Matt Lanza

In brief: Heat and humidity will be a bit worse than usual for August this weekend, and although things ease up just a bit next week, we will remain hot and mostly dry. There may be a shift toward better rain chances next weekend.

Today through next week

Sunny, hot, humid. Highs in the mid-90s to near 100 degrees. Maybe a rain chance. And you know what? I congratulate my neighbors that have seen showers this week and may luckily see showers into the weekend too. Good for you, I say!

Why is this happening?

In all seriousness, we all know the forecast at this point, so I figured I’d take a moment to discuss the “why” today. It’s kind of fascinating. Last summer we saw a suppressed, strong ridge of high pressure over Mexico that would continuously flex over Texas. This kept us in the 100s daily and made last summer another level of terrible. This summer? Much different. Texas has been stuck generally between persistent areas of high pressure, one in the East, one in the West. To date, it’s been the hottest summer on record by a mile for Las Vegas and Phoenix. For Atlanta it’s the fourth hottest to date, and for Raleigh, NC it’s the third hottest. For Houston, it’s “only” been the 12th hottest summer and, even less impressive the 24th hottest for our frienemies in Dallas.

But so far this month, the pattern has changed allowing for the Western ridge to expand into Texas somewhat, which has in turn allowed us to crank the heat. Over the next five days, check out where the ridge of high pressure situates.

Over the next week it basically sets up shop just to our west, which will keep us firmly under the influence of heat. Unlike last summer, we aren’t directly underneath the high, so we will have some modest rain chances and it won’t be as extreme as was seen last year. But our weather will continue to be controlled by this feature. Odds of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation will remain strong heading deep into next week. The next few days should be the worst of it for now. We may see a relaxation in this pattern later next week with the ridge retreating a little more to the west leading to slightly better rain chances toward next weekend.

Whatever the case, this coupled with a quiet tropical Atlantic over the next several days (outside of Ernesto) is not necessarily a bad thing for Houston. We’ll take it, but do take it easy with this weekend’s heat.

In brief: August will continue to August in Houston, with hot weather, hazy skies, high humidity, and at least some low-end shower chances. We will continue to see the heat persist into next week, but that will also hopefully shield us from any tropical troubles.

Today

More of the same continues today, but this time we may add a slightly better chance of a few showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. The setup is a bit complicated, but we have a couple boundaries headed our way, and this coupled with daytime heating and the inland moving sea breeze off the Gulf could help at least fire up a few thunderstorms around the area. Otherwise, it’ll be another scorcher with highs near 100, heat advisories, and air quality alerts for high ozone.

Weekend

More of the same. There will continue to at least be subtle rain chances this weekend, but consider yourself lucky if you get a downpour. Highs will be in the upper-90s, with more borderline heat advisory criteria. I guess that’s a little cooler? I don’t know. Cooler or not, it’s still going to be hot.

Next week

We’ll keep this simple today: There may be some subtle nuance day to day in terms of exact temperature or exact shower chances, but the majority of next week looks stable and hot. High pressure is in control (more below), and that means sun, highs near 100, and heat index values pushing heat advisory criteria daily.

While we cannot entirely rule rain out of the forecast next week, daily chances really look meager right now. This is as reminiscent of last summer as we’ve seen so far this year.

The reason for all this is that high pressure in the upper atmosphere, something that’s been relatively absent this summer over Texas is finally locking into place. We usually see this at times during summer leading to more concentrated “heat wave” type periods. Well, it’s coinciding with August and our worst heat this year it seems. As long as this stays in place, which it looks to do for the most part over the next 10-12 days at least, we will continue with a pretty stable forecast. If you look at the map below, just notice the “594” circle over Texas. That’s a pretty strong sign of good heat and mainly dry weather in Texas in August.

The upshot of all this is that it would likely keep us protected from any tropical nonsense, so long as it stays in place. We’ll see if that’s the case. Check The Eyewall later this morning for the latest on the next Atlantic wave, which we currently believe will stay east of the Gulf.

In brief: Rain has been manageable so far today. We expect more rain this evening, with scattered heavy downpours. Another round of potentially heavier rain is possible on Thursday morning. We’ll maintain our flood alerts as is for now.

Rain has been mostly under control since this morning thankfully. The next wave is coming ashore now at the coast, and even this one is checking in a bit more manageable than it looked this morning.

Still, rain rates around 1 inch an hour or so are likely as this pushes ashore. As it moves north and east, we’ll see most rain impacts on the southeast side of Houston, with isolated to scattered downpours north and west. Total rainfall will be an additional inch or two at the coast and less inland (except in isolated heavier downpours) through this evening. Any street flooding is expected to be more nuisance in nature.

Looking ahead, modeling is suggesting another rather beefy area of rain and storms approaches the area overnight or early on Thursday morning. This would be capable of perhaps another 1 to 4 inches of rain.

There remains enough uncertainty in the models that we use for these type of rain events that I think maintaining the Stage 2 alert for the coastal areas and Stage 1 inland is the right move. One model we track closely during these events suggests as much as 7 to 10 inches could fall in a worst case scenario between Galveston and Port Arthur and southwest Louisiana. I would especially watch the Beaumont-Port Arthur area in this setup. We don’t expect that outcome, but we can’t rule it out entirely. For the majority of metro Houston and suburbs, another inch or two, with some seeing more and some less seems reasonable.

Eric will update us on Thursday morning with the latest regarding the rainfall.

In brief: A smattering of showers and thunderstorms will be with us today and tomorrow. More scattered storms are in play for Sunday. And then widespread rain and thunderstorms will be the forecast for much of next week, with locally heavy rain, some flooding, gusty winds at times, but also cooler temperatures.

A quick housekeeping note: The latest version of the Space City Weather app is available for Android and iOS now. Dwight will have a post out later this morning explaining the changes that went into this version and how you can report any bugs (not just the mosquitoes landing on your phone inside your house). As a side note, since beginning this journey with Eric almost 10 years ago now, it’s pretty cool to see how far this has come. No app is perfect, but I am proud of ours, and I hope you find it to be useful.

Today

We have two clusters of storms this morning in the area. The first is to the west of Sugar Land, dropping across Wharton County. A second area of storms extends from Kingwood east toward Beaumont. Those should continue to drop southward and gradually weaken. Look for a few more showers and storms to form this afternoon.

After failing to hit 90 yesterday thanks to cloud cover and rain-cooled air behind yesterday morning’s system, highs will top off in the low-90s today. It actually felt kind of nice yesterday!

Weekend

Saturday actually looks like a fairly decent day overall. Yes, there will be a chance of showers or a thunderstorm. But on the whole, rain chances will be at a relative low compared to what’s ahead Sunday and beyond. So look for a smattering of afternoon showers and highs in the low-90s.

Sunday looks a little busier. We’ll have a little more moisture and enough support for more in the way of scattered thunderstorms. Lows will be in the 70s, with highs around 90 or a little hotter depending on rainfall.

Monday through Thursday

If you have plans next week that involve anything outdoors, make sure you also have an alternative lined up. It looks like a chaotic, busy week in the atmosphere over Texas. We will have numerous vigorous disturbances pushing across Texas with a large trough in the upper atmosphere. This means numerous daily rain chances, locally heavy rain, a few strong storms, and cooler temperatures than normal.

It remains very difficult to predict exactly when the heaviest rain will be. Right now I’d hone in on later Monday or Tuesday and again later Wednesday or Thursday for the best odds, but that may shift around a bit. What we do know is that the amount of moisture available in the atmosphere will be 100 to 150 percent of normal, which typically translates to at least a couple rounds of heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center currently has forecasts for excessive rain out through Tuesday and has the region at least in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) each day. I would say to expect an additional 3 to 6 inches *on average* across the region. Some places may see a bit less than that, but it’s conceivable that a couple places will see more with enough storm activity through next Thursday. We will likely have to dust off the flood scale again Sunday or Monday and keep it up through Thursday or Friday. This would be primarily for street flooding concerns. Check back with us for more perhaps on Sunday.

While thunderstorms are likely, severe weather is merely possible, not likely. Any severe storms should be isolated and brief. There will be gusty winds at times with any storms, and severe or not, that may be both unsettling to you and the power system. So periodic temporary power outages can’t be ruled out through next week. I get the anxiety, trust me.

As noted, cooler weather will arrive next week thanks to the clouds and rain.

For example, on Wednesday, like some people’s taste in music, we will struggle to get past the mid-80s. These suppressed daytime highs will continue into late week before we slowly rebound next weekend. Nighttime lows will not necessarily play along, as they should remain in the 70s.