In brief: Typical summer weather will be with us to start the week, but rain chances increase Wednesday afternoon and especially Thursday and Friday as a change in the pattern over Texas leads to potentially cooler temperatures and wetter weather.
Good morning, and we hope the situation has improved for you this weekend. I know there are still hundreds of thousands without power, a situation that remains frustrating and disappointing all around. We have had some modest fortune with the weather the last few days, with officially 90 on Saturday and 93 on Sunday. Last year this weekend was 99 and 98 degrees respectively. I’m certainly not trying to lessen the real complaints of extreme discomfort so many have endured, but we are lucky this isn’t even worse.
As we attempt to recover some degree of normalcy this week, the weather will stay pretty normal for July as well, but that may begin to change late week — and not in the hotter direction either.
Today and Tuesday
Today and tomorrow will essentially be cut from the same cloth: Look for sun, clouds, and the requisite 20 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms as the sea breeze nudges inland. It will probably be a touch hotter today and tomorrow than we saw this weekend, with low to mid-90s. Heat will be on the higher side, and for those of you still without power and for the line workers trying to get you back, it will be important to take it as easy as possible, stay hydrated, and catch a break in some AC whenever possible. Here is a list of Houston area cooling centers and shelters if you need locations.
Wednesday
Rain chances will probably nudge up closer to 40 or 50 percent on Wednesday afternoon. As high pressure amplifies over the Four Corners region, we end up on the “downstream” side of that, where disturbances can swing through and help enhance our rain chances a bit. Highs will be in the 90s with higher humidity. Low temps continue in the upper-70s.
Thursday and beyond
The trickiest parts of the forecast come late this week. A rather aggressive trough in the upper atmosphere for July and potential cool front will likely start to infringe on Southeast Texas. For us that means much higher rain chances and perhaps somewhat cooler temperatures. For now, expect highs near 90 or in the low-90s. But rain chances will bump up to around 50 to 60 percent. Some of the rain could be locally heavy late week.
We’ll keep track of this through the week to see how it all evolves, but have the umbrella very handy Thursday and Friday.
Beyond that, the odds of below average temperatures actually go up a good bit for next weekend and a decent chunk of next week too. Now, below average temperatures in late July in Houston aren’t open the windows and air out the joint stuff. However, this will be welcome I think after our recent bout of heat and minimal electricity.
We will take what we can get. This will likely also come with continued daily rain chances. Last summer this is not.
Tropics
A quick note on the tropics only to say breathe easy and that it looks quiet for the next 7 to 10 days. We’ll have some additional color at The Eyewall on this later today.
Post Beryl, last week was downright “pleasant” – relatively speaking of course. How does that compare to other post storm experiences? I recall a cold front after Ike which helped cool things off a lot. Was this too a cold front (again, relatively speaking) that helped keep temps not so July-ish? And if so, how in the world are we getting cold fronts in July?
Last week felt “pleasant” for July due to downpour (rain) cooled air as water effectively absorbs heat. “”Cold”” fronts are not TOO uncommon even in the summer, however at this time they are at the brink of death and most either stall or never reach Houston at all, only unstabalizing the atmosphere and upping rain chances. However, with a divided enough atmospheric pattern or other lucky conditions, a “strong” enough cold front CAN deliver decently dry air and (almost) decent nights. This happened in July 2019!
Oh no, it’s gonna rain. Better hope this third-world-country tier power grid can hold.
Only one hundred degree day half way through July in Houston, TX is something to be thankful about!
My heart goes out to those still without power. Everyones situation is different and not everyone can do it but I highly recommend at least a small generator big enough to power a small window unit and keep your refrigerator going. I learned a long time ago that if you rely too heavily on any bureaucracy for anything essential you are going to be let down.
The Valentines freeze in 2021, the derecho earlier this spring and now Beryl are perfect examples of the inadequacy of our grid. We clearly have issues and I would not count on any “fixes” anytime soon.
To steal a line from the Boy Scouts, “Be Prepared”.
When was the hundred degree day? I thought we’ve come close but not actually had an official one yet. I’ve had my eye out for a repeat of 2021.
July 1st officially at IAH
IAH hit exactly 100 on 7/1/24
Finally, a rainy summer after 3 darn years. Let’s hope August doesn’t ruin it again, either way heat or hurricane.
If Beryl didn’t already ruin this summer.
Actually only 2 years. 2021 was a very rainy summer. I remember because it was when I moved into my house and the backyard became a veritable swamp every time it rained. First thing we did was put in a French drain.
So sick of this heat and rain. It’s so gross! In a couple more months, I’ll be back up north enjoying the cold autumn nights sitting around a bonfire. And no more worrying about a trash tier grid and hurricanes ever again.
Mudhole? Slimy? My home this is!
laughing
Enjoy those days in January and February when it’s cold enough to kill you. A bit colder than bon fire weather, and winter storms down power lines and kill people too. No free lunch.
I’d rather sweat and have mild winters. But I work outside a lot. Don’t like having to have special heated gloves with the tips cut off of the thumbs and first two fingers. And a ski mask so your face doesn’t freeze. Heat is uncomfortable and inconvenient, cold will kill you right now. If you live and work inside up north it’s less of a problem, but there’s plenty of A/C here.
It’s your choice. I’ve been up north in the winter, not interested. Showers and dry clothes help a lot here.
We went from global warming to climate change. Can we now replace climate change with cycles? Seems to me that it all goes in cycles.
I’ll be with you, but not so far north, in 18-24 months God willing.
Retirement is looking good….
Because scientific theories can be change with new data; it’s not like that just with climate change. I don’t get why so many people are so against the idea that humans play a part in climate change. Of course, the Earth has always had a changing climate, but human activities are accelerating these changes.
We know pollution can cause all sorts of sickness in humans (cancer, asthma, etc). Why is it so outlandish to think it can also have an impact on our environment?
you cannot reason someone out of a position they did not use reason to get themselves into. Nice of you to try though…
Aww you sweet thing.
Even though the climate is getting warmer overall through time, there will still be cycles in the weather patterns. Natural climate variability will still be a thing. Not every Summer is going to be hell for us. We will still get cold winters periodically but temperatures on average will continue to rise especially during the summer. The hot gulf and excess water vapor release is a good example of that. But the weather itself has been and always will be unpredictable and ever changing regardless of the global thermostat.
At least todays comments regarding climate change are not as toxic as previous ones
Nice more bad news. I seem to be the only one without power and still no estimate. I have pets. Most people/places are welcoming of dogs but not cats. So I have been stuck. I have never gone more than 2 days without power so never cared to get a generator. Now on day 8. It’s too hot and humid.
What I’d like to know is, where is the breeze? It’s been dead still down here near the coast.
WOW! Only upper 80s to near 90!
Stinkin’ hot instead of extremely stinkin’ hot.
Still waiting for October – – – anymore November.
I am tired of all the rain. Everything is rotting. And who knows-I good rain storm can knock the electricity right back out for a day or a week.
An engineer named Casey Jones has been commenting on our power restoration on his youtube channel.
He also has videos about the Lake Livingston dam repairs.
So this weeks weather will be like the Dallas Cowboys, it will peak in the mid 90s
Good one 😅