Matt Lanza

I am writing this at 9 PM, and we’ve had confirmed tornadoes this evening in Round Rock, Jarrell, Elgin, Taylor, and Snook, all to the west of the Houston area.

Thus far in Houston it has been quiet. Some of you are likely prepared to shout “BUST!” at us, but as we’ve been discussing, this was expected to be a nighttime affair in Houston and not everyone is expected to see severe weather. Here’s what we can tell you about the rest of tonight.

First off, a Tornado Watch is in effect for most areas north of Spring and west of Brookshire. The majority of the Houston area is not in any severe weather watch as of 9 PM.

Through Midnight

No issues are expected aside from scattered showers, possibly becoming more numerous on a line from Lake Livingston through Katy. Severe weather is unlikely in Houston before midnight. As I write, there is currently a tornado warning through 9:45 PM northeast of College Station, but there are no other supercells on track for Houston. Good news for sure.

Midnight through 6 AM

This will be when the vast majority of the action occurs around here. Look for showers and some thunderstorms to become more numerous as the overnight hours progress, mainly on the north and west sides of Highway 59/I-69. So folks in Galveston and Lake Jackson will likely see minimal activity through about 3 AM or so. All this will eventually get picked up by a developing squall line that’s currently located in the Austin area, along I-35. That will expand and shift east. Look for this line to progress across the Houston area between about 4 AM and 8 AM. As this occurs, we will be at our highest risk for strong winds, hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. In other words, that will be the time of our highest odds for severe weather.

I do not want to minimize the tornado risk, as there is still going to be a healthy amount shear around, but these types of scenarios typically produce brief, lower-end tornadoes. So we are probably not going to see larger supercells with long-track tornadoes like we saw this afternoon and evening east of Austin. That said, given the potential for severe weather occurring overnight, you absolutely should have a way to be notified of weather warnings, be it using your phone or with a weather radio. Have a way to be notified and woken up should a tornado warning be issued for your area. And even if there aren’t tornadoes, damaging winds and potential for hail warrant your attention too.

In addition, flash flooding remains a possibility, as even non-severe storms will be capable of producing 1 to 2 inches or more an hour. We maintain a Stage 1 flood alert for the area, north of I-10.

After 6 AM

The good news is that once this line punches across the area by 8 AM or so, we’re done. We will see clearing and increasing sunshine with highs in the 70s and lower humidity.

Unless something ridiculous changes, Eric will have our next update for you a bit earlier than usual tomorrow morning. Try to get some sleep if you aren’t working the night shift, and if you are, please stay safe!

The ups and downs we’ve seen in the weather-world lately will continue heading into the next several days. A really nice weekend will give way to thunderstorms and locally heavy rain early next week, followed by more nice weather.

Today

The cold front is pushing through as I write this. There doesn’t appear to be any rain with it, but I suppose if you catch a sprinkle or brief shower through 8 AM or so, I wouldn’t be shocked. However, skies will quickly clear out behind the front, and it will be a mainly sunny day.

You will notice a pretty gusty wind today. It will be a blustery one, with north or northwest winds of 15 mph, gusting as high as 20 to 30 mph, especially along the coast or near the bay. The push of cold air behind this front isn’t especially strong, so we’ll manage to get to 70 degrees today I think without too much trouble.

I did notice that it smells smoky outside this morning, and there are reports of haze around, so this could be smoke coming in on the northwest winds from wildfires in Central Texas. Several fires were occurring yesterday in Eastland County just east of Abilene. Given the gusty winds with the front, it’s probable that some of that got carried south. Whatever the case, don’t be alarmed if you smell smoke outside this morning, but today is an elevated fire weather day again, particularly in interior Texas.

It’s Marshmello night at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo, and you won’t be happier with the weather outlook. It will be cool, with temperatures falling from the mid-60s as you arrive into the upper-50s as you exit. Winds will also drop off some in that time as well. Overall, not bad at all!

Weekend

This weekend looks just spectacular. We’ll lose the wind tomorrow, but we’ll keep the sunshine, low humidity, and cooler temperatures. Since winds lighten up tonight, look for Saturday morning lows in the 40s over most of the area.

But with the sunshine tomorrow, we should easily push into the low to mid-70s.

Sunday looks similar, with a cool start and lows in the 40s, followed by sunshine and warmer weather, with highs well into the 70s, if not near 80 degrees. Humidity will inch up on Sunday, but the bulk of it will not arrive until Monday morning. Sunday’s only real gripe may be the wind, which will pick up some through the day, gusting onshore at around 15 to 20 mph by Sunday afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday

This will be the main period of concern for the forecast, as a number of issues will present themselves. The overarching storyline is that a strong storm system is going to develop over West Texas allowing for severe weather to develop ahead of it and drag a cold front through by Tuesday morning. This should allow for multiple rounds of showers and storms in our area, along with the potential for severe weather and heavy rain.

The Houston area remains included in the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for Monday, with the highest risk north of Houston. It does appear that there will be some “capping” in the atmosphere Monday which muddies the risk a little bit over the Houston metro area. Capping, you’ll recall, tends to inhibit storm development. But there’s a clear trend toward that cap “breaking” north of Houston, which is why the higher probabilities of severe weather are north of Conroe. We probably won’t have a clear view on this until Sunday or even Monday morning. Either way, be prepared for scattered storms on Monday, any of which could be strong to severe, with the highest odds north of I-10.

You’ll also notice strong onshore winds Monday, with gusts of 30 mph possible, as the gradient tightens around the storm passing to our north.

We may get a lull in the action Monday evening before the prefrontal trough pushes through on Tuesday morning. This will likely provide heavy rainfall and the possibility of some severe weather as well. I can tell you right now, if the timing of this continues as steady as it has looked for a few days, there’s a chance many of us will be woken up by thunder in the middle of the night Monday into Tuesday morning. We’ll have the latest for you on this certainly Monday but possibly Sunday as well.

Dry air filters in Tuesday morning, which will allow temperatures to shoot up with sunshine Tuesday afternoon well into the 70s. The cold front itself will lag and not push through til Tuesday evening, likely with little fanfare. But it will allow for blustery north winds and cooler temperatures on Wednesday.

Later next week

As noted, Wednesday will be cooler but sunny, so look for morning lows in the 50s or even some 40s and daytime highs well into the 60s. Thursday should be cool as well, with morning 40s and daytime highs near 70 degrees. It will be less breezy on Thursday, with continued sunshine and low humidity.

Good morning from Dayton, Ohio, as this Rutgers alum heads back to Houston to recover from what was a gutting First Four loss to Notre Dame. Pain. I will be solidly behind both Texas Southern and UH for the men’s tournament this year, so good luck to them and to everyone filling out brackets. So I hope you’ll accept my apologies if today’s post has any typos (or was initially missing a title).

Thursday & Thursday night

Today should start off nice, outside of some low clouds and patchy fog in spots. We will warm well into the 70s this afternoon, with intervals of clouds and sunshine. You’ll also notice a steady south or southeast wind today, gusting to 20 mph or better at times. Rain chances aren’t too high through mid-afternoon. But there will likely be a few minor showers that develop after that time and into the evening. Not everyone will see rain (many actually will not), and the highest odds for anything heavier or steadier are likely east of I-45 this evening.

For those of you heading to see Chris Stapleton tonight at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo, expect at least a few showers around as you head into the show, with temperatures in the lower 70s. It may not be raining at NRG Stadium itself, but there will be at least a smattering of showers nearby. As you exit, there could still be some showers around, possibly even a rumble of thunder. Temperatures won’t have budged much in that time, still likely holding around 70 degrees.

The cold front itself is expected to hit the Brazos Valley after 2 to 3 AM or so, the Houston area before sunrise, and the coast right around sunrise. It should arrive without too much fanfare in terms of storms. There will be a slight increase in winds and a change in direction, as well as a drop off of about 10 to 15 degrees, with lows in the 50s by Friday morning.

Friday

Since the front clears most of the region by daybreak, look for a blustery day Friday with increasing sunshine. This front isn’t especially strong, so we should still manage to find 70 degrees on Friday afternoon. Northwest winds will gust over 20 mph at times.

Weekend

We’re still on track for almost “chamber of commerce” weather this weekend: Sunshine, low humidity, 40s in the morning, 70s in the afternoons, with Sunday being slightly warmer than Saturday. Enjoy!

Monday

It continues to look as if Monday will be a day to watch for thunderstorms and potential severe weather. We continue to be highlighted on the Storm Prediction Center’s day 5 outlook, and they’ve actually increased the odds of severe storms north of Houston (basically for areas north of Hwy 105).

Models seem to be in good agreement today on elevated storm chances in our area Monday. This will come via much warmer, more humid air and a potent storm system passing to our north and dragging a cold front this way. You’ll notice a much warmer morning Monday (lows likely in the 60s instead of the 40s) and temps pushing into the 70s Monday afternoon. It will also be quite breezy on Monday, with southerly winds gusting over 20 to 25 mph at times.

The severe weather threat is murkier but it’s quite clearly in place on Monday. Exactly what that will look like, it’s a bit too early to say. In general, the farther north of I-10 you go, the greater the odds of severe storms, as outlined by the map above. But that does not necessarily mean Houston is off the hook here. Not everyone will see severe weather on Monday. There are still a fair amount of questions, and we’ll tackle this a little more tomorrow.

Later next week

The cold front itself should push through Houston by late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Before that, a trough well out ahead of the front will deliver a second round of storms Tuesday morning, some again possibly strong to severe. I think most of the area will at least see rain from that. We should then clear out Tuesday afternoon. I would not be shocked to see an actually decent day on Tuesday after the storms, depending on the exact timing. We should push back into the 70s and potentially make a run for 80 degrees.

The front itself will not come with much, as the atmosphere should be pretty well worked over by that time. It will set up a very nice middle and end of the week with sunshine expected Wednesday through Friday, along with cooler, mostly pleasant temperatures.

A beautiful Tuesday will give way to a beautiful Wednesday, as we continue to space our fronts apart just enough to enjoy some fair weather in between. There will be another front to come on Friday, followed up by a stronger, more impressive front early next week, which will give us additional opportunities for some needed rainfall in the area.

Today

Not much to say about today’s weather. It will be sunny, pleasant, and calm. Look for light winds, low humidity, and highs well into the 70s and at least a slight chance for 80 in a few spots.

Khalid is Wednesday evening’s performer at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo, and the weather should be lovely. Look for mid-70s on arrival and mid-60s or a bit cooler when you depart. No issues are expected, so enjoy!

Thursday & Friday

Onshore flow will begin developing this evening into tomorrow morning ahead of our next front. Look for a mostly fine Thursday with sun, clouds, a southerly breeze, and a slight chance for some isolated showers or sprinkles by mid-afternoon. The highest odds of windshield wiper type rain may be south and west of Houston on Thursday. Look for highs well into the 70s to near 80 again tomorrow afternoon.

With southerly winds and increasing humidity, we’ll stay mild Thursday night, and lows should not drop much below the mid-60s through midnight. The front approaches overnight and should kick through before sunrise on Friday. It will bring scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms.

The front really is not expected to get its act together until it has passed east of our area, meaning rainfall (as you can see above) should be generally a tenth to a quarter-inch or less. A few spots could see higher amounts though. The timing of the front should allow for rapid clearing on Friday morning leading to a breezy but pleasant Friday afternoon. Look for highs around 70 with a fresh north or northwest breeze, gusting much like yesterday to 20 or 25 mph in most cases.

Weekend

The weekend continues to look great, with mainly sunshine, highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to around 50 degrees. Any weekend plans to close out a spring break week should be just fine.

Next week

We will repeat the front scenario early next week, except this one looks like it’s going to pack some punch. It’s much too early to get into specifics, but we are already outlooked for the potential of severe weather on Monday, something that usually doesn’t happen around here.

As is often the case in spring in southeast Texas, we will probably have to deal with some degree of “capping” in the atmosphere, which may initially limit how much storm coverage we see on Monday. In fact, if you want to really read between the lines, you’ll notice that the SPC map above has the risk area drawn away from the coast. But it’s too soon to say with any certainty if that will be the case. Generally, the higher odds of severe storms on Monday would be as you progress farther north. We’ll almost certainly see storms with the cold front itself on Tuesday, however, and it’s possible those could be strong to severe as well. Either way, it appears we’re in for something, but Monday will be the day to watch more closely initially. We’ll keep you posted as we get closer.

Once the front is through, look for very nice weather to follow once again for Wednesday, Thursday, and even possibly Friday.