Matt Lanza

In brief: After a quiet weekend, rain chances pick back up Monday and Tuesday before potentially heavier and more widespread rain on Wednesday and Thursday. Tropical development in the Bay of Campeche will not directly impact Houston, but indirect impacts with rough seas, gusty coastal winds, and some tidal flooding will be possible.

Right out of the gate, we want to make sure people understand that next week’s weather is being driven by two entities: The first is the potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche, which will not directly impact us. But the second will be the heavy rainfall on the north side, tangentially associated with it that will impact us. The latter continues to give us some forecast headaches, which we’ll explain below.

Today and Saturday

No issues are expected with plentiful sunshine. As always, a rogue downpour is possible in the afternoon, but much like yesterday it should be quick moving and very localized. Daytime highs will be in the low to mid-90s with elevated ozone levels as well, so poor air quality will be noticeable. Morning lows should be in the 70s tomorrow.

Sunday

For now, we expect much the same for Sunday, though a few extra clouds could begin to sneak in for the second half of the day, along with an isolated shower or downpour.

Monday & Tuesday

We expect scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though it’s a bit soon to pin down exactly where these will be most likely. Think of the first couple days of the week as slightly juicier typical summer days. There could be a handful of stronger storms or localized heavy downpours. This should keep temperatures down a bit as well, mostly in the 80s to near 90 degrees.

Wednesday & Thursday

We are beginning to see decent model agreement that Tuesday night, Wednesday, and early Thursday will feature our highest rain chances, and with that will likely come some heavy rainfall. I think this is the timeframe where I would be watching closest for potential flash flooding. The trouble right now is that our models widely differ on where this occurs. Our typical physics-based models are focusing things on the entirety of the Texas coast, while our newer AI models favor Houston into Louisiana for the heaviest rainfall.

One other possibility in this scenario is that a lot of rain falls at the immediate coast or offshore, which ends up depriving inland areas of moisture. So there is at least a chance that we see a very sharp gradient of rainfall next week with high totals near Galveston and very manageable totals in Houston. Things should hopefully quiet down later Thursday and Friday, regardless.

Marine impacts

In addition to the rainfall, we will likely see some pretty considerable wind and wave impacts over the open waters next week. With rather sustained easterly or east-southeast 20 to 30 mph winds nearshore and 30 to 35 mph winds offshore, look for waves to begin to build to 8 to 10 feet over the Gulf by midweek. I would anticipate nuisance to minor tidal flooding issues as we hit high tide cycles on Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll want to keep tabs on this just because of the persistence of the onshore flow next week.

Bay of Campeche system

We continue to see about a 50/50 shot that a tropical system develops in the Bay of Campeche next week.

As noted above, this is related but separate from the rain we see next week. While development (low-end) is becoming more possible or likely, it is expected to quickly slide ashore in Mexico, so no direct impacts are expected on the Texas coast.

Beyond this, there may be another sloppy system that tries to develop the week of June 24th, but we have plenty of time to watch that. We’ll have more on next week’s rainfall situation over the weekend.

In brief: Humidity will inch back up this weekend as we continue with quiet, hot weather. Another cold front may make an attempt to arrive early next week, but whether it brings a big drop in humidity or just a modest one remains to be seen.

On Thursday, the dewpoint at Bush Airport fell to 64° during the peak of our daytime heating. That’s the lowest it’s been since May 19th. While it was plenty hot yesterday, it was at least a bit less humid than we’ve been dealing with. Any break you can muster in the humidity in summer is a good break here in Houston. And we may have some more of it to come.

Today

We’re expecting a very similar day today as we saw Thursday. A few spots will push the upper-90s this afternoon. Humidity will again be low-ish. Walking outside this morning, it doesn’t feel quite as nice as yesterday, but still not terrible for summer. Heat risk today will be minor to moderate across the area.

One side note: Because of so much sunshine, ozone levels will be high today, and there are air quality alerts for ozone posted. So if you struggle with that, be aware that today will be further unpleasant.

Weekend

The humidity will slowly inch back up this weekend. Look for more of our standard 70s dewpoints with daytime highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances look minimal to near zero on Saturday with ample sunshine expected. Sunday stands a slightly better chance of a brief, passing shower, more in the “it can’t be entirely ruled out” range of things. Morning lows should hold in the mid-70s, with slightly steamier morning conditions.

Monday

The forecast gets very difficult here. From a rainfall perspective, we aren’t expecting anything crazy, just a few showers or storms for now. We’ll keep watch. The tricky part comes with determining how much this cold front can punch through Houston. The GFS model really wants to send the humidity back south to Cancun, while most other model data shows perhaps a modest drop in humidity, maybe similar to what we saw yesterday and today.

I would lean toward the latter, but there is a world in which the former could indeed come to fruition. History and climatology favors the Euro and other models in this instance. But never say never. Perhaps we’ll come back with good news later this weekend or Monday. One can hope.

Rest of next week

After Monday, the week looks to be somewhere between average and slightly unsettled. We could see a few thunderstorms as a trough settles in over us and we end up placed on the downward side of building ridge to our west and southwest. Temperatures look very benign with generally low-90s and 70s for lows, fairly average for mid-June. We should see temps reach back to the mid-90s by late week or the weekend.

Tropics

Look for a post over at The Eyewall in just a bit that will discuss the potential of a system in the Gulf in about 10 to 14 days. I am not concerned about this from a “big storm” or Houston impacts standpoint. It’s still early in the season and model support is lacking. However, there may be something that tries to get going later next week or after Father’s Day. I’ll have that for you a little later this morning.

In brief: Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds will push across the area through the morning. Street flooding and some scattered power outages are a good possibility. Additional storms are likely this weekend.

This morning

A squall line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms is moving into the area as we post this. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, localized street flooding, and wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph are a good bet as this pushes through.

While these storms are not quite as severe as what we saw back on Tuesday this week, this will likely set the day off on the wrong foot. It wouldn’t be the worst idea to delay your morning commute until these pass. Most wind gusts have been 35 to 45 mph recently as these pass, which is relatively standard for strong storms here. Still, given the area’s sensitivity of late, some scattered power outages may occur in parts of the area.

This afternoon

The morning storms will clear off to the south and east. Since the timing of these storms clearing occurs in the morning hours, the atmosphere may not have enough time to recover this afternoon. While I wouldn’t rule out additional showers or thunderstorms in spots this afternoon, the worst of the action will hopefully be confined to the morning. After a rain-cooled morning, temperatures should recover into the 80s this afternoon. Eric will update later today on any changes.

Tonight & Saturday

Look for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms tonight or Saturday. The exact timing and location remain frustrating to us in terms of predicting. But we are not done yet, that much we know. Some model guidance has a fair bit of storm activity tonight and Saturday, though mostly not severe and rain-focused. But this will be a period we continue to watch for storminess.

Sunday

Support for thunderstorms should be about ready to exit starting Sunday. I still think there’s enough juice and disturbances left to fire off another round of storms around the area, along with heavy rain and perhaps gusty winds. But the hope is that these will become a little less frequent. Highs in the 80s to near 90 degrees, lows in the upper-70s.

Next week

Storms have tended to move around the periphery of a ridge of high pressure over Mexico that has provided them with absolutely punishing, extreme, record heat this month. As that ridge expands a little next week, we should see storms lift back to the north some each afternoon or evening. So favored areas will be north toward Huntsville or even north of there. We’ll see an uptick in temperatures with low-90s possibly shifting toward mid-90s by mid to late week.

The more noteworthy item for next week will be a disturbance or even some kind of cool front that arrives later in the week. If that happens and pushes off to our south and east as shown, there is the chance that we set the stage for much, much nicer, less humid weather for a couple days next weekend. I would not rule out a morning low in the 60s in the Houston area at this point next Friday or Saturday. It’ll still be plenty hot each afternoon, but the mornings may be refreshing. Maybe. We’ll see!

In brief: Summer’s here, and through Memorial Day you will find little to no relief in the area. From there, the weather pattern may get a little more unsettled next week, but nothing stands out that we can hang our hat on just yet.

I know that no one wants to talk about hurricane season after last week, but NOAA’s extremely active seasonal forecast released yesterday should remind us to plan for the season to come. We wrote about their forecast and the current state of the tropics yesterday at our companion site, The Eyewall. We’ll be updating that site every day or two going forward as the weather requires.

For those struggling with continued poor air quality thanks to the haze and smoke from agricultural fires in Central America and Mexico, I don’t think we will see much relief this weekend. I am hopeful we get a shift in wind next week though.

Yesterday’s low temperature at Hobby Airport was 80 degrees, the third time already we’ve failed to drop below that mark this year. We’ve already tied for the earliest first 80 degree morning on record at Hobby this year, on May 21st, matching the previous record set in 2022. We are running about a month and a half ahead of normal, for whatever “normal” is worth anymore. Today will be the seventh morning where the low temperature has failed to drop below 78 degrees, which sets a new record at Hobby for the most before June 1st. We should add at least three or four more days to that before we get a wee bit of relief next week just before the calendar changes.

Anyway, I write all this to say that this is not a normal start to summer. It’s hitting strong and fast. And don’t be shocked to see a heat advisory this weekend. Practice heat safety this weekend. Yeah, it’s Houston and it’s always hot in summer. But we are not yet acclimated to these temperatures for the season, so heat illness can come on quick and unexpectedly. Some of us are still cleaning up from last week or even still without power. Check on those folks, keep your pets cool, and look before you lock.

Today through Sunday

The front portion of the holiday weekend looks partly to mostly sunny and hot. Expect highs in the mid-90s and lows near 80, or essentially normal weather for late July, not late May.

I would not be entirely floored to see an isolated thunderstorm roll through areas north of Houston, perhaps as close as The Woodlands or Magnolia. Most people will not see one, but if you do, it could rain hard for a short time, with lightning, gusty winds, or even some hail. Again, this is most likely to be isolated and north of Highway 105, but perhaps as close as Montgomery or northern Harris County.

Memorial Day

This should be the hottest day of the stretch. Expect mid to upper 90s and a mix of sun and clouds with just a slight chance of a late shower or storm north and west.

Sunday and Monday’s heat will border on “extreme” levels, so maximum heat precautions should be taken here.

Rest of next week

Things start to change a bit next week. Temperatures will shift to become a little “less hot,” which means more like low-90s than mid-90s. Nighttime lows may drift back more into the mid-70s. A series of disturbances may try to erode away the northeast portion of the ridge of high pressure over Texas, so that could be just enough to fire back up some thunderstorms after Monday. I don’t even want to begin to speculate on timing or details or any of that. Just know that the stagnant pattern of this weekend may change a bit next week.