Matt Lanza

In brief: Hot weather will persist with increasing humidity this weekend. Shower chances remain low but even those will increase a tinge as we go through the weekend and into next week. Our next front may (or may not) pass through late next week or weekend. We also assess where we stand with drought in the area today.

If you’re like me and absolutely loathe this period between August and true autumn, it actually has not been a terrible stretch of weather. Yes, it’s hot, but the humidity levels have been quite tolerable each day, and it has not felt totally miserable. The humidity levels are now expected to increase, albeit slowly ahead of our next front, which may or may not arrive by late next week.

Today through Monday

Shower chances will slowly increase through the weekend. These are going to be isolated showers, nothing widespread and probably nothing you need to really plan around. You may just get rained on for a few minutes, particularly near the coast this weekend but possibly farther inland by Monday.

It will be hot, so if you’re attending any outside events this weekend, such as the Southern Smoke Festival just make sure to stay hydrated. Highs will be near 90 with lows in the 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday

We could see temperatures increase a degree or two here, but otherwise, it looks like status quo from this weekend. Just hot, humid, and a minor chance of passing showers each afternoon.

Later next week

We still see at least some model support for a cool front, maybe more like a humidity front later next week or weekend. Eric gave it about 30 to 50 percent odds yesterday, and I think that stands pat today right around there. We’ll continue to watch.

Drought?

We’ve had a dry week. We’ve had little to no rain, and despite shower chances peppering the forecast going into next week, it does not look like most areas will see significant rain at all. So are we heading toward a drought? The answer is maybe. We saw some degradation in conditions with yesterday’s report, but the vast majority of our region still remains outside of drought.

The only areas in technical drought are just west of the Brazos River. Most of the Houston area remains normal or just abnormally dry. If dry weather persists, we’ll probably see this expand in the coming weeks or months. But with drought, it’s a long game usually. We’ll see.

In brief: A lengthy stretch of quiet weather will settle into Houston. No rain is expected over the next week, and temperatures look warm for this time of year, albeit with tolerable humidity. Our next front is TBD. The tropics remain a non-concern for Texas.

We are heading into a lengthy stretch of pretty quiet weather in the Houston area. Just to give you an idea of how quiet, here’s the 7-day rainfall forecast from the NWS for our area:

So, expect a lot of sunshine the next several days!

With that will come drier conditions and certainly more autumn-like humidity levels. This will keep things hot but relatively comfortable. However, each afternoon, relative humidity levels should dip below 40 or even 30 percent.

With light winds forecast for the foreseeable future and some ample rain in many spots of late, fire danger isn’t exactly high, but if you are going to be working with open flames, particularly in more rural parts of the region, you’ll want to exercise some caution given the drier air mass in place here.

We will probably see humidity levels rebound a little next week. Temperature levels will too. We’ll go from upper-80s to around 90 degrees the next few days into the firmer low-90s later next week. Nighttime lows will only increase slowly, back to perhaps near or above 70 by later next week.

We could see temps spike to the mid-90s for a couple days later next week. Our next front is TBD, but there are hints of perhaps another weak one next weekend.

Tropics

We continue to see the Gulf shut out of tropics risks, good news for sure. But folks on the East Coast will need to monitor the 90% development area. Potential tropical cyclone advisories could be issued on this as early as later today. The track forecast is coming into focus now, with a path toward the Carolinas likely.

There are still a number of questions on 94L moving into the Bahamas. But it looks like it will be a hefty rainmaker for parts of the Carolinas, hopefully east of the footprint of Helene last year. You can follow our coverage of this system at The Eyewall.

In brief: Mainly quiet, pollen-ridden weather through tomorrow in Houston, followed up by more scattered-type showers and storms Sunday through Tuesday. A cold front that’s more like a humidity front continues to look plausible around midweek next week. The tropics remain quiet for us.

Today & Saturday

Our late summer slog continues with hot days, warmer than normal nights, and generally high humidity (though at times it feels decent outside at least). Isolated showers are possible today, and we may see isolated to scattered showers or a thunderstorm tomorrow. Overall, nothing too bad. Temperatures will be in the low-90s for highs.

An ozone action day is in effect again today. For most people this will not be an issue, but for those of you in sensitive groups, try to avoid being outside except early and late in the day. Also, for those of you (like me) that have had the sniffles lately, there’s a good chance that ragweed is the culprit.

The typical autumn nemesis.

Sunday through Tuesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should be the name of the game beginning Sunday. While this will still be a patchwork type rain setup, a few more folks should begin to participate each afternoon. Expect continued highs in the low-90s but perhaps some slightly cooler afternoons at times due to the showers. Lows will remain mostly in the 70s.

Wednesday front!?

Eric has mentioned the potential of a cool front next week, nothing spectacular but a potential notable change for a couple days. That remains very much on the table today. The timing is a bit suspect, but sometime in the Wednesday or Thursday timeframe, it appears that a weak front will drop south into the area, bringing the potential for scattered to numerous thunderstorms for a short time. Behind the front, we’d turn a little cooler and a lot less humid to close out the week.

You can see the European model forecast of dewpoint for midweek, showing a distinct drop in dewpoint levels on Wednesday evening into Thursday and Friday. This is more of a humidity front than a cold front, though the lower humidity should translate into a chance at widespread lows in the 60s by Friday morning perhaps. With the Autumnal Equinox on Monday afternoon, we do see signs of fall sprinkling the forecast.

Tropics

Gabrielle is slowly building in the Atlantic, but that’s where it will stay. Another wave behind Gabrielle has some development risk, but that also looks to stay in the Atlantic. Is there anything to focus on for Houston? Nothing specific. There’s a general trend, particularly with AI models to try to spin something up in the northwest Caribbean in about 10 days, but that’s not supported much in the traditional physics-based models.

So this will be a good test for AI modeling: Are they capable of “seeing” a tropical genesis risk earlier than traditional models. In truth, earlier this season, when AI models were quite a bit spicier than traditional models at genesis forecasts, they tended to fail the test. This may also be a case of AI modeling being overzealous for some reason, but it’s something we’ll watch at least. Only 2 known hurricanes have had legitimate hurricane impacts on the Houston area after next week: Jerry in 1989 that hit Galveston and a storm that took a similar track to Beryl from last year that hit in 1949. History is on our side after next week, but as always, we will continue to watch.

For the record, come October we are more likely to be impacted by remnants of Pacific storms that bring heavy rain risk than a direct impact from the Gulf. That can bring its own set of problems, so forecasters stay vigilant deep into October.

In brief: Today should be dry and hot in Houston, but the isolated to scattered shower chances will (sort of) return this weekend. Temps will remain pretty hot with low to mid-90s being the standard for a while longer.

Look, if we’re really being honest, I don’t have much to add to what Eric’s forecast yesterday summed up in gifs. The only thing that kind of changed was the rain! Several spots picked up a quarter to even a half-inch or slightly more of rain yesterday from passing showers.

Unauthorized showers, but not bad at all.

Today through Monday

In terms of rain chances, today looks minimal to near zero. Tomorrow looks quite isolated. Sunday and Monday should see at least a smattering of afternoon showers in typical late summer fashion here in Houston. Most of us will probably see little to no rain, but like Thursday, a few locations could pick up a quarter to half-inch from a heavier downpour.

Temperatures? Well, we are truly in “Second Summer” now. It’ll be hot, today especially. I wouldn’t be shocked to see upper-90s in a few locations this afternoon. Temps will then back down into the low to mid-90s Saturday through Monday. Morning lows won’t be as nice as earlier this week, with mid to upper 70s.

Rest of next week

It may get hotter yet next week, with temperatures starting through Tuesday or Wednesday in the low to mid-90s. We could do mid to even isolated upper-90s by late week or next weekend, possibly. It looks like this week was, indeed, fake fall. The 8-to-14-day outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows the highest odds of above normal temperatures in the Lower 48 right over Southeast Texas.

Every now and then, we can count on a decent end to September temperature-wise. I’m not sure this is the year. But, hey, at least we had this week and a mostly tolerable summer!