Matt Lanza

Good Saturday morning to you! You don’t need to be an expert on meteorology to look at the below radar image from 7:45 Saturday morning to know it’s probably going to be raining for awhile.

Rain will be with us all day today. We should see the rain become more intermittent or taper off after sunset tonight, but it may not clear out a ton before Sunday morning.

It’s in the 40s in most places in and around Houston this morning. Temperatures should refrain from budging much today, so expect the chill to remain.

In addition to the rain and the chill, it will be breezy today. Inland areas will experience 15 to 25 mph wind gusts today. Areas along the Gulf or bays may even see some 30 to 40 mph wind gusts. Coastal locations have wind advisories, gale warnings (offshore), and small craft advisories (bays) all posted for today and tonight.

All in all, just a Southeast Texas winter type day today.

Sunday & Monday

Any lingering light rain or showers should taper off before sunrise Sunday. If we are lucky, we’ll be able to sneak in a few hours of sunshine tomorrow before clouds thicken back up. Showers could begin to break out again south and west of Houston by mid-afternoon. Those will overspread the area Sunday night and Monday before tapering off Monday night. Some of this rain could be just a little heavier at times than what we see today. Temperatures will be in the low-50s on Sunday, 40s Sunday night, and probably struggling to get to 50 on Monday.

The farther north of Houston you are, the more likely you end up closer to a half-inch of rain. The farther south of Houston, the closer to an inch or more between today’s rain and Monday’s rain.

Tuesday through Friday

Some good news today: It appears that rain chances may be a little lower on Thursday. They certainly won’t be zero, and it seems likely that we see at least a period of rain at some point Wednesday night through Thursday. But it may be in a narrow window. Here is our updated thinking today:

Tuesday: Clouds, some sun, a shower possible. Morning lows 40s, daytime highs near 60.

Wednesday: Clouds, some sun, a passing shower possible. Morning lows upper-40s to near 50, daytime highs low-60s. (A note that travel conditions on Wednesday look decent across most of Texas and Louisiana)

Thanksgiving Day: Clouds with a period of showers and storms possible. Clearing late. Morning lows 50s, daytime highs upper-60s to near 70 degrees.

Friday: Sunny! Breezy to windy, however. Morning lows 40s, daytime highs around 60 degrees.

Fundraiser

Another thank you to all who have contributed to our annual fundraiser! It continues. You can click here to buy items. And if you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just want make a contribution, click here and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.” We are grateful for your support. Thank you!

An abnormally cool stretch of mid-November weather continues. We’ve already had more sub-60 degree days this week than all of last November and December combined. Of course, given how warm last year was, that isn’t saying much. But still. We have at least a few more days of sub-60 weather before things change somewhat.

Fundraiser

Thank you again to all who have contributed to our annual fundraiser! We are truly grateful, especially in what has been a pretty uneventful year (thank goodness). You can click here to buy items. And if you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just want make a contribution, click here and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.” Your support literally helps keep the site running, so thank you so much!

Today

Look for clouds to thicken up as the day progresses. We should begin to see sprinkles or light showers break out from southwest to northeast across the region. Initially, these may struggle to reach the ground due to dry air, but as we get closer to evening, I suspect we’ll get more reports of light rain or sprinkles. Temperatures should remain mired in the 50s today.

Saturday

Welp. Tomorrow may be a front-runner for most miserable day of the year.

It’s a pretty simple forecast: Periods of rain, steady at times (especially south of Houston). Cloudy. Cold. Breezy. Temperatures will stay stuck in the 40s all day. Look for breezy conditions with winds of 15 to 25 mph at times, stronger over the water or near the coast. Just really raw, cold, and quite nasty for Houston.

Rain totals will average a half-inch to inch and a half south of Highway-105. Some places may see a bit more, especially nearer to the coast. Others to the north may see a bit less. But everyone sees at least some rain tonight and tomorrow.

Rain should taper off from west to east overnight into very early Sunday morning.

Sunday

Despite Saturday’s gloom, I am optimistic that we should break out into at least a little sunshine on Sunday. It still won’t be a wonderful day, but compared to Saturday it will seem glorious. We should manage lower-50s. A few showers could break out late in the day west of Houston.

Monday

As of now, expect mainly cloudy skies on Monday with scattered showers or some rain. We’ll have to see if this trends more toward a wetter period like Saturday has done. For now, we’ll just call it scattered showers and update you this weekend. One thing we are confident it will be? Chilly. Again. Look for low-50s, maybe mid-50s if were lucky or upper-40s if we’re unlucky.

Tuesday and beyond

We continue to struggle with details regarding the Thanksgiving period. What we know is that there will likely be quiet weather on Tuesday with building rain chances Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should gradually sneak back above 60 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday, with morning lows in the 40s early, warming into the 50s and 60s late.

What we don’t know is exactly when it will rain Wednesday through Friday. Our modeling continues to struggle a lot with what may be a pretty significant storm across the Eastern U.S. One school of thought is for a slower moving, stronger storm that would bring thunderstorms and possible severe weather to Texas and Louisiana. That option seems to be fading some. Another slightly more likely possibility is for a quicker moving, weaker system with just a few showers and storms. Here’s the best thinking right now:

Tuesday: Clouds, some sun, a shower possible. Morning lows 40s, daytime highs near 60.

Wednesday: Clouds, some sun, a few showers or sprinkles, especially south and west. Morning lows 50s, daytime highs mid to upper-60s.

Thanksgiving Day: Clouds with a period of showers and storms possible. Morning lows 50s to 60s, daytime highs upper-60s.

Friday: Sun & clouds. Maybe a shower. Morning lows 50s or 40s, daytime highs low-60s.

That’s what we can give you for now. We will keep you posted this weekend with a daily morning update on the forecast both tomorrow and Sunday!

First off this morning, congratulations to NASA and those who have worked so hard on Artemis on a successful launch overnight!

We got the sun back out yesterday after a dreary Monday. We should hold on to at least some sun today, though clouds may at times block it out. The next 8 or 9 days will feature quick moving systems that impact the region every couple days, possibly culminating in a wetter period right around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Those odds have inched up a bit since yesterday. More on that in a second.

Today

We aren’t expecting any adverse weather today, so you can confidently go about your plans without issue. You’ll see both clouds and sun but probably more clouds than sun overall. It will remain chilly with highs only in the mid-50s. A continued breeze at times, especially into tonight, will enhance the chill, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph near the coast.

Thursday

A chilly start to the day won’t get a whole lot better tomorrow. Clouds should dominate early Thursday with more sunshine in the afternoon. A system passing by overhead will bring a non-zero chance for some showers, sprinkles, or light rain, but it would seem most of that should fall well offshore. Highs will be in the mid-50s again.

Friday

As systems continue to move along briskly, Friday should be a mainly quiet day between them. It will be quite cold in the morning.

We’ll warm from the 30s and 40s into the mid-50s. Sunshine should be around in the morning, but it may fade behind increasing clouds through the day. There could be a few showers very late in the day southwest of Houston, toward Matagorda Bay or into portions of Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties.

Saturday

The forecast for Saturday is a bit trickier with a system passing just offshore. This looks like a farther south version of what happened in our area Monday. In other words, most of the heavier rain should stay offshore, but there will be at least scattered showers or periods of rain in the Houston area and points south. Places north of the Brazos Valley or Conroe may see little to no rain on Saturday. That said, trends in recent days have been toward slightly higher rain chances. Rain totals look to be about a quarter-inch or so in Houston, with higher amounts south and lower amounts north. We’ll watch to see if this changes at all.

Expect a good deal of clouds outside of that, with highs in the 50s. A breeze of 15 to 20 mph will be possible, especially near the coast once again.

Sunday

Clouds may linger behind Saturday’s system keeping Sunday cool but dry. Sunshine should gradually break back out though. We should do yet another day of (say it with me again) mid-50s after a morning in the 40s.

Next week

Let’s start with this: Confidence in any specific details for next week’s weather is fairly low. We can speak generally though. Monday looks a bit unsettled with a chance of showers as one disturbance swings through. Tuesday will probably be dry with winds shifting back onshore for the first time in a bit. That will bring clouds and shower chances to the region on Wednesday, especially west of Houston. All that congeals into a storm that drags a front through on Thanksgiving, turning us somewhat cooler for the weekend.

The problem right now is determining exactly how that storm behaves on Wednesday and Thursday, as that will ultimately dictate specifics. Models are split between a very aggressive storm with a chance for strong storms and heavy rain, especially Wednesday night (the European model) and a much less aggressive system with a chance of showers mostly (the GFS model). The European model would have meaningful impacts on travel and events. The GFS model would not. Truth be told, I think our confidence has increased a little in the last 24 hours that at least some portion of the holiday will be wet. Beyond that, we can’t say much else. Stay tuned.

Monday and Tuesday will probably see morning lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s or low-60s. We could push 70 on Wednesday or Thursday with humidity before turning cooler and drier into the Friday and weekend period.

Fundraiser

Our annual fundraiser continues this week. Thank you to all who have helped contribute to keep pushing us along for another year! You’ve still got time to purchase or donate to directly support our work. You can click here to do that. If you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just want make a contribution, click here and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.”

Happy Friday, and happy Veterans Day. Thank you to all those who have served so people like us can yap about weather. One-third of November is in the books now, and it’s the 10th warmest start to a November on record in Houston. The middle-third of the month will not be quite like that. In fact it looks downright chilly at times for next week. The change in seasons begins tonight.

Today

If you have any plans this morning, you should be fine. No real rain is expected, and other than a couple sprinkles on radar this morning, it’s quiet out there. By afternoon, things do begin to change. It will not rain everywhere, but we do expect scattered showers and storms to begin to pop up. Basically, if you have any plans after 2 or 3 PM, you do run the risk of running into showers.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms today, with a slight risk (2/5) toward Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi. Basically, any storms that develop this afternoon and evening could have gusty winds, frequent lightning, and the typical heavy downpours we see. Expect coverage of storms to slowly but steadily increase as we head toward evening. High temperatures should get to about 80 or so.

Tonight

The actual front itself will probably swing through the Houston area between 4 PM and 8 PM tonight (lean toward the earlier end of that range on the west side of town and later end of that range on the east side). Off and on rain showers or downpours with thunder should continue through midnight. It will turn breezy and quite chilly overnight.

Look for lows in the 40s in most spots. With that, a gusty breeze will make it feel even a bit chillier. Be ready tomorrow morning!

Weekend

The weekend days both look fine. Tomorrow will have that somewhat annoying breeze in addition to temperatures in the 50s most of the day. Winds will be 15 to 25 mph. Sunday looks similar but less windy. Expect highs near 60 on Sunday afternoon after another morning of 40s.

Monday and Tuesday

Increasing clouds will build in for Monday with showers or rain likely developing as the day wears on. By evening, I would expect widespread showers or steady rain in most of the area. We’ll try to nudge back into the low-60s on Monday afternoon. Another cold front will push through on the back side of the rain Monday night, knocking us back into the 40s for Tuesday morning. Clouds may stay with us on Tuesday morning before clearing by afternoon, with highs in the 50s and a breeze.

By the time we get to Tuesday, we will hopefully have all seen close to an inch or more of rain between today and Monday.

Rest of next week

The rest of the week will keep us in autumn mode with 50s by day and 40s or even 30s by night in spots. Freezing temperatures may be possible in outlying areas by Thursday or Friday morning. It still seems unlikely within the city, but we’ll see how things trend this weekend. At this point, further rain chances beyond Tuesday seem low.

Fundraiser

Like Eric, I want to extend our appreciation for all those who have either contributed or purchased swag during our annual fundraiser so far! You’ve still got time to purchase or donate to directly support our work. You can click here to do that. If you don’t wish to purchase merchandise and just make a contribution, click an item, click “buy/donate,” and check the box that says “I’d like to make a donation only.” Again, a sincere thank you for your support, and thanks as always for reading!