Matt Lanza

For mid-April, it has been really nice here in Houston. The last several days have been just a few degrees below normal, which in April usually isn’t too bad. Those of you craving something more summery may get a chance to celebrate today and tomorrow. So as to not bury the lede, for those of you with parties or weddings or plans on Saturday: The vast majority of the day looks fine. There is a chance for a few showers in the morning. But the best chance for storms will be in the evening and probably highest to the south and east of Houston. More details below.

Today

Sun will give back in to cloud cover this afternoon. Onshore flow will send the humidity upwards through the day today. So it will feel a little hotter than it has most of this week. Highs top off in the low-80s.

Rain chances are not high, but they are not quite zero, with the best chance of a stray shower or two west of the Houston area late today.

Saturday

Starting with the rain and storms chances: First off, the Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal (level 1/5) risk of severe storms tomorrow. So, there is a very minor chance that we could see some strong to severe storms tomorrow evening. Just something to keep in mind if you’ll be outdoors for any evening events. Chances of severe weather are not high, but they are not zero.

So when could it rain? Well, the chance is low (not zero) for the majority of the daylight hours. You’ll most likely be fine. But, a few showers will probably pop up in the morning, especially along or north of I-10, and we could have some pockets of light rain or drizzle elsewhere. The morning may be a bit dreary in spots but probably no reason to call off your plans.

I think Saturday afternoon looks mostly fine at this point. Sure, there’s a chance of a shower, but the vast majority of the area will probably be ok. More on temperatures below.

It’s Saturday evening when the window opens for a better chance at quick hitting storms. Many of you may not see any rain. But the chance is there for the entire area. However, whatever hits Saturday evening will probably be quick (think 30 to 45 minutes mostly). That said, if you have plans for Saturday evening, have a safe spot to retreat to in case lightning comes into play for 45 minutes or so.

As far as temperatures go, after a morning near 70 degrees, we’re going to surge deep into the 80s I think, with a chance for a few 90s in spots, depending on how much sun shows up.

For Saturday evening plans, temps will cool off some, but we probably won’t notice anything really significant until Sunday morning.

Sunday

Humidity will plunge while most of us are asleep Saturday night, and by Sunday morning, it will feel somewhat refreshing outside, with temperatures around 60 or in the upper-50s to start the day. We’ll warm into the 70s with sunshine and a breezy north wind that may gust to 20 or 25 mph at times.

Monday and Tuesday

The week starts off lovely with lots of sunshine and highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s.

Clouds should begin to build in on Tuesday, and there’s at least a chance of showers Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Mid to late next week

Confidence in the forecast details will drop off pretty dramatically after Tuesday. All I can tell you right now is that there is a chance of showers and storms for the mid to late week period. There may be another front in the weekend timeframe but that is not exactly locked in on the modeling. Whether we see just isolated activity or more numerous, scattered, or heavier storms is an open question right now, something we will effort to have an answer on by Monday.

2023 hurricane season

The crew at Colorado State University unveiled their forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season yesterday. It calls for an average to below average season this year, something we haven’t seen in preseason forecasts in several years. That’s great news, however it’s important to note that last year was considered an “average” hurricane season, yet it produced the third costliest hurricane in American history in Florida. 1983 was an extremely below average hurricane season, and it produced Hurricane Alicia here in Houston. We know everyone loves these seasonal outlooks, so we share them willingly, but it’s important to prepare for this hurricane season as you would any other.

One of the main reasons they are anticipating average or below average activity is because of a developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. The last three summers have been neutral or La Niña driven, so the expectation has been for active seasons. The atmosphere will be much different this summer. In fact, if you look under the surface of the Pacific Ocean, you can see how much warm water is building.

You can decipher the image above in the caption, but the takeaway: El Niño is forming and it’s forming fast. That should aid wind shear in the Atlantic basin this hurricane season, which should hopefully cut down on the ability of storms to organize as easily as they have in recent seasons. That said, the Atlantic Ocean is very warm right now too, as is the Gulf.

So under the right conditions, it could be favorable for storm formation. Obviously, it’s April and a lot can change between now and August, so for now let’s just be grateful that the initial call for the season is quieter than normal. This El Niño is also likely to eventually impact our weather here in Texas. There’s no magic wand that tells us when or how that will happen, but we will probably notice some wetter periods across the state, more so than we have the last 2 or 3 years.

Well, we hope everyone got some sleep last night. For parts of the area, it was quite the noisy evening. Here’s the rainfall since yesterday evening:

Rain totals since yesterday evening have been certainly manageable by Houston standards with the main issue being minor street flooding and/or ponding. The heaviest rain fell from near Memorial Park through Alief into Sugar Land, with about 2 inches, give or take. Galveston received around an inch of rain, but it’s also been quite breezy there, with winds gusting as high as 49 mph (before 2 AM). We fortunately missed out on extreme rainfall yesterday and overnight. That hit just south of Lake Charles, where as much as 8 to 10 inches of rain fell.

Today starts the transition out of this wetter pattern, setting up a cloudy but overall fair Easter weekend.

Friday

We think the worst of the rain is over for Houston. However, that doesn’t mean all the rain is over. Expect off and on showers, drizzle, or light rain today across the area. Our higher resolution modeling is trying to fire back up a period of slightly heavier rain and storms later today to the west of Houston. So I would not be shocked to see one more round of perhaps some moderate to heavy rain and thunder later today or this evening.

With all that said, we will discontinue the Stage 1 flood alert. We do think some minor ponding is still possible, especially in areas that have seen a good bit of rain since Wednesday, but for the most part, we should be able to manage what’s left to come without too much trouble. As always, use care with the wet roads.

Outside of rain, today looks cloudy and cool. Temperatures will warm only a bit from where they’re currently sitting (50s from Houston N & W, 60s S & E of Houston).

Saturday & Sunday

We can’t completely rule out rain tomorrow, but at this point it looks like any chances will be mostly in the morning and mostly minor in nature. Expect a good deal of clouds for Saturday, with morning lows in the 50s, warming into the low-70s.

The biggest problem this weekend will be cloud cover. We are going to have a lot of low level moisture “trapped” under an inversion (or “cap”) in the atmosphere. In addition, we’re going to have middle and high level clouds overhead too. On Sunday, we lose those higher clouds, so hopefully the sun will scour out some of the low clouds during the late morning or afternoon.

So, for Easter Sunday, expect morning clouds giving way to some afternoon sunshine. We’ll have morning lows, as seen above, generally in the 50s to low-60s. The afternoon will depend on sunshine, but we will call it mid-70s on average for now. Rain chances won’t be quite zero, but they are low.

Monday & Tuesday

For Monday, we may be able to squeeze out a few showers in the area, but skies will be partly sunny for the most part. Morning lows will be near 60, with highs in the mid-70s once more. Tuesday looks very similar, so we’ll simply copy and paste Monday’s forecast for now, but we may need to downgrade Tuesday a bit when we get closer.

Mid to late next week

The rest of next week looks pretty decent here in Houston. I would suspect we see increasing sunshine and also increasing temperatures, along with slowly increasing humidity. Look for highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s by the end of the week. We may want to watch for slightly higher shower chances Wednesday, but overall it looks fine right now.

One item of curiosity: The Gulf of Mexico may see some shenanigans next week. While we aren’t looking at anything serious, and we are not looking at anything in Texas right now, we may be looking at “a thing.”

Models have been pretty consistent in some type of surface low pressure developing under an upper level low pressure system in the north-central Gulf and slowly working inland between New Orleans and Panama City, FL. It’s not tropical in nature, as other meteorological processes are driving this, but it could bring some rain and modestly gusty winds to parts of the Gulf Coast well east of our area later next week. There has never been a tropical storm that has formed in the Gulf in April that we know of, and frankly, this system is probably too close to the coast to have enough time to pull that transition and feat off. Still, if you are planning a trip to the eastern Gulf Coast next week, keep tabs on the forecast and maybe prepare for some less than desirable beach weather.

We’ve got a mixed bag of spring weather coming our way over the next two or three days, but we should be able to squeeze one pretty nice day out of everything. Top of mind will be today’s chances of thunderstorms. While there is definitely a chance of showers or some storms, we feel pretty confident that the worst of the weather today will stay comfortably north and east of our region.

This morning

No serious issues are expected this morning. There will be a fair bit of low clouds and maybe some sprinkles, light rain, or drizzle around. Beyond that, nothing much.

This afternoon

Our cold front today and tonight won’t be a classic one for us, where it pushes through with storms and we drop 10 degrees as it moves away. Rather, this will come in pieces. The first of those is this afternoon with a weak front or dryline (humidity & wind shift boundary) that pushes through. We think there will be at least a period of showers as that passes, but those may end up being primarily north of I-10. It’s entirely possible that most areas south of I-10 get absolutely nothing meaningful today.

The highest chances of severe weather will be well off to our north and east, primarily into northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi. We think a pretty stout “cap” in the atmosphere will limit our chances. Again, capping just means that there’s a layer of warming temperatures as you go up in the atmosphere which tends to inhibit storm development. Most modeling shows this cap holding through the afternoon. If the cap were to somehow weaken today (very unlikely), storms could fire up pretty quick, especially to the north and east of Houston.

Once that boundary passes and moves to our east, skies should clear out for the evening. It may actually be a lovely evening with lower humidity and warm temperatures. We’ll top off in the 80s in most spots.

Tonight

Fog may briefly develop this evening before the final kick of drier air pushes in. Keep an eye out for that, especially along the coast, where it could linger into the overnight. Otherwise, it will be clear and comfortable with lows in the 50s to low-60s away from the coast.

Saturday

Tomorrow will be the type of day I’d look forward to in early May: Sunny and warm with low humidity most of the day. Expect highs to pop into the mid-80s, about 8 to 10 degrees above normal. Hey, break out the shorts!

Sunday

I think your chance of rain is higher on Sunday than it is most of the next few days. Here’s the deal. We have a warm front coming north from the Gulf. Dewpoints are going to surge 15 to 20 degrees higher on Sunday, which means our comfortable Saturday afternoon air mass is going to be replaced by a Gulf-infused, very humid one on Sunday afternoon. The result? Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Warm fronts are always a bit tricky because they can surprise you on the active side. I don’t want to say that Sunday will be a total washout for anyone, but we may need a follow up post on Sunday morning if it looks worse than expected right now. Prepare for some rain to interfere with your day. As a result of the clouds and higher humidity, high temperatures will peak cooler in the mid-70s after starting in the lower half of the 60s.

Next week

The weather for next week is a little tricky. We don’t really have a dominant pattern in place. We’ll probably see a weak front either late Monday or Tuesday that knocks back temperatures a few degrees. We’ll then warm back up later next week, possibly significantly so. In terms of day to day specifics, there may be a decent chance of showers on either Monday or Tuesday, followed by a couple quieter days, and then more isolated to scattered storm chances before the weekend.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day to those who celebrate. Just a little different out there this morning! Temperatures versus 24 hours are much colder.

We are running 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, and that disparity will probably worsen through the day as temperatures stagnate. It feels more like a Valentine’s Day than a St. Patrick’s Day.

Today

Last night’s line of storms is now long gone, but we are left with showers that will actually tick up in intensity some in the Houston area over the next hour or two.

Look for rain or showers to continue through probably midday across much of the area, and even then it will only gradually shut off. Temperatures will go almost nowhere today, stuck in the 40s, maybe up to low-50s in a few spots later this afternoon. The wind will continue howling at times as well through the day.

Tonight

Cody Johnson takes the stage tonight at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo, and you’ll want to dress warmly! Temperatures will be near 50 degrees on your way in and in the upper 40s on your way out with a continued breeze. Rain should be done with, but it will still be a bit damp.

Low temperatures tonight will bottom out generally in the 40s area-wide. Some light rain showers are possible toward morning.

Saturday & Sunday

Look for another cloud-dominant day tomorrow. Temperatures will probably again struggle into the mid-50s at best. A few passing showers will be around, especially south of Houston. It’s entirely possible that a few areas see some sleet mix in with the rain, though I’m not sure it will be precipitating hard enough for that to happen. For those of you planning outdoor activities, there’s probably a better chance than not that you’ll be mainly dry this weekend, but it will remain breezy and chilly and mostly cloudy.

Morning lows will be chilly on Sunday. We expect 30s and 40s for minimums. A freeze is not a concern in the Houston area, but it’ll certainly feel cold. Look for another day of mostly cloudy skies and low-end shower chances on Sunday, with highs perhaps a little better into the mid or even upper-50s. Either way, be ready for a chilly finale to the Rodeo!

A quick note: If your travels are to or from Big Bend or Guadalupe Mountains National Park this weekend, there is a good chance of some snow out that way. Higher elevations of West Texas may see an inch or two of snowfall from this moisture and cold.

More a curiosity than a travel woe, but certainly impressive for mid-March!

Monday and Tuesday

Look for another day of mid or upper-50s after morning lows in the 30s and 40s on Monday. Monday morning may be the coldest of this stretch with widespread mid to upper-30s. Tuesday will see 40s to low-50s in the morning and upper-60s in the afternoon. Both days will be partly sunny with a low-end chance of showers.

Later next week

We will certainly warm up a lot on Wednesday and Thursday. Look for mid to upper-70s on Wednesday and 80s on Thursday. Both days should see at least some sunshine.

Beyond that, we may see another cold front around next Friday or Saturday to offer some comfortable weather next weekend and early on the week of the 27th. More on that next week.