As Eric has been describing much of this week, August is most certainly a month in Houston you just survive, and perhaps you use the time to dream about how jealous our cohorts in the Northern U.S. will be come November through March (as a transplant, I most certainly can confirm they’re jealous).
Continued hot the next few days, with just a few storm chances, mainly at the coast. I don’t see a lot of variation in the weather through the weekend: High temperatures should be mid to upper 90s and low temperatures in the upper 70s, perhaps low 80s at the coast. Rain chances should be about 5-10% inland, maybe 10-20% at the coast each day. We have a few showers near the coast already this morning, so look for those to continue in spots, perhaps diminishing in coverage a little through the weekend. It looks like a mostly decent weekend for outdoor plans if you can take the heat and risk of a quick passing downpour.
Traveling? Well, it doesn’t look much cooler elsewhere.
NEXT WEEK
I wanted to talk briefly about an item of interest next week on the Gulf Coast. The weather pattern setting up is one that’s interesting, though not for Texas. There is a weak upper level low that will form over Florida this weekend and backpedal into the northeast Gulf Monday and Tuesday. With a strong upper ridge over Texas, not willing to give up much ground, the low in the northeast Gulf looks to get trapped for a few days. What this means is multiple days of heavy rain and storms for areas between about Baton Rouge, LA and parts of Florida (possibly from Tampa north around the Big Bend into the Panhandle).
There is a bit of a European model vs. GFS model battle setting up, where the GFS isn’t quite as aggressive with the rainfall totals. That says a lot, given the GFS forecast below is very impressive. Regardless of exactly how things transpire there is growing confidence in a major rain event becoming possible in far Eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and western Florida, especially right along the coast. If you have travel plans that way next week, keep that in mind and pack an umbrella.
For Houston? No impacts from this system are expected. There is a slight chance that if the system comes a little further west than expected slightly drier northerly flow over East Texas around the back side of it could help give temperature a little added boost that we really don’t need. Doubtful, but a low end possibility. And so it goes…
Posted at 6:25 AM by Matt
psst, did you mean “hurtles” in the title? 🙂
Thanks to Eric for fixing that while I was at work today…ugh. I pride myself on trying to have good grammar/spelling. Alas, it happens. Thanks for the correction!
Matt,
That GIF seems to show the remnants of Earl moving out into the eastern Pacific, crossing Baja, and moving into Mexico toward west Texas. I know it’s a long way out, but do you see any chance that happens and brings rain to west or even central Texas? Or will the high pressure hold firm?
I suppose it’s possible. I did notice models started to get a bit excited on West Texas rain chances last night and again today. But honestly, I don’t see it being a huge deal. If anything, it will help enhance some monsoon storms over the Desert Southwest, at times getting into West Texas. But I don’t think it amounts to a major story, though it could ease developing drought conditions in spots.
Only 7 Thursdays away from start of Fall. Of course sometimes that doesn’t mean squat in Houston, but we can dream right?