Deep chill moves into Houston, bringing threat of light freezing rain Thursday night

Good morning. The cold front has pushed off the coast, and temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s to low 40s for most of the region. Our primary concern remains the potential for rainfall to turn into wintry precipitation this evening, and during the overnight hours. Secondarily, we are worried about cold temperatures on Thursday night falling below freezing, with wind chills in the low teens. Please protect your pets, and check on neighbors.

Thursday

Today will be cold, wet, and windy, with light to moderate precipitation winding down through the morning hours. Expect high temperatures to remain at about 40 degrees or slightly higher this afternoon, with northerly winds gusting to 25 or 30 mph. Rain remains possible this afternoon, although showers should be very light. There are two main forecast questions that we’re struggling with, and they’re both important to determine impacts from later today into Friday morning. First of all, how quickly will a freezing line advance from northwest of the Houston metro area down toward the coast? And secondarily, when will the precipitation end altogether?

Most likely, the freezing line will reach western parts of the metro area, including Katy; and northern parts, including The Woodlands; sometime this afternoon or shortly after sunset. This means that travel through Houston should be fine today and likely through the evening commute unless you’re going north of Conroe or to places northwest, beyond Hempstead. For more inland parts of the state, including Austin and Dallas, there are fairly serious icing problems today. You can check highway ice conditions at the Texas Department of Transportation’s Drive Texas website.

As the freezing line moves in, it looks as though very light precipitation may still be falling this afternoon, evening, and overnight. Our primary concern is that this will leave a thin glaze of ice on elevated roads and bridges into Friday morning. Within the Houston metro area, my sense right now is that essential travel will still be possible if you go slow and use caution. However, it does not take too much freezing rain to make a mess of things. The latest models have trended a bit drier in terms of overnight precipitation, which gives me some hope that ice accumulation is not going to be a significant problem in Harris County and most of the immediate area surrounding Houston. But again we’re walking a pretty fine line here. Matt and I will update the site a couple of more times today to bring you the latest data we have on this.

It looks like overnight temperatures will drop into the mid- to upper-20s for much of the Houston area, with the coast remaining near or just above freezing. Combined with winds, this will make for extremely cold conditions out of doors, but we don’t think it will cause widespread issues with pipes. So far the state’s power grid is holding up well, with electricity capacity far exceeding demand. We think that will continue to be the case tonight and into Friday, but can offer no guarantees.

Friday

So what can we expect roadways to look like Friday morning? This will depend on precipitation overnight, and right now our expectation is that there may be a light glaze on elevated roads and bridges. There is a chance for more significant ice accumulations, but as I look at the data right now that seems unlikely. Temperatures should rise above freezing during the mid- to late-morning hours, after which the threat of any ice on the roads will quickly abate. A winter weather advisory from the National Weather Service is in effect through noon Friday. High temperatures on Friday won’t go far—perhaps only to 40 or 42 degrees—but they’ll go far enough. With partly cloudy skies we can expect another cold night, with a light freeze possible in Houston.

Saturday

The first day of the weekend will be sunny and cold, with highs in the upper 40s. Winds should finally die down some, but this in turn will yield ideal conditions for cooling overnight, so a light freeze will again be possible for much of the metro area.

Sunday

Sunny with highs in the mid-50s. Lows Sunday night should finally remain above freezing for all but some areas in Montgomery County and points north.

Next week

For the most part we should see sunny weather next week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Rain chances are low for the most part. So cold, but not extremely cold.