In brief: Good evening! Matt here with a quick update for you on the weather that has, well, escalated across Houston. I am currently writing this from my son’s bed because some of the lightning (as many of you will attest) was too close for comfort.
As of 10:30 pm CT we have a nearly stationary line of thunderstorms anchored over the Highway 59 corridor, or on either side. It’s maneuvering around a bit but not enough to avoid some developing flooding issues. There is a flash flood warning in effect for this area until midnight.
Area of flash flood warning in effect until midnight. (National Weather Service)
Rain rates have been on the order of 2 to 4 inches an hour in the heaviest downpours. We would advise you to drive cautiously this evening. Based on modeling, our best guess is that this may continue through 12-2 AM and then quickly push out of here. Storms exiting the Texas coast to our south should help to get that going. But there is certainly a hint of uncertainty given how this system developed into unexpectedly potent showers and thunderstorms.
We will have the latest for you in the morning or overnight if for some reason things continue to get worse.
In brief: Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening in the Houston area, especially north of I-10. Hail and strong wind gusts are the main concerns. Heavy rain is also likely in spots, so a stage 1 flood alert has been posted. After today, we get some quiet, if not absolutely beautiful weather this weekend.
Today/tonight
So, let’s get this out of the way first: This morning looks fine. No issues.
Starting this afternoon, probably not long after lunchtime, numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to begin developing north of I-10. The environment over Houston looks conducive for virtually any storm to become strong to severe today. As such, we are now in an enhanced risk (3/5) of severe weather this afternoon and evening.
An enhanced risk (3/5) is posted for severe weather today. (NOAA SPC)
The two main threats today will be pockets of strong wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph and the potential for hail. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out, but the bigger risks are damaging wind and hail today. The evolution of storms today will probably be individual cells eventually congealing into a line that lingers for a bit over much of the Houston area, again focused near or north of I-10. The severe storm threat should begin to wane after sunset, but additional thunderstorms are likely, especially south of I-10 overnight. So, almost everyone should get a chance to participate today with the nastier storms north this afternoon and evening and less intense storms south this evening and overnight.
In addition to the hail and wind, these storms could produce torrential rainfall, with totals of up to 3 or 4 inches possible in isolated pockets. Street flooding could easily crop up with storms like this. So, with that in mind, we are issuing a stage 1 flood alert for this afternoon and evening across the area, mainly north of I-10.
There are always fail modes on days like this, and it could be that we end up with heavy rain and generic thunderstorms more so than severe weather. But the environment today is definitely primed for some strong to severe storms, so particularly between about 1 PM and 8 PM, you’ll want to remain tuned into what’s happening.
Eric will have the latest for you around midday with a fresh update. We will follow with further updates as needed thereafter.
Saturday and Sunday
After some lingering showers well south of Houston or near the coast in the morning, Saturday itself looks like a fine day. Actually, it may end up being an absolutely spectacular day, but I want to keep expectations a little in check. But expect a return of some sunshine, noticeably lower humidity, and highs into the low 80s. Morning lows should be in the lower 60s. Look for much the same on Sunday without the morning shower chance.
You never know when you’re going to get your last really, really nice day before summer sinks in, so take advantage of tomorrow and Sunday if you’re able!
Next week
After another decent day Monday (albeit a bit warmer), we will re-emerge into an unsettled weather pattern for much of next week. Day by day details are tough to pin down right now, but look for at least a chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Some of the storms could be strong, and some of the rain could be heavy.
More data!
I generally abide by a separation of church and state when it comes to my day job and my work with Space City Weather. However, I am going to make a minor exception in this case. For those that do not know, I was hired in November to be CenterPoint Energy’s new manager of meteorology. Among the many things I was tasked with out of the gate was siting and launching a network of 100 weather sensors across the Houston area, as part of the company’s commitments in the Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative. In case you had not seen earlier this week, that process is now underway, and you can see the data from over 60 new weather sensors across the area here!
A map of just CenterPoint’s new weather sensors (Synoptic)
You may ask, “Well aren’t there already a lot of weather sensors reporting here?” The answer is yes. There are. But even when you plot virtually every network of weather stations, there are still some data gaps, there are periodically reliability issues, and most of you know how the weather goes in Houston where it rains at your neighbor’s house but not yours.
A map of all the weather sensors from all networks across the Houston area. (Synoptic)
I’m hoping we can fill some of those gaps, assist with improving weather forecasting in the Houston area, and add additional data to be used by the NWS, flood control agencies, etc. to assist in understanding or researching weather in the Houston area. More data is good for everyone. So this project has excited me, I’m glad we can share this data with the weather community, and I look forward to seeing it grow further.
In brief: One more chance at scattered storms exists today in Houston, followed by a quiet, hot weekend. We’ll get some classic early summer fare before our next chance at storms and a possible cool front later next week.
Most parts of the Houston area have seen a pretty good week in the rainfall department. Everyone has seen about a half inch to an inch of rain, with a couple exceptions near Wharton, College Station, and the East End of Galveston onto the Bolivar Peninsula.
Locations that saw at least 2.5 inches of rain this week. (NOAA)
Three areas really stood out this week. The area just north of Baytown and west of Mont Belvieu saw over 6 inches of rain. Pearland also got close to 6 inches of rainfall in spots. It’s likely that Liverpool in Brazoria County may have seen even higher totals this week. The area just south of Lake Livingston also saw nearly 6 inches of rain. So, your mileage definitely varies, but all in all a beneficial week of rainfall here.
Today
We have one “kinda sorta” chance of rain today. This should not be anything organized; just heating of the day random pop-up downpours. Most places will probably be dry today, but those that see a downpour could snag a quick quarter to half inch of additional rainfall or even a bit more along with some thunder and lightning. Otherwise, expect decreasing clouds and highs well into the 80s. All good for the Dash match tonight.
Saturday and Sunday
Both days may start off with clouds but transition to sunshine. Expect warm, humid conditions all weekend. Highs will be in the mid to upper-80s, with lows around 70 degrees. MS150 riders will get the tailwind this weekend at least, out of the southeast 5 to 15 mph or so. An isolated downpour can’t be entirely ruled out for the weekend, especially on Sunday, but it seems highly unlikely. Conditions look all good for the SaberCats or Dynamo matches Saturday.
Monday and Tuesday
I would expect more of the same for the start of next week: Clouds to sun, highs in the upper-80s and lows in the low to mid-70s. We do have a chance at 90 degrees on Tuesday.
Surface map forecast for next Friday morning showing a chance that a cold front pushes through Houston. We’ll see if that actually occurs. (NOAA)
Wednesday and onward
Conditions get more unsettled Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. We’ll see about risks for heavy rain or any severe weather; it’s too soon to say at the moment, but it would seem we will get a couple rounds of storms in the area. We could see a push of drier air follow a cool front on Thursday, which could set up a nice end of the week. Fingers crossed.
In brief: The first part of the weekend looks good, but we do expect Houston to see thunderstorms on Easter Sunday. Some of those storms could be strong, and that will be followed by more storm chances next week. Springtime is in force.
Today & Saturday
If you like hot weather, you’re in luck! There’s a pretty good chance we’ll hit or exceed 90 degrees today. It will also be quite breezy with south winds gusting up to 30 mph or so. Other than that, expect a mix of clouds and sun.
Many parts of the area will hit the upper-80s to low-90s today. (Pivotal Weather)
Saturday will be a bit cloudier. We’ll have a very mild morning, with lows probably not much below 75 degrees, close to a record for warmest April 19th morning. The day should again be breezy, mostly cloudy, and not quite as hot (but plenty humid). Highs should get into the mid or upper-80s. Shower chances look minimal, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the sky squeezed out a few raindrops here or there. Better shower chances will exist back toward Hill Country.
Easter Sunday
Sunday morning will be at least a little interesting. There should be a line or complex of thunderstorms near I-35 and the Austin area around sunrise. As those cross I-35 and move toward southeast Texas, they *should* begin to fall apart. Thus, the morning should be mostly cloudy with a couple showers here or there. As the boundary from that decaying line of storms hits Houston in the afternoon, we should see new thunderstorms blossom across the area. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, and the SPC has us partially in a marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather on Sunday. This could yet change some between now and Sunday.
A marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather is in place on Sunday for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, with gusty winds or hail a possibility. (NOAA SPC)
In addition to the potential for some strong to severe storms, atmospheric moisture levels will be more typical of mid-summer, so we could see some torrential downpours and localized street flooding crop up.
Eric and I will monitor this through tomorrow and have any updates for you on Sunday morning.
Next week
The cold front that will be responsible for the storms on Sunday is likely to stall out or wash out overhead. I would not be shocked to see the focus of thunderstorm activity on Monday to stay mostly east of Houston, closer to Lake Charles and Beaumont. But by Tuesday, that may swing back toward us, leading to scattered storms for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday or Thursday. This is the time of year where we can see afternoon storms blow up in portions of north or central Texas, organize into a cluster, and make their way toward us as complexes of storms called mesoscale convective systems (or MCS’s). I would not be at all shocked to see us have to wrangle that next week at least once. Bottom line: It looks unsettled.
Rain totals of an inch or more inland and at least a half-inch at the coast are likely through next week. There will be higher amounts peppered in as well. (Pivotal Weather)
It’s a bit early to get into potential specifics, but it does appear that next week will be active. The clouds and shower chances will hold daytime temperatures lower next week (more like low 80s), with warm nighttimes in the upper-60s to low-70s.
