In brief: August will continue to August in Houston, with hot weather, hazy skies, high humidity, and at least some low-end shower chances. We will continue to see the heat persist into next week, but that will also hopefully shield us from any tropical troubles.
Today
More of the same continues today, but this time we may add a slightly better chance of a few showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. The setup is a bit complicated, but we have a couple boundaries headed our way, and this coupled with daytime heating and the inland moving sea breeze off the Gulf could help at least fire up a few thunderstorms around the area. Otherwise, it’ll be another scorcher with highs near 100, heat advisories, and air quality alerts for high ozone.
Weekend
More of the same. There will continue to at least be subtle rain chances this weekend, but consider yourself lucky if you get a downpour. Highs will be in the upper-90s, with more borderline heat advisory criteria. I guess that’s a little cooler? I don’t know. Cooler or not, it’s still going to be hot.
Next week
We’ll keep this simple today: There may be some subtle nuance day to day in terms of exact temperature or exact shower chances, but the majority of next week looks stable and hot. High pressure is in control (more below), and that means sun, highs near 100, and heat index values pushing heat advisory criteria daily.
Temperatures will likely be in the lower edge of “extreme” next week, with only subtle day to day variability. (Weather Bell)
While we cannot entirely rule rain out of the forecast next week, daily chances really look meager right now. This is as reminiscent of last summer as we’ve seen so far this year.
Rain totals over the next 7 days are…well, they’re not going to add up to much. (Pivotal Weather)
The reason for all this is that high pressure in the upper atmosphere, something that’s been relatively absent this summer over Texas is finally locking into place. We usually see this at times during summer leading to more concentrated “heat wave” type periods. Well, it’s coinciding with August and our worst heat this year it seems. As long as this stays in place, which it looks to do for the most part over the next 10-12 days at least, we will continue with a pretty stable forecast. If you look at the map below, just notice the “594” circle over Texas. That’s a pretty strong sign of good heat and mainly dry weather in Texas in August.
High pressure looks dialed in over Texas for the next 10 to 12 days without much relent. (Tropical Tidbits)
The upshot of all this is that it would likely keep us protected from any tropical nonsense, so long as it stays in place. We’ll see if that’s the case. Check The Eyewall later this morning for the latest on the next Atlantic wave, which we currently believe will stay east of the Gulf.
In brief: Rain has been manageable so far today. We expect more rain this evening, with scattered heavy downpours. Another round of potentially heavier rain is possible on Thursday morning. We’ll maintain our flood alerts as is for now.
Rain has been mostly under control since this morning thankfully. The next wave is coming ashore now at the coast, and even this one is checking in a bit more manageable than it looked this morning.
Rain is moving back in on the coast, with scattered downpours elsewhere. Heavier rain is moving toward Beaumont and Port Arthur. (RadarScope)
Still, rain rates around 1 inch an hour or so are likely as this pushes ashore. As it moves north and east, we’ll see most rain impacts on the southeast side of Houston, with isolated to scattered downpours north and west. Total rainfall will be an additional inch or two at the coast and less inland (except in isolated heavier downpours) through this evening. Any street flooding is expected to be more nuisance in nature.
Looking ahead, modeling is suggesting another rather beefy area of rain and storms approaches the area overnight or early on Thursday morning. This would be capable of perhaps another 1 to 4 inches of rain.
An additional 1 to 4 inches of rain is possible near the coast through Thursday morning, with isolated higher amounts also a possibility. (Pivotal Weather)
There remains enough uncertainty in the models that we use for these type of rain events that I think maintaining the Stage 2 alert for the coastal areas and Stage 1 inland is the right move. One model we track closely during these events suggests as much as 7 to 10 inches could fall in a worst case scenario between Galveston and Port Arthur and southwest Louisiana. I would especially watch the Beaumont-Port Arthur area in this setup. We don’t expect that outcome, but we can’t rule it out entirely. For the majority of metro Houston and suburbs, another inch or two, with some seeing more and some less seems reasonable.
Eric will update us on Thursday morning with the latest regarding the rainfall.
In brief: A smattering of showers and thunderstorms will be with us today and tomorrow. More scattered storms are in play for Sunday. And then widespread rain and thunderstorms will be the forecast for much of next week, with locally heavy rain, some flooding, gusty winds at times, but also cooler temperatures.
A quick housekeeping note: The latest version of the Space City Weather app is available for Android and iOS now. Dwight will have a post out later this morning explaining the changes that went into this version and how you can report any bugs (not just the mosquitoes landing on your phone inside your house). As a side note, since beginning this journey with Eric almost 10 years ago now, it’s pretty cool to see how far this has come. No app is perfect, but I am proud of ours, and I hope you find it to be useful.
Today
We have two clusters of storms this morning in the area. The first is to the west of Sugar Land, dropping across Wharton County. A second area of storms extends from Kingwood east toward Beaumont. Those should continue to drop southward and gradually weaken. Look for a few more showers and storms to form this afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are dropping southward this morning. Radar grab from 6:35 AM. (RadarScope)
After failing to hit 90 yesterday thanks to cloud cover and rain-cooled air behind yesterday morning’s system, highs will top off in the low-90s today. It actually felt kind of nice yesterday!
Weekend
Saturday actually looks like a fairly decent day overall. Yes, there will be a chance of showers or a thunderstorm. But on the whole, rain chances will be at a relative low compared to what’s ahead Sunday and beyond. So look for a smattering of afternoon showers and highs in the low-90s.
Sunday looks a little busier. We’ll have a little more moisture and enough support for more in the way of scattered thunderstorms. Lows will be in the 70s, with highs around 90 or a little hotter depending on rainfall.
Monday through Thursday
If you have plans next week that involve anything outdoors, make sure you also have an alternative lined up. It looks like a chaotic, busy week in the atmosphere over Texas. We will have numerous vigorous disturbances pushing across Texas with a large trough in the upper atmosphere. This means numerous daily rain chances, locally heavy rain, a few strong storms, and cooler temperatures than normal.
Additional expected rain between today and next Friday morning. (Pivotal Weather)
It remains very difficult to predict exactly when the heaviest rain will be. Right now I’d hone in on later Monday or Tuesday and again later Wednesday or Thursday for the best odds, but that may shift around a bit. What we do know is that the amount of moisture available in the atmosphere will be 100 to 150 percent of normal, which typically translates to at least a couple rounds of heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center currently has forecasts for excessive rain out through Tuesday and has the region at least in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) each day. I would say to expect an additional 3 to 6 inches *on average* across the region. Some places may see a bit less than that, but it’s conceivable that a couple places will see more with enough storm activity through next Thursday. We will likely have to dust off the flood scale again Sunday or Monday and keep it up through Thursday or Friday. This would be primarily for street flooding concerns. Check back with us for more perhaps on Sunday.
While thunderstorms are likely, severe weather is merely possible, not likely. Any severe storms should be isolated and brief. There will be gusty winds at times with any storms, and severe or not, that may be both unsettling to you and the power system. So periodic temporary power outages can’t be ruled out through next week. I get the anxiety, trust me.
As noted, cooler weather will arrive next week thanks to the clouds and rain.
High temperatures on Wednesday may not make it past the mid-80s! (Pivotal Weather)
For example, on Wednesday, like some people’s taste in music, we will struggle to get past the mid-80s. These suppressed daytime highs will continue into late week before we slowly rebound next weekend. Nighttime lows will not necessarily play along, as they should remain in the 70s.
In brief: Additional rain is likely over the coming days, including a round of widespread moderate to heavy rain this morning, after some parts of the area saw as much as 2 to 3 inches yesterday. The most widespread activity will probably occur next week. Also today, we discuss the mosquito misery in the wake of Hurricane Beryl.
We had some gnarly thunderstorms in some parts of the area on Wednesday afternoon. I just happened to be driving from Pearland back to Houston as the storm over the southwest side of the city exploded.
Rain totals were most confined to three areas yesterday: Pasadena and southeast Houston, Bellaire and West U, and on the Brazoria/Fort Bend County line. (RadarScope)
While the power outages were not prolific, it certainly caused street flooding. The three bullseyes yesterday were on the Fort Bend/Brazoria County line, in the Bellaire/West U area, and just south of the Ship Channel in Pasadena and Deer Park. This is what can happen on days like this, so just be prepared if storms strike that they could produce quick street flooding in addition to prolific lightning and some hail.
Today
A line of heavy, but non-severe storms is moving into the northern fringes of our area this morning. Expect this to push southward through mid-morning, which will disrupt your morning commute. Give yourself a couple extra minutes this morning to deal with this.
Radar loop ending at 6:40 AM showing heavy, but non-severe storms pushing into the area. (RadarScope)
Rain rates are generally around or below an inch an hour, winds are around 30 to 35 mph or so as it moves in, and lightning will accompany the storms. Some of this could weaken as it drops into Houston proper. But there is some pretty healthy activity on the western side of this cluster, particularly heading into Waller County and perhaps back toward Sealy and Columbus. Additional storms could fire with daytime heating after that for the afternoon but those will be a bit trickier to pinpoint. Once everything moves through, we should be able to sneak back into the low-90s for highs.
Friday through Sunday
Much like yesterday, all three days will feature at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each morning into afternoon. Some folks will see downpours capable of producing a quick 1 to 3 inches of rain and street flooding, while others will see little. Most places should get at least some rain at some point between tomorrow and Sunday though. Look for highs around 90 or so all three days.
Monday through Wednesday
A slightly more vigorous upper level weather pattern arrives next week, and with a cold front in name only sitting near us, it should all act together to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region. Rain could be locally heavy and storms could be locally strong. Again, we are not currently highlighted for any severe weather risks, but as is often the case in summer, we could see a “pulse” of strong to locally severe storms each afternoon somewhere in the area. Usually in those cases, storms become severe and drop back below severe limits all within an hour or so.
Another 2 to 5 inches, including this morning’s rain will be likely through next week across most of the area. Some places may see more than this. (Pivotal Weather)
Today it appears that through next Thursday morning, most folks will see 2 to 5 inches of additional rain. Clearly after some places saw 1 to 3 inches in an hour yesterday, it’s plausible that someone will see more than 4 or 5 inches more through next week. But it’s impossible to pinpoint who and when. So for now, assume your lawns will receive a healthy watering, and you’ll have to dodge hefty downpours at times.
Mosquito madness
Speaking of that. A number of you have commented regarding the plague of mosquitoes we have seen that started about a week after Beryl hit. I can confirm myself that these are not your typical mosquitoes; these suckers are the size of Volkswagens and mean business. I had my assumptions, but I reached out to the Harris County Public Health Department to inquire how Beryl played a role. Dr. Max Vigilant, Director of the Mosquito & Vector Control Division gave me some answers. Here were my questions and Dr. Vigilant’s complete answers.
Q: Is it our imagination, or have we seen an uptick in mosquitoes in the wake of Hurricane Beryl? A: Yes, there was an increase in the number of “floodwater mosquitoes” after Beryl. These mosquitoes lay their eggs in soil, mud, grass, wooded areas, etc. Their eggs can stay dry. Once impacted by water, they will hatch. These mosquitoes prey on heavy rains, floods, and weather events.
Q: Why do you think we started noticing it about 6 days after the storm? A: We noticed it several days after the storm because that is when they start hatching. As I mentioned, the eggs can withstand drying for a long time. As soon as water touches them, they hatch. Within 5 to 7 days, they will become adults. A typical cycle can take up to 10 days.
Why are you the way that you are?
Q: Do we expect this to level off? A: Yes, it will be just like it did after the Derecho event in May. As temperatures rise and sunshine is present, many water bodies will dry up. This will reduce the number of floodwater mosquitoes as their habitat will dry off. We must remember that they will lay eggs in the moist areas and await the next rain event.
Q: What can people do to try to make their properties less hospitable to them? A: People must clean up their surroundings and remember to “Tip, Toss, Take Action.”
Tip over open containers that hold water, especially after the rain.
Toss out those water-collecting containers they don’t need or don’t use.
Take Action by protecting yourself from mosquito bites. (Use an EPA-approved insect repellant, wear long sleeves and long pants when working outdoors, and clear out drains.)
Now that residents are cleaning up, they should store the debris, old fencing, etc., where they cannot collect or hinder water flow.
Thanks to Dr. Vigilant and Harris County Public Health for answering this for us! As a note: With a rainy pattern continuing over the next week, do as much as you can with respect to tipping and tossing above!
