Hold on Houston, we’re almost through with the hard freezes

Summary: Houston faces one more very cold night before we break the back of this Arctic outbreak. Then we’ll warm up for a few days before another front arrives with some slightly less cold air to keep us on the chilly side for the weekend.

Much of the region has warmed above freezing temperatures this afternoon—if only just. Temperatures will peak over the next hour or so before they start dropping by around 4 pm CT. After that we’ll fall quickly this evening as the Sun sets and we see ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Much of the region is likely to be in hard freeze territory, which is to say temperatures below 25 degrees, by midnight. And then, we’re not going to drop much further. I think most of Houston will fall to about the same level they reached on Monday night, basically 17 to 23 degrees across most of our region. The immediate coast, including Galveston, will likely see another light freeze tonight.

Forecast for temperatures at 6 am CT on Wednesday. (Weather Bell)

The good news—and there is some—is that with light winds we’re not going to see quite the same chill tonight. But it will still be very cold by Houston standards. We’ll also warm up much more quickly on Wednesday than today, with the region rising above freezing by 10 am or so in the morning as the Sun comes up. Highs tomorrow are likely going toward the mid- to upper-40s. So not warm, but warm enough after what we’ve experienced.

Overnight lows on Thursday night look fine, in the 40s.

The vast majority of our area roads are looking good, so there are few concerns there. The electricity grid is in good shape as well. So let’s get through this night and then take a breath before the next front on Thursday night. That will probably bring a light freeze back to Houston by Saturday morning.

With this Arctic air heading to the exits after tonight, we’ll resume our once-a-day posting schedule on Wednesday morning. Thank you, as always, for reading and sharing our work.

29 thoughts on “Hold on Houston, we’re almost through with the hard freezes”

  1. How likely is it that Houston will see more Arctic outbreaks before winter is over? Thank you for your excellent forecasting as always.

    • this is a very good question and the answer is not clear but so far the models arent pointing at another front like this, however this is becoming a common event so it may happen again Dec this year or Jan/Feb next year. I believe this event was worst than the last couple of artic blasts (2021, 2022) because we did not get above freezing for so many hours. The cold got to west Houston way before it was forecasted so it really made a mess for people since it was on a monday when the week starts for everyone. My heaters have been going on overload this entire time since sunday night… it’s been really bad. The temps didnt get as low as 2021 but they did get as low as 2022 at 17 degrees in the west part of Houston. Builders, city and everyone needs to insulate homes and pipes for these fronts from now on. The hurricane season is also going to get bad. Im preparing for another Harvey and another drought. Climate change is making these extreme events more frequent and more intense.

      • This one is nothing compared 2021. Temperatures were colder, we had sub freezing temperatures for many more hours and we had much more precipitation. I remember breaking the ice on water troughs several times a day for at least three days. 2022 was about the same as what we are going through now.

  2. Thank YOU and your team for staying on top of this event and all others that come our way. You are the BEST!!

  3. Thanks to all of you for keeping us so well informed. We are all in your debt. Hope you had a great Marathon!

  4. Don’t worry winter haters, the last weeks of January look downright balmy compared to this. Just like Cancun…

  6. What area is Kingwood classed as in these reports? I’m thinking not North as I am guessing that is the woodlands and above. Houston = inside the beltway? Just not sure what we are. Lol

  7. I remember I started following you guys during Harvey, the Tv. News stressed me out so bad back then. So ever since I follow you guys. I feel relaxed and I know you guys have our backs. Thank you a million !

  11. Thank you for keeping us informed. We know you have more to do than just Space City Weather and appreciate the time you both dedicate to keeping us safe and informed.

  16. Thank you so much for keeping us updated as the days progress. It’s very helpful and appreciated.

  17. Loved the 2 a days…You have set a high bar. Now whenever there is a big weather events. can we count on you for 2 a days?

    • These folks always do 2 a days when situations like this arise, including weekends and holidays. Welcome to the family! We only strive to be worthy…😉

  19. You guys are awesome! We appreciate your forecasts and personal attention to keep us updated so often throughout first freeze of 2024!

  20. Guys thanks a lot for guiding us through this aberration. We know it takes a lot of effort to post multiple bulletins and we appreciate it. Our household suffered major damage in the 2021 event so we have been particularly grateful for the updates and coaching.

  21. Your work is so valuable to those of us just trying to figure out how to prepare and keep our families safe. Thank you for being a resource and for providing additional resources (like road closure and ERCOT info) to help us navigate these challenges. I am so grateful for your knowledge and the effort you put in to sharing information with the rest of us.

  24. Thanks so much for keeping us informed, seriously! My family and I looked forward to each SCW output!

    P.S. It was nice mtg you both at Fall Day. I’m the guy that was getting clarification on precipitation forecast %, what it means and how it’s derived. (I thought this to be a derivative of historical aggregated weather data aligned to the coming day’s parameters…)

    Tim

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