Matt Lanza

Houston’s weather roller coaster takes us for a ride

A dreary start to the week will continue today with a number of things to watch for in the region. Let’s get to it.

Today & tonight

Two issues this morning: Fog and rain. Starting with visibility, we’ve got Dense Fog Advisories up for the entire region. Visibility is restricted just about everywhere in Southeast Texas, so give yourself a few extra minutes this morning. Fog will be most persistent near the coast, so if you’re traveling south on I-45 or east on I-10 this morning, you should expect a much slower than usual go of things.

The I-45 Causeway into or out of Galveston is a very foggy drive this morning. (Houston TranStar)

In addition to the fog, we’re also watching rain. Most of the heavier and steadier rain is well north of Houston this morning. If you live in The Woodlands or Conroe or north and west of Houston toward Sealy or Hempstead, you’re seeing occasional rains this morning. Those will probably lift off to the north through the morning.

Radar as of 6:35 this morning shows the steadiest rains well north and west of Houston. Those will shift further north through the day. (GRLevel3)

The rest of today will feature steady to perhaps heavy rainfall almost totally out of the Houston area. This would be most likely north of a Brenham-Huntsville-Lufkin line. In and around Houston itself, we could see a sporadic shower or a thunderstorm. After the fog slowly dissipates this morning (and in places, it may linger into early afternoon), it should be mostly dry. Expect temperatures to reach the mid-70s this afternoon.

Tonight is when we’ll need to pay attention for some quick moving thunderstorms. A cold front should sweep through between roughly 9 PM and 2 AM. It will bring a broken, thin line of storms, which means it’s possible that not everyone sees rain or thunder. That said, parameters over Southeast Texas will be favorable for some of the storms embedded in that line to be strong to severe. A few places may see some gusty winds, and while we can’t entirely rule out a stray storm capable of producing a tornado, that would be most likely well northeast of Houston into the Piney Woods I think.

Behind the front, westerly winds take control, and much drier and slightly cooler air will arrive overnight.

Wednesday

This is the pick of the week. Perhaps it’s the pick of the next few weeks, actually. I mean, it looks stunning. Wednesday should be partly to mostly sunny, not too humid, and quite warm. Expect temperatures to max out in the middle or upper-70s. This is less of a Christmas spirit type day and more of a “this is why we live in Houston” type day. Hope you’re able to enjoy it a bit.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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Post-Harvey week in review: December 18, 2017

It’s another Monday, so it’s time for another week in review of articles about Harvey-related issues in Texas. If you missed previous recaps, they are here:

Post-Harvey week in review: December 11, 2017
Post-Harvey week in review: December 4, 2017
Post-Harvey week in review: November 27, 2017
Post-Harvey week in review: November 20, 2017

Just as a note: With Christmas and New Years upcoming on Mondays, we’ll table this feature until next year. Look for this to resume in early 2018.

Reads of the week

The Houston Chronicle’s “Developing Storm” series. Parts one and two are linked in last week’s post. The next three parts are linked below. There should be two more coming soon. These are very much worth your time to read, as they’re educational, informative, and, at times, maddening.

Part 3: What’s in Houston’s worst flood zones? Development worth $13.5 billion (Houston Chronicle): Since 2008, 1,400 structures worth $4.2 billion have been built on floodway parcels in Harris County. Part 3 of the Chronicle’s seven part series examines the differences between floodways and floodplains and how Houston’s regulations have evolved (or haven’t) despite our experience with frequent floods over the years.

Part 4: Harvey overwhelmed some levee systems. Future storms could do worse (Houston Chronicle): Levee systems protecting subdivisions in Fort Bend County probably performed as they were supposed to, but that didn’t prevent over 100 homes from being flooded during Harvey. And by no means do levees guarantee future protection from flooding.

Part 5: Officials patched and prayed while pressure built on Houston’s dams (Houston Chronicle): Addicks and Barker Dams have done enormous service to Houston. Learn about their history and learn how much trouble Houston would be in if they were to fail.

Flooding fact sheets

Continuing on the idea of educating and informing Houston residents: The Greater Houston Flood Mitigation Consortium has published fact sheets to help people in the Houston area better understand terms, technicalities, and flooding risks. Four of them are linked below.

Flood warning systems 
What is a floodplain? 
How to assess flood damage 
What are detention basins?

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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More frequent rain chances for Houston

After an autumn that has seen Texas slip into drought and cooler weather than we’ve had the last couple years, we’re now adding a more active pattern with a few more rain chances to boot. A lot to cover, so let’s dive in.

Today

Today is a day where we need two or three forecasts for the area. You can see that on this satellite image from this morning.

GOES-16 satellite imagery is back online and officially operational. The back edge of clouds will try and push southeast today but it may not make it to Houston. (Univ of Wisconsin SSEC)

At the coast: Expect clouds and a chance of showers or periods of light rain. The steadier rain will stay offshore, but if you live within 20 miles of the Gulf, you will probably see some raindrops at times today, especially in the morning. Inland from there, including most of the Houston metro area, we’ll just be cloudy. Some light rain or drizzle is possible southeast of town in the morning, and some sunshine is possible in Houston and northwest during the afternoon. Further northwest of Houston, expect a mix of sun and clouds to develop. Temperatures will range from the mid-50s south and east to the mid or upper-50s with clouds and sun north and west.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday will see a change, as a brief surge of onshore flow leads to increasing rain chances as the day goes on. If you have outdoor plans, the morning might be your safest bet. Expect scattered showers or thunderstorms to break out from west to east Saturday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches. Rain may be briefly heavy at times, along with some strong or even severe thunderstorms (mainly south and east of Houston) overnight Saturday. Right now, any severe weather looks pretty isolated and mainly east of the area. If this changes, Eric or myself will update you tomorrow.

Rain should quickly end from west to east across the area probably between about 12 and 3 AM Sunday.  The exception to this may be along the coast, where a few showers will linger through Sunday morning. Total rainfall for this event will probably be a half inch to an inch on average, with a few spots perhaps picking up one to two inches of rain.

NWS forecast of total rainfall through Sunday evening shows around an inch in most of the area. A few places will see more, others less. (NWS/Weather Bell)

 

Temperatures will top off in the upper 50s Saturday afternoon, then drop off behind the front Saturday night into the lower-50s. Sunday should see improving conditions with a bit of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper-60s.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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Post-Harvey week in review: December 11, 2017

Welcome back to our weekly Monday wrap-up of Harvey and flooding-related news you may have missed over the last seven days. Let us know if we missed anything in the comments. Previous recaps are here:

Post-Harvey week in review: December 4, 2017
Post-Harvey week in review: November 27, 2017
Post-Harvey week in review: November 20, 2017

Reads of the Week

Sunk Costs – Back-to-back record flooding along the Brazos River has forced people in Richmond to make an excruciating choice: Stay or go? (Texas Observer): The Brazos River at Richmond has seen four of its 10 highest crests on record since May of 2015. Some residents have flooded multiple times, and they now grapple with the question of where to go from here.

Developing Storm Part 1: Nature ruled, man reacted. Hurricane Harvey was Houston’s reckoning (Houston Chronicle): A multi-part series from the Chronicle began last week, and it aims to discuss the storm in the context of it not being exclusively a *natural* disaster. It’s worth reading. The first part discusses the reactions and decisions that had to be made in the heat of battle.

Developing Storm Part 2: Build, flood, rebuild: flood insurance’s expensive cycle (Houston Chronicle): Part two of the Chronicle series talks about the history of the National Flood Insurance Program. It discusses in depth how Congress has failed to act to make NFIP more fiscally viable.

Surveys & Symposiums

Survey: Harvey’s wrath affected 66 percent of Texans in its path (Corpus Christi Caller-Times): Two-thirds of people surveyed in counties affected by Harvey report that they have some sort of damage from the storm. They also report that help hasn’t quite been adequate to this point.

Report: An uneven recovery after Harvey threatens to leave people behind (Rice Kinder Institute): Almost half of people from Harris County that responded to an Episcopal Health Foundation and Kaiser Family Foundation survey lost income from Harvey. Seventeen percent of people from 24 counties surveyed are now suffering a new or worsening health condition. Harvey’s damage has stretched people and resources thin and has led to cascading impacts that will continue to be felt in the region and threatens to leave vulnerable and lower-income populations behind.

Where do we go from here? Houston-area leaders grapple with Harvey aftermath (Houston Chronicle): The Houston Chronicle held a symposium last week to discuss Houston after Harvey. Here are some highlights from that event.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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