In brief: Today should be the hottest day of the next week or so in Houston, with low 90s possible. Then, as humidity and clouds pick up some, we’ll see warmer mornings and slightly lower daytime highs. Rain chances pick back up on Monday. Plus, a special honor for SCW in today’s post!
Special thank you
Eric and I want to extend a special thank you to the City of Houston and specifically Council Member Abbie Kamin for honoring Space City Weather during yesterday’s City Council meeting with a proclamation recognizing our work. I (Matt) also want to extend a special thank you for a separate recognition on the occasion of my departure from Houston this summer.
Eric, Council Member Abbie Kamin, Matt very grateful on Wednesday!
This remains bittersweet for me personally, but I think I can speak for Eric when I say that we are grateful for the recognition. We’d be remiss not to also recognize Lee Hutchinson who has been critical to making sure the site stays up and running day in and day out, Dwight Silverman who has been an idea factory, mentor, and a big part of helping us manage our app, and Hussain Abbasi who actually built, maintains, and upgrades the Space City Weather app. It takes a village as they say, and that’s a huge part of our village.
We do what we do because we love our community and we love weather. And by some twist of fate, hard work, trust, and you, our readers, Space City Weather has become what it is. And the mission continues. Thank you again for the honor yesterday.
The quick and dirty
As Eric noted yesterday, the weather is very toasty and quiet right now, so there’s not a whole lot to say about the next few days. Expect sun, clouds, highs near 90, and increasing humidity. Today will probably be the hottest day of the next week, with perhaps a 91 or 92 being achieved. Then we shift toward more of an 88 to 90 type day/70-75 type night pattern into the weekend as a few extra clouds show up. We may see some added haze as well.
(NWS Houston)
There is an air quality alert for ozone again today. When you get sunshine like we have ongoing, it tends to lead to a chemical reaction with pollutants near the ground to produce ground ozone. That will be our issue today, so if you have respiratory ailments, take it easy today, especially in the mid-morning and late afternoon.
What’s next?
Our next real rain chance is probably not until Monday, though we can’t entirely rule out a shower on Sunday or Sunday night either. Then we should settle into a more unsettled pattern next week with highs near or below normal (80s) and morning lows near or above normal (70s). Storm chances may peak Wednesday or Thursday but never completely shut off. More on this tomorrow.
In brief: Periods of heavy rain will track through Houston throughout the day today, especially along and north of I-10. Additionally, some strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon across the southern 2/3 of the area. Street flooding is a good bet today. Rain ends this evening with gusty winds overnight. But a stellar weekend awaits.
Today
So far this morning, heavy rainfall has been limited to the northern half of the Houston metro, this after some strong storms overnight brought numerous hail reports from Sugar Land through Missouri City and Pearland.
Notable rain totals of around 1.5 inches or more since yesterday, as of 5 AM. (NOAA)
Areas between Cypress and Spring have seen 2 to 3 inches of rain since yesterday. The area that saw hail also received close to 1.5 inches of rain in many spots. Rain continues to jet along and north of Highway 59/I-69 in and west of Houston this morning and north of I-10 east of Houston. That’s going to be the general pattern for most of the day, where those areas see fairly persistent rainfall.
Severe weather risk
However, as we get into the late morning and afternoon hours, there will likely be at least a couple of more ambitious clusters of thunderstorms that develop south of those areas. This would be primarily along and south of I-10 across the Houston metro all the way down to the coast. Not to say we could not see a couple of these find their way north of the I-10 corridor into Liberty, Waller, or northern Harris County, but the severe weather focus today will be mostly south of there. Again, I-10 is not a magical barrier; it’s just a nice, easy demarcation line that most readers generally know.
As these storms wiggle through, any of them will be capable of producing 40 to 50 mph wind gusts, some large hail, and frequent lightning. As you get closer to, say, Freeport, Lake Jackson, Matagorda Bay, or as far south as Corpus Christi, there is also a little bit of “spin” in the atmosphere that could yield a storm that produces a tornado, so just be aware of that. The entire southern two-thirds of the area is in a marginal risk (level 1/5) primarily due to the hail risk, but also due to the wind and very isolated tornado risk.
The SPC has the southern 2/3 of the area in a marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms today. (NOAA SPC)
Flooding risks
In terms of how much additional rain we see, the entire area away from the coast is under a Flood Watch from the National Weather Service in Houston, a slight risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center, and a Stage 1 Flood Alert here on Space City Weather.
(NWS Houston)
What does that tell you? Street flooding is probably a good bet today. This is a good day to be weather aware if you have errands to run or appointments to tend to. Give yourself extra time to get where you need to go. This will be especially true in the second half of the day as the ground will be saturated, making some street flooding more likely.
How much additional rain should we expect? It will vary, but likely another 1 to 4 inches of rain through the duration of the event where it’s currently raining (as of 5:30 AM). South of those areas should see anywhere from a half-inch to 2 inches of rain depending on exactly how this afternoon’s thunderstorms align. The latest HRRR model’s depiction of additional rainfall through this evening is shown below. Don’t focus on specifics here, but you can see the general pattern of how things should flow.
HRRR model depiction of additional rainfall today. Don’t focus on specific numbers here, but it should be on the order of 1 to 4 inches north and 0.5 to 2 inches south, with locally higher (and perhaps some lower) amounts likely. (Pivotal Weather)
The good news is that rain should be out of here tonight, so expect the rain to end from west to east from about 8 PM through 1 AM or so. Early evening plans will be dicey, but late evening plans may be ok. Just don’t drive through any residual flooded roads!
Eric will have another update on today’s weather situation by the afternoon.
Gusty winds
One last note: As the rain begins to wind down, and the front pushes through with the disturbance kind of wound up, we are going to see non-thunderstorm winds increase. This should be especially true near the coast and in the southern half of the area. Inland wind gusts should be on the order of 20 to 30 mph beginning after 6 PM. Some locally higher gusts are possible. Coastal wind gusts will be more like 35 to 45 mph, and gale warnings are posted for the bays and Gulf.
(NWS Houston)
Winds should be at their gustiest from about midnight through 7 AM Saturday. Then, you’ll see them gradually subside through the day tomorrow.
Weekend
Other than the wind in the morning, tomorrow looks glorious with low humidity, sunshine, and highs in the mid-70s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. Sunday looks just as nice or better with more sun and highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Enjoy the early May, comfortable weekend spring fling!
Next week
Looking ahead, temperatures do warm up a good bit, back close to 90 degrees by the time we get to Tuesday or Wednesday. Believe it or not, another May cold front may be in the cards for later next week. Details forthcoming on that, but additional rain and storm chances may be in the cards around then as well.
In brief: Houston firmly ramps into pre-summer this weekend with several chances at 90 degree highs between Saturday and Tuesday. Lower-end chances for a couple feisty thunderstorms exist today and perhaps around midweek next week before we eye a possible cooldown next weekend.
Pre-summer will be enroute to the Houston area over the next several days. That said, we’ve finally gotten some rain here. In fact, over the last 10 days, most of the area has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rainfall. Soil moisture has not entirely caught up to where it should be for this time of year, but it has improved vastly this month.
A sampling of observed rainfall totals over the last 10 days. (NOAA)
While we heat up, we will also be dodging some rain chances here and there.
Today
The area is highlighted in a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms today, as there will be a very slight chance for a couple pop up storms later this afternoon. The highest chance for a couple storms would be north of I-10 and east of I-45, but with a springtime air mass, some sunshine, and instability, it’s not out of the question that a couple storms pop up outside of that quadrant of the area. Most of us will remain dry though. Highs will be in the mid to locally upper 80s today.
There may also be a couple more organized storms late this evening in Louisiana that drop north to south and could graze locations east of I-45 as well, though probably closer to Lufkin and Beaumont than Houston.
Weekend
The weekend should be mostly dry, but we cannot entirely rule out a pop-up shower or very rogue thunderstorm. Otherwise, it’ll be spring swampy with highs well into the 80s to perhaps near 90 degrees and plentiful humidity. Winds from the south at 10 to 15 mph will be what you get for the MS 150 ride this weekend. Some higher gusts over 20 mph are possible, especially in open area or on hill crests. Good luck to all the participants.
Monday & Tuesday
These should be our hottest days. While most forecast highs are into the low-90s right now, I would not be shocked if recent rains and some model tendency to get overeager lead us to see temperatures closer than 89 to 91 degrees here rather than 92 to 94 degrees. We shall see.
Tuesday’s forecast highs are well into the low-90s right now. (Pivotal Weather)
Other than the slightest of chances of a shower or storm with daytime heating, it looks just plain ole hot and humid. By Tuesday evening there may be a better organized line of storms dropping south from Dallas, but I currently expect it to fizzle out before getting here. Probably not an issue, but we’ll keep watch.
Later next week
Wednesday and Thursday should also be hot days with upper 80s to 90 or so. However, there is a chance of showers or a thunderstorm on those days, a slightly better chance. This may be a precursor to what could be a fairly strong cold front at the end of the week. The front may (should?) allow for us to have another refreshing series of days next weekend.
Temperature anomalies as forecast by the Euro ensemble from Wednesday evening through Saturday morning next week showing a plunge of much cooler air by the weekend into Texas. (Tropical Tidbits)
The signal in modeling is pretty stout, so I’m cautiously favoring a noteworthy cooldown next weekend. More on that Monday.
In brief: Drought conditions have begun to improve across Houston, and that should hopefully continue with more rain expected on Saturday and next week. It will also turn quite a bit cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with early spring type temperatures!
Let’s start with a drought update. The latest report dropped yesterday, and we saw notable improvement across the Houston area, as you’d expect after last weekend.
Most of Harris County is back in D0 (abnormally dry) or D1 (moderate drought) this week, with improvement surrounding Houston as well. (US Drought Monitor)
We should see additional improvement next week, assuming we get the forecast rain tomorrow.
Today
Watch for some patchy fog this morning in spots, but otherwise expect a mix of clouds and sun. We should push up into the mid-80s.
Saturday
Alright, so tomorrow is the tricky forecast day all around. A couple showers are possible in the morning, but we aren’t currently expecting too much in the way of rain through midday. Showers will become a bit more numerous in the afternoon hours across the area. A few thunderstorms are also possible. Here’s a 4 PM forecast radar from the HRRR model just to set the mood a little in terms of what things could look like tomorrow afternoon.
Showers will be scattered around Houston in the afternoon hours on Saturday, with more widespread rain and some thunderstorms to the north and west of the area. (Pivotal Weather)
As the afternoon turns to evening, we should see more frequent periods of showers and rain across the area. The back edge of the rain will be slow to advance through Houston, probably not reaching the coast until Sunday morning. Generally speaking, we should see a quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rainfall across the area. Some isolated spots will get more, and it’s conceivable that a couple spots see less too. Any areas seeing more rain may also see localized street flooding.
For the Ironman Triathlon, Eric covered things in depth yesterday. There’s no real change in expectations in terms of temperatures and rather unpleasant humidity. I am hopeful that most adverse weather will hold off til the evening hours in The Woodlands, but the reality is that we cannot entirely rule out some showers or even a thunderstorm through the afternoon. The race organizers will be plugged in and act accordingly. We wish everyone participating, the best of luck!!
Temperatures, as noted will be kind of humid. At some point in the 4 to 7 PM timeframe, there’s going to be a significant drop in temperatures from the 80s into the 70s and eventually 60s. We may drop all the way into the 50s by Sunday morning.
Sunday
Showers will end through the morning. We may not see complete clearing on Sunday, but I will hold out hope for some sunny breaks. Wind gusts will be up on Sunday, around 20 mph inland and near 30 mph at the coast. It will feel like early spring!
Monday morning low temperatures will be quite refreshing. (Pivotal Weather)
Monday and Tuesday
We will quickly lose that slightly more refreshing air mass and transition back to more typical mid to late spring type weather conditions with onshore flow and a return to a shower or storm chance later Monday and especially Tuesday. Temperatures will remain cool with highs only near 70 Monday and mid-70s Tuesday.
Rest of next week
We warm back into the 80s by Wednesday and Thursday. With that will come additional unsettled weather. Shower or storm chances will persist across the area. However, many spots will remain dry I would assume; the storm chances will be more isolated than scattered or widespread.
