Matt Lanza

In brief: A lot of rinse and repeat for Houston the rest of this week, with temperatures hotter today and tomorrow and then perhaps the hottest of the year so far on Friday. But more pleasant weather arrives for the weekend.

Happy Tuesday, y’all! Matt here, stepping in for Eric for a couple days this week so he can focus on space matters. Eric was kind enough to preview our summer thoughts yesterday while we experience our own sorta summer preview here this week. That said, we only hit 84 degrees yesterday, which was not exactly terrible.

Today & tomorrow

And today, we’ll probably do a couple hotter than that. And on Wednesday? Just a little hotter. Look for solid mid-80s today and mid to upper-80s tomorrow. Morning fog in spots will give way to ample sunshine and a few fair-weather clouds. If you squint, you may make out a few raindrops later today, particularly around Galveston Bay. It’s too early in the year for sea breeze storm season (or “rain o’clock” as I lovingly refer to it), but models are showing a few light showers later.

Thursday & Friday

Temperatures on Thursday might actually slip a degree or so, into the mid-80s. Will the roof be open on Opening Day at Daikin Park? Place your bets!

For the UH game and Big Ten reunion Thursday night, it looks delightful, with temperatures in the 70s.

Now, Friday is when we may see our hottest temperatures of the year so far. With a cool front approaching, a compressed air mass, and upper level temperatures well above normal for March, it stands to reason that 90 degrees is attainable. If I were a $10 Cowboy like Charley Crockett, I would place $8 on 89° and a dollar each on 88 and 90 degrees. Could we do hotter? Absolutely. But I would say those odds are fairly low right now. Either way, it will be quite hot for late March.

Weekend

A healthy but moisture-starved cool front will push through the area on Saturday. You will notice a change in things Saturday afternoon, with highs in the upper-70s, slightly lower humidity and northeasterly breeze. For now, I don’t expect much in the way of showers with the front, but I wouldn’t say we’d entirely rule one or two out.

Then on Sunday it looks like we inch back into the lower 80s after a refreshing morning with lows in the 50s. Lots of events going on around the area this weekend, and the weather looks cooperative right now. P.S.: Don’t forget the sunscreen!

Hints of change next week?

It’s too soon to start discussing specifics, but it does appear that the pattern will begin to change a little next week. Eric alluded to this yesterday. We should expect to see additional rain chances enter the picture by midweek, and the 8-to-14-day rainfall outlook is currently medium confidence above normal.

You always have to use some caution when you’re in long-term drought like we are right now; often times these wetter pattern change forecasts in the models end up being mirages more than anything. We’ll place a bookmark in this once more and check back again tomorrow.

In brief: Houston is going to be doing some heavy flirting with 90 degrees beginning today and continuing into next week. That’s it. That’s the summary.

If you are Very Online™ or even if you’re not, surely you’ve seen someone post their memories of the 90s in the latest viral trend. Well, we may once again find out what we were like in the 90s for the first sustained period since October.

Today through Monday

Not a lot to say here. There could be some late night or early morning fog each day, but otherwise it looks clear, with nothing worse than some passing high clouds at times. Temperatures will warm into the mid or upper-80s today, upper 80s to near 90 tomorrow and Sunday, and perhaps near 90 again Monday with a slight chance of slightly drier air.

Houston Rodeo Forecast

Hard to believe that we’re coming to the end of the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this weekend. Temperatures should fall rather quickly from the 80s into the 70s this evening and Sunday evening. It will be hot tomorrow, with upper-80s to near 90 degrees so if you are attending, just keep that in mind and make sure to stay hydrated, preferably with water if you’ll be doing any of the outside attractions.

Tuesday through Thursday

Even if we manage to cool down some on Sunday night or Monday, we will quickly bounce back well into the 80s next week. And yes, we will flirt with a chance of 90 degrees every day it appears. Blind Melon’s “No Rain” (1992) is a nice companion soundtrack next week.

Later next week

Can we get a cold front next weekend? That’s the question. There are strong signs within model data that we may see a brief cooldown next Saturday and Sunday (think highs in the 70s or low 80s). Right now, it does not appear that any kind of cold front will come with meaningful rainfall but we may at least get to enjoy some slightly less May-like weather for a few days. Stay tuned.

In brief: A spectacular Friday and a winner of a Saturday will close Houston’s spring break week out nicely. Sunday will be warm and humid before a powerful cold front brings a pinch of rain and some potent winds in the evening and overnight hours. Much colder weather will drop temperatures from the 80s Sunday evening to the 40s Monday morning. Things then calm down.

After a cool but delightful Thursday, we set sail for another winner of a day today.

Friday & Saturday

It’ll be a cool start to the morning, but the day should warm up nicely, with highs in the mid or even upper-70s in spots on Friday. Saturday looks much the same with highs near 80 degrees. Humidity will slowly begin to inch upward later today and on Saturday, which you won’t notice a ton. Morning lows will be in the 50s tomorrow.

Rodeo Forecast

Spectacular evening for getting (responsibly) tipsy with Shaboozey. Temps will fall from the 70s into the 60s through the evening with light winds. The weather continues to look good for a moment like this on Saturday with Kelly Clarkson. Expect temperatures mainly in the 70s, maybe dipping into the upper-60s late. And then Sunday, it’ll be a little breezier and a little cloudier. Temperatures will be much warmer, and it will be humid. Look for 80s with a south wind blowing in around 20 to 30 mph. Prometiste.

Sunday night and Monday

Here’s where the forecast gets a little wild. The cold front hits the area in the evening hours Sunday, after highs in the mid-80s. It will probably carry a broken line of thunderstorms. We don’t currently expect any severe weather from this, but it’s possible some strong storms occur, especially in northeast Harris or Liberty County. The area is in a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms. But the front is going to arrive with some oomph. As winds flip around to come out of the north, they could gust over 40 mph for a few hours Sunday evening. Temperatures will also drop about 30 to 40 degrees from highs in the 80s to lows in the 40s.

We try not to be too preachy on the blog here, but this is one of those times where we’ll strongly encourage you to secure any loose outdoor objects, as these may be our strongest post-frontal winds since October, or even since last March. Those wind gusts will keep up into Monday morning, though slowly back off their peak levels, still probably 30 to 40 mph though. After Noon on Monday, winds should more rapidly drop off into the 20s mph. We are probably not getting out of the mid to upper-50s on Monday, even with sunshine. Monday night will be cold with lows in the 30s and low-40s.

Rest of next week

We sort of break out of this fairly active weather pattern next week, with quieter weather, warming temperatures, and increasing humidity. 70s should return by Wednesday and 80s by Thursday. Our next chance at rain after Sunday may be a good way away.

In brief: Saturday’s forecast in Houston has some perplexity to it in terms of when and where storms will occur, but we’re leaning toward a quieter first half of the day, with storm chances increasing Saturday evening and overnight. Hail is possible in a couple of the strongest storms. Sunday could see locally strong storms with heavy downpours. Don’t forget to “spring forward” Saturday night!

We’ve got some more active weather in the cards for this weekend but nothing that’s too scary. It’s mostly going to serve as a reminder that we still get storms here sometimes!

Today

No real concerns today, as we’re likely to see clouds, some sun, and highs in the 80s. There could be a passing pocket of light rain or a shower. Even a rogue thunderclap can’t be entirely ruled out this afternoon, especially north and west of Houston. Continue to be mindful of dense, erratic sea fog near the coast. We may see that break up some today and return tonight.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast gets busier for this weekend. While an isolated shower or storm can’t be ruled out overnight, especially off to the northwest of Houston, it doesn’t appear much will occur before tomorrow morning. However, on Saturday, we expect showers and thunderstorms to develop later in the afternoon or evening. The entire area away from the coast is under a slight risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

Based on what I can tell from forecast models and the NWS discussions, the primary driver for the slight risk is potential for isolated large hail. Storms could still carry lightning obviously or isolated strong wind gusts, but from a “severe” perspective, hail seems to be driving the risk. That said, we do not expect hail all over the city…I just want to make that clear. Any large hail would probably be confined to a few neighborhoods only in the strongest storms.

But what about timing? Well, the European model has insisted for days now that a squall line of storms would push through Houston in the afternoon hours. Now that we’re in range of higher resolution model guidance, the picture is a lot murkier. Most high-res models keep most of the area storm free during the daylight hours Saturday. You can compared the Euro to the HRRR model above. However, by later Saturday evening, that may be when you’ve got the chance for stronger storms in a few spots, especially north and west of Houston. So there’s some inherent uncertainty tomorrow, but for the most part I don’t think you’ll have too many issues in the morning or early afternoon. Storm chances will perk up in the later afternoon and evening hours, especially north and west of Houston I think. We’ll update you on this tomorrow morning.

For Sunday, right now I would say scattered thunderstorms throughout the day, with perhaps a focus north of I-10 in the first half of the day and south of I-10 in the second half of the day. Locally strong storms are possible, and one or two could put down some significant rainfall in a short amount of time, so be mindful of street flooding in areas that see the most persistent storms Sunday.

Rodeo forecast

If you’re headed to the Rodeo this weekend, you’ve got few concerns tonight for Lizzo. It looks good. There will be that chance of a thunderstorm on Saturday, especially upon exiting Dwight Yoakam. Just be aware of the potential, but as noted above, storms will at least be possible. Temps will be in the low to mid-70s each evening. Sunday may be the highest odds of showers and thunderstorms, along with locally heavy rain. Even if it isn’t raining when you leave, if you’re headed to see Forrest Frank, you’ll want the raincoat and a little extra time to get to and from NRG Stadium just in case. Temps should be in the mid to upper-70s.

Early next week

Monday and Tuesday look sufficiently quiet right now with nothing worse than a rogue shower. Highs will be in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s and low-70s.

Wednesday

After those quieter days Monday and Tuesday, it does look like we get a quick but potent storm system in the area on Wednesday. It’s too soon to speak with much confidence about this system or its potential, but early indications are that there will be at least some strong to perhaps severe storms, especially the first half of Wednesday, especially north of I-10. The SPC has highlighted the north side of the city in Wednesday’s severe weather risk, which is akin to saying a slight risk (2/5) this far out.

More to come on this next week.