In brief: Today and Thursday should bring the region our heaviest rains yet this month, with the potential for very high rainfall rates. We are concerned about the potential for street flooding, and have an ongoing Stage 1 flood alert for the entire region. We will monitor today for the need to escalate to Stage 2.
Overall pattern remains wet
The Houston region has experienced rounds of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday of this week, but our confidence is increasing in the heaviest and most widespread rainfall arriving today and Thursday in the current pattern. It looks like the best chances for this will be during the morning hours on both days, so let’s dive in deeper to the forecast.
Wednesday and Thursday
Both of these days look to have a similar setup, and at this point probably will play out similarly. In the pre-dawn hours we will see a mass of storms develop to the west of the Houston metro area, and then this system will move through the city during the morning and early afternoon hours. In addition to the potential for heavy rainfall, especially on Wednesday there is the additional threat of damaging winds in Harris County and surrounding counties within stronger thunderstorms.
This morning, looking at the radar, we can see a large cluster of storms to the southwest of Houston, near Matagorda Bay. High-resolution modeling indicates that this mass of storms will move to the northeast, pushing through the Houston region from 9 am to 3 pm. This is the period when we are most concerned about lightning, street flooding, and damaging winds. In terms of storms, our weather may turn more quiet later this afternoon and evening, but there will still be the possibility of some sporadic flare-ups.
Similarly, on Thursday, a mass of storms will likely congeal west of the Houston area after midnight and then move into the city during the morning hours. Whether this occur before dawn, or during the mid-morning hours, it is difficult to say right now. But the overall threat remains the same: heavy rainfall and flooded streets, with lesser odds of damaging winds and other severe weather.
In terms of rainfall totals, they’re going to vary widely. I believe most parts of Houston and surrounding areas will pick up 1 to 3 inches. However, in these kinds of storms in the past, at this time of year, we’ve seen very high rainfall rates. So it would not surprise me to see locations with 5+ inches of rain over the next two days. Matt and I will be watching closely for the need to escalate to Stage 2 on our flood scale. We’re not there yet, but we’re concerned about some of the high-end rainfall rates. We will, of course, update as needed.
Mostly cloudy skies and rain-cooled air should keep temperatures in check over the next two days. I would anticipate highs in the upper 80s to possibly 90 degrees, with lots of humidity. Outside of thunderstorms winds should be fairly light. Nights will be warm and muggy.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Each of these days will carry a healthy chance of rain showers, probably on the order of 50 percent or higher. But as of now we don’t see storms being quite as organized or intense—think pop-up storms rather than large systems moving through. As a result outdoor activities will probably be hit or miss. Days will see a mix of clouds and sunshine, and high temperatures will probably get into the lower 90s for the most part.
Next week
The pattern described above for this weekend should persist into Tuesday or Wednesday of next week: warm, muggy, with a solid chance of showers but probably nothing on the order of flooding. The second half of the weekend could go two ways: clearing skies and higher temperatures, or an ongoing wet pattern. I just don’t have enough confidence to predict one outcome or another.
A Galveston hurricane?
My daughters inform me that, on TikTok, “everyone” is talking about the possibility of a hurricane or tropical storm hitting Galveston next week. I won’t rule anything out during the Atlantic hurricane season, but suffice it to say in the world I live in, there is no model support for any such idea. So, probably not. I’m sure there is great weather forecasting on TikTok, but apparently the algorithm is feeding slop. Caveat emptor.
In the ‘Overall Pattern Remains Wet’ paragraph – “heaviest and most widespread rainfall arriving today and Wednesday”.
I believe you meant today and Thursday.
Those mistakes I can live with. It is when they predict rain and we get none that bothers me. Their batting average is worse than Jose Abreu’s was last year.
i can never understand people who complain about something they get for free…SMH.
Gee, it’s almost like expecting a pinpoint accurate forecast for an area the size of Connecticut is unrealistic.
@baddanimal We didn’t realize Space City Weather was supposed to be designed as Weather for baddanimal’s exact location. Our bad.
Thanks, fixed!
Ugh. We were hoping today’s storm movement would re-route around Houston. It’s bad enough our Magnolia to VA Med Center is 1.5 hours each way. Stormy rain will no doubt extend travel time for us 👎 Gotta be there before noon, so hopefully the storm movement will slow down.
Now Hurricane forecasting on Tiktok.
The more we learn, the dumber we get.
God have mercy on us all!!!
Some storms went east, some storms went west, and some went over the cuckoo’s nest…
Thoughts on the threat of tornadoes and lake flooding? We are on vacation in Willis, staying in a 2nd floor condo on Lake Conroe and considering returning to Katy early. Thanks.
Lake Conroe should have no issues handling this amount of rain. Current level is 201, ‘flooding possible’ level is 209 feet elevation, and they have plenty of capacity to release water as well, don’t worry about it.
Real-time river, lake, and reservoir readings can be found at HarrisCountyFWS
Thank you!
I predict no severe weather today.
Is there a real reason for this morning’s storms to steadily move across Houston Metro, or could the north-south line of heavy rain become stationary over Metro?
Heh already getting blocked by the Sam Houston gates. Predicting dissipation and disillusion.
you were way off lol
Wrong forecast, I demand a refund!
My neighborhood has had no rain Monday or Tuesday. I’m waiting for some!
“drought begets drought” – Unknown
I think the inverse is also true especially in summer because patterns tend to get stuck more in a pattern. So when it comes to “the second half of next weekend”? I would go with persistence.
Caveat emptor! 🤣
BTW I am unable to see the comments. When I tap, I can only leave a comment.
I get that in the mornings as well, it usually resolves itself by about 10:00
Heavy rain started hitting here in SL around 9:30. And unlike the storms from the last couple days, this one is actually knocking the temperature down… it actually feels cold now inside in the AC! Might have to put a sweatshirt on for a bit.
Lots of close cg lightning in Sweeny. Not a whole lot of rain though.
Tomball (I know, north) heavy rain, lightning, and a light hail for last 25 minutes or so…
Surprised to see a hail report. The only place RadarScope shows it is possibly Pasadena
Possibly Woodlands too. Let us know
Well I went out and cleared the drains in the yard. The older I get the harder it gets, but this one is setting up for a deluge over the next couple of days. Hope I’m wrong (wouldn’t be the first time).