Matt Lanza

Monday, 2:15pm CT— Good afternoon. After our break last night, rains have returned to the picture this morning and afternoon. Any rain adds insult to injury right now, but at least the rainfall rates have been, for the most part, under 1.50 inches per hour. This is small comfort obviously, but versus the rates we saw on Saturday night and Sunday, the word “manageable” keeps coming up. As manageable as something can be in this situation.

Now

As of 2 PM, radar is active, with steady moderate to locally heavy rainfall across the southern half of the Houston metro area.

North of I-10 is seeing steady light to moderate rain persist as well. Rainfall rates as of 2 PM are about 0.25″ to 0.50″ per hour north of I-10 and 0.50″ to 1.50″ south of I-10. Again, insulting, infuriating, frustrating, but mostly manageable. It just really slows down drainage. Steady northeast winds inland and southeast winds at the coast are not helping matters either. There have been gusts to 40 or 45 mph, and that looks to continue, although significant increases beyond this are unlikely.

Rest of Today

What you see is what you get. Expect this rain to stay in place much of the afternoon. Rain may fall heavily at times, especially south of I-10. Winds will stay occasionally gusty. Wish we had better news on this front, but it’s going to be a pretty miserable Monday, and hopefully the rates stay at this manageable level. We feel they ought to.

Tonight and Tuesday

I don’t expect a lot of change tonight. Rain will likely fall steadily through the night, and into Tuesday morning. Harvey’s general east or southeast movement will pretty much lock things in. As Harvey begins to shift northward on Tuesday, we will start to see the rain become a little more sporadic I think. Steady moderate rain much of the time Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Harvey should make another landfall Wednesday near High Island, TX as a weak to moderate tropical storm (no significant strengthening is likely).

This remains first and foremost a rain issue, and you should continue to monitor the water. Steady rain should end Wednesday and daily storm chances trend to close to zero by Thursday. We should see sunshine and much better weather to end the week, and we can begin our road to recovery. Stay safe all.

Posted at 2:15 PM CT Monday by Matt

Good morning. Since about midnight, while it has continued to rain, totals have been held down a bit. Most of Harris County has seen less than an inch in that time, while a few spots west of Harris County and to the northeast, especially into Chambers and Liberty Counties have seen 1-3″ of rain. No rain helps, but these sorts of rains don’t hurt quite as badly.

Now

Radar this morning is opening up on a mostly positive note for us. Yes, again, more rain in the area, but a better view than 24 hours ago, and much better than some forecast models had indicated even 8-12 hours ago.

Scattered showers persist west of Houston and in other parts of the area.

Monday

Harvey has re-emerged in the Gulf near Matagorda. We, along with the National Hurricane Center, continue to believe that while Harvey will travel over the Gulf the next couple days, only modest re-organization is expected. Eric covered this in detail last night, and I see no reason things have changed much overnight. We don’t want you worrying about that, and everyone’s focus should continue to be on the rainfall forecast and ongoing flooding.

So what about rain today. Radar isn’t too alarming this morning, but we do expect rains to fill back in a bit as the day progresses. This is certainly not what folks want to hear, but I do believe that in most cases, the rainfall *rates* will be manageable enough to limit substantial new problems from occurring. What this will likely do is lead to some rises again on area bayous that have crested and are dropping now. Those that haven’t crested will continue to rise, albeit hopefully at a slower pace, despite new rains.

Tonight & Tuesday

As we go into tonight and tomorrow, expect continued periods of rain. Most of the time, rates should continue to be manageable so that things don’t worsen, but I can’t entirely rule out some heavier rainfall at times until Harvey comes ashore in Louisiana again on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

We figured this would be at least a four or five-day event for Houston, with the worst rains front-loaded in the first two or three days. Today begins day three, so we’re past the halfway point, and hopefully past most of the worst of the rains. That’s not to say we don’t have additional problems ahead, but our hope is that we can manage what is to come. We’ll have more for you a bit later this morning.

Posted at 6:20 AM Monday by Matt

Good afternoon. Rain rates today have been more manageable in the area. We’ve even had reports of sunshine in spots. Over the next few hours, the weather is going to likely deteriorate once more. Current problems will continue and new ones will crop up, but we feel that we will probably see less rain overall tonight than we did last night in the Houston area. That being said, tonight’s rains come with a bit more uncertainty than last night’s. Let’s explain.

Now

Harvey is centered about 25 miles from Victoria. This is further east than Harvey was at this time yesterday. The setup has changed a bit, with a weak boundary along I-10 and flow that’s directed more southeast to northwest from the Gulf.

What does this mean? It means that varying intensities of rainfall are likely tonight south of I-10. Again, this isn’t optimal, but my hope is that the rains will remain manageable south and southeast of Houston. Folks in those areas will need to stay alert and keep the guard up overnight, but rain totals (and the hope is VERY importantly, the rain rates) should be less than last night.

North of I-10,it’s similar, but with more rain and fewer breaks. Expect occasional 1-3″ per hour rain rates in those areas. This will exacerbate already near-record levels of flooding on Cypress Creek and other bodies of water north of Houston.

On average, I would expect 3-7″ south and 4-8″ north, but there is most certainly a risk of higher amounts in spots. The heavy rains near Port Arthur and Beaumont should add up to 5-10″ or more.

Tomorrow & Tuesday

Looking ahead, no new news to report. After tonight, rainfall will continue sporadically and heavily at times through tomorrow, similar to what we saw today, perhaps with a few less breaks though unfortunately. Harvey will emerge back out over the Gulf near Matagorda, and a Tropical Storm Watch was reissued from Sargent to San Luis Pass with the National Hurricane Center’s 4 PM advisory. Eric will have a post shortly on that aspect of the storm, but please, use your bandwidth to deal with the rain and flooding around Houston right now. That’s the issue we have to focus on.

We’ll have another post on the forecast this evening. Stay safe.

Posted at 4:25 PM Sunday by Matt