Matt Lanza

On December 3, 1933 Hobby Airport reached 85°, making it the warmest December day on record, a record that held for 88 years and finally fell yesterday when Hobby topped off at 87°. The City of Houston officially hit 84° on that December 1933 day, a record that stood until December 3, 1995, when Bush Airport hit 85°. Yesterday, for the first time since that 1995 day, Bush Airport hit 85° in December. Yesterday was most likely the warmest December afternoon on record in the Houston area. It’s not impossible to think today could be equally hot.

Today

After watching my Rutgers Scarlet Knights men’s basketball team upend #1 Purdue last night, it was tough to come down from that high. Then I opened the door this morning. We all have opinions about warm weather in winter ranging from “This is amazing” to “I hate everything.” I don’t personally care for it, but alas, here we are. Today will be another scorcher by December standards. We will have a mix of clouds & sun with highs likely in the mid-80s.

Coastal fog has been mitigated some by a breeze overnight. We could see fog attempt to develop in Galveston and coastal locations at any point today though, particularly if winds lighten up some late. A stray shower or some drizzle is also possible today.

Tonight & Saturday

For those sick of the hotter weather, you may bask in the weekend. We will continue quite warm and humid tonight. Temperatures will not go very far, with steady readings in the 70s likely into the early morning hours. The cold front will arrive with authority after 4 A.M. on Saturday in central Houston, an hour or two sooner northwest of the city and an hour or two later southeast. By sunrise, the front will be offshore. Look for temperatures to plunge from the mid-70s into the 50s, where they likely will stay for most of Saturday.

In addition to a change of seasons, this front will come with some showers and storms. Look for a narrow but potentially noisy line of brief storms after 2 or 3 AM on Saturday, ending around sunrise. This will be followed by clouds, along with some light rain or a few showers perhaps. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph will accompany all this, just to add to the autumnal ambiance. I don’t expect us to see much sunshine on Saturday until perhaps late in the day.

Sunday

As skies clear out late Saturday evening and winds back down some, temperatures will fall as well. Look for Sunday morning to begin in the low to mid-40s in most places, with some 30s likely outside the city. Sunday itself looks gorgeous. Expect sunshine and highs a bit above 60 degrees.

Next week

The return to autumn or early winter weather will be brief. We warm up a little beginning Monday, with morning lows in the upper-40s and daytime highs in the low-70s under sunshine. Monday actually looks spectacular, although clouds may increase through the afternoon.

By Tuesday, onshore flow will begin to exert more influence. This will warm us and bump back up the humidity. Look for highs well into the 70s and lows in the 60s. More of this on Wednesday and Thursday is expected. Yes, we could hit 80 degrees again one or multiple times into late next week. In addition to all this, the usual suspects that typically accompany these December warm ups (clouds, scattered showers, and fog) will join us again as well.

When will we see another cold front? As of this morning, the Euro has one around Sunday next weekend, while the GFS is more like the Monday or Tuesday the week of Christmas. Keep the shorts handy a little longer.

Hobby Airport has started December with back to back 80 degree days, and there could be more to come. The last time we did back to back 80s in December was in 2019. We also accomplished the feat in 2016, 2015, 2013, and 2012, so it’s not super abnormal. Whatever the case, this is quite a departure from when I last wrote in this space a week ago and we had multiple European model ensemble members depicting 30s for lows in Houston this weekend. You can forget that. Let’s talk about what we can expect.

Today

Look for more fog this morning that should again lift by mid-morning in most spots. Dense Fog Advisories are posted around the region, but the fog is a bit spotty. It appears Brazoria County has some dense, as may parts of Montgomery County. The Beaumont/Port Arthur area is also seeing dense fog. Everyone else seems to be fine or seeing lighter fog. But you may run into some patches of dense fog as you maneuver around the area this morning.

Once the fog lifts, we will be left with a mix of clouds and sun this afternoon, as highs again make a run for 80 degrees. One of the differences between yesterday and today is that we could see a couple sprinkles or showers as a weak disturbance passes by. It may be enough to wet the ground in a few spots, but that’s about all.

Weekend

Saturday will see any morning fog lift once again, leading to a partly to mostly sunny day. A few showers can’t be ruled out Saturday afternoon, but those would be the exception, not the rule. Look for highs in the upper-70s to around 80 degrees after a warm morning in the mid-60s.

Look for mostly the same on Sunday, except it may be more like partly to mostly cloudy. Again, a slight chance of showers will exist, but nothing you need to change plans for I don’t think. Another morning in the mid-60s or warmer will transition to an afternoon in the upper-70s to 80 degrees or so.

Monday

Here’s where some intrigue begins. A cold front should actually press through the region early in the day. We will probably start the day well into the 60s in most spots, and then when the front passes through we will see temps hold or drop a bit. So 80 degrees probably isn’t in the cards for Monday.

Instead, expect a period of morning showers and storms, then cooler, breezy weather in the afternoon. Temperatures should drop into the 50s on Monday night.

Tuesday and beyond

Offshore winds are going to flip around and become onshore winds quickly late Monday night and Tuesday, leading to a substantial increase in moisture. Beyond that, we could be entering a bit of an active period of weather with showers, storms, and even some strong storms in the area ahead of another cold front. This would be most likely later Tuesday or Wednesday. Cooler air would settle in late next week but probably again for only a couple days. By next Saturday, the GFS Ensemble mean already has an over 90% chance that temperature anomalies will be at least 10 degrees warmer than normal.

This means that of the 30+ GFS ensemble members, almost all of them see much above normal temperatures again next weekend.

The Arctic Oscillation

I’m going to take you more under the hood about things right now. Meteorologists use numerous tools to make forecasts. One of those tools is called “teleconnections.” We don’t often talk about those here in an effort not to bore you, but I think it’s instructive today and can explain some of why December looks to be so much different than how autumn has been for the last month or so.

Teleconnections are ways of explaining that because one thing happened in one place, there’s more predictability that something else could happen in another place. In other words, if you have a certain pattern over Alaska, that can often teleconnect to a certain pattern downstream over the continental United States. There are numerous teleconnections we can use, but one of the most useful ones is called the “Arctic Oscillation,” or AO. You can read more about the AO here if you’d like. The simplest explanation? As the AO trends more positive, this indicates a stronger polar vortex, one that’s more likely to stay near the North Pole where it belongs. We typically lean milder in those scenarios with most cold remaining in the high latitudes. If the AO flips significantly negative it can mean the polar vortex has weakened and is more likely to allow chunks of cold to travel south toward the mid-latitudes where more people live. For example, just ahead of the massive February freeze last winter, the AO got as low as -5, which was one of the most negative values of this index recorded since 1950. That did not cause us to get super cold here in Texas, but you bet it helped explain why.

So, why am I telling you about this? Well, if you look at a forecast of the AO Index for the next 2 weeks, what stands out?

It’s raging positive (green line). We are frequently forecast to be at or above +2, with some ensemble members getting as strong as +4 to +5 at times. While this doesn’t guarantee that we’re going to stay warm deep into December, it sure skews the odds that way. No single teleconnection is a magic bullet in meteorology, but they serve as pieces to a larger, complex puzzle we try to solve each day. Today, this one stands out as one that will have an outsized influence on our December weather, so I thought it would be a good time to explain this to you. Hopefully it’s insightful! Enjoy the weekend.

Alright, this weekend won’t be that bad, but you will notice a lot of high clouds streaming across throughout the day today, rain developing tomorrow, and lingering clouds on Sunday.

First, some quick housekeeping. Our annual site fundraiser is in the final days! We are so incredibly grateful for everyone’s support. Thank you so much.

I hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving. Yesterday’s rain was a bit weird in that it was widespread, but some areas saw quite a bit and others saw mostly minor amounts.

Places like Mont Belvieu saw nearly 3 inches of rain. The Woodlands got 1 to 2 inches of rain. Sugar Land saw nearly an inch. Downtown Houston and most of western Harris County? About a quarter-inch. Same story for most of Galveston County and the Island. At least we salvaged the latter part of the day in most places.

Today

With all of Thanksgiving’s mess cleared out, we transition today to fair weather. Expect sun filtered through periods of high cloudiness today. Temperatures are starting the day in the 40s for most with a few pockets of 30s here and there.

With the clouds around, we will likely stay in the 50s in most spots today for high temperatures.

Saturday

Clouds will thicken up some tonight. This should prevent temperatures from falling quite so far, and we should expect generally 40s to low-50s on Saturday morning. A disturbance will be approaching from the west through the morning and afternoon, and it will allow rain to begin to break out from west to east through the day. This will be a mostly light to moderate rain, though perhaps it will be briefly heavy at times south of I-10. Temperatures will warm until the rain starts, and then they’ll drop a few degrees. Look for mostly 50s, and areas west of Houston could fall back into the 40s by late afternoon. Rain will end from west to east on Saturday night.

Rain totals should be a quarter to three-quarters of an inch for most, with a few higher amounts possible.

Sunday

Look for clouds to linger, but the rain should be done. Some sun is possible, which would allow us to crack 60 degrees in many spots after beginning the day in the upper-40s to low-50s.

Next week

The week should start off lovely with sunshine on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Temperatures will add a few degrees each day, and we should see 70s by Wednesday. The late part of next week could even see temperatures approach 80 degrees depending on the timing of our next cold front. There are hints in the models today that we could briefly see some pretty chilly air next weekend with 30s for lows possible over a wide area. Not a major freeze or anything like that, but chilly! We’ll watch that next week to see how it evolves. Enjoy the weekend!

Though this weekend will be a little more mixed than the previous three, it will likely go into the record books as a win when all is said and done. Our roller coaster of cold fronts will continue into next week, with Thanksgiving still a little uncertain. More on that below.

Today & Saturday

Chilly temperatures are back this morning as the drier, cooler air settles in overhead.

Look for a lovely day today with sunshine and highs in the 60s. Tomorrow will begin a couple degrees milder than today, but still cool with 40s and 50s for most folks. Sunshine will dominate the day, with temperatures bouncing back into the lower 70s across the area.

Sunday

Our winds shift back onshore Sunday out ahead of the next front. We’ll see humidity increase a bit, along with clouds and temperatures. We should manage to see 50s and 60s in the morning warming well into the 70s in the afternoon. Some 80 degree weather is possible Sunday with enough sunshine. It won’t be oppressively humid by any means, but you’ll certainly notice the difference from Saturday.

The cold front itself will likely pass the region late in the afternoon or evening. Much like yesterday’s front, it does look to lack a little punch, so any showers or storms would likely be isolated at worst. Still, if you have some late afternoon outdoor plans on Sunday just be aware that it could rain for a brief time.

Monday & Tuesday

Behind Sunday’s front, we’ll get to experience much of the same weather we’ve had behind other fronts this month: Look for sunshine on Monday and Tuesday. The air mass behind this front looks just a little colder than the current one, so I would expect more low to mid-40s in the area, with a few 30s peppered in for outlying, rural spots or the usual chilly spots like Conroe, particularly on Tuesday morning. Daytime highs will be stuck in the 60s.

Wednesday

For those traveling Wednesday, there should be no serious issues across Texas or Louisiana. For those flying out Wednesday, the only real issues might be in the Northeast, as gusty winds linger behind a coastal storm up that way. So Boston, NYC, and Philly might see some delays. But the weather will be clearing out up there on Wednesday. A weak system in the Rockies may produce some generally light higher elevation snow.

For Houston, it looks fine with more sun, a few more clouds and warmer weather. Highs will be in the 70s after morning lows in the 50s.

Thanksgiving Day & Friday

The weather picture gets more interesting on Thanksgiving and Friday. It’s still early to have high confidence in any specifics, but as of right now I think the first half of Thanksgiving will be fine. So if you’re gearing up for the Turkey Trot, the weather itself should be fine. For now. It will be a bit warm and muggy though with temperatures in the 60s and building humidity.

From there, the picture muddies. A relatively strong storm is expected to develop in Texas and push a cold front through either Thursday night or Friday morning. It’s far too early to get too cute with details, but this does have the potential to produce some strong storms, locally heavy rain, gusty winds, followed by much cooler weather into next weekend. No freezes or anything like that, but noticeably colder. We should get more clarity on this by Monday. But for those of you traveling across Texas on Thursday, be aware that this may factor into your plans.

Fundraiser

I just want to echo Eric’s sentiment in thanking you all for your support during our annual fundraiser. You have two weeks left to get your order in for shirts, hats, umbrellas, or tumblers, or just make a contribution to the site! We can’t thank you enough.