Matt Lanza

In brief: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely today, with a couple storms possibly becoming a little on the stronger to severe side. Cooler air follows this weekend, along with breezy conditions again. Temps stay more seasonable into next week.

Today & Saturday

The area is highlighted in a marginal (1/5) and slight (2/5) risk for severe storms today, with the higher risks the farther north you go.

Today’s severe threat is not a slam dunk case but rather somewhat of a conditional case. In other words, not everyone is going to see severe weather, but if the right set of circumstances can come together, we will see a couple severe storms, particularly north of Houston. All severe modes are on the table today, but gusty winds and potential hail seem like the higher risks. The tornado risk has been highlighted more into northern Louisiana.

Look for scattered showers to pop up over the next few hours this morning. Round one of storms would potentially occur between about 11 AM and 4 PM with isolated storms lifting northward from Harris County or Waller County into Grimes, Montgomery, Walker, Liberty, and San Jacinto Counties. Those are the storms that could turn strong to severe in a couple locations. Things should quiet down before a broken line of thunderstorms moves across the entire region this evening, probably before midnight. With those storms, we don’t expect severe weather but we will probably see some gusty winds and lightning. Also, given that it’s a broken line of storms, some of you may not see anything at all. Let’s hope most of us get a little rain today, as we need it!

It’ll turn breezy tonight behind that front. The winds may lag the line of storms by a few hours, but by Saturday morning we should see 30-35 mph wind gusts across most of the area. A few 40 mph gusts are possible Saturday with the initial onset of winds. Winds should slow down a bit in the afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, expect cooler temperatures. After mid to upper 70s today, we’ll drop into the 60s tonight and 50s for most of tomorrow.

Sunday’s Houston Marathon

For those of you all running the Houston Marathon (good luck, Eric!!), your race time forecast is temperatures around 42 to 45 degrees at 7 AM, warming to 52 to 55 degrees by midday. Temps may be slower to warm up if cloud cover sticks around too, which is a distinct possibility at this time. Winds should be out of the north around 5 to 8 mph, with perhaps a couple of gusts up to 10 to 15 mph. I am guessing that miles 12 to 18 could be mildly irritating with the wind in your face much of the time. But thankfully it should not be too terribly strong.

Rest of Sunday and next week

No serious weather concerns will be with us into next week. It looks like we’ll see temperatures a bit more seasonable as well. Highs will generally be in the 60s. We could see lows in the 30s on Monday morning, but aside from that, we’ll probably see mostly 40s for lows.

In brief: Houston is back to more classic December fare today, with low clouds, a gusty wind, and temps in the 40s. We’ll have a couple chilly nights tonight and tomorrow night before we make yet another run toward 80 by Friday. New Year’s plans look delightful, with no weather concerns at all right now.

Whew! It feels quite different outside this morning. Here’s a map of our 24-hour temperature changes.

This is our first morning in the 40s since December 20th. In that stretch, we’ve had 8 days in the 80s and 1 day near 80 (79° on Christmas Eve). Only 2012 and 2021 saw more 80-degree December days. We also set or tied 6 record highs in that stretch, hitting 84° on Sunday, our 2nd warmest December day on record. But that’s done for now. And so we discuss cool temperatures.

Today and Tuesday

That wind is going to remain with us most of this morning. By afternoon, it will begin to wind down, though it’ll remain a bit breezy. Gusts have been north of 50 mph at Hooks Airport in Tomball and in Galveston, 48 mph at Hobby, and 40 mph at Bush. Temperatures won’t go very far today. If the low clouds can clear out this afternoon, we’ll attempt to get into the low-50s as the models suggest. If the low clouds stay put, I may be apt to undercut model guidance and say we limp into the upper-40s at best.

Tonight will be cold, and there is a chance that a few spots get down around the freezing mark. It will probably just be the Conroes and isolated pockets in the Brazos Valleys of the world that get there thanks to a continued breeze and continued clouds. But either way, expect 30s away from the coast, a few low 30s north and west and 40 to low 40s at the coast. Tomorrow night will be a bit colder.

Tuesday looks splendid with sunshine developing. We should easily push into the 50s with lighter winds. Thanks to those clear skies and lighter winds, Tuesday night should be a bit colder than tonight.

Expect more 30s area-wide and a chance of a light freeze creeping closer than Conroe, perhaps in some of the more wooded areas in Montgomery, Liberty, and northern Harris Counties or isolated rural pockets of Fort Bend and Wharton Counties.

New Year’s Eve & New Year’s Day

We start to turn the corner Wednesday back upward into the 60s. Thursday may even push close to or past 70 degrees. For most NYE festivities on Wednesday, it looks great: Sunny and pleasant for the kiddos celebrating Noon Years and clear skies, light winds, and evening temps in the 50s, dropping into the 40s around or after Midnight. Enjoy!

Friday into the weekend

Temperatures should peak on Friday, as we’ll make yet another run toward 80 degrees. It’s probably notable that most of the area has not seen any appreciable rainfall since the beginning of December, which likely isn’t hurting these temps at all.

Whatever the case, the forecast trends a bit less confident beyond Friday, with some models indicating a bit of a small cool down, while others say Friday won’t be our last attempt to hit 80 degrees. Stay tuned.

In brief: A warming trend takes over today in Houston with 60s likely. Rain showers or an isolated thunderstorm and areas of fog arrive tomorrow for some, not all of the area, while a very warm day sets up on Thursday. A cool front will disrupt the warming trend Friday before we surge upward again. Record highs will be at risk next week in Houston.

We’re starting off warmer this morning. In most cases, we’re running about 8 to 12 degrees warmer than Monday morning at the same time.

Tuesday

Warmer will indeed be the theme today. While it should be sunny today, there will be a fair bit of high cirrus around to dim the sun at times. Otherwise, we’ll manage 60s this afternoon and a generally lovely late autumn day.

Wednesday and Thursday

Wednesday looks like our best chance at scattered showers over the next week or so. A lot of folks will see nothing. But in general, expect low clouds, some areas of fog, and scattered showers or even a rogue thunderstorm tomorrow. Highs will shoot up to about 70 degrees.

The potential for fog, especially sea fog returns Wednesday night and Thursday morning as rain chances diminish and a warmer, more humid air mass establishes. Depending on how much sunshine we get, we could push deep into the 70s Thursday. The next cold front will hit Thursday afternoon or evening. It should not carry much, if any moisture with it, but it will lead to a sharp drop in humidity, a wind shift, and cooling temperatures.

Friday

By Friday morning, temperatures will have dropped into the 40s across most of the area.

Friday looks like a delightful day with highs warming into the low to mid-60s.

Weekend and next week

Onshore flow resumes Friday night, and we’re going to warm up big time heading into next week. Highs will push well into the 70s on Saturday and perhaps the 80s on Sunday. And from there, it doesn’t change a whole lot next week. Here’s a chart that shows each day’s record high temperature, as well as a forecast high temperature range from various operational and ensemble model guidance.

Date	Record High	Current forecast high range
Saturday 12/20	81° (1921)	77-80°
Sunday 12/21	82° (2010)	78-82°
Monday 12/22	81° (2017)	72-81°
Tuesday 12/23	81° (2020)	76-81°
Wednesday 12/24	82° (1955)	78-83°
Thursday 12/25	83° (2015)	79-84°
Friday 12/26	84° (2016)	78-83°

The wild card day right now looks like Monday, which could see a brief nudge of cooler air before temps surge again. Our next shot at a meaningful cold front may not be until next weekend or later. But the takeaway is that record highs are very much in play every day between Saturday and next Friday, with perhaps the exception of Monday. Stay tuned.

In brief: For the most part, Houston’s forecast hasn’t changed, and that’s what we’ve checked in on this Sunday to tell you. Lows in the 30s tonight across most of the Houston area, with a light freeze likely, mainly north of I-10 and outside the urban center.

Cloud cover is giving today a pretty gloomy feel, albeit perfect weather to watch the Texans. Those clouds are eroding though, and by evening, most of the area should be mainly clear.

With the clear skies, light winds, and a fresh, cold air mass overhead, we’ll be able to see temperatures drop steadily tonight through the 40s and into the 30s. This isn’t a super cold air mass, so it sort of remains to be seen how much of the area can trip the freezing mark tonight, but if I were a betting man (which after watching NFL RedZone all day, they seem to think I am), I would suspect that about 60 to 70% of places north of I-10 will do so.

Within the confines of Beltway 8, most of us will probably see 33 to 37 degrees. Between Beltway 8 and the Grand Parkway, you’re probably looking at 31 to 34 degrees north of I-10 and 32 to 35 degrees south of I-10. Outside Grand Parkway north of I-10, most places should do 28 to 32 degrees and 30 to 34 degrees south of I-10. As you can see from the map above, the core of the cold air mass shoots east of us into Louisiana with 20s for Beaumont, Lake Charles, and Acadiana. This is the type of cold weather we get at least several times a winter, so minimal issues are expected, but if you’ve got some extra sensitive plants outdoors, it may be a good idea to prep them.

But we will warm

Look, if cold isn’t your thing, we’ll do 50s tomorrow, 60s on Tuesday, 70s on Wednesday, and near 80 on Thursday. It looks like we get one more weak front before the real warming begins. Eric will have more on that in the morning. In the meantime, stay warm, and go Texans!