Houston faces warmer than normal conditions for the rest of July; and is a tropical disturbance forming in the Gulf?

In brief: Today’s post discusses today’s rain chances, and what kind of weather we can look forward to for the remainder of July. We also address the potential for a tropical disturbance to develop in the northern Gulf this week.

July has been mild so far

Don’t look now, but July is almost half over. Whether that is worth celebrating or mourning depends on one’s perspective. However, the next six weeks are typically the hottest period of the year in Houston. After a relatively mild start to the month so far—a majority of days have recorded highs of 95 degrees or below, the thermostat is going up. I think, from this point on for the remainder of July, we can expect the majority of days to reach 95 degrees or higher in Houston and for locations away from the coast. To be clear I don’t see a long string of 100 degree days. But we’ve reached peak summer, and it is going to feel like this outside.

Monday

With a fair amount of atmospheric moisture and lingering low pressure, Houston will see a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms again today. Like for much of this past weekend, chances will be higher along and north of Interstate 10, but the entire region will at least have the possibility of seeing some storms. Once again, these showers will be decidedly hit or miss, with the heaviest hit areas picking up 1 to 2 inches of rain, and perhaps half the region seeing no precipitation at all. Skies will otherwise be partly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper 90s. Lows will fall into the upper 70s.

Tuesday

Rain chances drop back into the 20 to 30 percent range, with any showers likely to develop during the afternoon hours. Expect highs in the mid-90s with mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday and Thursday

High pressure will likely hold sway during the middle of the week, and this should yield a pair of sunny days with highs in the mid-90s. With dewpoints in the 70s it will feel plenty humid outside, in case you were concerned about the air drying out. (I think this counts as gallows humor in Houston). Anyway, it’s gonna be summer sticky like always in Houston.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Our weather toward the weekend may be influenced by a surge of tropical moisture (more on this below), but how precisely this will impact us remains to be seen. I think we’ll see a decent to healthy (30 to 50 percent) chance of showers on Friday, and perhaps some partly to mostly cloudy skies. This might cool highs off into the lower 90s. How long this cloud cover lingers into the weekend is not clear, but my guess is that most of Saturday and Sunday are probably mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances will be lower.

Next week

For now, most of next week looks sunny and hot, with highs in the mid-90s.

Tropics

My kids came home on Sunday evening and asked, “When’s the hurricane coming, dad?” This is how I know that certain social media out there are lighting up with rumors and discussion about a tropical disturbance that may develop into the northern Gulf later this week. This is an old frontal system that recently moved off the continental United States into the Atlantic Ocean, and will track across Florida in the next day or two. By Wednesday some sort of low pressure system should be in the northern Gulf, moving westward. So what happens after this?

Our guidance is pretty split. Some of our best models don’t develop it at all beyond a tropical disturbance, whereas some of other models (particularly AI-based guidance) is a little more bullish in developing a tropical depression or tropical storm. If that happens, the most likely outcome is that this tropical system plows into southern Louisiana, bringing a high chance of rain there during the second half of this week.

As for Texas in general, and Houston in particular, most likely the major effects (if any) from this system will remain east of our region. However, with the disturbance not even developed, and potential impacts three to five days away, there is not much I’m willing to say for certain. We’ll continue to watch it, but our overall concern level is quite low at this time.