The updated drought monitor report was released yesterday, covering us through this past Tuesday, and it had good news for our area as drought conditions have been significantly ameliorated.
Use the slider to see the week over week change in drought conditions in the Houston region. We see much less drought coverage and intensity this week. (NOAA)
We have gone from 74 percent drought coverage a week ago to 35 percent this week. Most of the area is now drought-free. Of course, it’s not completely gone, and with primarily dry weather expected for another week or more, it stands to reason that we could slip back into a worsening drought situation again this autumn. But for now, we’re doing much, much better. The same is true for much of Texas.
Friday & weekend
The next three days are all going to be variations on the same thing: It will be mainly sunny. You probably will not get rain, but there is at least a slight chance each day that someone will. It will be hot but not extremely so. I do think the next few mornings and evening will be moderately pleasant, much like we’ve seen at times over the last week or so, but the middle of each day should be plenty hot, with highs generally 90 or better away from the coast and mid-90s well inland.
Forecast highs on Saturday and Sunday (shown) will be 90 to 95 degrees across the area, so still pretty hot. (Pivotal Weather)
All in all, if you have plans this weekend, you should be in pretty good shape.
Monday through Wednesday
Will it or won’t it? That’s the big question. We have been discussing the chances that a faux fall cold front could push through Sunday night or early next week and provide us with a taste of autumn and somewhat drier air. Models are still roughly 50/50 on whether or not it gets here. This won’t have much moisture or much impact beyond primarily determining whether we see nighttime lows in the 60s over much of the area or continued 70s.
Model forecast lows on Tuesday morning are close but not quite there for this to be considered our first fall front. It will be a close call. (Pivotal Weather)
So for now, look for mainly sunshine Monday through Wednesday with a slight chance of a shower or storm. Daytime highs should be in the 90s and nighttime lows generally still in the 70s, but risk for a morning of 60s in there, mainly north of I-10. We will see where we stand on Monday.
Mid to late next week
Whether or not an actual front gets here is somewhat inconsequential to the rest of the forecast next week. Look for sun, clouds, building warm to hot temps again, and more late summer humidity. Rain chances remain on the low-end of the scale for most of the rest of next week.
Tropics
The good news is that the Gulf continues to be free and clear of any tropical activity over the next week or so. Everything is in the Atlantic.
Hurricane Earl, along with all the other 20 to 30 percent chances of developing over the next 5 days should stay in the Atlantic. (NOAA/NHC)
All the systems worth watching in the Atlantic seem likely to stay there for their life cycles, which is surely good news for us. We’re not to the finish line yet, so I’m not quite ready to exhale, but we’re getting closer. For those that follow me on social media, the H-E-B cocoa granola supply remains full. Fingers crossed it stays that way.
Good Sunday morning. About 60 to 70 percent of the area got a good dose of rainfall yesterday. Some places saw nearly 4 inches of rain on Saturday across Harris County.
Rain totals were highest on Saturday along the coast and north of I-10 from Brookshire through Cypress, Klein, Spring, and Kingwood. (NOAA NSSL)
Back on Friday we mentioned that Sunday’s forecast was a little trickier in that the greater concentration of rain could end up farther south of Houston. Indeed, that’s what will end up happening today. We expect the heaviest rain to be offshore much of today, perhaps building back along the coast some as the day progresses. So, draw a line from Galveston to Angleton to Bay City, and points south of that line have the highest odds of meaningful rain today.
Rainfall on Sunday will be highest offshore and along the coast, though even some coastal communities may end up seeing only a few showers and a good bit of clouds. (Pivotal Weather)
Inland areas won’t be 100 percent dry, but shower coverage may be less than it has been for a few days. Look for highs in the low to mid-80s south and mid to upper-80s north, perhaps near 90 degrees.
Labor Day
A similar pattern is expected for Monday, with the heaviest rain offshore or well south of Houston. Look for a bit more sun, a slight chance of showers, and highs in the mid to upper 80s on average.
The rest of next week looks fairly benign now, with only isolated to scattered rain chances each day.
Tropics
Just a quick update on the tropics today. We have Hurricane Danielle to the north and Tropical Storm Earl to the south in the open Atlantic. Neither are a threat to the Gulf or to land.
While there are two named storms in the Atlantic and an area to monitor, none are a concern for land over the next 5 days or the Gulf at all. (Weathernerds.org)
An area in the eastern Atlantic has about a 20 percent chance of developing over the next 5 days. That is also not a Gulf concern. We see nothing over the next 7 to 10 days that looks to be of concern for the Gulf. Good news!
Eric should be back posting on Tuesday, unless something changes between now and then. Otherwise, enjoy the rest of the holiday weekend!
Well, here we are. As we’ve been discussing all week, a wet Labor Day Weekend is in the cards for the Houston area, as we continue to chip away at our drought and rainfall deficit all across Texas. Yesterday’s Drought Monitor report had mostly good news for Texas, with the most severe drought coverage losing about half its area, as well as improvements across the state too.
The coverage of D3/D4, extreme and exceptional drought was virtually cut in half this week across Texas. For Houston, areas west of the city remain in extreme drought as of Tuesday. (USDA, NOAA)
In our area, the only real coverage of extreme drought is west of Katy as of Tuesday, areas that have seen as much as 2 to 3 inches or so of rain since. Next week’s map should be even less ugly, as we expect multiple rounds of showers and storms across much of the southeastern third of Texas over the next few days.
Today
Much like yesterday, we should see some showers and storms pop up across the area during the afternoon, probably along the Highway 59 corridor after lunch and erratically expanding as the day progresses. Some areas will see nothing today, while others could quickly pick up an inch or two of heavy rain and see some ponding or street flooding. Highs will be near 90 degrees. Showers may linger for a couple hours after sunset before fading away.
Saturday and Sunday
With a weak cool front in our area this weekend and available moisture in the atmosphere running about 150 percent of normal, we have a very good recipe for numerous showers and thunderstorms and potentially heavy rainfall. If you have Saturday morning plans, you may be able to escape with minimal disruption, but after 9 or 10 AM, showers should begin to pop up from Houston and points south and east. The earlier you can accomplish things, the better. Storms will become more numerous in coverage on Saturday afternoon.
The entire region is under a “slight risk” (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall tomorrow. Rain rates of 2 to 3 inches an hour may cause streets to fill up with water rather quickly in parts of town. (Pivotal Weather)
Stick a pin over downtown Houston. Areas south and east of that pin will likely see the most coverage of rain and storms. Coverage should be pretty healthy north and west of there as well, but it may be more scattered or intermittent.
For Sunday, look for a continuation of things. Showers and storms will blossom as the morning progresses and expand across much of the area. Sunday’s forecast is a bit trickier, however, in that the front may sag a bit farther south than Saturday. This could perhaps focus more of the rain farther south of I-10 and along the coast. We’ll update you this weekend on that.
Any storms this weekend will be capable of producing frequent lightning, brief strong wind gusts, and 2 to 3 inches of rain in an hour or a bit more. This will likely lead to occasional areas of street flooding anywhere in the Houston area or along the coast. For now, no flood watch or SCW flood alert is posted, but we will be monitoring things this weekend to see if that needs to change. Bottom line: Assume that if you’re under torrential rain, it will stay there a bit and could flood the streets for a time.
On average expect 1 to 3 inches of rain this weekend across much of the area. Some will see less, others could easily see 4, 5, or even 6 inches of rain, depending on exactly how storms setup. (Pivotal Weather)
We are expecting about 1 to 3 inches of rainfall through Monday morning across the area. Important: On average. Some places will almost certainly see less, while others could easily see 4 to 6 inches of rain or even a bit more, depending on exactly how things setup. At this time, we expect those bullseye areas to be relatively small geographically, but we are not sure exactly where those will occur.
Clouds and showers will keep temperatures down this weekend, and at best we will probably see mid-80s for highs and 70s for lows.
Labor Day
If it does not happen on Sunday, the better support for storms should shift south of Houston on Monday, but I still do think we’ll have some rainy periods to contend with even in the city and north. I wouldn’t postpone outdoor plans, however. We’ll keep you posted this weekend. High temperatures should be mid to upper-80s, with lows in the 70s.
Rest of next week
While no days look to be washouts, we will probably deal with daily showers and storms most of the rest of next week. Temperatures should be fairly steady in the upper-80s to low-90s most days, with humid mornings in the 70s.
Tropics
The good news: We have no concerns in the Atlantic for Texas. Tropical Storm Danielle formed yesterday, and it is destined to become a hurricane later today. Naturally, it’s occurring right where we all expe—oh, way up in the far northern Atlantic Ocean. Okay then. None of the other waves being monitored in the Atlantic by the National Hurricane Center are expected to get into the Gulf.
Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) Danielle and the two tropical waves being watched in the Atlantic are of no concern to Texas or the Gulf. (NOAA/NHC)
The intrigue: A tropical wave designated as “Invest 93E” in the Pacific off the south coast of Mexico is expected to develop into a tropical storm or hurricane in the coming days. It will curve north and toward Baja, and its leftovers should eventually end up over Mexico and either the desert Southwest or perhaps Texas. Obviously it won’t be a hurricane at that point, but we don’t know exactly how that system will impact our rain chances later next week or weekend, if at all. But options ranging from higher rain chances to very low rain chances, or even some scattered strong thunderstorms are on the table.
Invest 93E is located off the south coast of Mexico in the Pacific Ocean. While it won’t be a Gulf threat, we will be watching its future to see if any remnant moisture can arrive in Texas late next week or weekend. (Weathernerds.org)
We probably won’t get much visibility on this until early next week. We’ll keep you posted.
Meanwhile, today has the potential to be a bit of a slog in spots due to rainfall. I think most areas will see at least some rainfall today, and some of it could be quite heavy, leading to pockets of street flooding. We are holding back on a flood scale upgrade to Stage 1 right now, but there will probably be a few neighborhoods that see a little water on the streets for a time today.
Today
Showers and storms are already marching inland past I-10 as of 6:45 this morning. Coverage should continue to expand northward through the day, and again, we do feel that much of the area will see at least some rainfall today. Areas south and east of downtown Houston will have the highest odds of heavier rainfall, and this would probably include the Beaumont and Port Arthur areas as well.
Areas north and west of Houston will average less than an inch of rain today (though some could see isolated higher amounts), while areas south and east of Houston will average around an inch or two, with higher amounts possible. (Pivotal Weather)
Look for an average of around a half-inch area wide today, with a bit less north and west and a bit more south and east. Isolated areas that see repeating rainfall could easily see 3 or 4 inches or a bit more today, again most likely south and east of Houston. Street flooding is the main concern, and while we are not issuing a Stage 1 alert, just be mindful of that potential in spots today. We will monitor the rainfall situation and update or escalate as needed today.
The Houston area and points south and east are in a slight (level 2/4) risk for excessive rainfall today, which could lead to localized flash flooding. (Pivotal Weather)
Clouds and showers will likely keep temperatures held way back today with 80s for most and some low-90s well inland and toward College Station.
Tuesday
The pattern remains quite favorable for locally heavy rainfall tomorrow too. Look for scattered to numerous showers and storms throughout the day. By their nature, not everyone will see rain again tomorrow, but those that do may see some pretty healthy rainfall. More on this Tuesday morning.
Rest of the week
Things do look to calm down a bit Wednesday through Friday, as we revert to more of a typical pattern of daily showers and storms associated with the sea breeze and daytime heating. Some of the rain will be heavy, but the most common areas to see heavier rain will be south and east of Houston. Daytime highs will be near average to perhaps a tick cooler than average, with upper-80s to near 90 degrees and lows in the 70s.
Labor Day weekend
At this point, we expect more of the same. The good news is that the models that had been aggressive in developing a tropical system near the Yucatan late this week and weekend have backed off a bit in the last 24 hours. This means there should almost certainly be no impact on Texas’s Labor Day weekend outlook from that, just scattered showers and storms each day, with highs within a degree or two of 90 degrees.
Rest of the tropics
The rest of the tropics continue looking active today. There are four areas to monitor on the National Hurricane Center’s five day outlook.
While the tropical Atlantic is picking up in action, none of these four areas that are being monitored look particularly concerning for the Gulf. (NOAA)
The good news for us? As noted in yesterday’s tropics outlook, none of these areas is of particular concern for Texas or the Gulf Coast. We’ll continue to monitor, particularly the one that may develop near the Lesser Antilles, but at this time, there is nothing in any model guidance that concerns us for the next week or more.
