Yesterday was a bonafide scorcher for Houston, with another 98° day. Really, it was a scorcher almost everywhere in the Eastern and Central U.S. We’re squished under a heat dome here in Texas. Fortunately for us, the heat dome will begin to break down, or at least move around enough this weekend to open the Gulf back up a bit for some showers. It’s going to be hot, but hopefully some of us see a little relief at least.
WEEKEND
Rain chances will still be on the lower side today, with most activity likely south or east of Houston (most, but not exactly all). The majority of the area should stay dry and hot and humid, but rain chances aren’t quite zero. As we go into Saturday and Sunday, a surge of precipitable water, not too uncommon for this time of year, will come our way from the south and east.
This sets the stage for more “juice” available to fuel daytime storms. So I think coverage of thunderstorms on both weekend days will be more than we see today. Think about what happened on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday of this past week, and I think that’s a reasonable analog case to what we see this weekend: A scattering of storms that dumps on a few folks, but leaves others high and dry.
Temperatures this weekend will be unpleasant, but heat should peak today or Saturday in most spots. More mid to upper 90s. Sunday will be a couple ticks cooler.
Here’s your travel forecast for the weekend:
NEXT WEEK
No changes in thinking for next week: As the upper level ridge (the former heat dome) strengthens and expands in the Desert Southwest next week, it may begin to exert more influence on Texas again. This would lead to another few days of diminished storm chances and very hot weather. Again, we really could use some widespread rain. The list of burn bans across Texas is only expanding, and whatever goodwill bought from spring rains is now gone (other than reservoir levels, which are still in pretty solid shape).
Watch the Texas moisture surplus evaporate (also note FL/Southeast and the Northeast). pic.twitter.com/K5efT8prwW
— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) July 21, 2016
Rain wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world right now, especially north and east of Houston. This week was an okay start, but we could use some more. Stay tuned.
Posted by Matt at 6:10 AM