Yesterday I received several questions on Twitter, Facebook, and during a radio appearance about what this very cold start to 2018—temperatures are about 8 degrees below normal, and we have now had eight nights with lows in the 20s—portends for the rest of the year. For example, does a cold start to the year give us momentum for a cooler-than-normal summer? Alas, the answer is almost certainly no. Historically, there is little connection between winter weather and the subsequent summer. In fact, I’d offer the year 2011 as a counterpoint to this notion. During that year we had an especially cold start to February. Here’s a climate graphic from that month:
Note the frigid temperatures in the first half of the month, with nine nights in the 20s at Bush Intercontinental Airport, including five at 25 degrees or below. These are all hard freezes. A lot of you will remember the rest of the story, as 2011 ended up being the city’s hottest year on record at the time. August was especially brutal, with all but one of the days that month reaching 100 degrees.
All of those stars in the graph above are record high temperatures. It was an absolutely brutal month. Let’s hope we’re not bound for similar weather this year.
Thursday
It’s still very cold out there this morning, but temperatures are generally 5 to 10 degrees above our lows on Wednesday morning, and we should reach highs in the low 40s today. It’s not balmy, but this should take care of any remaining ice. (Please do take care on stairs and other walkways this morning, however, as there likely are still some slippery spots). Lows will fall into the 30s Thursday night—northern areas may see a light freeze—before a warming trend kicks in for real on Friday.
Friday
As the onshore flow resumes, we should see high temperatures rebound into the 50s, and they’re not going to go down much from there over night. The bigger question is when, and how much, it rains beginning Friday through the weekend. An upper-level low pressure system will keep our skies mostly cloudy, and bring intermittent showers. I don’t think we’re looking at any significant accumulations, with most areas probably receiving about a half an inch of rain, or a little more. But unfortunately the warmer weather this weekend won’t be accompanied by sunny skies.
Saturday and Sunday
As mentioned, we can expect mostly cloudy skies, with some showers around town. Highs will be positively balmy in comparison to recent weather. Houston has not seen a high temperature of 70 degrees or higher since Dec. 22, but that should change this weekend as highs climb into the lows 70s. The best rain chances come on Sunday, with the approach of a moderate front—this one originates from the Pacific rather than the Arctic.
Next week
Frankly, in the wake of Sunday’s front, the weather looks really nice, with highs mostly in the 60s and lows in the 40s, with a fair amount of sunshine to start the week.
Wasn’t 2011 the drought year, with virtually no rainfall from mid-February until late fall?
I was thinking the same thing, not to mention that cold weather came with none or very little precipitation. What’s amazing is the amount of freezing rain or snow we’ve had the last month.
Yes. 2011 was the drought year that you are thinking of. I had forgotten that the year had started off as cold as it did.
Does a cold winter have any significant effect on gulf water temperatures? Specifically, can it mean a little less “fuel” for gulf tropical storms?
Been living in houston a long time and have never seen anything like this. Tuesday just blew me away when my thermometer read 27 degrees in the middle of the day! Then yesterday morning in the teens, and the day time only partially melts the ice. Some really crazy stuff for this city.
Try a HIGH temperature of MINUS 15 with an evening wind chill of about MINUS 50.
Life in the north.
Yes, but this is a Houston area feed… why would we care about northern temperatures?
Last year, I remember reading that this winter would be milder, and drier due to La Nina effects. Can you comment on why that did not seem to work out as predicted.
It seems to happen that when we have a hurricane, we have snow in the winter. That’s the weather pattern I’d like to know more about?
No connection. It’s a coincidence.
https://www.click2houston.com/news/houston-hurricanes-and-snowfall-linked-this-is-what-you-need-to-know
Hopefully this will be a very hot summer. The people that complain about the heat and wish for cold have been notably absent from the outdoors this week. They need to learn to be careful what they wish for.
Don’t know about you, but I took a 3 mile walk yesterday afternoon and found it refreshing and invigorating.
I have yet to put a jacket on and my windows are open. I would be thrilled with 40 and below for 3 more months.
They (we) were wishing for Houston cold. You know, 40s for highs. This ain’t cold. This is Hoth.
Not even close.
People just don’t understand how Murphy’s Law works.
With regards to weather:
Winters will almost always be colder than normal, unless you are in the South and like cold weather, then winters will almost always be hotter than normal. In fact, almost as hot as summer is where you grew up in the North.
Summers will always be hotter than normal, except when you get hit by two or three tropical systems in a single year or a single 500 year flood.
That’s life! Get used to it!
Any thoughts as to whether we might have more sub-freezing temps in Houston this winter?
Is this data consistent with the idea that “global warming” is more about increasingly extreme weather (both hot and cold) than about consistently warmer temperatures?
I’ve always took the “more extreme weather” argument to be a (fundamentally dishonest) device to make sure your theory is correct regardless of whether it is too hot or too cold. My $0.02.
I’d rather stick with science.
So are we in the clear (with regard to freezing temps) for the remainder of January? What about February? Is it impossible to predict at this point. How quickly can a winter system change?
I bought my house that August. Packing and moving in that weather was horrendous!