In brief: All our available data continues to point toward the arrival of a line of storms after midnight, moving from west to east across the Houston metro area. Because the heaviest of these rains are likely to fall north of Houston, and the high amounts of rainfall already received there this week, we are raising our flood alert for areas along and north of Interstate 10 to Stage 2 for tonight and Sunday.
The overall pattern we’ve been in for the last several days will persist tonight into Sunday. That is to say, the atmosphere is chock full of moisture and unstable. A forcing agent will come early Sunday as a disturbance moves into the region from the west. In recent days the trend has been toward rain events over-performing expectations. So I don’t want anyone to let their guard down just yet.
After midnight we’re likely to see the development of an MCS to the west of Houston. What is an MCS? In meteorological parlance, it stands for ‘mesoscale convective system,’ essentially a large complex of thunderstorms. But when they come through at night I prefer to think of an MCS as a ‘midnight canine stimulant.’ So yeah, it could be one of those nights.
The primary risk is thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Generally, I think most of the area will pick up 1 to 3 inches, but my concern is the potential for bullseyes of 5 inches, or more. The most probable location for these heavy rains is areas north of Houston, which have already received a foot of rainfall, or more, during the past week.
After the strongest part of the MCS sweeps through, likely around 3 to 6 am for areas such as Katy, 4 to 7 am for downtown Houston, and a little later for the coast, we are likely to see additional showers—on and off—for most of the rest of Sunday. It’s my hope that these will be a little less intense, and a little less organized than the initial push early on Sunday. Matt will have a full update for you tomorrow morning.
You’re probably not going to be believe me, and that’s fine. But I still do expect our pattern to dry out on Monday. We’ll turn sunnier, and hotter for awhile. Rain chances may not go away entirely, but they’ll be significantly diminished.
Thank you for keeping us informed. It gives me peace of mind.
We really appreciate all you do! Thank you!
Thank you for the information.
Fellas, we get that your brand is ‘low hype weather’ and for the most part we appreciate it. But really, when you forecast ‘1 to 4 inch showers that could cause minor road flooding’, and 12 inches of rain shows up, it’s just not serving your credibility well. We are under water in The Woodlands and nothing in your communications stream up to Thursday suggested that possibility. It’s happened before. Those of us on waterways need to know when preventive action needs to be taken like securing boats, outdoor equipment, pools, etc. Some of us also have to go shopping and/or pick up meds and reschedule doctor appointments before our roads flood.
Honestly I think your bias to play down severe outcomes is a safety issue. We are all grown-ups and can handle reliable info, good or bad. Might be time to adjust the strategy and give us the straight goods. Preparing for a Tax Day flood that doesn’t materialize is a lot different than preparing for a three hour event that is really a Tax Day flood.
With respect, no one forecasted what happened. Same as during the tax day flood that I also flooded in. None of the models showed anything like what happened. So settle down on the criticism. It isn’t an exact science.
Grow up. It’s weather. Even these guys can’t he right all the time.
They don’t have a “bias”. They attempt to present the forecast without a bias. That is the difference between SCW and all of the local media, which present info for clicks and likes and nothing else.
Sometimes SCW will be wrong. Way wrong in this case. So were everyone else!
At least SCW acknowledges that. It’s onot because they have an agenda. It’s simply because accurately forecasting Texas Gulf Coast weather in 2024 is nigh impossible.
Wonder why?
We are all lucky to have them.
Forecasting the weather is not an exact science and is essentially predicting the future of a chaotic system with an untold number of variables. Many of the variables can change on a dime. I have no doubt that if there was any credible hint in the models that this system had the potential to do what it did SCW would have let us known.
I think… seriously…prepare yourselves for the worst and hope for the best. This is Houston and the Gulf Coast, smdh. If your a grown up….well, I’ll just leave it there…
Ken, we get that you’re upset if you’re “under water in the Woodlands.” But calm down and stop blaming the messenger. You are so focused on your neck of the woods (pun intended) that you don’t understand that most of Houston got just a couple of inches of rain — or less in some locations such as mine in SW Houston. In short, Eric’s and Matt’s forecast was pretty accurate for most Houstonians. And they did say that isolated areas could get significantly higher rainfall totals. I’m sorry you flooded and hope you recover quickly.
So find a new source for your information, it’s not difficult these days.
Very good on the MCS… Midnight Canine Stimulant. Will do. Thanks.
So, pretty high on the excitable dog scale tonight. Joy. And more rain. More joy.
Anyway, thanks for keeping us up to date. We appreciate all the work you do. Even if the storms sometimes over perform.
Y’all do a great job and we so appreciate your forecasts. No one is correct all the time.
I am an ex-Texan, having moved to Colorado 30 years ago. While I love the climate and weather here and do not miss Texas’ petulant weather, I understand that weather is a moving target, a kind of large, chaotic system, if you will. Getting the forecast right most of the time is not to be taken lightly. Frustrations aside, and there are many probably, give me level-headed weather reporting any day over the overuse of emotional words and sensationalist twists. Matt and Eric, your years of training are not in vain–they’re just going to get tested more and more.
Welcome to Texas: Get all your rain for the year in 2 weeks. Then 5 months without.
Is it likely these storms will disrupt flights like they did Thursday /Friday?
Midnight Canine Stimulant made me laugh. One of mine is deaf….only triggered if she wakes up to the flashes of lightening. The other comes and lays on me, all 75 lbs of him. 😴
Adorable
The messed-up scale convective system sure doesn’t sound good. It sounds scary. 😥
Haven’t gotten a drop in the Freeport area…
More terrible weather. Big shocker. So over this.
After today it will be drier days ahead, cheer up Adam
Yes. Ken definitely needs to up his personal responsibility if he lives so vulnerably, and find another outlet for his frustration.
Well done defending Eric and Matt. Eric and Matt, ya’lls sense of humor is top notch!
It’s stressful to be flooded. Let’s all have mercy on each other 🧡 Houston Strong.