In brief: Houston has a really nice weekend ahead of us with 70s and sunshine. Next week gets a little trickier with a storm system Tuesday that could deliver some strong storms, followed by another round of very nice weather.
As the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo kicks off with the BBQ cookoff this weekend and the parade tomorrow and Mardi Gras rolls on in Galveston, southeast Texas will be treated to some really solid spring weather. But we will be watching next Tuesday for the potential of some stronger thunderstorms.
Saturday’s forecast highs look rather warm across the region except in Galveston! (Pivotal Weather)
Today through Sunday
All three days should be partly to mostly sunny with highs in the 70s today, near 80 tomorrow, and back in the 70s on Sunday behind a weak little backdoor front coming from Louisiana. Morning lows will be in the 50s or upper-40s in spots. There may be some fog around tomorrow morning, and there is a chance of some fog clinging to the coast tomorrow afternoon. For Mardi Gras in Galveston, bring a hoodie. If you’re going to pre-Rodeo events or scoping out the Dynamo (and Messi) this weekend or anything else, it’s going to be great.
Monday
Much stronger onshore flow begins to establish on Monday, leading to warmer temps, higher humidity, clouds, and some patchy fog. A few isolated showers or pockets of drizzle cannot be ruled out. After morning lows near 60, daytime highs will probably push to near 80 degrees.
Tuesday
Tuesday is going to be an interesting day. There is a very clear-cut severe weather risk Tuesday as a disturbance and front approach. The question locally is whether the “cap” can break.
For those new to Houston or that aren’t familiar, often during springtime severe weather events, Houston’s geography allows it to be somewhat protected by what we call a “cap” in the atmosphere. It’s just a point above our heads where the air turns warmer and drier all of a sudden, which physically essentially “caps” how tall clouds (and thus thunderstorms) can grow to be. Houston often avoids the fate of the rest of the southern Plains’s reputation for being tornado alley in spring because of this.
Tuesday’s severe weather outlook currently extends into Montgomery and Liberty Counties, but it will be a close call in the Houston area. (NOAA SPC)
The challenge for us, especially 5 days out, is determining whether or not that “cap” will be eroded or break. And that’s just not really a high-confidence parameter to predict. That said, the highest risk for severe storms on Tuesday will clearly be to our north. But the risk of some strong to severe storms close to the Houston area, especially on the north side of I-10 is not zero.
Otherwise, Tuesday looks breezy and warm, with highs around 80 degrees.
Rest of next week
Behind Tuesday night’s front, the rain and storm threat will end and much cooler, drier air will push back into the area. It looks like a wonderful finish to next week. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will probably be near 70 with morning lows in the 40s and 50s.
In brief: After a very cold end to this week, Houston begins to warm up this weekend. It’s possible some of this weekend’s rain begins as mixed rain and sleet tonight and Saturday morning, but no accumulation will occur. A decent rain for parts of the area this weekend will lead to quieter, warmer weather and patchy fog next week.
Yesterday ended up being the fourth coldest day of winter on an average temperature basis, with the high and low combining to average about 35 degrees. Our coldest day this winter was back during our January snowstorm, with a daily average of 32.5 degrees. One of the challenges with “daily average” is that if you have a high temperature at midnight, as we did on Wednesday, it doesn’t necessarily capture how the true day was. Whatever the case, it has been a cold finish to the week.
Today
This morning? Not quite as cold.
The change in temperatures between today and Thursday morning shows most places on the west side around 10 degrees warmer, whereas most places on the east side were about 2 to 6 degrees warmer. (NOAA)
We were probably helped by some clouds that started to roll in after sunset. That said, it’s still chilly this morning, and with the cloud cover, temperatures will struggle again today. The forecast high is around 40 degrees, and there’s at least some chance we never get there and stay mired in the 30s all day. Bundle up.
Tonight: “Conversational” sleet?
Temperatures won’t go very far tonight; they’ll probably stay in the mid to upper-30s, rising a bit toward sunrise possibly. There is a chance of some light rain or drizzle both tonight and Saturday morning. With the cold, dry air mass still in place, I would not be at all surprised to see some of the precipitation fall as sleet in spots. It won’t accumulate, but this is the kind of setup that would periodically lead to you leaping out of your chair because you “thought you heard pinging outside.” And indeed, you’d look and see some ice pellets falling or a small gathering of them in your gutters. Whatever the case, conversational wintry precip is possible tonight and early on tomorrow, but again no real accumulation will occur.
Rest of Saturday and Sunday
As Saturday progresses, onshore flow continues, and temperatures warm we will see more and more scattered showers develop (no more sleet). A few heavier showers or even some non-severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon, especially south and east of Houston. That continues into tomorrow night and Sunday before the whole thing shifts east of the area by midday Sunday, leading to some gradual clearing.
Total rainfall this weekend looks to be around 1 to 2 inches along and southeast of Highway 59 to the coast, with around an inch in the city, and lesser amounts north and west. (Pivotal Weather)
All told, this should be a good soaking for coastal areas in particular. As you go north and west of the city, rain totals will sharply drop off to under an inch and probably around or under than a half-inch from Conroe through Columbus. Sunday’s high temperatures will bounce back into the 50s.
Monday through Wednesday
We are going to head back to spring next week, with a big warm up Monday (upper-60s to near 7), Tuesday (low to mid-70s), and Wednesday (mid to upper-70s). We should see sunshine return as well in this time. There will probably be some locally dense fog Monday morning, so just be aware of that. And with warm weather after a decent cool spell, you can almost guarantee that sea fog will return to coastal areas for at least a time next week.
Break out the shorts next Tuesday and Wednesday (shown here) with highs deep into the 70s. (Pivotal Weather)
Our next cold front looks to arrive sometime Thursday with just a slight cooldown for us. No sign of additional freezing temperatures is showing up in the forecast. But, as it goes, things can always change. We’ll continue to watch.
In brief: Houston should strap in for a stretch of ups and downs in the temperature department culminating in a return to winter-like cold next week. In between, a slight chance of strong storms east of Houston Saturday, and another round of rain Tuesday into Wednesday. Our biggest question mark is exactly how cold it gets next week.
Happy Valentine’s Day to all! Of course, we don’t need a singular day out of the year to know you love us. We love you too. (No, but seriously, we always want to share our appreciation of your support, so thank you). If you love warm weather or you love cold weather or loathe either, we have something in the forecast for you.
Today & tonight
There are some lower and mid-level clouds moving across the region this morning, as warmer, more humid air is trying to begin returning to the region. While the sun may poke out here and there, look for mostly a cloudy-ish day. A few showers or a very isolated thunderstorm may move through later this afternoon. The vast majority of the day should be dry, however. Highs will eventually reach the upper-50s, though it may not occur until later in the evening due to the clouds. In fact, temperatures should actually keep rising tonight until they reach the mid-60s on Saturday morning.
Saturday
The main concern for Saturday will be severe weather potential. We are fairly confident that the bulk, if not all severe weather will remain to our east tomorrow. If you are traveling into Louisiana or Mississippi, there could be a fairly noteworthy severe weather outbreak, however.
Saturday’s severe weather risk pretty low for the Houston area, but it will increase quickly to our east. (NOAA SPC)
That said, we will likely still see showers and storms around the Houston area throughout the day but in a bit of a disjointed, improv, hit and miss type fashion. Look for that throughout the day, likely ending as perhaps a narrow line of developing thunderstorms when a cold front exits the area after 3 or 4 PM. Temperatures will push well into the 70s on Saturday, possibly even near 80 degrees in spots south of I-10 or to our east.
It’ll be downright balmy tomorrow with a few spots having a chance to hit 80 degrees, mainly to our south and east. (Pivotal Weather)
Sunday
Oh, you’ll be greeted by a casual 35 degree drop in temperatures on Sunday morning, from just shy of 80 to near 40 degrees. Some areas will likely dip into the 30s too. It will also be on the breezy side, especially near the coast with Galveston likely seeing some wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. So expect Sunday to feel a lot more like winter. The winds will lighten up and temps should warm into the 50s or even near 60 though, so it won’t be too bad of an afternoon.
Temperatures should drop about 30 to 35 degrees between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. (Pivotal Weather)
Monday & Tuesday
Monday, we rise to near 60 degrees, while Tuesday should push into the mid-60s. Watch for showers by Tuesday afternoon.
Back to winter
A much more aggressive return to winter is in the cards for later next week. The showers on Tuesday afternoon will precede a storm system that passes by on Wednesday morning. To be frank, the model handling of this storm has left a lot to be desired, as there have been a lot of run to run shifts, with even some model runs implying rain ends as sleet or snow north of Houston. That’s not what we’d call the “base case” outcome, but it’s out there as a minor possibility at least. Whatever the case, we have a couple more days to pin this down, so I’d just ask you to bear with us.
Because of the uncertainty we know that while it will likely get quite cold later next week, we aren’t quite entirely sure of the amplitude yet. I would suspect that Houston proper sees upper-20s for low temperatures, while outlying areas would be somewhat colder. But there is a wide variety of possible outcomes to the point where realistically Houston could be as cold as 20 degrees or as “mild” as 35 degrees by Thursday morning. We are fairly confident that Thursday morning would be the coldest morning.
Houston may dip into the mid-20s or even a bit colder next Thursday morning. There is still a good deal of uncertainty still, and realistically, anything from as cold as 20 degrees to as “mild” as 35 degrees is on the table. (Pivotal Weather)
If you live north of Houston, get your plant coverings prepared once again. In Houston and points south, just keep watching and waiting. More to come on this.
In brief: Houston’s rinse and repeat of periodic fog and very warm, humid conditions will continue through at least Sunday. Rain chances nudge up a bit next week, and we still suspect a front may eventually, possibly arrive here later in the week. We also dive in further on sea fog today.
More on sea fog
Eric’s talked a lot about sea fog this week, and it remains a pestilence across the coastal waters. Galveston finally broke free of fog for a while late yesterday. But, it’s back now. And if you’re asking yourself whether or not this is normal, the answer is actually yes. February and December are our two biggest fog months in Houston, particularly near the coast. Why? As Eric explained earlier this week, the process of sea fog involves cool shelf waters and warm, humid air crossing over them. In December, it’s a combination of our first cold of the winter, followed by a warm-up. Or it could be driven by non-sea fog, or what we call “radiation fog,” which is just fog that happens over land due to radiational cooling under clear skies at night, not the advective sea fog. The key difference? Radiation fog usually dissipates by mid to late morning. Sea fog may stick around or appear at random points during the entire day.
Over the last 20 years, the frequency of dense fog advisories in the Houston area (bottom panel above) has a double peak, first in December and then again in February through early March. (Iowa State Environmental Mesonet)
February usually marks the transition to spring, and the cold of winter has taken its toll on the shelf waters just offshore. The combination of that first taste of spring-like warmth and the cold Gulf water happens most often between February and early March. Once we get to mid-March, the cold spells usually relax, the shelf waters begin to warm, and the mechanism for sea fog disappears. Thus, the frequency of dense fog advisories plummets.
Dozens of vessels are waiting offshore of Texas and Louisiana to come ashore. In addition, many are likely stuck in port too awaiting departure. (marinetraffic.com)
My previous day job role in the LNG industry required some serious fog forecasting chops, and let me tell you, for those operating or running critical businesses in Gulf Coast ports or forecasting for them, these events are full of stress. I have likened the stress of working a one-week fog event to that of the stress involved with forecasting a hurricane. You can click here to view a near-real time ship traffic map. Notice the clusters of ships amassing off the coast? They’re waiting to arrive in ports like Houston, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Sabine Pass, etc. Harder to see are the numerous vessels also “stuck” in port that have to depart. Each day lost to fog can cost companies tens of millions of dollars or more. Stack it up over a week, and you can do the math. It’s a lot of money. No pressure.
Today through Sunday
Does it end? How many more records can we break? This is the 6th warmest four day stretch on record in winter (December through February) in Houston. We’ve averaged about 75.1° so far this week. The record for four days is 76.4° set back in December of 2021. Yesterday was our fourth consecutive record high (83°), breaking 2019’s 82°.
Today’s record of 86° from 2017 seems safe. Clouds and fog should again hold us back a bit, so again look for low-80s for highs. Tomorrow? It may be a tick or two warmer, but the record of 87°, also set in 2017 would appear safe at the moment. Let’s not forget Super Sunday! More of the same. Another day in the low-80s, which is hopefully around the same value as Patrick Mahomes’s passer rating. Fly Eagles, Fly!
As for the fog, look for continued chances of afternoon or early evening clearing at the coast and a bit less inland fog than we’ve seen this week. Still, it will be around, and it will be dense at times, so use caution driving particularly in the morning hours.
Next week
The first attempt at a cold front will actually occur Sunday. The front may sneak into the Brazos Valley or as far south as Huntsville or even Conroe. It won’t severely knock back temperatures, but it could cool things temporarily up that way by 10 degrees or so. It appears that the front retreats back north Monday and Tuesday before maybe finally making a swipe at the area Wednesday or Thursday.
While there are showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast next week, the total rainfall expected in our area is not particularly noteworthy. (Pivotal Weather)
We may begin to see more showers crop up each afternoon starting Tuesday. That could transition into a better chance of showers and storms by Thursday, pending an actual front getting here. I would not get too worked up about rain chances at this time; they don’t look too exciting. Still, we’ll see how the weekend changes affect that story Monday.
A stubborn, warm Southeast ridge (red and orange over the Southeast) will be battling some brutal cold up in Canada and the Upper Midwest. We’ll probably turn colder at times but probably not to serious freeze-territory. (Tropical Tidbits)
How cold will it get behind the front? Well, at this point, we’re fighting a battle between very, very warm conditions over the Southeast and very, very cold conditions up north. Western Canada looks to get punished next week. The forecast high temperature in Calgary from the European ensemble next Friday is -22 degrees. It may not get any warmer than minus 20 degrees there on a couple days. Will any of that cold get down here? A modified version of it might later next week, but I don’t know that we see even a widespread light freeze at this point. For now, expect a couple rounds of more muted cold here into mid-February with details to be sorted out next week.
