Matt Lanza

In brief: Drought continues to expand across the Houston area with continued sunshine. More of that to come, but we are watching some potential for rain by late next week or around Halloweekend. Don’t alter your plans yet though, as we have a lot of questions still in front of us.

We’ve done well this week with lows generally in the 50s and some lower 60s. But we are about to change things just a bit. More 60s for lows and fewer 50s. But not much hotter during the daytime. Rain, I hardly know you.

The on again/off again relationship with drought that we’ve had for the last 4 to 5 years continues to escalate back into “going steady” mode. Drought now covers over 80 percent of the Houston region, with over 25 percent classified as severe or extreme. Do we expect rain over the next week or so?

Not really, but as Eric noted yesterday, it does appear that some kind of system is poised to impact the area around next weekend, so perhaps we will be able to ease up a little bit on the drought if that comes through. In the meantime, it’s just more of the same, really.

Today through Sunday

If it’s not wall to wall sunshine this weekend, it’ll be close. We probably stand to see some higher clouds on Sunday, but today and tomorrow look like sunscreen and ozone days. Ground ozone will be high, so air quality will be poor. Highs should be in the mid-80s today and tomorrow and lower 80s on Sunday with the clouds. Overnight lows in the 60s will be held up a bit as humidity slowly returns. Winds will be gusty at times, especially Saturday.

Early next week

Cloud cover should persist to some extent early next week with just a stray shower chance, mainly south or west of Houston. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s and lows should continue in the 60s.

Later next week

Obviously with Halloween next Saturday, everyone is focused on that forecast. It does still appear that some kind of system will impact us Friday or Saturday. If I had to place bets, I would probably put most of my chips on Saturday right now. That does not mean Halloween will be a washout; things could easily push through 12 hours before evening fun or even after midnight. Or the forecast could change completely We’re not good enough at this to tell you specifically 8 days in advance. However, the timeline of a system with potential for rain and thunderstorms either Friday or Saturday is the going forecast right now.

One thing to watch will be to see if the remnant moisture of what should become major Hurricane Vance this weekend can get funneled into the U.S. and hook up with this system late next week. So, yes, that could be able to produce locally decent rainfall. But could that go into interior Texas? Not make it here at all? More questions than answers right now, but let’s hope for some rain — just not around Trick or Treat time!

In brief: Autumn arrives in the Houston area today, with plummeting humidity and comfortable, if not cool temperatures this weekend! While next week offers a warming trend, humidity levels and morning lows stay under control, allowing for continued mostly pleasant, warmer weather.

Fall’s first real front

Welcome to autumn, my friends! As of this writing, our much discussed cold front has entered Grimes, northern Waller, and northwest Montgomery Counties. We will now get multiple days of comfortable, pleasant autumn weather, so get outside and enjoy it. Hopefully you can dial back the AC a little too. With that in mind, our partners at Reliant have some energy saving tips at the end of this post to help take full advantage of the nice weather.

Indeed, temperatures have fallen in the Brazos Valley with 60s now in College Station as of 5:30 AM. Temperatures are as much as 20 degrees cooler than they were 24 hours ago just west of I-35 in Central Texas. It’s coming.

Today & tonight

Before the front hits, look for a few scattered showers or a thunderstorm. The wind will crank up as well. Calm winds this morning will shift out of the north and will gust at 30 to 35 mph behind the front, stronger perhaps on Galveston Island, by Galveston Bay, or in the Brazos Valley.

Temperatures in the low-70s this morning may drop back into the upper 60s in spots today. But generally, they’ll hang near 70 degrees. Dewpoints will fall into the 40s this evening making it feel exquisite, albeit windy. Look for overnight lows to drop down into the 50s everywhere, even Galveston with some pockets of 40s possible in the usual colder spots.

In terms of clouds vs sun, we should see more clouds than sun this morning and more sun than clouds this afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday

Perfect. That’s about all we need to say. Winds will remain a little gusty on Saturday, though not as strong as today, and they’ll back off even more on Sunday. Highs around 70 on Saturday, lows around 45 to 50 away from the water on Sunday morning, and highs in the low to mid-70s Sunday afternoon.

Next week

For those of you that enjoy Houston for warmer weather than this weekend provides, next week should be a return to warmer conditions. Look for a slow increase in both temperature and humidity, though probably not returning anywhere close to the levels we have been dealing with. I expect to see highs near 80 on Monday, the low to mid 80s on Tuesday, and the mid-80s on Wednesday. Morning lows will also slowly nudge up to the mid-50s Monday, near 60 Tuesday, and the low-60s Wednesday. Some overnight guidance tries to keep lows in the 50s through Wednesday. Usually we end up warming back up a little faster than expected in these scenarios so I’ll keep us warm for now and Eric can tell you I was wrong on Monday.

That said, despite the warming trend, we are probably now at the point on the calendar where even on hotter days, the evenings and mornings aren’t half bad. The week looks rain-free at this time as well.

A message from Reliant

Fall weather is finally arriving this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and a break from the long Texas summer. The milder weather often provides relief for many of us as we’re relying less on air conditioning. Here are a few ways to maximize savings during the cool front:

• Follow the “4-by-4” principle. Set your thermostat four degrees higher when you’re away from home for more than four hours to reduce electricity usage and costs.
• Try to use natural ventilation and open windows when the weather is nice rather than running the AC or heater.
• Change air filters regularly. Dirty air filters make your AC work harder than it should and reduces air flow. Take note of when to change your air filter along with the size so you have them in stock or are ready to purchase when the time comes.
• You may not think of leveraging your ceiling fan when thinking about staying warm, but it can be a useful tool. Set your ceiling fan to rotate clockwise to help force warm air down from the ceiling into the room and create a more comfortable environment. Turn off ceiling fans when you leave a room to cut back on unnecessary energy usage.

Milder temperatures can naturally reduce energy usage, but it’s also a great time for maintenance to improve your home’s efficiency and prepare heating systems for the colder months ahead.

• Inspect insulation. The best way to do this is to hire a professional to check it throughout your house.
• Seal air leaks. Common places for leaks include windows, doors, attics and basements. Add weatherstripping around doors and caulking around windows to seal leaks, which helps keep indoor air in and outdoor air out. By sealing air leaks around your home, you can improve comfort and potentially save up to 10% on total energy costs.
• Tune up your HVAC before winter and summer to make sure you’re comfortable even on the coldest and hottest days of the year.

Customers can visit reliant.com/falltips for more information on ways to stay comfortable without spending more. 

In brief: Today marks Houston’s first morning of autumn with a low temperature of 65 degrees, so we declare it to be Fall Day 2026! Enjoy the comfortable morning. Hot weather is going to continue however, with highs in the 90s for several days and returning humidity next week. There may be something cooler on the horizon though. We explain.

Happy Fall Day!

Eric willed it yesterday. It is officially Fall Day in Houston! Our morning low is at least 65 degrees. We’ll see if the official low comes in at 65 or 64. Either way, we did it! The last time it was this cool in Houston was May 12th!

The morning should be lovely, so we hope you can enjoy it. And both this evening and tomorrow morning should be lovely as well!

Today and the weekend

We can partially thank Hurricane Isaias for the drier air we’re experiencing now. The dewpoint hit 57° at Bush Airport yesterday afternoon for only the second time since May. There is some chance we drop under than level this afternoon too. But the flow coming out of the northeast this time of year will do that, and a hurricane to our east only tends to enhance things a bit. Bottom line: It’s modestly comfortable for a change, albeit hot.

How hot? Look for highs in the low 90s today through Sunday. We could even see a few mid-90s on Sunday afternoon, along with slightly higher humidity. Otherwise, it looks sunny during the day and tolerable at night with lows in the 60s to near 70 by Sunday morning.

Early next week

The forecast for next week has been one that just makes you want to scream into a void this time of year. Forecast temperatures are generally up about 5 to 7 degrees from just a few days ago, as we delay the next push of cooler air to maybe next weekend. This means the front half of next week looks warm and humid. Highs will be around 90 or in the low 90s, along with a chance of some showers Monday or Tuesday.

Later next week

The remnants of Pacific Hurricane Simon will move into parts of West Texas and the Plains on Tuesday and get absorbed into what was supposed to be our first true fall cold front next week. Instead, this will keep Houston on the warmer side of the front into late week. This keeps us warm to hot and humid with continued highs near 90 or in the low 90s, lows in the 70s, and high humidity.

It gets much more interesting later in the week. The front will initially stall out to our north and west pushing a surge of moisture again across interior Texas, while keeping us on the weaker side of things with just some showers. Modeling is actually in somewhat decent agreement on that front getting blasted to the southeast sometime on Saturday, which would usher in our first chance at highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, with crisp autumn air. We’re going to be skeptical about this until we’re 2 or 3 days out, but this is definitely the most interesting signal we’ve had all autumn. Time will tell.

In brief: A warmer and sunnier stretch of weather should await the Houston area this week, albeit with lower humidity levels. The tropics are not a concern for us at this time, with any Gulf tropical system likely staying well to our south and east. We turn hotter and more humid this weekend and early next week.

I don’t know if Sunday was the unofficial first fall day in Houston, but the weather behaved that way to an extent. Overcast skies, some light rain and drizzle, and the hangover of a disappointing sports week seemed to make it so. Our high temperature yesterday was 81°, the coolest daytime high since July 14th, when we only hit 79°. This type of weather won’t last, however, as we move into something of a more typical warm autumn setup for the rest of this week.

Today

We have some lingering clouds this morning. And those clouds may be a bit stubborn, especially south and east of Houston. There will continue to be a shower chance to the southeast too with the cool front sitting just offshore. But overall we’ll call today partly cloudy to perhaps eventually mostly sunny, with highs likely bouncing back into the mid-80s.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

As of now we expect all three days to be generally partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs will probably be in the upper 80s. Morning lows may not be too bad on Tuesday, with a chance that some places outside of Beltway 8 drop into the 60s.

Daytimes will be hot with those upper-80s, but the humidity levels will be less oppressive and more typical for October. There could be some showers, especially by Wednesday or Thursday, and especially south and east of Houston each afternoon.

Tropics & late week through the weekend

I wrote about the tropical disturbance in the southwest Gulf and Bay of Campeche yesterday at The Eyewall. I’ll have another update on that later today or tonight.

But the short takeaway is that we should not need to worry much about this system here in Texas. With a front draped offshore, and general southwest to northeast flow pattern, whatever happens there, be it a slopfest of moisture or a stronger tropical storm or hurricane will likely be carried to our east.

This is also well reflected in the model forecast of precipitation anomalies, which you can see over the next 7 to 10 days will likely end up well above normal south and east of our area.

So for Houston, this means that we will probably continue with these seasonably warm temperatures that may gradually trend to more unseasonably warm as we go toward the weekend and next week. We’ll probably see the humidity return late this week as well. This time, however, it does look at a front or fronts will break things up sometime next week. We’re beginning to see the pace of fronts slowly increase, which should mean that any higher humidity periods should be shorter-lived than they have been since September.