Matt Lanza

In brief: A warming trend takes over today in Houston with 60s likely. Rain showers or an isolated thunderstorm and areas of fog arrive tomorrow for some, not all of the area, while a very warm day sets up on Thursday. A cool front will disrupt the warming trend Friday before we surge upward again. Record highs will be at risk next week in Houston.

We’re starting off warmer this morning. In most cases, we’re running about 8 to 12 degrees warmer than Monday morning at the same time.

Tuesday

Warmer will indeed be the theme today. While it should be sunny today, there will be a fair bit of high cirrus around to dim the sun at times. Otherwise, we’ll manage 60s this afternoon and a generally lovely late autumn day.

Wednesday and Thursday

Wednesday looks like our best chance at scattered showers over the next week or so. A lot of folks will see nothing. But in general, expect low clouds, some areas of fog, and scattered showers or even a rogue thunderstorm tomorrow. Highs will shoot up to about 70 degrees.

The potential for fog, especially sea fog returns Wednesday night and Thursday morning as rain chances diminish and a warmer, more humid air mass establishes. Depending on how much sunshine we get, we could push deep into the 70s Thursday. The next cold front will hit Thursday afternoon or evening. It should not carry much, if any moisture with it, but it will lead to a sharp drop in humidity, a wind shift, and cooling temperatures.

Friday

By Friday morning, temperatures will have dropped into the 40s across most of the area.

Friday looks like a delightful day with highs warming into the low to mid-60s.

Weekend and next week

Onshore flow resumes Friday night, and we’re going to warm up big time heading into next week. Highs will push well into the 70s on Saturday and perhaps the 80s on Sunday. And from there, it doesn’t change a whole lot next week. Here’s a chart that shows each day’s record high temperature, as well as a forecast high temperature range from various operational and ensemble model guidance.

Date	Record High	Current forecast high range
Saturday 12/20	81° (1921)	77-80°
Sunday 12/21	82° (2010)	78-82°
Monday 12/22	81° (2017)	72-81°
Tuesday 12/23	81° (2020)	76-81°
Wednesday 12/24	82° (1955)	78-83°
Thursday 12/25	83° (2015)	79-84°
Friday 12/26	84° (2016)	78-83°

The wild card day right now looks like Monday, which could see a brief nudge of cooler air before temps surge again. Our next shot at a meaningful cold front may not be until next weekend or later. But the takeaway is that record highs are very much in play every day between Saturday and next Friday, with perhaps the exception of Monday. Stay tuned.

In brief: For the most part, Houston’s forecast hasn’t changed, and that’s what we’ve checked in on this Sunday to tell you. Lows in the 30s tonight across most of the Houston area, with a light freeze likely, mainly north of I-10 and outside the urban center.

Cloud cover is giving today a pretty gloomy feel, albeit perfect weather to watch the Texans. Those clouds are eroding though, and by evening, most of the area should be mainly clear.

With the clear skies, light winds, and a fresh, cold air mass overhead, we’ll be able to see temperatures drop steadily tonight through the 40s and into the 30s. This isn’t a super cold air mass, so it sort of remains to be seen how much of the area can trip the freezing mark tonight, but if I were a betting man (which after watching NFL RedZone all day, they seem to think I am), I would suspect that about 60 to 70% of places north of I-10 will do so.

Within the confines of Beltway 8, most of us will probably see 33 to 37 degrees. Between Beltway 8 and the Grand Parkway, you’re probably looking at 31 to 34 degrees north of I-10 and 32 to 35 degrees south of I-10. Outside Grand Parkway north of I-10, most places should do 28 to 32 degrees and 30 to 34 degrees south of I-10. As you can see from the map above, the core of the cold air mass shoots east of us into Louisiana with 20s for Beaumont, Lake Charles, and Acadiana. This is the type of cold weather we get at least several times a winter, so minimal issues are expected, but if you’ve got some extra sensitive plants outdoors, it may be a good idea to prep them.

But we will warm

Look, if cold isn’t your thing, we’ll do 50s tomorrow, 60s on Tuesday, 70s on Wednesday, and near 80 on Thursday. It looks like we get one more weak front before the real warming begins. Eric will have more on that in the morning. In the meantime, stay warm, and go Texans!

In brief: A lovely day today in Houston will give way to a warm up tomorrow and fog and shower chances on Saturday. Our next front Sunday morning may knock temps back close to freezing in spots on Monday morning before we begin what could be a prolonged, serious warm up leading into Christmas.

Today

It’s a crisp start to Thursday with temperatures in the 40s and some pockets of 30s in northern fringes of the region. It will be a lovely day today with highs in the 60s to perhaps near 70 in spots south and west of Houston. Lots of sunshine.

Friday and Saturday

Tomorrow looks like our transition back into warmer temperatures. With clouds and sun, we should manage to warm from the 40s and 50s in the morning to the 60s and 70s in the afternoon. Some areas near Downtown or just southeast of there will push the mid to upper-70s.

Friday night will be milder with lows the 50s to low-60s mostly. Saturday does feature a return of shower chances, though if you have outdoor plans I’m not quite sure it’s anything you need to plan around just yet. The day will start gloomy with areas of perhaps dense fog and some drizzle. Gradually, skies should brighten, and with that will come the shower or isolated thunderstorm chance.

Sunday

On Saturday night, a cold front will push through with another chance at showers or a thunderstorm. The front is currently timed to hit around sunrise on Sunday. Temperatures may actually drop through the morning on Sunday back into the 50s across the area for most of the afternoon. Our high temperature on Sunday may be around or just after Midnight. It will turn blustery too with 10 to 20 mph winds across the area, higher on the coast.

Could parts of the area freeze Monday morning?

As Eric noted yesterday, temperatures falling into the 30s was possible on Sunday night. Recent model trends have gotten more aggressive with bringing colder air into the area. To be clear, this won’t be a hard or particularly dangerous freeze. However, inland, rural, sheltered locations could nudge back close to 30 degrees. In Houston proper, I doubt we get much below 34 degrees right now, but it will be quite chilly on Monday morning.

Stay tuned!

Next week

Monday itself will be cold with highs only in the 50s. Tuesday should warm into the 60s with milder morning lows (40s mostly). By Wednesday we are in the 70s. Beyond Wednesday, the question will become how warm it gets. As Eric alluded to on Wednesday, the run up to Christmas looks quite warm. In fact, over 50 percent of model ensemble members are calling for a high temperature above 80 degrees by next weekend. It appears that it will not feel like Christmas this year in the days leading up to the holiday. More to come.

In brief: Those gray skies are running out of time, Houston. We expect showers or light rain at times today with brightening skies on Saturday. The sun should return in all its glory on Sunday, with warmer temps, followed by a brief cooldown early next week. We return to 70 or so by mid to late next week.

Sorry for the delayed post this morning; I had a donuts morning with one of my kids, and while I love our audience, I also love donuts. Because, warm Shipley donuts. So, apologies, but surely you’ll understand.

It’s been a bit of dreary week, starting off on a cold, damp note, followed by a chilly Tuesday, a graying Wednesday, a damp Thursday, and now a cold, damp Friday. Thankfully, if you need a dose of sun in your life, you’ll be getting one soon.

Today

Dreary is the operative word. Though, I will say I saw blue sky poking through the overcast earlier. I’m not optimistic today though. Look for occasional light rain, drizzle, or passing showers in most of the area. Coastal areas today may see a steadier rain at times. Temps don’t budge a whole lot. We’re starting in the 40s and perhaps we’ll push 50 degrees in spots, especially south of Houston this afternoon. Generally, rain totals will be a tenth of an inch or less in most spots.

Saturday

Showers may linger through the overnight hours and into early Saturday morning. Most of the rain will end. We should see some brightening skies Saturday afternoon as well. If we get sunshine, we may push into the mid-60s. If we stay cloudy, we’ll maybe sneak above 60 degrees or so.

Sunday

We finally unstick this pattern Sunday. I would expect decreasing clouds, increasing sunshine, highs a bit warmer, in the upper-60s to low-70s (after morning lows in the 40s and 50s), and just an overall nicer day. Winds could become a bit gusty at times later Sunday or Sunday evening as a reinforcing dry cold front pushes in.

Monday & Tuesday

Back to cooler weather but with sunshine!

Morning lows will be in the 40s on Monday and 30s and 40s on Tuesday, followed by highs in the 50s to near 60 Monday and perhaps a bit warmer Tuesday.

Later next week

A warmer pattern establishes after Tuesday, with highs probably in the 70s on Wednesday and staying around 70 or so through next weekend.

Morning lows should creep back into the 50s and eventually the 60s. I would not be shocked to see some sea fog emerge at some point by next weekend. At this point, rain chances are mostly absent after this weekend, with the next hint in models holding off until at least next Sunday or Monday. Milder weather is probably going to linger a bit longer with the brunt of any cold directed into the Eastern U.S. over the next 10 days or so. We’ll see if that can change late in the week of the 15th.