Matt Lanza

In brief: Other than some periods of poor air quality, the forecast for Houston is about as perfect for springtime as it gets with sunshine and low humidity through the weekend.

Today through Sunday

This is really going to extend an incredible stretch of sunny weather here in Houston. Very few clouds are expected over the next 5 days, with sunshine each day. You will see and hear about air quality advisories. The plentiful sunshine tends to interact with pollutants from cars and petrochemical facilities to produce ground ozone. You can read more about this here, but suffice to say, there will be periods of unhealthy air quality in the morning or evening, especially today, tomorrow, and Friday.

Temperatures will flop around a bit. We’ll do low 80s today, mid-80s tomorrow and Friday, low to mid-80s on Saturday, and then mid to upper-80s on Sunday. Morning lows will be in the 50s or 60s. Overall, this will also be a fairly pleasant, dry air mass. Humidity will increase some this weekend but not to levels that would be deemed uncomfortable.

Next week

Even next week the pattern doesn’t change a whole heck of a lot for Southeast Texas. We should see more humidity, a little bit more in the way of cloud cover, and eventually some additional storm chances. Those probably don’t become really notable until later in the week. Temperatures should start to increase some and push 90 degrees by Monday or Tuesday.

Bottom line: Enjoy this week’s stretch because you never know how many more like this we’ll get before summer sets in.

In brief: Showers and storms will cross the Houston area through mid-afternoon, with some possibly on the stronger or even severe side. Hail and gusty winds are the main concerns. It will turn sharply cooler this evening with gradual clearing tomorrow.

Things are quiet around Houston this morning, with just a few showers and a couple rumbles of thunder up near Huntsville. Otherwise, we have just a broken line of showers and embedded thunder on a line between about College Station and Columbus to our west.

Over the next couple hours, this “line” will move eastward, probably arriving in the Houston area itself around 12 to 2 PM. As the storms come east, the storms will likely strengthen some. That’s when we will see some heavier downpours, a little more lightning, and perhaps some 40 mph wind gusts. One or two storms could become severe with large hail, more damaging-type winds (60 mph) or even a very isolated tornado (mainly east of Houston). Those severe storms look to be the exception rather than the rule this afternoon, but we’ll continue to monitor things. We are in a level 3 of 5 (enhanced) risk northeast of Houston today for severe weather.

In addition to keeping an eye to the sky, keep an eye on the thermometer, especially this evening. Temperatures will peak in the 80s early this afternoon before dropping back into the 60s this evening and 50s before midnight. Out will be the humidity, in will be the light jacket. There will also likely be periodic showers this evening, possibly even a rumble of thunder or two. Things gradually clear out Sunday.

Just keep an eye on the weather today, but aside from one or two isolated severe storms, we do not anticipate things getting out of control.

In brief: Continued wind in Houston today will finally break tomorrow as a cold front ushers in showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. There is some severe weather risk on Saturday before we slowly clear out on a much cooler Sunday, setting up a gorgeous week to come.

Good morning, H-Town. Any day after an Astros “W” is a good day. The Astros are off today, and although the Rockets play an okay team from OKC tonight, today that W actually stands for wind.

Today

We’ll have to do some digging on how this spring has actually compared to previous springs in terms of wind when we get some time, but today is going to be no different. Wind advisories are again in effect today, and we’ll see southeast winds gusting as high as 35 mph. Oak pollen remains extremely high, and although we’re past peak now all this wind is going to keep carrying it around.

Outside of wind, expect another hot day today with temperature pushing well into the 80s and plenty of humidity. We get to track the potential for showers or a thunderstorm later this afternoon. Modeling has been trying to initiate storms near I-10 or just north before quickly lifting them northeastward. That may very well be what happens. As those storms move northeast, they’d be likely to intensify, and it’s not out of the question for a couple raucous storms to impact portions of Montgomery, Liberty, Walker, San Jacinto, or Polk Counties late today. We do not expect severe weather in the Houston Metro today. The highest severe risk remains up in far northeast Texas and Arkansas, where a moderate risk (4/5) is in place.

Saturday

After a continued breezy, warm, humid Friday night, we get to watch the potential for some strong thunderstorms on Saturday. The timing of the front hitting the area right now appears to be in the 11 AM through 4 PM window. It will enter the western parts of the area as a broken line of showers and some storms. As it crosses the Houston Metro, it will likely begin to ramp up a bit.

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight (level 2/5) risk for severe storms as this happens. The exact timing of the front may determine our odds of severe weather. A slower front would likely have more instability to tap into, whereas a faster front would hit earlier in the day with less instability. Generally speaking, the farther to the east you go, the better your chances of seeing severe thunderstorms. Whatever the case, we will update you Saturday morning (or possibly later today) with the latest. All severe weather hazards are on the table, including hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado or two. Additionally, any storm could easily dump 1 to 3 inches of rain in an hour causing some flash street flooding. Stay tuned.

Outside of storms, expect highs in the 80s again with lingering showers in the area Saturday evening.

Sunday

We will shift to a significantly cooler theme on Sunday. Some lingering clouds or even a few AM showers should give way to sunshine, but after a morning in the 50s or even upper-40s, we will limp into the lower or middle 60s for highs. It will feel awfully cool compared to how this week has been.

Next week

Bust open the windows! (responsibly, of course) It looks like Monday is going to be stellar. Morning lows in the 40s will be followed by daytime highs near 70 degrees. Tuesday? Nice; 50s to mid 70s. Wednesday? Nice; 50s to upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Thursday? Still nice! Warmer though with 80s. All we do is win, win, win no matter what next week. We’ll call that a “W” too.

In brief: Scattered showers and storms will pop up in the Houston area through the day today, leading to locally heavy rain, especially east of I-45. A couple stronger storms cannot be ruled out either, again especially to the east. After a quieter period this weekend and early next week, we may be in store for more unsettled weather and rain chances late next week and weekend.

Rainfall update

Of note in Texas, there was some truly awful flooding late yesterday and last night in the Rio Grande Valley. Harlingen had nearly 14 inches of rain yesterday with over 10″ falling between 5 and 11 PM last night. It was their wettest day on record, with all but one other top 25 wettest day occurring between May and November prior to yesterday. For McAllen, it was the third wettest day on record. Even Brownsville cracked their top 25 list as well.

Locally, we have not seen that kind of rain. Fulshear and Simonton saw some locally heavy rain, with 1 to 3 inches falling there, extending north into Waller County. And areas southwest of Wharton and around Matagorda Bay saw 1 to 4 inches. Harris County saw rain yesterday, but most areas saw a half-inch or less.

Radar this morning shows some heavier showers in Liberty County but mostly calm conditions elsewhere. As the day drags on, look for additional showers and embedded thunderstorms to crop up. I would not be at all surprised to see some very hefty downpours occur, particularly along or east of I-45 later this afternoon. We are in a marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms, so any storm that we see today could produce some gusty winds or even a brief, isolated tornado, particularly between Winnie and Lake Charles later today. However, I don’t want to discount the Houston area, as we have not exactly had great model performance with geographic placement of storms this week.

Rain totals are a bit tricky to nail down, but I would say, expect around a half-inch in Houston with a few higher amounts possible east of I-45, lesser amounts to the west. To the east, we should see 1 to 3 inches, with even some higher amounts possible in spots. We will keep our stage 1 flood alert in place. Rain rates yesterday were easily near 3 inches an hour in the Valley, and that could be noted here as well.

So, bottom line: Scattered showers and storms today. Especially this afternoon. Locally heavy downpours, especially east of I-45, along with a low-end severe weather risk. Localized street flooding remains a concern in those areas with heavier, more persistent rain.

Saturday

I’m going to spin tomorrow optimistically. I think we’ll start off cloudy, perhaps with some areas of fog. There may even be a few light showers around. But as the day progresses, I suspect we’ll see improvement, with more sunshine, less cloud cover, and high temperatures popping back into the 80s. We should hopefully be able to keep the Houston Open moving along.

Sunday

While the majority of Sunday looks fine in the Houston area, there will be a passing disturbance to our north. As this occurs, it could be enough to set off some thunderstorms, primarily north of I-10 and especially north of Highway 105 across Navasota, Conroe, and Cleveland. South of I-10, storms will be unlikely. The most likely time for a few storms would be in the late afternoon hours, heading into the early evening. Everything quickly clears to our east by mid to late-evening. We’ll warm from the upper-60s into the low-80s.

Early next week

We should get a weak front through here Sunday night or Monday morning that ushers in some notably more comfortable air for a day or so. Thereafter, the onshore machine will pump back warm, humid air off the Gulf and into Texas by Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday. Low temps should remain in the 60s with highs in the 80s most of the time. Daytime highs could push upper-80s by Wednesday.

Later next week

A more unsettled pattern looks to settle in over Texas and more broadly the Plains and Southeast later next week, which could linger through the weekend. I don’t expect a ton of rain here right now, but I do believe our thunderstorm chances will increase. This may be especially true as you get north of Houston and northeast into Louisiana and elsewhere.

That said, it’s too soon to say much more than that. As we noted in our Q&A post the other day, sometimes there is enough signal in the model noise to highlight a forecast risk, and in this case that’s what we have late next week and weekend. Stay tuned!