Matt will be leaving Texas, but he’s not leaving Space City Weather

In brief: Nothing about the site is changing, but Matt has a life update to share.

A couple things happened last Friday. First, it was announced that Houston is finally getting back the WNBA team it always deserved, as the Connecticut Sun will be relocating here in 2027. Friday was also the beginning of a transition for me, Matt, the managing editor of this website. I resigned from my position at CenterPoint Energy. Let’s just get this out of the way first: It was a privilege to work with and learn from so many people at that organization. I am grateful for the opportunity they gave me, especially as one of the voices who was critical of them in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl.

I found the commitment there to continuous improvement refreshing. Every time I engaged with executives from the CEO on down at CenterPoint, the first question they would ask me is “do you have what you need?” I don’t think anyone in the area can fully comprehend how much work is being done across the region by CenterPoint, both in response to 2024’s disasters and in anticipation of the absolutely insane growth in power demand coming to Texas. And quite frankly, I got to build something really cool stuff that is built to last and will continue to help further their preparation and resiliency to disasters. I leave them in the more than capable hands of Lena Dziechowski, who is an absolute rock star of a meteorologist. I was incredibly lucky to work with her, and I wish her and CenterPoint absolutely nothing but success going forward.

Now, as they say, some personal news. “The only constant in life is change,” is a quote often misattributed to the Greek philosopher Heraclitus. Whoever said it, however, was correct. The world is in constant flux. It’s partially why I enjoy weather forecasting. Our lives are all full of change. I’ve been in Houston for almost 15 years now, half of which have included children, a process that in and of itself was full of challenges and changes in expectations. Job changes, some by choice, some not, living changes, health changes, and on and on. Now my family will be making another big change in the coming months, relocating from Houston to Connecticut. Houston gets the Sun (Comets), Connecticut gets us.

Obviously, this was not an easy decision, but in the interest of transparency to our readers, something we always do, I’ll share with you some reasons why. The first and foremost reason is family. My father will be turning 80 in a year and a half, and quite frankly, seeing him and my mom once a year has started to weigh on my conscience a bit. They still live in New Jersey and don’t exactly enjoy traveling, and with grandchildren in the mix now, it feels a bit unfair. A move closer will allow us to see each other more. We’ve been fortunate and blessed to have my wife’s parents relocate to the Houston area most of the time we’ve been here, and in many ways it also feels unfair to leave them. But they also travel a bit better, and we will be happy to return to visit Houston once or twice a year (except not in August or September, sorry).

And in that vein, another reason is that quite frankly, I do worry about our vulnerability here to hurricanes, and not just Beryl-type storms—much bigger storms. There’s a commitment all around toward building resiliency in our region and things are better now than they were 5 or 10 years ago. But I’ll be honest, the fact that the “Ike Dike” is still mainly a plan on paper nearly 20 years after Ike is a little troubling. Metaphorically, my concern for hurricanes is what keeps me up at night. I take this stuff seriously. It’s a passion, a hobby, and a job. After 15 years of this, I’m ready to tap the brakes a bit for my own sanity before this literally keeps me up at night. Sure, the odds in any given year are exceptionally low. But when this is what you do for a living and you know more than most people about storms, it doesn’t always feel that way. Also, our summers have been getting hotter here, which is going to continue as the climate changes. I can live with cold, even if it’s annoying (especially in March in New England), but 9 of our 15 hottest summers have occurred since 2009. Sprawl and urban heat island are certainly part of that, but so is a warming Gulf and climate change. Some people love the heat or can tolerate it, and that’s great. I can too, but within limits. 2023 was the most miserable summer I’ve ever experienced, and I’d rather not go through that again.

So what does that mean for the site? And for that matter The Eyewall? The answer is nothing. I am going to continue to be the primary producer of posts for The Eyewall. And I will continue to lend Eric a hand with SCW, posting regularly on Fridays and hopefully having the ability to do some extra-curricular stuff to help you understand Houston’s weather better. In fact, having me an hour ahead of Houston may even be a bit more advantageous to getting some stuff out sooner during bigger weather events or important forecasts. The idea is that you’ll notice nothing different.

To say we’ll miss Houston is an understatement. I outlined my weathery concerns above, but the reality is that the people here are amazing. The community here is amazing. The passion and pride is amazing. I love how Houston can be honest about some of its shortcomings but then the second some outsider tries to talk bad about it, we come at them with pitchforks. Do not mess with Houston. Houston is actually how people outside Texas envision Austin to be: It’s quirky, fun, it functions, it’s full of energy, literally and figuratively, and it’s woefully underrated outside of Texas. Sorry, ATX…HOU is cooler. It has the most amazing food of any place I’ve lived or visited. You can even find pizza here that more than meets the mark. I may be getting good pizza in Connecticut, but I will probably desperately miss the rest of the food available here. Did I think I’d live in Houston when I graduated college? Nope. Am I glad I did? Yes.

We’ll remain here in Houston for a few more months before the move. I’ll be taking on a new full-time role helping commodities traders with weather intelligence, getting more into the weeds of the weather forecasting that I also love. But Eric and I just wanted you to know about my change in situation before it happened. And we want to be sure you are also reassured that nothing is changing for the site. Thanks for adopting this Yankee over the years, and thanks as always for supporting the mission Eric and I strive to achieve.

More of the same for Houston, plus a roofcast for the Astros opening weekend

In brief: Very nice spring weather, albeit more typical for May will continue in Houston through the weekend. A slight change toward better rain chances remains in the cards next week, but there are reasons to have some healthy skepticism.

Despite somewhat underwhelming maximum temperatures so far in this period of warm weather, Houston remains on track to basically lock in a top 5 warmest March on record and the warmest March since 2020, if not longer. Yesterday, Bush only hit 84°, while Hobby managed 82°. Let’s take a run at the forecast.

Today and Thursday

It would appear that we’ll be seeing more of the same today and tomorrow. It should be a touch hotter on both days, with highs likely topping off somewhere in the 85-to-87-degree range. Originally, it looked like Thursday could be perhaps a skosh cooler but that appears to be an imperceptible difference at this point. Other than that, expect sun and a few fair weather clouds after some patchy morning fog or low clouds. *Roofcast:* Based on this forecast, the roof will probably be closed for a 3 PM game on Opening Day at Daikin Park. Odds will be higher that it will open for night games through the weekend.

Friday

Our best chance at approaching 90 degrees continues to look as if it will come on Friday. I still think we’ll come up just short. Yesterday I said to put 8 bucks on 89° and a dollar each on 88 and 90+. Today, I might say to put 7 dollars on 89°, 2 dollars on 88°, and a buck on 90+. Once again it should be sunny.

Precipitable water (PWAT) anomalies will be below average on Friday morning, indicating that the air is generally dry. (Pivotal Weather)

Overnight lows will remain fairly comfortable, generally in the 60s with humidity that isn’t too terribly high. In fact, as you can see from the precipitable water anomaly map above, the air mass is actually running a bit drier than normal on Friday morning, meaning humidity should be kept in check. Overall, conditions in our neck of the woods have not been too uncomfortable or exceptionally dry either over the last week or so, which feels like a bit of a rarity. But it’s what sometimes makes early spring the best season here in Houston, even when it’s hotter than normal.

The weekend

Saturday will be something of an interesting temperature forecast. I would still say much of the area sees upper-70s for highs, but if the air is just dry enough, we may bust hotter, with highs in the low-80s in spots.

“Refreshing” may be a strong word, but it will be a bit cooler this weekend, especially on Saturday. (Pivotal Weather)

Either way, it looks like a lovely day. Sunday should be much the same with morning lows in the 50s or low-60s and highs in the low-80s and sunshine.

Next week

We continue to see modeling suggest we go to a slightly more active, wetter weather pattern across Texas. Whether or not that actually translates to significant rain for the Houston area remains to be seen. But if you look at what the upper-level weather pattern is expected to do next week, this big ridge that has been anchored in either the West or Plains since last week will finally shoot eastward, leaving Texas in a weaker transition zone between ridge and trough.

The massive ridge of high pressure that’s been responsible for record-breaking heat across the country should focus more in the East next week, leaving Texas a little more open to rain chances. (Tropical Tidbits)

This should allow for some Pacific moisture to infiltrate Mexico and Texas. And if we don’t see organized thunderstorms per se, we will probably see a scattering of typical spring storms across the state. Hopefully that nets us a couple inches of much-needed rain, but time will tell. One thing that could wreck that is if the high pressure in the East flexes too much, meaning we just end up on the western edge of it rather than on the outside of it. Also, as noted yesterday, in long-term droughts, these things have a habit of going “poof” so I’m keeping my expectations low for now.

Temperatures march upward in Houston the next couple of days

In brief: A lot of rinse and repeat for Houston the rest of this week, with temperatures hotter today and tomorrow and then perhaps the hottest of the year so far on Friday. But more pleasant weather arrives for the weekend.

Happy Tuesday, y’all! Matt here, stepping in for Eric for a couple days this week so he can focus on space matters. Eric was kind enough to preview our summer thoughts yesterday while we experience our own sorta summer preview here this week. That said, we only hit 84 degrees yesterday, which was not exactly terrible.

Today & tomorrow

And today, we’ll probably do a couple hotter than that. And on Wednesday? Just a little hotter. Look for solid mid-80s today and mid to upper-80s tomorrow. Morning fog in spots will give way to ample sunshine and a few fair-weather clouds. If you squint, you may make out a few raindrops later today, particularly around Galveston Bay. It’s too early in the year for sea breeze storm season (or “rain o’clock” as I lovingly refer to it), but models are showing a few light showers later.

Thursday & Friday

Temperatures on Thursday might actually slip a degree or so, into the mid-80s. Will the roof be open on Opening Day at Daikin Park? Place your bets!

For the UH game and Big Ten reunion Thursday night, it looks delightful, with temperatures in the 70s.

Friday’s forecast high temperature map looks more like something you’d see around May 20th. (Pivotal Weather)

Now, Friday is when we may see our hottest temperatures of the year so far. With a cool front approaching, a compressed air mass, and upper level temperatures well above normal for March, it stands to reason that 90 degrees is attainable. If I were a $10 Cowboy like Charley Crockett, I would place $8 on 89° and a dollar each on 88 and 90 degrees. Could we do hotter? Absolutely. But I would say those odds are fairly low right now. Either way, it will be quite hot for late March.

Weekend

A healthy but moisture-starved cool front will push through the area on Saturday. You will notice a change in things Saturday afternoon, with highs in the upper-70s, slightly lower humidity and northeasterly breeze. For now, I don’t expect much in the way of showers with the front, but I wouldn’t say we’d entirely rule one or two out.

Saturday’s forecast high temperature map looks like something you’d see around April 10th or so, pretty close to normal for this time of year. (Pivotal Weather)

Then on Sunday it looks like we inch back into the lower 80s after a refreshing morning with lows in the 50s. Lots of events going on around the area this weekend, and the weather looks cooperative right now. P.S.: Don’t forget the sunscreen!

Hints of change next week?

It’s too soon to start discussing specifics, but it does appear that the pattern will begin to change a little next week. Eric alluded to this yesterday. We should expect to see additional rain chances enter the picture by midweek, and the 8-to-14-day rainfall outlook is currently medium confidence above normal.

Above normal rainfall may enter the chat next week. (NOAA CPC)

You always have to use some caution when you’re in long-term drought like we are right now; often times these wetter pattern change forecasts in the models end up being mirages more than anything. We’ll place a bookmark in this once more and check back again tomorrow.

Houston, what were you like in the 90s?

In brief: Houston is going to be doing some heavy flirting with 90 degrees beginning today and continuing into next week. That’s it. That’s the summary.

If you are Very Online™ or even if you’re not, surely you’ve seen someone post their memories of the 90s in the latest viral trend. Well, we may once again find out what we were like in the 90s for the first sustained period since October.

Flirting with the 90s, a Houston story. (Weather Bell)

Today through Monday

Not a lot to say here. There could be some late night or early morning fog each day, but otherwise it looks clear, with nothing worse than some passing high clouds at times. Temperatures will warm into the mid or upper-80s today, upper 80s to near 90 tomorrow and Sunday, and perhaps near 90 again Monday with a slight chance of slightly drier air.

Houston Rodeo Forecast

Hard to believe that we’re coming to the end of the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this weekend. Temperatures should fall rather quickly from the 80s into the 70s this evening and Sunday evening. It will be hot tomorrow, with upper-80s to near 90 degrees so if you are attending, just keep that in mind and make sure to stay hydrated, preferably with water if you’ll be doing any of the outside attractions.

Tuesday through Thursday

Even if we manage to cool down some on Sunday night or Monday, we will quickly bounce back well into the 80s next week. And yes, we will flirt with a chance of 90 degrees every day it appears. Blind Melon’s “No Rain” (1992) is a nice companion soundtrack next week.

Rainfall forecast maps but make it a 90s movie. Pulp Fiction (1994)

Later next week

Can we get a cold front next weekend? That’s the question. There are strong signs within model data that we may see a brief cooldown next Saturday and Sunday (think highs in the 70s or low 80s). Right now, it does not appear that any kind of cold front will come with meaningful rainfall but we may at least get to enjoy some slightly less May-like weather for a few days. Stay tuned.