Matt Lanza

In brief: Houston will see gorgeous weather today and increasing clouds Saturday. Scattered showers are likely Sunday before the first of two fronts Monday. Winds will be gusty Sunday into Monday. It’s a second front Tuesday night that gives us the real cool stuff to close out next week.

Before we begin today, two quick housekeeping items. First, Galaxy Lights, presented by Reliant kicks off tonight! It finally feels a little more fall-like, so if you want to get yourself in a more festive mood, go check it out. And thanks to Reliant’s sponsorship of Space City Weather, you can get $5 off your tickets if you use code: GLSCW24!

Secondly, a reminder that our annual fundraiser continues. Y’all love the umbrellas and astronaut t’shirts. Thank you again for your support of the site!

Today and Saturday

The period between October 1st and yesterday has been the warmest on record in Houston for that range by a full 2 degrees, which over 45 days is pretty remarkable. We’re in the upper-40s officially this morning for the first time in about a month. This autumn has been anything but typical.

There will be lots of sunshine today with continued pleasant weather. Highs will top off in the mid-70s. Clouds will begin pushing in tonight and tomorrow, so look for less sun. Morning lows tomorrow should be in the 50s to perhaps near 60 degrees, while daytime highs will be near 80 degrees as long as we get a little sunshine.

Sunday

Isolated to scattered showers will begin to pop up late Saturday night and continue into Sunday. I don’t expect Sunday to be a washout right now, but there will be rain showers to dodge throughout the area and the day. Highs on Sunday should be in the low-80s after a very mild morning in the 60s or low-70s with increasing humidity. It will also be quite breezy on Sunday, with winds gusting to 25 mph or so, perhaps a bit stronger over the bays and at the coast.

Monday

The first volley in the transition to late autumn comes Monday with our scheduled cold front. There should be a line of thunderstorms that accompanies the front around midday on Monday. Some could have very gusty winds. Once those push east of the area, we’ll see a slow drop in humidity and slightly cooler weather. Ahead of the front, the morning will be breezy, but the wind will die off behind the front in the afternoon.

Rest of next week

Don’t be tricked by Monday’s front! Some folks will be quick to call “bust” with this, as Tuesday morning will only be in the 50s and Tuesday itself quite warm in the upper 70s.

It’s a second front early Wednesday morning that ushers in the real cool stuff. Wednesday will probably struggle to get to the mid-60s for highs, with lows in the 40s and some pockets of 30s Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Nice weather should continue into next weekend.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Sara made landfall in Honduras this morning. Rain totals in excess of 20 to 25 inches are possible in the northwest mountains there. Substantial rain is now likely in Belize over the next couple days as well.

The good news is that Sara should degenerate into a remnant low next week and get swiped east ahead of the cold fronts that push into the Gulf. Never say never, but that should close the books on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

In brief: Houston will see pleasant weather through Saturday before humidity surges back with a breeze on Sunday. A narrow line of thunderstorms accompanies a cold front on Monday, but the truly cool to cold air will lag behind by a day or so, arriving Tuesday night. By Wednesday, we may limp into the mid-60s for highs. It will feel like autumn.

Just a quick reminder to folks that our fundraiser kicked off yesterday! We are grateful for whatever support you are able and willing to provide, and thank you to those that pitched in on day one! I have to admit that astronaut t-shirt is <chef’s kiss>. Thank you so much again!

Today

It has not been as cool as it was yesterday morning and this morning in three or four weeks. Whatever the case, temperatures are generally in the 50s this morning once more.

We’ll see highs punch up into the mid-70s this afternoon. A light jacket should do this morning if that’s your thing. Overall, today looks wonderful.

Friday and Saturday

Tonight should be even a bit cooler than we’re seeing this morning. Look for lows down to near 50 degrees in Houston which means 40s in many suburbs and outlying areas. Highs will poke into the mid-70s again tomorrow, followed by mid-50s for lows and upper-70s for highs on Saturday. Both days look mainly sunny.

Sunday

Humidity will slowly return on Saturday, but you won’t really notice it until Sunday. You will also notice the wind on Sunday. Onshore winds pick up, gusting at times to 25 mph or so, perhaps even a little stronger over the water. Morning lows Sunday will start off in the 60s to near 70, warming up into the 80s for highs.

Monday through Wednesday

The forecast gets a little trickier next week, particularly trying to time everything out. A cool front is going to likely crash through the area Monday. It’s still too soon to say what it will bring, but the model signals seem to be hinting at a broken line of thunderstorms or a very narrow line of heavy showers and gusty winds. I wouldn’t entirely rule out some severe weather Monday, but it’s not the most likely outcome right now. We’ll keep an eye on things.

In terms of temperatures, it gets a little wonkier. The coldest air will lag the front by a day or two. So with the front crossing Monday, look for lows back into the 60s Monday night. Tuesday will be warm, and it should be a bit less humid. High temperatures will be well into the 70s to near 80 degrees. Then on Tuesday night, our first dose of colder air arrives, knocking us back into the mid-50s. And on Wednesday, even with oodles of sunshine, we will probably only do mid-60s at best. We’ll likely follow that with 40s Wednesday night and some wind to make it feel even colder. We may do 60s and 40s for a few days in a row, so it will feel more fall-like about a week before Thanksgiving.

Tropics

There remain no concerns from Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 (likely Sara later today) for Texas. Fronts will keep us safe. But PTC 19 is going to deliver some pretty rough weather to Central America, particularly in coastal Honduras, where upwards of 20 inches of rain is possible.

If you have trips planned or family back in these areas, keep an eye on Sara once it forms. There will likely be serious flooding in portions of Honduras, and if the storm wobbles offshore longer, they could also be dealing with a hurricane down there. Eventually this turns north toward the Yucatan, probably late in the weekend. It will then get caught up in the big cold front next week and kicked toward Florida. If there is good news, the odds of a major hurricane striking Florida are quite low now. Look for more at our companion site, The Eyewall in a bit.

In brief: Houston’s record warmth may relax some as showers today and a cool front tomorrow disrupt things. Another, slightly stronger cool front may be in the cards by Wednesday. This should introduce some temperature variability to the picture at least!

A couple quick housekeeping notes. I (Matt) will be at Fluff Bake Bar tomorrow for their Saturday bake sale! Come get some yummy (weather themed) goodies before they sell out! Also, our annual fundraiser will begin next week, so please check back Monday for more!

Houston hit a record high of 89° yesterday, tying the mark last set way back in 2018. This was our sixth tied or set record high since October 1st. We also set a new record warm minimum temperature of 74 degrees, besting the 1989 record of 72 degrees. This was the third record warm minimum this month. We have some variability in the forecast at least, with a cold front that flirts with us this weekend, followed by perhaps a more substantial front next week.

Today

In the meantime, more of the same. It will be warm and quite humid again today. We’ve already got scattered showers peppered on the radar, mainly in the western half of the area.

Look for this to continue with perhaps more of a gradual north and northwest focus to things today. Whatever the case, keep an umbrella handy in case one passes through. Highs in the 80s but a bit less warm than yesterday.

Excessive rainfall risk is around a level 2 of 4, or a slight risk for areas north and west of Houston today and a 1 of 4, marginal risk in Houston and south. It’s possible that one or two storms become strong to severe in the Brazos Valley in particular with gusty winds or hail possible.

Weekend cold front

The cold front will reach the Brazos Valley by about Midnight tonight, Houston by sunrise or so, and the coast by 8 or 9 AM on Saturday. Additional showers, downpours, or rumbles of thunder could accompany the front overnight. You will notice a difference behind the front, with humidity falling off a bit and temperatures noticeably cooler. Once the cool front hits the Beaumont area, it will likely stall. So expect showers or storms around tomorrow east of Houston.

On Sunday, there opens up a little bit of uncertainty, as the front should stall out or wash out to our east, leaving us with a slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm. Some of the latest trends seem to keep us mostly dry though. I suspect Sunday will probably be a fine day, but Eric and I will watch things in case something changes. Highs both days will be in the 70s to perhaps near 80 degrees with morning lows in the 60s to near 70 degrees.

Next week

We may get a slight assist from Rafael on Monday with generally offshore winds helping to keep humidity low. The humidity may inch back up on Tuesday. Expect sun and just a few clouds. Highs will be in the 80s with morning lows in the 60s. A shower chance re-enters the forecast Tuesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 60s to perhaps near 70 ahead of the next cold front. That looks to plow through Wednesday around midday, knocking our temperatures back a bit.

We should see a couple days of cooler temperatures in the wake of that front before things warm back up again next weekend. Another front may be in the cards after next weekend. We’ll see. Eric explained yesterday why our fronts have lacked teeth so far this year. No sign of that changing in the foreseeable future.

Tropics

If you want to ask about Rafael and what the heck it’s doing, don’t even bother.

In all seriousness, Rafael is being steered by high pressure over the Southeast, but as it encounters dry air, wind shear, and approaching cold fronts, it will likely do some funky maneuvers over the open water before eventually ending up as a depression or remnant low in the Bay of Campeche next week. Check our companion site, The Eyewall for more.

In brief: After yesterday’s smattering of decent rain in spots, Houston will continue to see at least spotty to scattered showers and storms the next several days. A cool front is expected to disrupt the warm and humid weather early next week, with some uncertainty on just how far through the area it gets. Also, don’t forget to turn back the clocks tomorrow night!

Houston saw a wide range of rainfall yesterday, with a couple of areas clearly cashing in, while others struggled. The big winners were in Richmond, Rosenberg, and just west of Sugar Land, where close to 4 inches fell. Galveston and Brazoria Counties did well also with a general 1 to 3 inches in most spots. Beaumont did well to our east, as did Brookshire to our west. All in all, I’d venture to guess that about 60 percent of you are pleased with what has fallen so far, while the other 40 percent are smarting a little.

The good news is that we are not quite done with the rain yet, but the bad news is that it will be very spotty over the next few days.

Today through Sunday

Look for sun, clouds, and a smattering of showers each day. Exactly where and when these occur is impossible to predict, but the environment is supportive of at least a 30 to 40 percent rain chance each day. No need to alter plans, but have a spot in mind to scoot to if it rains for a brief time. Highs will be generally in the low to mid-80s with lows in the 70s and muggy conditions.

Oh, and don’t forget to set the clocks back an hour tomorrow night. I used to joke that I would have to adjust my temperature forecasts because of “one hour less daylight.” Meteorologist humor.

Anyway, have the umbrella handy but hopefully the rain won’t bother you too much.

Monday and beyond

Next week will be a bit of a tricky forecast. Monday should start off much like the weekend with high humidity, warm, and humid conditions. We’ll continue a chance of a shower or storm. On Monday night, a cold front will approach Houston. It should push through the area, but there are hints in model guidance that the front will probably stall near the coast or just offshore. Assuming that happens, we will turn slightly cooler and less humid on Tuesday and Wednesday. I’d expect highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s.

Nothing too special there, but it’ll feel refreshing at least! That front may actually come through with a little oomph on Tuesday morning, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a line of thunderstorms douse everyone with a half-inch to inch of rain and some thunder.

After Wednesday, the front will probably push back onshore Thursday, ushering back in warm and somewhat humid conditions before the next front. When will that arrive? Maybe next weekend? We’ll see. Model guidance has been a little wonky in the extended range lately in terms of timing and strength of fronts, so I don’t want to overpromise anything.

Tropics

Yes, it’s November 1st, and yes Houston’s hurricane season is (historically) done. We don’t need to worry about the system in the Caribbean with a 70 percent chance of development.

However, it could be a player in the weather across the western Caribbean next week. We can’t get too specific on anyone’s forecast, but if you’ll be traveling to the western Caribbean or Central America next week, keep tabs on things at our companion site, The Eyewall.