This would be something of an unseasonably warm weekend anytime it occurs in winter, and to some it would be considered quite nice. After the chill of the last couple weeks, this weekend will probably feel nice to almost all. Sunshine, temps in the 70s (maybe 80?), and generally low humidity will continue.
Someone’s hitting 80 today (but it won’t be Galveston, sorry). (Pivotal Weather)
Note how much cooler it is at the coast, with Galveston likely staying below 70 degrees. Water temperatures near the coast are in the mid-50s, which has converted the coastal Gulf into a localized air conditioning unit.
Pier 21 water temperatures are in the 50s in Galveston. (NOAA)
These will rebound quickly over the next week, but the combo of cold water and warm air may produce fog by Monday or Tuesday, and it will allow the island to be significantly cooler (10-15 degrees) than inland locations.
Next week
Our warmest days look to be Monday through Wednesday. Eric paid homage to the 70s yesterday, but it may be the 80s that we speak of on a couple days next week (and perhaps today). Depending on what model ensemble you choose, there’s a 20 to 40 percent chance we do it on Wednesday.
The 80s, man! (Pivotal Weather)
We should see shower chances infiltrate the picture beginning Tuesday however, and a weak-ish cold front looks to sneak in just after that. But it appears any cooldown will be fairly short lived, and it may be back to the 70s or 80s after a couple cool days off.
Drought update
Eric discussed the rain situation earlier this week. The latest drought update was released on Thursday and shows a small expansion of drought.
This week’s Drought Monitor update shows a slight expansion in drought coverage in the Houston area versus a week ago. (US Drought Monitor)
Keep in mind that this does not include the rain we saw on Tuesday (the report ends at 7 AM Tuesday). And some places saw a fair bit of helpful rain. We’ll have to see if we can cash in next week with our couple of chances. As nice as this weekend is, we probably need a couple days of soaking rain to help us out right now. If you follow weather folks on social media, you’re probably beginning to see chatter about a developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific as we head toward spring. Historically, that can skew the odds in favor of a wetter spring here in Texas, but we’re still a good way off before that would kick into gear. Something for us to keep tabs on though.
In brief: Another possible hard freeze awaits Houston on Sunday morning with colder air starting once more today. Remember your plants, pets, pipes, and neighbors. However, it does look like we swing back warmer next week for a time before our next chance of rain around midweek.
If you enjoyed the cold temperatures earlier this week, we have good news for you. If you hate the cold, we also have good news for you. Let’s just call it a good news Friday!
Basic cold weather preps again this weekend
We tend to treat the cold with some cheekiness, but it’s obviously always serious business here in Texas when it gets this cold. Saturday night and Sunday morning is the timeframe you want to really take some precautions on the extra sensitive plants, keep the pipes wrapped, and absolutely bring the pets inside.
Today
This morning may see some mixed sun and clouds before we likely go mainly cloudy for the afternoon. There is a chance that we’ll see the back edge of the clouds begin to push through the region by late afternoon and evening, followed by a clear and colder overnight. Highs will be in the 50s today as long as we get some breaks in the clouds or maybe they aren’t super thick. Otherwise, we’ll say upper-40s to low-50s.
Saturday
With clear skies will come colder temperatures tonight. Lows will be in the 30s with a light freeze possible outside the 610 Loop. Temps may dip into the 20s in some far-flung rural areas in Liberty, Walker, northern Waller, Austin, or Colorado Counties. A cold weather advisory has been posted for the entire area for Saturday morning.
Saturday morning’s low temperatures will be cold but not terribly serious. (Pivotal Weather)
Saturday itself should be a blustery but nice winter day with sunshine and highs in the 40s. The wind will make it feel more like the 30s however, even with the sunshine.
Sunday
We would advise cold weather preparations, which most of you already implemented this week anyway to continue on Sunday morning. Lows should drop into the 20s area wide.
Morning lows forecast for Sunday could cause isolated issues to non-winterized or exposed plants, pipes, and pets. (Pivotal Weather)
A few locations may even dip into the teens in rural or sheltered spots. There is even some chance that a few places in the area check in as cold on Sunday morning than they did at the peak of the cold earlier this week. Coastal areas will drop to near freezing. A freeze watch is in effect.
(NWS Houston)
The rest of Sunday looks glorious with sunshine, lighter winds, and highs in the 50s. Just an absolutely picture-perfect winter day.
Next week
We should continue the warming trend Monday with sunshine and highs in the 60s. A few freezing temps are possible in outlying areas one last time Monday morning, with 30s or low 40s elsewhere. Tuesday should be even warmer with highs near 70 degrees and lows in the 40s and 50s. The forecast looks a smidge trickier later next week with a chance of showers or storms and a cold front either later Tuesday or Wednesday, followed by more seasonably cold air than the unseasonable cold we saw this week to close out the first week of February.
In brief: The forecast for Houston remains on track overnight, as freezing temperatures enter the western fringe of Greater Houston. We expect periods of rain, freezing rain, and sleet overnight with falling temperatures and isolated thunder. Roads will likely be sloppy in spots, especially north and west of Houston. We encourage folks to heed the advice of local officials and stay off the roads tomorrow, at least until they can be evaluated and assessed.
Good evening everyone. I just want to shout out Eric for doing virtually everything himself this week, as I have been quite active with preparations for this storm. Winter storms are always challenging to forecast, and this one has been no different. But we’re almost into primetime now, so let’s look at where we stand heading into the overnight.
Temperatures
Generally, the entire Houston Metro area remains above freezing as of 10:45 this evening. Outlying areas west of the city are dropping below freezing now, particularly near Sealy, Bellville, Navasota as examples.
Temperatures at or below freezing are slowly creeping south and east into the outer reaches of Greater Houston. (NOAA)
Temperatures will continue to drop, with the freezing line probably entering the western Metro area around 1 AM or so, the I-45 corridor north of I-10 around 3-4 AM, and the Inner Loop by 7 AM. Note that the freezing line will push farther south than it will east faster, so places like Bay City and Wharton will drop below freezing before places like Humble as an example.
Forecast temperatures from the HRRR model at 7 AM Sunday. Some locations may be 1 to 2 degrees colder than shown here. (Pivotal Weather)
Then on Sunday, expect temperatures to hold near freezing all day from Houston north and west and probably around 32 to 34 degrees south and east.
Freezing rain & sleet
The area has been in a lull this evening with sprinkles, drizzle, fog, mist, a couple showers, but nothing else really. That will change over the next few hours. Expect showers to become more numerous in the area with a period of moderate to heavy precipitation arriving in the Houston area between 1 and 6 AM. It won’t be precipitating heavily during that entire time, but there will be areas that see moderate rain and freezing rain or even moderate sleet as well.
Precipitation in Central Texas is going to move eastward tonight. While the heaviest passes to our north, a burst of heavier rain, freezing rain, or sleet is likely before sunrise. (RadarScope)
The heaviest of the precipitation will thankfully pass to our north. However, it will be this area of rain or freezing rain or sleet that begins to cause problems on area roadways. This will be especially true north and west of Houston. I think most places are going to see around 0.10 of ice or perhaps a bit less, especially if sleet overtakes freezing rain as the dominant form of precipitation. There will likely be patches in northern Wharton, Austin, Waller, Fort Bend, western Harris, Montgomery, Walker, Grimes, and Washington Counties that see perhaps 0.1 to 0.2 inches of ice. At those levels, we’ll almost certainly see very slick bridges and overpasses, as well as freeway flyovers. Surface streets will take a little longer to freeze, but I would expect patchy black ice on area roads late tonight and Sunday morning.
In addition to the precipitation, there will likely be at least a few lightning strikes overnight. With a wicked temperature inversion (temperatures warming with altitude), some of that thunder may be extra loud. I don’t think the excitable dog index gets much higher than a 2 or 3 out of 10 due to mostly isolated strikes.
The message we’ve been echoing from our local elected officials and emergency management agencies is that we strongly advise you stay off the roads overnight and on Sunday morning. Let officials check the situation out in the morning. If it’s not as bad as feared, wonderful. But if it’s a slopfest, we need to keep those roads wide open for first responders who also will need to slow down and drive carefully. Stay safe.
Other notes
Winds will be blustery on Sunday. Expect gusts of 20 to 25 mph creating wind chills in the teens, especially in the afternoon. I am not optimistic that we’re going to see much sunshine tomorrow. In fact, the cloud cover may linger into tomorrow night helping keep temperatures milder than forecast, likely in the mid-20s in most of the metro area. We should see the sun return by Monday afternoon. With clearer skies, it’s plausible that Tuesday morning will actually be colder than Monday in Houston, not by a ton but at least a little bit. You’ll want to maximize your cold weather protections through Tuesday.
Eric will be up early on Sunday to give you an update on the latest. Stay safe, and stay warm!
In brief: Today, we tackle some colder weather for Houston this weekend, but most importantly, we look at the prospects of snow during the Texans/Patriots game in Foxborough on Sunday. We also have the latest on next week’s rain chances and some signs of colder weather again next weekend-ish.
Texans Outlook
We’re going to start in New England rather than in Texas today. Obviously, many of you are amped up for the Texans/Patriots game, with the Texans having a chance to do something exciting and positive for both the city and America in general. We are too. We’re also pretty intrigued by the forecast. The 50,000 foot view here is that a storm system is likely to pass through on Saturday, with rain showers ending as snow showers across southern New England. Then, on Sunday another storm system is going to develop off the Southeast coast, perhaps bringing some snow as far south as southern Georgia or even the Florida Panhandle. As that moves offshore and to the northeast, it will likely graze southeastern New England. It will be a close call for the Texans game.
Sunday snow forecast from 1PM through 7 PM. (NWS Boston)
A couple reasons for this. First, the storm track is not set in stone yet. A more suppressed storm would keep most precip closer to Cape Cod or coastal Massachusetts than Foxborough (remember, Gillette Stadium is closer to Providence than Boston). But if the current models are correct, Foxborough will be in the sweet spot for developing snow late on Sunday afternoon. Most importantly, timing is everything. Models have varied a bit on the snow’s onset for Sunday. Kickoff is 2 PM CT/3 PM ET, and it appears that snow develops in that window. It could be a situation where the game starts out with nothing worse than flurries, but the second half gets a little gnarly. Is that good for the Texans? The offense and fans should enjoy temperatures that may actually be about 4 to 8 degrees warmer than in Pittsburgh (mid to upper 30s) despite the snow, with lighter winds (5 to 10 mph). The defense? I’m pretty sure you could put them in a hockey rink on roller-skates and they’d still be scary good. Whatever happens: Let’s go Texans!
Today
Back to our local weather, it’s a cool start again today, but we’re heading up, up, up this afternoon. With sunshine, we should push into the low-70s.
Weekend
Another uneventful cold front pushes into the area tonight with maybe just a passing shower south and east of Houston. That will push offshore overnight, and much cooler weather will drop back in for Saturday. Morning lows will be in the 40s and 50s, followed up by breezy conditions and highs in the mid-50s at best. Saturday will be sunny once again.
Sunday morning will be the coldest so far of this stretch of cooler weather. A light freeze is possible in outlying areas. (Pivotal Weather)
Our coldest night of the current stretch so far will come tomorrow night into Sunday morning with lows in the 30s across the area. We will likely see temperatures near the freezing mark across northern parts of the area, as well as the usually sheltered colder spots out toward Bellville and Sealy and into Fort Bend and Wharton Counties, as well as in Liberty County. Sunday itself looks like a lovely winter day with sun and highs in the 50s.
Next week
There are no big forecast changes for next week. Monday starts quiet and sunny for those able to honor and enjoy the MLK holiday. Highs will be in the 60s after morning lows in the 30s and 40s. Clouds move in Tuesday, along with cooler temperatures. And the prospect of a widespread rain remains somewhat in the cards for Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned. Extreme and severe drought has expanded over the last week in the Houston area. We need rain.
Thereafter, we’ll watch for colder risks next weekend, possibly some of the coldest air of winter (though a Texas freeze event does *not* look likely at this time). Speaking of cold…
A message from Reliant
As Eric explained in yesterday’s post, January has been warm so far but cooler temps coming our way this weekend! At Reliant, we’re sharing a few energy-efficiency tips and simple home improvement tasks that can keep your heating system from working harder than it needs to and keep you from spending more on winter electricity bills.
Try space heaters in high-traffic rooms. Lower your thermostat and use an energy-efficient space heater in rooms where you spend the most time.
Check your thermostat. If you have an electric heater, set the thermostat to 68 degrees while you’re awake. Lower it and add an extra blanket while you sleep to save energy.
Use your drapes. Thermal drapes can help block drafts and retain heat, especially on older windows. Open south-facing curtains during the day to let in sunlight and close them at night to trap warmth.
Invest in smart plugs and smart power strips. These allow you to control the power supply to devices remotely via a smartphone app. This way, you can easily shut off power to devices not in use, even when you’re not at home.
Layer up. Reach for a sweater or blanket before reaching for the thermostat. Weather-appropriate clothes help reduce the demand for heat. Plug in your electric blanket and stay warm for around 25 cents a day.
Install insulation. While more of a long-term project, you can regulate your home’s temperature and reduce heating costs by adding insulation.
Weatherstrip exterior doors and windows. With a couple of hours’ work, you can seal out the cold and save up to 10 percent on total energy costs.
