend. I think the rains we saw Wednesday down in Brazoria County (7 inches) exemplify what this setup is capable of.

So far, the northern half of the area has seen a relatively pedestrian 1 to 2 inches (even less in spots), while the southern half has seen 1 to 4 inches on average, with pockets of 5 to 8 inches. We expect another 1 to 4 inches on average over the next week across the entire area. Isolated higher and a couple lower amounts are indeed possible.

For those concerned about the situation in Corpus Christi, Lake Texana has seen about 3 inches of rain, while Lake Corpus Christi has seen about 4 inches of rain so far. Areas upstream of those lakes have received anywhere from 2 to 4 inches as well. By no means does this “save” Corpus Christi from a very bad situation, but it obviously helps buy some time. And any help is great news down there right now.

Today through tomorrow afternoon

Right now, weather modeling is suspiciously calm today and much of Saturday across the area. Obviously, showers and thunderstorms are still possible. But I would suspect most places stay dry as the best “oomph” for storms remains south or offshore in the Gulf. We’ll probably see clouds and sun. Highs may nudge back up into the middle or even some upper-80s after a couple days of lower 80s. There will be plentiful humidity to go along with that.

Saturday night through Monday

If we’re going to get smacked by rainfall, Saturday evening through Memorial Day would be the timeframe I’d be watching closest. A rather vigorous disturbance in the middle and upper atmosphere is going to swing into the Houston area on Saturday evening. This should provide the trigger necessary to get storms off and running. It’s impossible to really say exactly how things are going to setup right now, but expect increasing thunderstorm chances after about 4 PM on Saturday into Saturday night across the Houston area.

We’ll then need to watch for repeated development of storms and the risk for flash flooding, including in areas that have not seen much rain so far. With moisture in the atmosphere much higher than normal, any storms will be capable of dropping 2 to 4 inches of rain in an hour or so. Any “training” or repeating thunderstorms over the same area means those totals could add up quickly, hence the concern for some localized flooding and our Stage 2 flood alert. More to come on this throughout the weekend as we get more clarity on timing and locations impacted.

Next week

The area will remain under the influence of an unsettled weather pattern and above normal atmospheric moisture. I would expect this on again/off again type rain and storm stuff to continue through much of next week, though perhaps at a slightly slower pace. Either way, what we can say with fairly high confidence right now is that any sustained, strong early summer heat is not in the cards through at least early June.

In brief: After the hottest day of 2026 in Houston, we expect a quiet, less hot but more humid weekend. Rain chances then pick up next week with potentially locally heavy rainfall in spots by midweek.

Yesterday was our hottest day of the year in Houston, as we officially hit 91 degrees at Bush Airport. Lest anyone wonder if IAH is too overcooked, a CenterPoint sensor adjacent to the airport hit 90 degrees, so the answer is probably not. Hobby Airport also hit 91 degrees. That’s our 5th 90 degree day of the year. Early summer is here.

Today

We have a shot at pushing 91 again today, though I think we may come up just a tinge short. Dewpoints and thus humidity are a bit higher today.

We also have a few extra clouds streaming through the area today. Either way, we are quibbling. It should feel fairly similar today to yesterday.

Weekend

Saturday looks fine. Sunday could see an isolated shower but nothing that would significantly disrupt your plans. You will notice the breeze this weekend. Onshore winds around 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph are possible on both weekend days as more humid air continues to rush ashore. High temperatures will probably come up short of 90 degrees, with mostly upper-80s expected. Cloud cover will be noticeable on both days, along with breaks of sunshine.

Next week

Expect a more active weather week next week. A pretty substantial plume of moisture in the atmosphere is going to extend from Texas, across the western Gulf, and into Central America. Some of this moisture plume actually extends back into the eastern Pacific too. So, we will have plentiful moisture in place to support potentially heavy rainfall in spots.

The question we can’t answer this far out is where the triggering will end up. Will it be mainly in interior Texas? Louisiana? Here in Southeast Texas? We don’t know just yet, but there are plenty of signals in the modeling that 1 to 2 inches of rain or more will fall next week across the region. Isolated higher amounts would be almost guaranteed in this type of pattern. Bottom line: It’s too early to say exactly who will see the most rain next week, but there is an increasing chance that some parts of the area will receive locally heavy rainfall, especially next Tuesday or Wednesday. More to come on this.

The rain will hold back daytime temperatures a good bit, with highs mainly in the 80s but the moisture and clouds will hold lows in the mid to upper-70s. May the foggy glasses when you step out of the car commence.