Matt Lanza

In brief: Periods of heavy rain will track through Houston throughout the day today, especially along and north of I-10. Additionally, some strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon across the southern 2/3 of the area. Street flooding is a good bet today. Rain ends this evening with gusty winds overnight. But a stellar weekend awaits.

Today

So far this morning, heavy rainfall has been limited to the northern half of the Houston metro, this after some strong storms overnight brought numerous hail reports from Sugar Land through Missouri City and Pearland.

Areas between Cypress and Spring have seen 2 to 3 inches of rain since yesterday. The area that saw hail also received close to 1.5 inches of rain in many spots. Rain continues to jet along and north of Highway 59/I-69 in and west of Houston this morning and north of I-10 east of Houston. That’s going to be the general pattern for most of the day, where those areas see fairly persistent rainfall.

Severe weather risk

However, as we get into the late morning and afternoon hours, there will likely be at least a couple of more ambitious clusters of thunderstorms that develop south of those areas. This would be primarily along and south of I-10 across the Houston metro all the way down to the coast. Not to say we could not see a couple of these find their way north of the I-10 corridor into Liberty, Waller, or northern Harris County, but the severe weather focus today will be mostly south of there. Again, I-10 is not a magical barrier; it’s just a nice, easy demarcation line that most readers generally know.

As these storms wiggle through, any of them will be capable of producing 40 to 50 mph wind gusts, some large hail, and frequent lightning. As you get closer to, say, Freeport, Lake Jackson, Matagorda Bay, or as far south as Corpus Christi, there is also a little bit of “spin” in the atmosphere that could yield a storm that produces a tornado, so just be aware of that. The entire southern two-thirds of the area is in a marginal risk (level 1/5) primarily due to the hail risk, but also due to the wind and very isolated tornado risk.

Flooding risks

In terms of how much additional rain we see, the entire area away from the coast is under a Flood Watch from the National Weather Service in Houston, a slight risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center, and a Stage 1 Flood Alert here on Space City Weather.

What does that tell you? Street flooding is probably a good bet today. This is a good day to be weather aware if you have errands to run or appointments to tend to. Give yourself extra time to get where you need to go. This will be especially true in the second half of the day as the ground will be saturated, making some street flooding more likely.

How much additional rain should we expect? It will vary, but likely another 1 to 4 inches of rain through the duration of the event where it’s currently raining (as of 5:30 AM). South of those areas should see anywhere from a half-inch to 2 inches of rain depending on exactly how this afternoon’s thunderstorms align. The latest HRRR model’s depiction of additional rainfall through this evening is shown below. Don’t focus on specifics here, but you can see the general pattern of how things should flow.

The good news is that rain should be out of here tonight, so expect the rain to end from west to east from about 8 PM through 1 AM or so. Early evening plans will be dicey, but late evening plans may be ok. Just don’t drive through any residual flooded roads!

Eric will have another update on today’s weather situation by the afternoon.

Gusty winds

One last note: As the rain begins to wind down, and the front pushes through with the disturbance kind of wound up, we are going to see non-thunderstorm winds increase. This should be especially true near the coast and in the southern half of the area. Inland wind gusts should be on the order of 20 to 30 mph beginning after 6 PM. Some locally higher gusts are possible. Coastal wind gusts will be more like 35 to 45 mph, and gale warnings are posted for the bays and Gulf.

Winds should be at their gustiest from about midnight through 7 AM Saturday. Then, you’ll see them gradually subside through the day tomorrow.

Weekend

Other than the wind in the morning, tomorrow looks glorious with low humidity, sunshine, and highs in the mid-70s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. Sunday looks just as nice or better with more sun and highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Enjoy the early May, comfortable weekend spring fling!

Next week

Looking ahead, temperatures do warm up a good bit, back close to 90 degrees by the time we get to Tuesday or Wednesday. Believe it or not, another May cold front may be in the cards for later next week. Details forthcoming on that, but additional rain and storm chances may be in the cards around then as well.

In brief: Houston firmly ramps into pre-summer this weekend with several chances at 90 degree highs between Saturday and Tuesday. Lower-end chances for a couple feisty thunderstorms exist today and perhaps around midweek next week before we eye a possible cooldown next weekend.

Pre-summer will be enroute to the Houston area over the next several days. That said, we’ve finally gotten some rain here. In fact, over the last 10 days, most of the area has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rainfall. Soil moisture has not entirely caught up to where it should be for this time of year, but it has improved vastly this month.

While we heat up, we will also be dodging some rain chances here and there.

Today

The area is highlighted in a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms today, as there will be a very slight chance for a couple pop up storms later this afternoon. The highest chance for a couple storms would be north of I-10 and east of I-45, but with a springtime air mass, some sunshine, and instability, it’s not out of the question that a couple storms pop up outside of that quadrant of the area. Most of us will remain dry though. Highs will be in the mid to locally upper 80s today.

There may also be a couple more organized storms late this evening in Louisiana that drop north to south and could graze locations east of I-45 as well, though probably closer to Lufkin and Beaumont than Houston.

Weekend

The weekend should be mostly dry, but we cannot entirely rule out a pop-up shower or very rogue thunderstorm. Otherwise, it’ll be spring swampy with highs well into the 80s to perhaps near 90 degrees and plentiful humidity. Winds from the south at 10 to 15 mph will be what you get for the MS 150 ride this weekend. Some higher gusts over 20 mph are possible, especially in open area or on hill crests. Good luck to all the participants.

Monday & Tuesday

These should be our hottest days. While most forecast highs are into the low-90s right now, I would not be shocked if recent rains and some model tendency to get overeager lead us to see temperatures closer than 89 to 91 degrees here rather than 92 to 94 degrees. We shall see.

Other than the slightest of chances of a shower or storm with daytime heating, it looks just plain ole hot and humid. By Tuesday evening there may be a better organized line of storms dropping south from Dallas, but I currently expect it to fizzle out before getting here. Probably not an issue, but we’ll keep watch.

Later next week

Wednesday and Thursday should also be hot days with upper 80s to 90 or so. However, there is a chance of showers or a thunderstorm on those days, a slightly better chance. This may be a precursor to what could be a fairly strong cold front at the end of the week. The front may (should?) allow for us to have another refreshing series of days next weekend.

The signal in modeling is pretty stout, so I’m cautiously favoring a noteworthy cooldown next weekend. More on that Monday.

In brief: Drought conditions have begun to improve across Houston, and that should hopefully continue with more rain expected on Saturday and next week. It will also turn quite a bit cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with early spring type temperatures!

Let’s start with a drought update. The latest report dropped yesterday, and we saw notable improvement across the Houston area, as you’d expect after last weekend.

We should see additional improvement next week, assuming we get the forecast rain tomorrow.

Today

Watch for some patchy fog this morning in spots, but otherwise expect a mix of clouds and sun. We should push up into the mid-80s.

Saturday

Alright, so tomorrow is the tricky forecast day all around. A couple showers are possible in the morning, but we aren’t currently expecting too much in the way of rain through midday. Showers will become a bit more numerous in the afternoon hours across the area. A few thunderstorms are also possible. Here’s a 4 PM forecast radar from the HRRR model just to set the mood a little in terms of what things could look like tomorrow afternoon.

As the afternoon turns to evening, we should see more frequent periods of showers and rain across the area. The back edge of the rain will be slow to advance through Houston, probably not reaching the coast until Sunday morning. Generally speaking, we should see a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rainfall across the area. Some isolated spots will get more, and it’s conceivable that a couple spots see less too. Any areas seeing more rain may also see localized street flooding.

For the Ironman Triathlon, Eric covered things in depth yesterday. There’s no real change in expectations in terms of temperatures and rather unpleasant humidity. I am hopeful that most adverse weather will hold off til the evening hours in The Woodlands, but the reality is that we cannot entirely rule out some showers or even a thunderstorm through the afternoon. The race organizers will be plugged in and act accordingly. We wish everyone participating, the best of luck!!

Temperatures, as noted will be kind of humid. At some point in the 4 to 7 PM timeframe, there’s going to be a significant drop in temperatures from the 80s into the 70s and eventually 60s. We may drop all the way into the 50s by Sunday morning.

Sunday

Showers will end through the morning. We may not see complete clearing on Sunday, but I will hold out hope for some sunny breaks. Wind gusts will be up on Sunday, around 20 mph inland and near 30 mph at the coast. It will feel like early spring!

Monday and Tuesday

We will quickly lose that slightly more refreshing air mass and transition back to more typical mid to late spring type weather conditions with onshore flow and a return to a shower or storm chance later Monday and especially Tuesday. Temperatures will remain cool with highs only near 70 Monday and mid-70s Tuesday.

Rest of next week

We warm back into the 80s by Wednesday and Thursday. With that will come additional unsettled weather. Shower or storm chances will persist across the area. However, many spots will remain dry I would assume; the storm chances will be more isolated than scattered or widespread.

In brief: Heavy rain has led to a number of flood watches, warnings, and advisories near Houston today. Rain is expected to slowly wind down after sunset.

Apologies for the later than hoped for post. Eric and I have both been engaged in other obligations today.

So far today, some areas west of Houston have seen nearly 5 inches of rain, with a Harris County Flood Control gauge north of Pattison registering over 4.5 inches so far. If you’re traveling north or west of Downtown, just be advised there may be street flooding in spots.

A look at radar this evening shows torrential rain north of Kingwood, tracking north of Liberty. A second area of absolutely torrential rainfall is centered from just south of Spring through Jersey Village down to near Memorial City. Additional moderate to heavy rain continues to the west.

Over the next few hours, this rain is only going to creep east slowly. This almost certainly will not make it to the coast. So, yes, you’re shut out again down there. But across southern Montgomery, central Harris, and areas west of Harris County and northeast into Liberty County, periods of heavy rainfall will continue. The heaviest rain should begin to calm down after 7-8 PM, with showers continuing for a little while longer.

Bottom line: Heavy rain will continue for a little while longer, and street flooding is a good possibility. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow, but they don’t currently look to be as robust as today. Eric will update more on that for you in the morning.