Matt Lanza

If the National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 days for Bush Airport comes to fruition, it will be the second warmest 7-day period of weather during the winter months (December-February) on record for the city of Houston, exceeded only by a stretch in late February 1996. The forecast 74° average temperature over the next week would beat the previous December 24-30 record from 2016 by four full degrees. Basically, we’re heading into unprecedented territory for late December. The 5 day temperature anomaly forecast for the US and Canada is quite extreme. As warm as it is here is almost as cold as it’s going to be in, say, Calgary or Edmonton.

So, the forecast for Houston is pretty straightforward: Warm.

Today

You should be clear if you’re traveling anywhere today. Look for a mix of sun and clouds. It will be noticeably breezy today, with a steady south wind around 10 to 15 mph, a bit stronger over the water. Today’s record highs for Bush and Hobby are both 82°, set in different years (1955 and 1948 respectively). We’ll at least make an attempt to get there.

Christmas Day

I’m guessing Santa may tell his reindeer to come back to the Houston area when they wrap up their work on Christmas Eve, because tomorrow’s weather would warm the heart of anyone living at the North Pole. Look for more of the same: Sun, some clouds, a breeze, and temps warming from the 60s into the 80s. Santa can park himself somewhere on the Island and down a taco and margarita, or two.

The number to beat in Galveston is 76, and 83 is the record in Houston at both Hobby and Bush tomorrow. I think Galveston’s record will fall. Houston will be close, but given how this month has played out, I think we’ll have our warmest Christmas on record. We’ll see.

Sunday & Monday

See above. Maybe Santa can extend his stay. Hit up Kemah? The Texans are home this weekend. Maybe the roof will be open, though it might be too warm for that.

Rest of next week

So, let’s get serious for a second: When is the next cold front? Model support for one doesn’t real increase until next weekend as it stands right now. So for those of you who actually like colder season weather, I sincerely apologize. For those of you that love this, it’s your time to shine. Look for more 60s by night and 80s by day through Friday, possibly Saturday as well. Shower chances creep back in, but the models are quite unenthused about how much rain may occur through next Thursday or Friday.

Low clouds and fog should also return next week. But through Friday, I see nothing too noteworthy in terms of weather impacts outside of occasional fog and warm temperatures.

We’ll have more on Monday. Meanwhile, I’ll echo Eric’s sentiments from yesterday. I hope you have a wonderful, safe, and most importantly, healthy Christmas and holiday season. We are, as always, grateful and thankful for your support. Stay cool this weekend.

Good Saturday morning to you. We’re giving you a bonus weekend post to just give you a head’s up about today’s storms possibly packing a little more punch than expected.

Houston set another record high yesterday at 82° at both IAH and Hobby (tied). The atmosphere over Southeast Texas has atmospheric moisture available that is more typical for August or September than December, particularly south of I-10. When you combine that with wintertime meteorological dynamics and a cold front, you can produce some heavy rain and strong storms.

As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has nudged up our storm risk today to “slight,” which is level 2 of 5 on their scale.

As of 8 AM, the main line of storms associated with the cold front is just approaching the Bryan-College Station area. However, there are showers “front running” the main line. Some of those could strengthen as we warm up a couple degrees this morning.

So, for today expect scattered showers and storms to develop in the Greater Houston area between now and 11 AM. Any storms that develop do have the ability to become strong to severe. The main threat from storms today will be strong, gusty winds. Hail is possible south of Houston as well, closer to Matagorda Bay. The tornado threat today appears fairly low, but you can never entirely rule one out in these scenarios. Expect the main rain event to move in around midday, pushing south and east through the afternoon. Conditions should improve after 1 to 3 PM as most of this pushes offshore or into Louisiana.

In addition to the chance of some severe weather, these storms will be capable of producing very heavy rain for a short time. We should see 1 to 2 inches on average, though that may vary a good bit from place to place, with some seeing a bit under an inch perhaps. Regardless, some localized street flooding and areas of ponding are likely today.

Bottom line: Have a way to receive weather warnings today, just to be safe. Storms could be strong to severe, particularly from 10 AM to 2 PM. Heavy rain is likely in spots, and some localized street flooding can’t be ruled out.

The rest of the forecast from Friday is mostly unchanged. We just wanted to re-emphasize the storm risk today. Stay safe, and try to enjoy the day.

Let’s start today’s post with some numbers as of yesterday, the 16th of December.

68.4°: The average temperature for December so far in Houston, a record for the warmest first 16 days of the month.
11: The number of 80° days recorded at Hobby Airport so far this December. (tying a record; it should be broken today)
9: The number of 80° days recorded at Bush Airport so far this December. (the record should be tied today)
5: The number of record warm low temperatures set or tied in Galveston this month.

Yes, it has been the warmest start to December on record in Houston. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will finish as the warmest December in our recorded history, but clearly this is an abnormal month. If you’ve had enough, you’ll get a chance to enjoy cooler weather beginning tomorrow. If you want more of this, there is a non-zero chance you’ll have an opportunity for that again in about a week.

Today

We have some dense fog across parts of the area this morning, particularly near the bays and Gulf and in the outskirts of the suburbs. Look for clearing this morning, and that will likely lead to one more day of low to mid-80s across the area with very high humidity.

Records today are 81° at Bush, 82° at Hobby, and 77° at Galveston. All three seem likely to be tied or fall.

Saturday

For those of you planning something outdoors on Saturday, the news is not great. Rain should develop in the morning, possibly heavy at times and accompanied by thunder. Rain will likely shut off from northwest to southeast through the early to mid-afternoon. We may manage a dry stretch after 3 PM. This will be especially true north and west of Houston. How much rain are we expecting?

We should see on the order of a half-inch to an inch of rain across the area, welcome moisture for an area slowly trying to nudge into drought. Some areas will see more than that, however. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out either, particularly from Houston south and east.

The front should get through the northwest suburbs of Houston by mid to late morning, the central part of the area by midday and the coast by early afternoon. Temperatures will drop from the 70s into the 60s, if not the 50s as the front passes, and they’ll stay there or slowly drop off a few more degrees through the day. In addition to cooler temperatures, a brisk north wind gusting to 20 mph or so will add some chill to the air.

Sunday

We’ll likely see a mix of clouds and sun on Sunday with temperatures warming from the 40s into the 50s, maybe upper 50s to near 60 with enough sunshine. It will remain at least a little breezy on Sunday.

Monday

A weak system will pass to our south Monday morning, perhaps passing close enough to deliver a few showers or even a rumble of thunder to the area before skies clear out late. The best chance for showers will be the closer you get to the coast. Look for morning lows again in the 40s with highs likely only at best in the mid-50s, possibly even a bit cooler.

Tuesday through Thursday

Look for very nice weather for the middle of next week. Both Tuesday and Wednesday should be partly to mostly sunny. High temperatures should be in the 60s after morning lows in the 40s. Tuesday morning could even see some 30s in spots. Onshore flow should begin to kick back in on Thursday, but we’ll likely see a mix of sun and clouds and lower 70s with morning lows in the upper-40s and 50s. If you’re looking for some optimal holiday-ish weather for Galaxy Lights, Zoo Lights, Lightscape at the Houston Botanic Garden, or just walking around the neighborhood, you’ll have it here.

Christmas Eve & Christmas Day

Based on the best available modeling to us today, we have a cold front that will at least flirt with us on Christmas. There remains a very wide spread in possible outcomes. If you compare just the Euro and GFS operational models this morning, you get about a 15 degree spread in temperature outcomes for Christmas morning.

Ensemble models don’t offer much clarity, with about 60% of the European ensemble members pushing a front through by Christmas and maybe 5% of GFS ensemble members. So, it will either be pleasantly cool (close to normal) or warm & muggy. One thing we can say with some confidence: It will probably not be truly cold this Christmas.

Eric and I will keep you posted next week.

On December 3, 1933 Hobby Airport reached 85°, making it the warmest December day on record, a record that held for 88 years and finally fell yesterday when Hobby topped off at 87°. The City of Houston officially hit 84° on that December 1933 day, a record that stood until December 3, 1995, when Bush Airport hit 85°. Yesterday, for the first time since that 1995 day, Bush Airport hit 85° in December. Yesterday was most likely the warmest December afternoon on record in the Houston area. It’s not impossible to think today could be equally hot.

Today

After watching my Rutgers Scarlet Knights men’s basketball team upend #1 Purdue last night, it was tough to come down from that high. Then I opened the door this morning. We all have opinions about warm weather in winter ranging from “This is amazing” to “I hate everything.” I don’t personally care for it, but alas, here we are. Today will be another scorcher by December standards. We will have a mix of clouds & sun with highs likely in the mid-80s.

Coastal fog has been mitigated some by a breeze overnight. We could see fog attempt to develop in Galveston and coastal locations at any point today though, particularly if winds lighten up some late. A stray shower or some drizzle is also possible today.

Tonight & Saturday

For those sick of the hotter weather, you may bask in the weekend. We will continue quite warm and humid tonight. Temperatures will not go very far, with steady readings in the 70s likely into the early morning hours. The cold front will arrive with authority after 4 A.M. on Saturday in central Houston, an hour or two sooner northwest of the city and an hour or two later southeast. By sunrise, the front will be offshore. Look for temperatures to plunge from the mid-70s into the 50s, where they likely will stay for most of Saturday.

In addition to a change of seasons, this front will come with some showers and storms. Look for a narrow but potentially noisy line of brief storms after 2 or 3 AM on Saturday, ending around sunrise. This will be followed by clouds, along with some light rain or a few showers perhaps. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph will accompany all this, just to add to the autumnal ambiance. I don’t expect us to see much sunshine on Saturday until perhaps late in the day.

Sunday

As skies clear out late Saturday evening and winds back down some, temperatures will fall as well. Look for Sunday morning to begin in the low to mid-40s in most places, with some 30s likely outside the city. Sunday itself looks gorgeous. Expect sunshine and highs a bit above 60 degrees.

Next week

The return to autumn or early winter weather will be brief. We warm up a little beginning Monday, with morning lows in the upper-40s and daytime highs in the low-70s under sunshine. Monday actually looks spectacular, although clouds may increase through the afternoon.

By Tuesday, onshore flow will begin to exert more influence. This will warm us and bump back up the humidity. Look for highs well into the 70s and lows in the 60s. More of this on Wednesday and Thursday is expected. Yes, we could hit 80 degrees again one or multiple times into late next week. In addition to all this, the usual suspects that typically accompany these December warm ups (clouds, scattered showers, and fog) will join us again as well.

When will we see another cold front? As of this morning, the Euro has one around Sunday next weekend, while the GFS is more like the Monday or Tuesday the week of Christmas. Keep the shorts handy a little longer.