Cold this morning, but rising temperatures are on the way

Temperatures have fallen to near freezing across most of Houston, but stayed just above it for the most part except for the usual cold spots such as Conroe and Huntsville. Now, our late winter roller coaster will turn back upward, with a warming trend through Saturday. After today, we’ll also say goodbye to the sunshine until Sunday, at least.

Wednesday

Winds remain out of the north, or northeast this morning, but they’re going to gradually swing to the east, and the southeast later today which will presage a warm-up in our weather after Monday’s descent into the depths of winter. Highs today should climb into the 50s under partly to mostly sunny skies, and with relatively light winds it will feel a fair deal warmer than Tuesday. Clouds return this evening, and there’s a slight chance of drizzle as early as the pre-midnight hours tonight. Lows likely will fall only to around 50 degrees.

Rodeo weather

This should be one of the nicest evenings for the rodeo so far, if a bit chilly. Temperatures going into the show should be in the low 50s, with mixed skies. Coming out afterward, temperatures won’t have budged much, but skies will probably be mostly cloudy by that time. We can’t rule out some light, misty rain after the show, but chances are less than 20 percent.

Thursday and Friday

Wednesday’s wind shift will drive big temperature differences toward the end of the work week. These will be mostly gray days, with temperatures in the 70s, and dewpoints nearly as high so we can expect to feel the humidity. Overnight lows will only fall into the 60s. Some light rain is possible both days—30 to 40 percent—but accumulations should be slight as the heavier rain probably will hold off until Saturday.

Saturday

The overall pattern for the weekend seems clear, but the details are in question, and when it comes to weather forecasts details matter. Broadly speaking, an upper-level system and associated cold front at the surface will move toward Texas this weekend, and this will drive some heavier rain and strong thunderstorms. Right now, the most severe weather associated with this system should remain to the northeast of the Houston metro area, but we’ll have to watch that over the next day or two. For Houston, then, we expect a muggy day in the upper 70s on Saturday, with very healthy rain chances. I don’t have much confidence in accumulations, as that will depend on how widespread thunderstorms are, so I think anywhere from a tenth or two, all the way to an inch or so is possible. Skies should clear overnight as some kind of front moves through.

Sunday and next week

This will not be the strongest of fronts, but hopefully there will be enough oomph to clear things out for Sunday, which has the potential to be a pretty nice day with highs in the 70s, some drier air, and partly to mostly sunny skies. If you’re planning outdoor activities, this day will probably work for you.

Most of Spring Break week looks fairly warm, with highs in the 70s. Hard to have too much confidence in too much sunshine, however, and rain may never be too far away. Our next significant cool down may not come until Thursday or Friday of next week. We’ll take a deeper look at the Spring Break forecast tomorrow.