Fairly typical start to the weekend, before another cool front tries and fails to move through

Not a ton of storms yesterday, but those that did occur were noisy, and one even produced a tornado in northwest Harris County.

Tornadoes aren’t exactly commonplace in summertime storms around here, and nothing about yesterday was especially remarkable from a severe weather risk standpoint. This tornado may have been more like a “landspout” rather than a classic tornado. But Thursday’s event serves as a good example of how a tornado can occur if the right conditions come together, even briefly. Sometimes these things just happen. Moving on, we have another pair of fairly typical summertime days before things get perhaps a little more unsettled later this weekend.

Friday & Saturday

Both today and tomorrow look fairly similar for the most part with sunshine, some clouds, and hot, humid weather. Look for highs in the mid-90s, possibly upper-90s. Lows will be generally in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Rain chances are in the general 20 to 40 percent range both days, with Friday perhaps seeing higher risks south and Saturday seeing higher risks north.

Sunday

I think I’ve used the word “front” this summer more times than in any previous summer in my almost 10 years in Houston. Yet another “cool” front will approach the region Sunday. As per usual in August, it won’t clear our area, and we almost certainly won’t see less humidity. But it will likely be enough to help increase our shower & storm chances closer to 50 percent or even a bit higher. So, of course, that means some neighborhoods likely won’t see rain this weekend, but others could get doused with a couple inches in a short time.

With clouds and showers more prevalent regionally on Sunday, we will probably see slightly cooler temperatures, and highs should top off in the low to mid-90s with morning lows in the 70s.

Early next week

I think Monday will just be a logical extension of Sunday’s weather with slightly higher than usual storm coverage during the day and temperatures perhaps held back a degree or two due to clouds. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the pattern should gradual resolve back to more typical August with daily, sea breeze driven showers and storms and highs generally in the mid-90s and lows in the 70s.

Tropics

Fred has struggled a good bit since yesterday, barely holding on at times. But Fred’s not quite dead yet we don’t think, and it looks as though it will at least try to regain a little momentum as it lifts north into the Eastern Gulf. It is not a concern for Texas at this time.

Fred should still struggle, even if it better organizes some, as the system deals with wind shear that is not expected to relent much between now and landfall. Look for a moderate tropical storm, probably at worst. Rainfall of between 4 and 10 inches is possible along and east of where Fred tracks, meaning a good bit of Florida will get a good bit of rain. Georgia and Alabama may also see some fairly healthy rain.

Behind Fred, the system called “Invest 95L” will continue along west-northwest, with high odds of developing into a tropical system by the time it gets to the northern Caribbean islands. It should face similar challenges to Fred, so I’d only expect slow, gradual development at this time. We should continue to monitor Invest 95L’s progress, but at this point, our best models continue to say this is unlikely to be a western Gulf threat. Another area of storms may emerge off Africa this weekend that will have some slight odds to slowly develop also.