Matt Lanza

In brief: Houston firmly ramps into pre-summer this weekend with several chances at 90 degree highs between Saturday and Tuesday. Lower-end chances for a couple feisty thunderstorms exist today and perhaps around midweek next week before we eye a possible cooldown next weekend.

Pre-summer will be enroute to the Houston area over the next several days. That said, we’ve finally gotten some rain here. In fact, over the last 10 days, most of the area has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rainfall. Soil moisture has not entirely caught up to where it should be for this time of year, but it has improved vastly this month.

While we heat up, we will also be dodging some rain chances here and there.

Today

The area is highlighted in a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms today, as there will be a very slight chance for a couple pop up storms later this afternoon. The highest chance for a couple storms would be north of I-10 and east of I-45, but with a springtime air mass, some sunshine, and instability, it’s not out of the question that a couple storms pop up outside of that quadrant of the area. Most of us will remain dry though. Highs will be in the mid to locally upper 80s today.

There may also be a couple more organized storms late this evening in Louisiana that drop north to south and could graze locations east of I-45 as well, though probably closer to Lufkin and Beaumont than Houston.

Weekend

The weekend should be mostly dry, but we cannot entirely rule out a pop-up shower or very rogue thunderstorm. Otherwise, it’ll be spring swampy with highs well into the 80s to perhaps near 90 degrees and plentiful humidity. Winds from the south at 10 to 15 mph will be what you get for the MS 150 ride this weekend. Some higher gusts over 20 mph are possible, especially in open area or on hill crests. Good luck to all the participants.

Monday & Tuesday

These should be our hottest days. While most forecast highs are into the low-90s right now, I would not be shocked if recent rains and some model tendency to get overeager lead us to see temperatures closer than 89 to 91 degrees here rather than 92 to 94 degrees. We shall see.

Other than the slightest of chances of a shower or storm with daytime heating, it looks just plain ole hot and humid. By Tuesday evening there may be a better organized line of storms dropping south from Dallas, but I currently expect it to fizzle out before getting here. Probably not an issue, but we’ll keep watch.

Later next week

Wednesday and Thursday should also be hot days with upper 80s to 90 or so. However, there is a chance of showers or a thunderstorm on those days, a slightly better chance. This may be a precursor to what could be a fairly strong cold front at the end of the week. The front may (should?) allow for us to have another refreshing series of days next weekend.

The signal in modeling is pretty stout, so I’m cautiously favoring a noteworthy cooldown next weekend. More on that Monday.

In brief: Drought conditions have begun to improve across Houston, and that should hopefully continue with more rain expected on Saturday and next week. It will also turn quite a bit cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with early spring type temperatures!

Let’s start with a drought update. The latest report dropped yesterday, and we saw notable improvement across the Houston area, as you’d expect after last weekend.

We should see additional improvement next week, assuming we get the forecast rain tomorrow.

Today

Watch for some patchy fog this morning in spots, but otherwise expect a mix of clouds and sun. We should push up into the mid-80s.

Saturday

Alright, so tomorrow is the tricky forecast day all around. A couple showers are possible in the morning, but we aren’t currently expecting too much in the way of rain through midday. Showers will become a bit more numerous in the afternoon hours across the area. A few thunderstorms are also possible. Here’s a 4 PM forecast radar from the HRRR model just to set the mood a little in terms of what things could look like tomorrow afternoon.

As the afternoon turns to evening, we should see more frequent periods of showers and rain across the area. The back edge of the rain will be slow to advance through Houston, probably not reaching the coast until Sunday morning. Generally speaking, we should see a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rainfall across the area. Some isolated spots will get more, and it’s conceivable that a couple spots see less too. Any areas seeing more rain may also see localized street flooding.

For the Ironman Triathlon, Eric covered things in depth yesterday. There’s no real change in expectations in terms of temperatures and rather unpleasant humidity. I am hopeful that most adverse weather will hold off til the evening hours in The Woodlands, but the reality is that we cannot entirely rule out some showers or even a thunderstorm through the afternoon. The race organizers will be plugged in and act accordingly. We wish everyone participating, the best of luck!!

Temperatures, as noted will be kind of humid. At some point in the 4 to 7 PM timeframe, there’s going to be a significant drop in temperatures from the 80s into the 70s and eventually 60s. We may drop all the way into the 50s by Sunday morning.

Sunday

Showers will end through the morning. We may not see complete clearing on Sunday, but I will hold out hope for some sunny breaks. Wind gusts will be up on Sunday, around 20 mph inland and near 30 mph at the coast. It will feel like early spring!

Monday and Tuesday

We will quickly lose that slightly more refreshing air mass and transition back to more typical mid to late spring type weather conditions with onshore flow and a return to a shower or storm chance later Monday and especially Tuesday. Temperatures will remain cool with highs only near 70 Monday and mid-70s Tuesday.

Rest of next week

We warm back into the 80s by Wednesday and Thursday. With that will come additional unsettled weather. Shower or storm chances will persist across the area. However, many spots will remain dry I would assume; the storm chances will be more isolated than scattered or widespread.

In brief: Heavy rain has led to a number of flood watches, warnings, and advisories near Houston today. Rain is expected to slowly wind down after sunset.

Apologies for the later than hoped for post. Eric and I have both been engaged in other obligations today.

So far today, some areas west of Houston have seen nearly 5 inches of rain, with a Harris County Flood Control gauge north of Pattison registering over 4.5 inches so far. If you’re traveling north or west of Downtown, just be advised there may be street flooding in spots.

A look at radar this evening shows torrential rain north of Kingwood, tracking north of Liberty. A second area of absolutely torrential rainfall is centered from just south of Spring through Jersey Village down to near Memorial City. Additional moderate to heavy rain continues to the west.

Over the next few hours, this rain is only going to creep east slowly. This almost certainly will not make it to the coast. So, yes, you’re shut out again down there. But across southern Montgomery, central Harris, and areas west of Harris County and northeast into Liberty County, periods of heavy rainfall will continue. The heaviest rain should begin to calm down after 7-8 PM, with showers continuing for a little while longer.

Bottom line: Heavy rain will continue for a little while longer, and street flooding is a good possibility. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow, but they don’t currently look to be as robust as today. Eric will update more on that for you in the morning.

In brief: Daily rain chances will remain for Houston over the next several days, but admittedly on most of those days it seems unlikely we’ll cash in. While there will be a couple opportunities for legitimate rain chances over the next 6 to 7 days, Central and West Texas may end up in a much better spot than Houston for now.

Side note: We wish the Artemis II crew a safe return, as they splash down this evening (just after 7 PM CT) off the coast of Southern California. The weather looks good.

We hear you, reader. We talk about rain chances more often than we actually seem to get them. It seems true. It feels true. And I don’t disagree. We’ve been in a shaky pattern for several months now where rain chances, especially out around days 3 to 7 look promising, only to disappoint when the bill comes due. Is it drought or a model bias? Both? I’m not totally sure. But I do know that fading the rain chances has worked more often than not lately.

Now, we did see just shy of an inch of rain yesterday near Eagle Lake at a CenterPoint gauge. But that’s way out there in Colorado County. Still, that helps (especially for farmers that are struggling with this constant battle of stress that’s been with us for a few growing seasons now). But for most of us in Houston seeking rain, it’s just been a frustrating go of it. Let’s walk through things based on what we know this morning.

Today

We will see at least isolated to scattered downpours across the area today. Many of you probably won’t see much rain, but some neighborhoods could pick up a quick inch or two. The HRRR model forecast below shows isolated pockets of heavier rain in between a lot of nothing. Don’t focus on the specific locations here, but that’s the general gist of what to expect.

Other than that, expect clouds, some sun, and highs in the lower 80s.

Saturday

Rain chances will probably favor Central Texas over East Texas on Saturday. Still, a few showers are possible west of Houston tomorrow. Highs will be a touch warmer, into the low or mid-80s.

Sunday

More substantial rain chances will creep closer on Sunday, but they may still remain primarily west of Houston. I would expect to see some sort of thunderstorm cluster or line of storms enter the Brazos Valley during the afternoon hours. However, the trajectory of a disturbance in the upper atmosphere and the general southwest to northeast movement of things across Texas this weekend may lead to most of the storm activity passing northwest and north of Houston. I would set my expectations low for Sunday in terms of rainfall, unless you live in College Station or perhaps Huntsville or Lake Livingston.

Those that do see rain could see hefty rain, however, as the atmosphere will be pretty juiced up this weekend. So if you hit a persistent area of rain, just be wary of some street flooding.

Monday

The pattern shifts a bit more eastward on Sunday night and Monday. We should again at least see a smattering of activity around the area, but I would once again set my expectations fairly low. Highs on Monday will be in the mid-80s with lows in the 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday

Houston will be caught between a building upper-level ridge in the Southeast that’s going to lead to some impressive, record warmth next week in the Eastern U.S. and a deepening trough in the West. These situations don’t typically lead to us seeing the rain we otherwise could, and it could be a situation where there are daily thunderstorms impacting West and Central Texas, while the Houston area gets the shaft. Obviously, this could change, but again, the theme today is to keep the expectations low. And maybe go wash your car. Yeah. That should do the trick.

Temperatures will remain well into the 80s next week.