In brief: For the most part, Houston’s forecast hasn’t changed, and that’s what we’ve checked in on this Sunday to tell you. Lows in the 30s tonight across most of the Houston area, with a light freeze likely, mainly north of I-10 and outside the urban center.
Cloud cover is giving today a pretty gloomy feel, albeit perfect weather to watch the Texans. Those clouds are eroding though, and by evening, most of the area should be mainly clear.
Clouds exiting the region this afternoon. (College of DuPage)
With the clear skies, light winds, and a fresh, cold air mass overhead, we’ll be able to see temperatures drop steadily tonight through the 40s and into the 30s. This isn’t a super cold air mass, so it sort of remains to be seen how much of the area can trip the freezing mark tonight, but if I were a betting man (which after watching NFL RedZone all day, they seem to think I am), I would suspect that about 60 to 70% of places north of I-10 will do so.
Freezing for some but not all of the area tonight. (Pivotal Weather)
Within the confines of Beltway 8, most of us will probably see 33 to 37 degrees. Between Beltway 8 and the Grand Parkway, you’re probably looking at 31 to 34 degrees north of I-10 and 32 to 35 degrees south of I-10. Outside Grand Parkway north of I-10, most places should do 28 to 32 degrees and 30 to 34 degrees south of I-10. As you can see from the map above, the core of the cold air mass shoots east of us into Louisiana with 20s for Beaumont, Lake Charles, and Acadiana. This is the type of cold weather we get at least several times a winter, so minimal issues are expected, but if you’ve got some extra sensitive plants outdoors, it may be a good idea to prep them.
But we will warm
Look, if cold isn’t your thing, we’ll do 50s tomorrow, 60s on Tuesday, 70s on Wednesday, and near 80 on Thursday. It looks like we get one more weak front before the real warming begins. Eric will have more on that in the morning. In the meantime, stay warm, and go Texans!
In brief: A lovely day today in Houston will give way to a warm up tomorrow and fog and shower chances on Saturday. Our next front Sunday morning may knock temps back close to freezing in spots on Monday morning before we begin what could be a prolonged, serious warm up leading into Christmas.
Today
It’s a crisp start to Thursday with temperatures in the 40s and some pockets of 30s in northern fringes of the region. It will be a lovely day today with highs in the 60s to perhaps near 70 in spots south and west of Houston. Lots of sunshine.
Friday and Saturday
Tomorrow looks like our transition back into warmer temperatures. With clouds and sun, we should manage to warm from the 40s and 50s in the morning to the 60s and 70s in the afternoon. Some areas near Downtown or just southeast of there will push the mid to upper-70s.
Balmy weather to close out the week tomorrow! (Pivotal Weather)
Friday night will be milder with lows the 50s to low-60s mostly. Saturday does feature a return of shower chances, though if you have outdoor plans I’m not quite sure it’s anything you need to plan around just yet. The day will start gloomy with areas of perhaps dense fog and some drizzle. Gradually, skies should brighten, and with that will come the shower or isolated thunderstorm chance.
Sunday
On Saturday night, a cold front will push through with another chance at showers or a thunderstorm. The front is currently timed to hit around sunrise on Sunday. Temperatures may actually drop through the morning on Sunday back into the 50s across the area for most of the afternoon. Our high temperature on Sunday may be around or just after Midnight. It will turn blustery too with 10 to 20 mph winds across the area, higher on the coast.
Could parts of the area freeze Monday morning?
As Eric noted yesterday, temperatures falling into the 30s was possible on Sunday night. Recent model trends have gotten more aggressive with bringing colder air into the area. To be clear, this won’t be a hard or particularly dangerous freeze. However, inland, rural, sheltered locations could nudge back close to 30 degrees. In Houston proper, I doubt we get much below 34 degrees right now, but it will be quite chilly on Monday morning.
Monday morning’s forecast lows come with the caveat that colder risks exist right now. (Pivotal Weather)
Stay tuned!
Next week
Monday itself will be cold with highs only in the 50s. Tuesday should warm into the 60s with milder morning lows (40s mostly). By Wednesday we are in the 70s. Beyond Wednesday, the question will become how warm it gets. As Eric alluded to on Wednesday, the run up to Christmas looks quite warm. In fact, over 50 percent of model ensemble members are calling for a high temperature above 80 degrees by next weekend. It appears that it will not feel like Christmas this year in the days leading up to the holiday. More to come.
In brief: Those gray skies are running out of time, Houston. We expect showers or light rain at times today with brightening skies on Saturday. The sun should return in all its glory on Sunday, with warmer temps, followed by a brief cooldown early next week. We return to 70 or so by mid to late next week.
Sorry for the delayed post this morning; I had a donuts morning with one of my kids, and while I love our audience, I also love donuts. Because, warm Shipley donuts. So, apologies, but surely you’ll understand.
It’s been a bit of dreary week, starting off on a cold, damp note, followed by a chilly Tuesday, a graying Wednesday, a damp Thursday, and now a cold, damp Friday. Thankfully, if you need a dose of sun in your life, you’ll be getting one soon.
Today
Dreary is the operative word. Though, I will say I saw blue sky poking through the overcast earlier. I’m not optimistic today though. Look for occasional light rain, drizzle, or passing showers in most of the area. Coastal areas today may see a steadier rain at times. Temps don’t budge a whole lot. We’re starting in the 40s and perhaps we’ll push 50 degrees in spots, especially south of Houston this afternoon. Generally, rain totals will be a tenth of an inch or less in most spots.
Saturday
Showers may linger through the overnight hours and into early Saturday morning. Most of the rain will end. We should see some brightening skies Saturday afternoon as well. If we get sunshine, we may push into the mid-60s. If we stay cloudy, we’ll maybe sneak above 60 degrees or so.
Sunday
We finally unstick this pattern Sunday. I would expect decreasing clouds, increasing sunshine, highs a bit warmer, in the upper-60s to low-70s (after morning lows in the 40s and 50s), and just an overall nicer day. Winds could become a bit gusty at times later Sunday or Sunday evening as a reinforcing dry cold front pushes in.
Monday & Tuesday
Back to cooler weather but with sunshine!
A chilly morning awaits on Tuesday. (Pivotal Weather)
Morning lows will be in the 40s on Monday and 30s and 40s on Tuesday, followed by highs in the 50s to near 60 Monday and perhaps a bit warmer Tuesday.
Later next week
A warmer pattern establishes after Tuesday, with highs probably in the 70s on Wednesday and staying around 70 or so through next weekend.
Break out the shorts on Wednesday! (Pivotal Weather)
Morning lows should creep back into the 50s and eventually the 60s. I would not be shocked to see some sea fog emerge at some point by next weekend. At this point, rain chances are mostly absent after this weekend, with the next hint in models holding off until at least next Sunday or Monday. Milder weather is probably going to linger a bit longer with the brunt of any cold directed into the Eastern U.S. over the next 10 days or so. We’ll see if that can change late in the week of the 15th.
In brief: Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to Houston on Saturday with a low-end (marginal, 1/5) severe weather risk. Any severe weather will be isolated. Much colder weather will follow Sunday with highs in the 50s. Periods of rain and temperatures in the 40s (!) on Monday. Nicer weather after Monday.
I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving, and a special thank you to those who were working during the holiday. We can speak graciously of our colleagues at the National Weather Service office or those on TV. But we know many others were needed at work too. So, thank you.
Fundraiser
Much like your fridge with leftovers, I imagine your inbox is stuffed with amazing deals from #brands today. Just don’t forget local and small businesses! And if you want some Houston-centric merchandise for yourself or family this holiday season, we are in the final days of our annual fundraiser now. The finish line hits Monday. Then we don’t get to bug you again until next November. If you feel compelled, we greatly appreciate your support. Thank you!
Today
Quiet weather is with us for one more day. Look for clouds to perhaps increase through the afternoon or evening hours as we begin to transition back to a warmer air mass ahead of tomorrow’s next front and storm system.
Saturday
Alright, the headline for Saturday is that the entire area is under a marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms.
A marginal risk (1/5) is in place for severe storms on Saturday. (NOAA SPC)
Back on Monday, we were in a slight risk (2/5), so the setup this time around is a tinge less impressive. Just want to benchmark this. That said, here’s how it should play out.
Saturday morning: If you have plans in the morning hours tomorrow, a few showers, drizzle, or sprinkles are possible but nothing worse than that. The AM looks fine.
Saturday afternoon: Showers will become more scattered, especially north and west of Downtown Houston, with an isolated strong to severe storm possible after 2-3 PM or so. All modes of severe weather (strong winds, hail, isolated tornadoes) are in play Saturday but none looks especially likely. In most cases, storms will be benign with just thunder, lightning, and heavy downpours. But one or two could push severe levels.
Saturday evening: Isolated strong to severe storms will continue to be possible north and west of Houston but a squall line of widespread moderate thunderstorms should develop and track south and east after 8 to 10 PM or so, reaching the coast by about 2 to 3 AM. Within this line of storms could be some gusty winds to 40 mph or so. I think this is especially true around Galveston Bay or on the Island. But risk of tornadoes or hail should back off.
Rain totals on Saturday should be around an inch or less in most spots, with a couple areas perhaps seeing 1 to 2 inches. (Pivotal Weather)
After 3 AM, the line of storms should push offshore and conditions will improve. Gusty north winds will follow, with gusts at times of 30 to 35 mph or even a little stronger on the coast.
Sunday
We’ll close the weekend on a bit of a chilly, raw note. Look for clouds to dominate, though I’ll hold out hope for at least a little sunshine in a few spots. Maybe. Temperatures will be steady in the low-50s. If we see some sun, we could pop into the mid-50s.
Monday
Our next storm system glides in Sunday night, delivering a wintry-type day Monday. Expect chilly temperatures, mostly in the 40s Monday. Some places may be lucky to get above 45 degrees. Additionally, rain. Look for periods of rain, showers, and probably even a couple rumbles of thunder around the area.
Monday will be a shock to the system after one of the warmest Novembers on record. (Pivotal Weather)
Rain totals are a little less confident of a forecast. These types of setups tend to favor the coastal areas, where perhaps 1 inch or more of rain is possible. However, some model guidance does include higher totals inland as well. For now, I would expect a quarter to half-inch on average with pockets of the area likely seeing 1 inch or more.
After Monday
Quieter weather follows Monday, with our next chance of rain perhaps Thursday or Friday. Tuesday and Wednesday morning will see lows in the 30s and low-40s, so it’ll be chilly. Highs will be in the 50s on Wednesday and back into the 60s on Thursday and Friday.
