Matt Lanza

In brief: Continued wind in Houston today will finally break tomorrow as a cold front ushers in showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. There is some severe weather risk on Saturday before we slowly clear out on a much cooler Sunday, setting up a gorgeous week to come.

Good morning, H-Town. Any day after an Astros “W” is a good day. The Astros are off today, and although the Rockets play an okay team from OKC tonight, today that W actually stands for wind.

Today

We’ll have to do some digging on how this spring has actually compared to previous springs in terms of wind when we get some time, but today is going to be no different. Wind advisories are again in effect today, and we’ll see southeast winds gusting as high as 35 mph. Oak pollen remains extremely high, and although we’re past peak now all this wind is going to keep carrying it around.

Outside of wind, expect another hot day today with temperature pushing well into the 80s and plenty of humidity. We get to track the potential for showers or a thunderstorm later this afternoon. Modeling has been trying to initiate storms near I-10 or just north before quickly lifting them northeastward. That may very well be what happens. As those storms move northeast, they’d be likely to intensify, and it’s not out of the question for a couple raucous storms to impact portions of Montgomery, Liberty, Walker, San Jacinto, or Polk Counties late today. We do not expect severe weather in the Houston Metro today. The highest severe risk remains up in far northeast Texas and Arkansas, where a moderate risk (4/5) is in place.

Saturday

After a continued breezy, warm, humid Friday night, we get to watch the potential for some strong thunderstorms on Saturday. The timing of the front hitting the area right now appears to be in the 11 AM through 4 PM window. It will enter the western parts of the area as a broken line of showers and some storms. As it crosses the Houston Metro, it will likely begin to ramp up a bit.

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight (level 2/5) risk for severe storms as this happens. The exact timing of the front may determine our odds of severe weather. A slower front would likely have more instability to tap into, whereas a faster front would hit earlier in the day with less instability. Generally speaking, the farther to the east you go, the better your chances of seeing severe thunderstorms. Whatever the case, we will update you Saturday morning (or possibly later today) with the latest. All severe weather hazards are on the table, including hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado or two. Additionally, any storm could easily dump 1 to 3 inches of rain in an hour causing some flash street flooding. Stay tuned.

Outside of storms, expect highs in the 80s again with lingering showers in the area Saturday evening.

Sunday

We will shift to a significantly cooler theme on Sunday. Some lingering clouds or even a few AM showers should give way to sunshine, but after a morning in the 50s or even upper-40s, we will limp into the lower or middle 60s for highs. It will feel awfully cool compared to how this week has been.

Next week

Bust open the windows! (responsibly, of course) It looks like Monday is going to be stellar. Morning lows in the 40s will be followed by daytime highs near 70 degrees. Tuesday? Nice; 50s to mid 70s. Wednesday? Nice; 50s to upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Thursday? Still nice! Warmer though with 80s. All we do is win, win, win no matter what next week. We’ll call that a “W” too.

In brief: Scattered showers and storms will pop up in the Houston area through the day today, leading to locally heavy rain, especially east of I-45. A couple stronger storms cannot be ruled out either, again especially to the east. After a quieter period this weekend and early next week, we may be in store for more unsettled weather and rain chances late next week and weekend.

Rainfall update

Of note in Texas, there was some truly awful flooding late yesterday and last night in the Rio Grande Valley. Harlingen had nearly 14 inches of rain yesterday with over 10″ falling between 5 and 11 PM last night. It was their wettest day on record, with all but one other top 25 wettest day occurring between May and November prior to yesterday. For McAllen, it was the third wettest day on record. Even Brownsville cracked their top 25 list as well.

Locally, we have not seen that kind of rain. Fulshear and Simonton saw some locally heavy rain, with 1 to 3 inches falling there, extending north into Waller County. And areas southwest of Wharton and around Matagorda Bay saw 1 to 4 inches. Harris County saw rain yesterday, but most areas saw a half-inch or less.

Radar this morning shows some heavier showers in Liberty County but mostly calm conditions elsewhere. As the day drags on, look for additional showers and embedded thunderstorms to crop up. I would not be at all surprised to see some very hefty downpours occur, particularly along or east of I-45 later this afternoon. We are in a marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms, so any storm that we see today could produce some gusty winds or even a brief, isolated tornado, particularly between Winnie and Lake Charles later today. However, I don’t want to discount the Houston area, as we have not exactly had great model performance with geographic placement of storms this week.

Rain totals are a bit tricky to nail down, but I would say, expect around a half-inch in Houston with a few higher amounts possible east of I-45, lesser amounts to the west. To the east, we should see 1 to 3 inches, with even some higher amounts possible in spots. We will keep our stage 1 flood alert in place. Rain rates yesterday were easily near 3 inches an hour in the Valley, and that could be noted here as well.

So, bottom line: Scattered showers and storms today. Especially this afternoon. Locally heavy downpours, especially east of I-45, along with a low-end severe weather risk. Localized street flooding remains a concern in those areas with heavier, more persistent rain.

Saturday

I’m going to spin tomorrow optimistically. I think we’ll start off cloudy, perhaps with some areas of fog. There may even be a few light showers around. But as the day progresses, I suspect we’ll see improvement, with more sunshine, less cloud cover, and high temperatures popping back into the 80s. We should hopefully be able to keep the Houston Open moving along.

Sunday

While the majority of Sunday looks fine in the Houston area, there will be a passing disturbance to our north. As this occurs, it could be enough to set off some thunderstorms, primarily north of I-10 and especially north of Highway 105 across Navasota, Conroe, and Cleveland. South of I-10, storms will be unlikely. The most likely time for a few storms would be in the late afternoon hours, heading into the early evening. Everything quickly clears to our east by mid to late-evening. We’ll warm from the upper-60s into the low-80s.

Early next week

We should get a weak front through here Sunday night or Monday morning that ushers in some notably more comfortable air for a day or so. Thereafter, the onshore machine will pump back warm, humid air off the Gulf and into Texas by Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday. Low temps should remain in the 60s with highs in the 80s most of the time. Daytime highs could push upper-80s by Wednesday.

Later next week

A more unsettled pattern looks to settle in over Texas and more broadly the Plains and Southeast later next week, which could linger through the weekend. I don’t expect a ton of rain here right now, but I do believe our thunderstorm chances will increase. This may be especially true as you get north of Houston and northeast into Louisiana and elsewhere.

That said, it’s too soon to say much more than that. As we noted in our Q&A post the other day, sometimes there is enough signal in the model noise to highlight a forecast risk, and in this case that’s what we have late next week and weekend. Stay tuned!

In brief: Drought continues to expand in Texas, and pollen levels are roofing in Houston with warm, dry weather. There are some rain and storm chances for Sunday night or early Monday and again next week, but those are far from certain. Warmer weather returns and lingers.

We got the drought map update yesterday for the country, and as you can see below, drought is expanding in Texas. While the majority of the Houston area is not there yet officially, it doesn’t take much to tell we need some rain around these parts.

While West Texas and Hill Country are in exceptionally bad drought, we’ve got problems of our own locally, as evidenced by the Pauline Road Fire north of Houston on Wednesday and Thursday. This fire was apparently started as a result of a prescribed burn, and it expanded rapidly due to 20 to 30 mph winds and low humidity, along with increasingly dry ground. The type of fire conditions in Texas that are currently in place have not really been seen since 2011. So, again, we need rain.

The pollen, as Eric noted yesterday is another matter. Our tree pollen count in Houston hit over 9,000 yesterday for the first time since the brutal April of 2022, when we exceeded 12,000 on April 7th. Yesterday, should it be our peak pollen day, will be right around average but the second highest since 2017.

You can see the large jump yesterday in 2025’s data on the chart above. Historically, Houston’s tree pollen will have a handful of big days, then slowly tail off. Notice how 2022, while the worst in the data set also peaked quite late. If history is a guide, the oak pollen levels mostly responsible for this data spike should slowly (emphasis on slowly) subside in the next few weeks. But suffice to say, it will be bad at times over the next couple weeks for those with seasonal allergies. That especially holds true if we don’t get any rain this weekend.

Today and tomorrow

Winds will turn around eventually today and start coming out of the south. This will raise our humidity levels and keep us outside of red flag conditions. After a very cool start this morning, we will warm into the 70s this afternoon. A picture-perfect day.

If you’re headed to the final Friday of the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo to get a listen to Parker McCollum tonight, expect clear skies with a slight breeze on the way in. Temperatures should be around 70 degrees, slipping back into the mid-60s by the time you head back home.

Overnight lows will be about 10 degrees warmer tonight than they were this morning. That warmer start will allow Saturday to pop into the 80s. Look for a mix of sun and clouds with no weather woes.

Sunday

Most of Sunday will be fine. Expect clouds and some sun, along with warm weather. Highs should get into middle 80s on Sunday afternoon. As a disturbance drops southward during the day, we could see one or two thunderstorms pop up across the area very late Sunday afternoon, probably after 3 or 4 PM. Any of those storms could be on the stronger side.

That said, we are not currently in a severe weather risk highlight, just a “general thunderstorm” area. However, this is the type of setup where if one storm can find the right environment it could make some noise. In other words: We’re probably fine on Sunday, but there could be a storm that gets a little noisy.

There could be some strong to severe storms well north of the Houston area that form into a weakening line of thunderstorms Sunday night, arriving in the Houston or perhaps Beaumont areas late Sunday night or early Monday morning. There should not be severe weather along this front, but some lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds are possible as this moves into the area.

Monday

Any showers or storms should push offshore Monday morning, and we’ll be left with gradual clearing. Expect highs to jump back into the upper-70s or low-80s.

Rest of next week

Tuesday looks quiet right now. Wednesday may see another chance at some showers or thunderstorms, but it’s a bit soon to offer up more than just a low chance. We could see more widespread rain chances by Thursday.

In terms of additional fire weather, humidity levels look to stay high enough to avoid much more serious concerns next week. But the rain we see (or don’t see) may play a role in ultimately determining that. Monday or Tuesday will probably have the lowest humidity for the week. Temperatures will likely be a bit above 80 degrees, with morning lows in the 60s.

In brief: Wildfire risk increases across Texas today and tomorrow as a dry, windy storm system impacts the state. After gusty winds and some fire risk locally on Saturday, things settle down for a few days. We discuss drought, heat, and what’s ahead today.

Big, hot, dry Texas

Houston officially hit 90 degrees yesterday for the first time in 2025. This is our earliest first 90 degree day since 1996, when we did it on February 22nd and the 5th earliest first 90 degree day on record. So yes, it’s quite early for this. The date of our first 90 degree day has been slowly moving forward over the years. It used to typically be in early to mid-May through the late 20th century, and now it’s usually in late April.

With the exception of the Matagorda Bay region, most of Greater Houston is not currently in drought this March. However, much of Texas is in drought, with that percentage hovering just above half the state. Areas of extreme and exceptional drought are expanding thanks to a year that has brought most of Texas below average rainfall, in some cases far, far below average.

Lately, we’ve begun seeing Plains storms with minimal moisture in Texas and strong winds. This combination continues to dry out soils across the state, which will lead to more drought and periodic potential dust storms across the state as well. It is also allowing for a ramp up in high wildfire risk days.

While we don’t need to worry much about wildfires in Houston proper right now because of our relative abundance of moisture this year compared to the rest of Texas, it is possible, if not likely that we will continue to see relatively frequent wildfire risk across the state and up into Oklahoma in the weeks ahead.

We can predict that your next question will be “what does this mean for summer?” And the answer is that it’s too soon to connect what we are seeing now with summer, or at least too soon to connect them closely. Could this mean a hotter and drier summer than usual? Maybe. But it’s not anything I’d be going to Vegas and betting on just yet. For the rest of spring, however, this drying and warming trend is a bit troubling for those hoping we could avoid drought expansion. Something to continue watching.

Today

While the wildfire risk is extreme to our west, here in Houston it will be breezy and at least a little humid today. Wildfire risk begins to ramp up as you go into and west of College Station where Red Flag Warnings begin. The risk is highest in Hill Country, the Permian, Caprock, Panhandle, and North Texas into Oklahoma. We should see decreasing clouds today with temperatures popping back into the mid-80s, if not upper-80s in spots.

If you’re headed to see Journey tonight at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo, you’re in luck, as the weather will embrace you with open arms. Temperatures will ease back into and through the 70s, leading to a comfortable exit in the evening. Breezy conditions on Friday afternoon should settle down after sunset. No rain is expected.

Saturday

The cold front gets here around or just after sunrise on Saturday. I don’t want to entirely rule out a passing downpour or thunderstorm, but that currently looks to stay well to our north and east. Any rain or storms would be quick before exiting. We should then open up to sunshine after some lingering clouds. Severe weather risks on Saturday are quite significant to our east in eastern Louisiana and Mississippi, so if you’re returning from the eastern Gulf Coast as spring break ends, just keep that in mind on Saturday afternoon.

Winds will begin gusting around midday Saturday, not too dissimilar to what we saw early last week, with gusts perhaps as high as 40 or 45 mph possible by Saturday afternoon. Those winds will die off after sunset. In addition to the gusty winds, humidity levels will plummet, with dewpoints possibly dropping into the teens. It will be desert-like air with highs around 80 degrees.

Wildfire risk may be a bit higher closer to Houston on Saturday due to the winds and low humidity. While our soil moisture is in better shape than it is to our west, that fire risk is definitely not zero on Saturday afternoon and the aforementioned combination of wind and humidity may lead to a Red Flag Warning perhaps up to I-45. Conditions will improve after sunset.

Sunday and Monday

The rest of the weekend into Monday looks great. There should be ample sunshine and a bit less wind with highs in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.

Rest of next week

Expect a warm up back into the 80s for the middle of next week ahead of a storm system in the Wednesday or Thursday timeframe. This one looks a bit weaker and farther north than this weekend’s system, so while we may turn breezy and have a chance of a shower or storm, the weather from that storm will probably be a little less crazy across Texas and the South. Still, we may need to discuss wildfire risk in parts of Texas next week yet again.